C Michael Rasmussen - Tri-City Americans, WHL (2017, 9th, DET)

[Aceboogie]

What player available at #9 in this draft did not have any red flags or serious, serious questions in terms of likelihood to ever reach the NHL or to be an impact player?

Personally I'm pretty optimistic because literally the only negative people can seem to agree on is that he had bad 5v5 numbers.

Nearly everyone does, these are just some of his red flags. Red flags are not exclusive to him, every player in this draft including top 2 have red flags

 

[Aceboogie]

On the surface, that looks concerning. However I would need more context to actually make sense of it. Did he play with any good goalscorers? Was his on-ice sh% very low? Was his role such that it lead to less assists (if he was often put as the net-front guy it would explain a lot)? Heck, was the team as a whole even good at ES?

You are 100% correct in asking these what ifs, but ill play devils advocate: What if his PP goals were inflated due to high PP shooting % and PP on ice shooting %? PP % are much more volatile and prone to swings in shooting % than 5v5 stats are (due to lower sample size). He banked most his points on PP but what if this was just a really hot/lucky PP this year

I think the net front guy idea makes things even worse for him. If he was a net front guy at evens then you kind of worry about how the coach views him. Net front guys mostly have one specific skill set and typically get drafted in later rounds. Also, net front guys on the PP are mainly the beneficiaries of a hot PP, rather that the players making that PP happen. They mostly cash in on those tap ins in front.

 

[Birko19]

I think the net front guy idea makes things even worse for him. If he was a net front guy at evens then you kind of worry about how the coach views him. Net front guys mostly have one specific skill set and typically get drafted in later rounds. Also, net front guys on the PP are mainly the beneficiaries of a hot PP, rather that the players making that PP happen. They mostly cash in on those tap ins in front.

If Rasmussen turns out to be as good as Holmstrom in front of the net, I would be very happy about this pick. People are underrating net presence big time, when in reality it's part of what makes a PP potent.

 

[Aceboogie]

If Rasmussen turns out to be as good as Holmstrom in front of the net, I would be very happy about this pick. People are underrating net presence big time, when in reality it's part of what makes a PP potent.

Unquestionably. Net front presence do add value to a PP in the NHL. The issue is, is the many of the net front presence guys in the NHL were drafted in later rounds, this is where you find those niche guys. For example, Holmstrom was a 10th round pick. But if you are just a net front presence guy in junior your skills are so, so limited. You want to draft those dynamic skillsets that can offer many good things, because when you get to the NHL youll see different aspects of your game not work, so you have to change it up. If you only offer limited skills, you put yourself at risk of being obsolete if that one skill set doesn't transfer. Im just talking in general tho because I havent watched him all that much and just going of reports + what his stats are saying

There is exmaples like Corey Perry being a elite net front presence and drafted in first round. But even he offered a ton in junior

Even though Ive commented a good amount Rasmussen, I dont want come across as writing him totally off. He has as much upside/risk as other guys drafted around him. Hes just a very interesting test case fo rme because of his very unusual point totals. I dont know if well ever see a split between PP and 5x5 like his for a 1st rounder for a while. Hell be an interesting draft and follow

For the record, I was very critical of the Carlo pick (before the draft) because he was a low scoring CHL D and he seems to have worked out very well. So maybe Rasmussen will be the same

 

[Pavels Dog]

The team overall scored fine outside of the PP. They were 5th in PP goals and 6th in total goals.

His most common linemates appear to be Sandhu and Lukin who were decent scorers at 5v5 and don't have as big splits at Rasmussen. Rasmussen got 35% of his points at 5v5, while Sandhu got 49% and Lukin got 60%. Valimaki was his 3rd most common teammate and he did quite well at 5v5 in regards to goals.

Now, due to Rasmussen missing 22 games, to be accurate you'd have to look at just the scoring distribution of the team in those 50 games. Could be a case of haywire oiSH%. But looking quickly at the numbers, the splits affected him more than it did his teammates. His numbers also weren't lopsided last year as he had more non-pp points than pp-points.

