Well if teams agree with Button's view (not because they listened to him but because they see what he sees)--then all the draft ranking orgs who just couldn't "rise" Jankowski 's upside projection to as high as 14 or anywhere near it because of the very low level of competitiion he faced,his 'rawness' in not yet understanding what it takes to consistently work hard every shift,or his learning curve still to come to master correct positional play --who just couldn't use this kid's skill.size,atheleticism raw ability to project as a future NHL first line centre and so worthy of going in the top half of round one (or anywhere near it) but instead to relegate to a late round one/early round two status at best--then all these draftranking orgs that under-ranked Jankowski will look stupid ....BUTTON is ranking
on upside projection to highest ceiling--NOT on safest bet to make it to a top six forward albeit only on the 2nd line..
THis distinction --why he ranks Grigoenko only at #20 --is that he can't project grigorenko into a 1st line centre as his highest NHL ceiling-he only sees 2nd line centre--but he sees Jankowski-IF hee makes it -as reaching a "special" first line NHL centre role ...THUS Grigorenko is the safer bet on just "making it" but with a lower ceiling.
Perhaps FAKSA is on the cusp of either 1st or 2nd line centre ceiling because Button has him 17th --somewhere in between Jankowski and Grigorenko ....I guess that makes TOMAS HERTL (#22 on button's list) only with a 2nd line centre ceiling..
HOWEVER consider the RISK and "VALUE" in forgetting BPA ranking and instead using ROLE NEEDS and RISK to just getting into that role..
iF seen that way--JANKOWSKI is a far riskier pick than the more certain (because of better competition) assessments of Faksa,Grigorenko and Hertl..
ON this basis of risk based on the competition level probably HERTL should be ahead of both Grigorenko and Faksa since they only played Jr.--hERTL played against men in the cCzech extraliga and was still one of the top scorers on his team 12g 13a in 38GP AND he outscored Faksa (3g 2a to Faksa's 2 goals only an no assists) and tied Grigorenko in points with 5 each -though he had 3 goals to Grigorenko only getting 2 goals--they tied in =/- at =2 each (Faksa was -3) .....so when you add up everything shouldn't HERTL be ranked AHEAD of FAKSA and GRIGORENKO?
WELL maybe BUTTON just cannot project HERTL to a 1st line centre spot as an NHL'er though he maybe be the best of the 3 (with Faksa and Grigorenko) as 2nd line centre--BUT maybe BUTTON still thinks faksa has a remote possibility of being a 1st line centre--and while Grigorenko he thinks not--maybe he just cannot lower him below HERTL because NOBODY -I mean nobody has HERTL above Grigorenko no matter what you think their ceilings are..
So this brings us to a fascinating topic:
IF CHICAGO decidesnot to take a goalie OR that decision is removed because as Button ranks and if NHL teams agree--BOTH SUBBAN and VASILVSKI are off the board before #18 when Chicago picks --THEN:
IF no NHL team is willing to have JANKOWSKI on their ranking list above #19..
IF other NHL teams picking before Chicago ALL agree Grigorenko only has 2nd line centre ceiling and is not worthy of going in the top 2/3rd of round one ...
AND IF ALL other NHL teams agree that a conensus on HERTL is "ONLY" 22-30 ..
AND IF ALL other NHL teams drafting before Chicago have FAKSA ranked above #18
THEN: CHICAGO will get a choice of selecting among JANKOWSKI,GRIGORENKO,and HERTL as another "candidate" in their long search for the proverbial 2nd line centre "solution" (long-term) albeit not yet arriving for a few years -but SO WHAT? Toews is only 24 --so even if it takes 3-4 years for the long-term 2nd line centre solution to FINALLY arrive --Toews as first line centre will only be entering his prme years at 27-28 --it willbe perfection! IT could happen SOONER with Grigorenko or Hertl -only Jankowski will take longer...
Realistcally though- I think even if Button is correct --and both Grigorenko and Hertl only have 2nd line centre ceilings as NHL'ers ---that just too many ranking orgs have Grigoenko still in the top ten -some even top 5 ..and even others that have downgraded him a bit have not gone off the deep end all the way down to #20 -or even #18 where CHI picks.. SO --except for the KHL factor issue -I cannot see 17 teams all passing on Grigorenko..but if they did WHAT WOULD CHICAGO DO?
1. consider Grigorenko has been top 2-4 nearly all year in the "conensus" before apparently "falling" late in the year... BUT consider he was later diagnosed with MONO -so if the late fall to some raised red flags -THERE WAS A VALID REASON!