Thanks. The bolded seems pretty important.

I think the net front guy idea makes things even worse for him. If he was a net front guy at evens then you kind of worry about how the coach views him. Net front guys mostly have one specific skill set and typically get drafted in later rounds.

I don't necessarily think having a certain role on a team at age 17 means it's all he can do. There has to be reason he was always ranked as a top 10-15 prospect instead of as a late rounder, and I doubt it's all because of size. Big guys are often late bloomers too, so while his size and net-front presence could be his biggest weapon in juniors, other tools could start becoming more apparent as time goes on.

 

[Aceboogie]

Thanks. The bolded seems pretty important.


I don't necessarily think having a certain role on a team at age 17 means it's all he can do. There has to be reason he was always ranked as a top 10-15 prospect instead of as a late rounder, and I doubt it's all because of size. Big guys are often late bloomers too, so while his size and net-front presence could be his biggest weapon in juniors, other tools could start becoming more apparent as time goes on.

It is true that bigger guys develop later, but its also true bigger/more developed players in junior have a much easier time pushing around smaller defenders in CHL and easier time scoring goals at that level.

I think the line of thinking with "bigger guys take longer to develop" has more to do with 17/18 year olds having sudden growth spurts then taking 3/4 years to gain weight and get used to their body (Parayko for example). Wheres if you have been tall and heavier since you were 14/15/16 then you alreayd had that time to get used to bigger frame and utlizie fully in junior. But then run into troubles in pro when opposition gets bigger

Rasmussen is a intriguing prospect, very polarizing. He, along with Makar, will be fun to follow to see how they do. Will confirm/test/challenge alot of theories on prospects

 

[Dotter]

All the concerns I had about Rasmussen was created when I read about him on this forum and various websites. All those concerns were put to rest when I actually got to see him play. Thanks to someone on the DRWs boards who created a video of Rasmussen's ice time. Not just highlights, but every shift-by-shift.

He looks like a good hockey player and often looked like the best player on the ice. The player people described on this forum was not the player I watched. There's a reason why he was selected top 10 in the draft. I think his ceiling is way higher than many here give him credit for.

Had I just went by his stats and not seen him actually play, then maybe there would be concerns. But thankfully someone compiled tape on him and I was impressed with him every shift. I haven't been this excited since the Anthony Mantha draft.

 

[lawrence]

All the concerns I had about Rasmussen was created when I read about him on this forum and various websites. All those concerns were put to rest when I actually got to see him play. Thanks to someone on the DRWs boards who created a video of Rasmussen's ice time. Not just highlights, but every shift-by-shift.

He looks like a good hockey player and often looked like the best player on the ice. The player people described on this forum was not the player I watched. There's a reason why he was selected top 10 in the draft. I think his ceiling is way higher than many here give him credit for.

Had I just went by his stats and not seen him actually play, then maybe there would be concerns. But thankfully someone compiled tape on him and I was impressed with him every shift. I haven't been this excited since the Anthony Mantha draft.

Sometimes you have to ignore the wannabe scouts on message forums.

Obviously something wasn't checking out when other source rankings have him pretty high, multiple sources had him ranked very high, even the Canucks had him ranked pretty high. Just trust your team. They've done their homework.

 

[Tatar Shots]

That may have led to Holland getting more viewings. But, teams scouts don't tend to live in the city their team plays in. Most teams have a bunch of scouts who live in Ontario, and I would guess a decent amount of teams head scout live there. A lot of scouts live in area's where they can cover a lot of ground. For this, a lot of scouts live near Ottawa where they can easily cover Q and the O. Some guys live near Ann Arbour, where they can easily cover the OHL, USHL, NCHC, Notre Dame, USNTDP and Big 10 hockey. I don't think the proximity of Detroit to Windsor really gave them more viewings than other teams due to this.

I'm not high on Rasmussen, his lack of production at 5v5 I think is a serious red flag, especially the lack of primary assists. But, I don't think he was over drafted relative to where other places had him.