2. consider CHI's terrible history with Russkie draft picks.. CHI is not like wASH a "russian shop" ..friendly to Russians.and IF a Russian "fails" to live up to his hype---CHI fans more than any others will be merciless in running the guy out of town pronto.. Too many Blackhawks fans will not give Russians the leeway to develop and be patient with them for a long enough time...SO given this bad history --eVEN IF GRIGORENKO was on the board still at #18 --CHI would be tempting fate one more time with a Russian first rounder? IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT --if the kid Fails--for CERTAIN ,STAN BOWMAN willget crucified and run out of town. They could trade dOWN a few spots and if JANKOWSKI and HERTL were still on the board still get one of them ..
3. THE KHL factor--well CHI is not expecting an arrival immediately...Maybe they will wait 3-4 years -so whether itis Jankowski ,Hertl or Grigorenko it doesn't matter where they play in the meantime--so this issue is a non-factor ...
THEREFORE I think the history with russian first rounders failing in Chicago is the biggest reasdon they WOULD NOT AKE GRIGORENKO..
THAT means IF JANKOWSKI and HERTL are both still on the board at #18 (And both Subban and Vasilevski off before CHI picks) THEN they must make a choice between JANKOWSKI's higher ceiling of talent and specialness or HERTL's safer projection as aa more certain at least 2nd line centre ....WHAT does CHI need? NOT a first line centre (they have Toews) ...so on RISK they probably take Hertl who fits like a glove... ON POTENTIAL HIGHER REWARD even though he only gets to be 2nd line centre-they GAMBLE ON JANKOWSKI "making it" to the NHL..
IF JANKOWSKI makes it--you get a Crosby--MALKIN (not in style or pomts performance ) situation of 2 "premier" first line centres playing on the same team though one has to centre the 2nd line...SO envisaging that STRUCTURE for the lines CHI gambles on JANKOWSKI "making it" even though he must play 2nd fiddle to Toews..
OR they play it SAFER..not wanting to be greedy ---so they take HERTL...
Again --HERTL outshone Faksa at the world Jrs (5pts to 2, out goaled him3 to 2,tied Grigorenko in points,tied Grigorenko in +/- at +2,outgoaled him 3 to 2 --AND was the only one of the 3 above 50% in face-offs (he got 52.86% wins on draws)...
In short acase SHOULD BE MADE that TOMAS HERTL "NOW" is a better prospect than either Faksa or Grigorenko but maybe some scouts think they have better upside..but it is not Hertl's fault he outshone them to this point..
ANd who says the scouts are correct on that upside? there is no guarantee he won't be the best nHL pro among all 4 of these centres!
THis is supposed to be a "weak draft" of skilled forwards....Yet playing on not the deepest of teams,proving himself agaimst both MEN and his peer group of World jrs...somehow TOMAS HERTL has shone brightly against the best of competion a first time draft eligible could face-and YET in a weak draft of forwards he somehow GETS NO RESPECT-or at least NOT ENOUGH RESPECT..
SO if JANKOWSKI is this draft's "WILDCARD" as is GRIGORENKO too (for different reasons) ---HERTL is this draft's RODNEY DANGERFIELD....YET if we look 3-4 years down the road -and IF all 4 of them "ONLY" make it to fill an NHL 2nd line centre spot -then my hunch is that HERTL willbe the best of them in that role....and if one of the 3 others (Faksa,Grigorenko, Jankowski) realizes the higher ceiling and prestige of 1st line centre "superstardom" --then SO WHAT? THey were never going to diplace Toews in Chicago on the first lineanyway...
SO considering role need ,safeness of the bet on the pick,overall bag of qualities
and other "issues" ---I keep coming back to HERTL as being the best choice CHI could make at #18 UNLESS:
ONE of SUBBAN or VASLILVSKI remains for selection at #18>
IF it was SUBBAN --given CHI's pipeline need for a potential #1 starting NHL goalie of the future- I think they would grab him ahead of a 2nd line centre "target"...
HOWEVER I'd be shocked if he lasted to #18... I think he goes top ten..if not #8 as BUTTON ranks him ,then at #10 (IF TB keepstheir pick) -even if TB tradesthe pick to VAN for LUONGO in some package deal---some other team between 11-17 will probably grab him off ....VASILEVSKI cold still be there
at #18 --especially if Subban makes it past #10... THEN you stil lhave the KHL risks and the bad CHI experience with russians (EXCEPT for Russian goalies --because Khabibulin did give CHi some good goaltending )--so in the case of goalie instead of positionplayer ,I could see CHI risking on Vasilevski --IF they see him as a projectable #1 NHl goalie one day...He looked that part at the World Jrs (though he cracked in the final games of the tornament and even got yanked in one of them-this was after getting bombarded with over 50 shots each time-- ANY GOALIE WILLCRACK with that much ribber showering him...The point is without him the Russkies had no business not getting eliminated -he looked like a potential franchise NHl goalie..BUT with a weaker eam at the World U-18's he was ok but not such a "wall" --2 below par games during the tournament letting in 4 goals in each ---in a loss to Germany the 1st time Russia played them (russia won the2ndtime they played Germany) and in a loss to Canada...8 goals on atotal of 57 shots combined in these 2 loss games where he was no wall at all--so that is no 50 shot barrage in a single game--indicating maybe he is not so "special" after all?