Edit: Judging from this write up on the Wings website, it would appear that their head guy is based out of Vernon, BC. There other top guy is based out of Kelowna.

https://www.nhl.com/redwings/team/tyler-wright

Speaking of scouts, Tyler Wright should probably get a little benefit of the doubt with the draft history of teams that he has been involved with. Since he joined Columbus this is his draft history when his team used their 1st selection of the draft on a forward.

2008: Nikita Filatov
2010: Ryan Johansen
2011: Boone Jenner
2013: Alex Wennberg
2014: Dylan Larkin
2015: Evgeny Svechnikov
2017: Michael Rasmussen

Who knows how much input Wright had in each pick, but this is a very impressive list.

 

[93LEAFS]

Speaking of scouts, Tyler Wright should probably get a little benefit of the doubt with the draft history of teams that he has been involved with. Since he joined Columbus this is his draft history when his team used their 1st selection of the draft on a forward.

2008: Nikita Filatov
2010: Ryan Johansen
2011: Boone Jenner
2013: Alex Wennberg
2014: Dylan Larkin
2015: Evgeny Svechnikov
2017: Michael Rasmussen

Who knows how much input Wright had in each pick, but this is a very impressive list.

Yeah, up until 2011-12 Elite has him listed as a development coach but then he was immediately promoted to Director of Amateur Scouting for Columbus, which seems like a massive jump. Maybe he was also an amateur scout on the side.

I would assume he had a major hand in Rasmussen and Cholowski as they were both from his region and he was the head scout at the time.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Yeah, up until 2011-12 Elite has him listed as a development coach but then he was immediately promoted to Director of Amateur Scouting for Columbus, which seems like a massive jump. Maybe he was also an amateur scout on the side.

I would assume he had a major hand in Rasmussen and Cholowski as they were both from his region and he was the head scout at the time.

He also gave the most ecstatic praise I've seen of a prospect in Larkin in 2014. So while I'm not a fan of the pick, the track record looks good.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Speaking of scouts, Tyler Wright should probably get a little benefit of the doubt with the draft history of teams that he has been involved with. Since he joined Columbus this is his draft history when his team used their 1st selection of the draft on a forward.

2008: Nikita Filatov
2010: Ryan Johansen
2011: Boone Jenner
2013: Alex Wennberg
2014: Dylan Larkin
2015: Evgeny Svechnikov
2017: Michael Rasmussen

Who knows how much input Wright had in each pick, but this is a very impressive list.

Is it really though? Like, it's fine, but it's not spectacular.

 

[newfy]

Is it really though? Like, it's fine, but it's not spectacular.

For where those guys were picked thats a pretty good list, I think you would be hard pressed finding one much better in the league.

Jenner second round already has a 30 goal season, Larkin in 2 seasons already has a 23 goal season as a mid first, Wennberg mid first, 3rd season had 59 points this year. Its a list thats worth giving him the benefit of the doubt for the time being instead of listening to people who watch stats and have never watched him play on a forum. Theres a reason every major scouting service had Rasmussen as a consensus top 10 pick pretty much this year. I would wager they saw something the "scouts" on HF didnt

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

For where those guys were picked thats a pretty good list, I think you would be hard pressed finding one much better in the league.

Jenner second round already has a 30 goal season, Larkin in 2 seasons already has a 23 goal season as a mid first, Wennberg mid first, 3rd season had 59 points this year. Its a list thats worth giving him the benefit of the doubt for the time being instead of listening to people who watch stats and have never watched him play on a forum. Theres a reason every major scouting service had Rasmussen as a consensus top 10 pick pretty much this year. I would wager they saw something the "scouts" on HF didnt

I'd need to look into the first point, but I'm sure there's plenty that are better. To the second point, it's a weird appeal to authority to assume that scouts are infallible when plenty of consensus top ten players bust or underperform relative to their draft position almost every draft. The analytics don't reflect positively on Rasmussen, his ceiling isn't promising, and he seems like was held in high regard strictly because of his size and point totals. There's plenty of reason to be lukewarm on this pick, and I don't think Wright's record offers any practical assurance.

 

[Frk It]

Theres a reason every major scouting service had Rasmussen as a consensus top 10 pick pretty much this year. I would wager they saw something the "scouts" on HF didnt

Well, not exactly. Hockeyprospect.com had him at #15, and their Black Book product is one of the most respected draft publications out there. Future Considerations had him at #16.

 

[newfy]

Has 3 goals in 4 preseason games and looks really good out there. Holland has said hes on the bubble to make the team right now na doculd actually stay with Detroit. If he tays with Detroit I doubt its past 9 games but if Holland is considering keeping him up he must look pretty good.

I could see him playing 9 games with Detroit then back to junior to captain tri city, hopefully play world juniors (would be surprised if he doesnt make it) and dominate in the WHL. Then next year get a real look to start the year with the Red Wings. I think a lot of the wings fans that really hated the pick have started to change their tune after seeing him in preseason

 

[Petes2424]

This kid's performance in the preseason should prove to everyone, you can't put so much weight into analytics when judging a Jr player. There's simply to many variables.

The hate on this kid was ridiculous on these boards. Mostly coming from people who never seen him play.

Looks like Detroit has one really good young player with the size and skill you just can't teach.

We shall see where he ultimately ends up over his career but out of all top 10 picks, he's been as good as any of them, minus Nico, and far ahead of many.

Best overall draft year performances throughout camp go to Rasmussen, Hischier and Yamamoto. There's a lot of teams who might end up kicking themselves who aren't named the Devils when it comes to the other two guys.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

No matter your thoughts on the pick (I still liked a few other guys) 4 goals in 4 preseason games is impressive, especially since they were all "his game". He is already stronger than 80-90% of NHL defenseman as a teenager, and knows what his role is.

I don't see him ever being a 70 point guy, but he's ahead of most his age defensively, better than I thought on faceoffs, and most importantly SCORES GOALS. If the Wings come out of this with a Nick Bjugstad clone (the comparison I gave him when he was drafted) I will be happy. A lot of Anders Lee and Bjugstad in his game. Can see him being a consistant 25-20-45 guy for a long time.

 

[Dominance]

No matter your thoughts on the pick (I still liked a few other guys) 4 goals in 4 preseason games is impressive, especially since they were all "his game". He is already stronger than 80-90% of NHL defenseman as a teenager, and knows what his role is.

I don't see him ever being a 70 point guy, but he's ahead of most his age defensively, better than I thought on faceoffs, and most importantly SCORES GOALS. If the Wings come out of this with a Nick Bjugstad clone (the comparison I gave him when he was drafted) I will be happy. A lot of Anders Lee and Bjugstad in his game. Can see him being a consistant 25-20-45 guy for a long time.

To add to this, the guy seems like an ultra-safe pick. I don't know any stats, but it seems like he was pretty good on the draws already, and his IQ at both ends is great. Moves very well for a big guy, too, and as mentioned, he has a nose for the net and great strength already. Seems like nothing short of injuries would cut his floor below a very good 3C.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

he looked good tonight

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Has he scored 5v5? That was always the issue for me with him pre draft.

Edit: Looked it up myself, 1 5v5 goal. 6 shots, 7 iCF, 44 CF% in 4 pre season games. Small sample size obviously so grains of salt and all that.

 

[Dotter]

He was also good at TC camp up north. He showed off some of his playmaking abilities that people said he does't have. He seems like a well rounded player overall, and is only going to get stronger and better. I like this pick.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Anybody watch him regularly that has an update on how well (Or bad) he's doing?

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Still scores most of his points on the PP, on a positive note most (all last i checked) of his 5v5 points have been primary points.

 

[NarcoPolo]

For a big man he plays I'd like to see him not divert to the perimeter as much. With his skill, size and strength he can be hard to handle if he drove the middle of the ice more.