SO still lots of risk with Vasilevski considering everything..
IN summary -id it was me as GM-I probably take SUBBAN at #18 if he miraculously is still there (doubt it)--otherwise I take HERTL (I have never seen Jankowski so I have only Button's reports an rankings to go on )--I KNOW JANKOWSKI may have greater upside and might be really special --but I did see Hertl-liked what i saw--- I do value also that he shone both against MEN in the top Czech Men's league andagainst top Jrs at the World Jrs. ---that he does a lot of things well --2 way game--face-offs,good shot --lots of stuff --so EVEN IF he has less upside yet to develop as others might-what he is now is very impressibe--good size 6'2 198 -- just mystified that in a weak draft of scoring forward talent that he is not ranked a lot higher-he SHOULD BE --but he gets no respect...Anyway he looks the the safest,least issued ,most well rounded and perfect 2nd line centre "target" i can find for the Hawks in this draft....I value too that his coach (Vladimir Ruzicka )for his Czech team says he loves howthis kid plays ...stack it all together and i'd be thrilled if STANBO
agrees with me and takes him (But STANBO is in lovewith his vaunted pipeline centres MCNEILL,DANUALT and K.HAYES _--having seen them and HERTL --my own vaunted scouting prowess screams to me that HERTL is better than they are -by a huge degree ---they may be JARRET STOLL's in the case of MCNEILL or K. HAYES --but i remind all that L.A. moved STOLL to line #3 omce they got JEFF CARTER-hich says a lot about the ceiling for line 2 centres running a huge gap from mediocre to
structural difference-maker ....in other words I am not so thrilled at the ceiling for MCNEILL,DANAULT and K. HAYES as the 2nd line "saviour" as is STANBO and his group of yes-men in the hype dept...They have a long way to improve to convince me they will scare any opponent in that significant role...MAYBE STOLL -like 3rd line centres for the 2 bigger ones;maybe some ANTON VERMETTE-like 2nd line stuff from DANAULT-but nothing to really MAKE THE TOP 2 LINE STRUCTURES A PROPER THREAT to opponents.. HOWEVER i can see that final goal of the proper type and fit
in that role with HERTL ....perhaps just my hunch..perhaps our vaunted professional paid scouts know better than me,but I'll stick with my guns ..lets look 3-4 years down theline and see who got it right.
YET if STANBO loves his 3 pipeline future "solutions" to the 2nd line "problem" at centre -maybe he forces himself not to take a centre again.. bypasses the OPPORTUNITY to solve the problem and outsmarts himself by taking a D-man or winger.
IF a winger--IF TOMAS WILSON is still there at #18-- I can't complain if he takes him even though he won't score much... BOTTOM 2 line winger but safe to "make it" in a needed "ROLE" --SIZE,GRIT, CLEARS SPACE, PROTECTS/FIGHTS ...maybe won't score as much as LUCIC but will protect intimidate and keep the opposition goons and hitters from taking liberties with our skill guys .Every team could use one of those types especially if you do not currently have one...WHICH is whu WILSON is ranked in the late teens early 20's on many lists.. So not a BPA...not geatceiling for top 2 lines as per usual with first round "talent"--but a uSEFUL ROLE type so rare (because heskates well enough and with that sIZE) that he fills a NEED...
I did bring up the possibility of atrade down (a few spots)--IF Grigorenko "slides" to be there at #18 and CHI gets a good deal to trade down say 2-4 spots --maybe they risk it and still get HERTL or WILSON or JANKOWSKI ...Grigorenko surely won't fall out of the top 20-22 so trading down if a team in those spots offered a 2nd rounder and its first to get Grigorenko -and I'd gamble that we get one of the other targets by doing it--so done...(YET honestly I'd be shocked if Grigorenko lasted to #18)..but it is true that both BUTTON and KYLE WOODLIEF of REDLINE both soured on him despite the MONO revelation that came out. IF they cannot credit him despite that -if they just compared him to HERTL at the WJHC-U-20 and found Grigorenko wanting in not living upto his great hype -it could be they made the mistake of not doing the reverse -ie crediting HERTL more greatly ..in which case, GRIGORENKO really is a top ten in this draft but so should HERTL be ranked ..
Again-HERTL is Rodney Dangerfield -just no respect or not enough of it.. Doesn't matter-I like him ---my hunch "pick to click" --and so not my fault if the stupido GM's pass on him till a smart or lucky one grabs him and gets to laugh at all the other bozos who passed ...Remember the mistakes so many passers made with Kopitar (and my CHI Hawks--Jack skille! I want to vommit)...
Yes the draft is a crap shoot-but sometimes hunches for what stares you in the face and SCREAMS under-ranked SHOULD make a rational GM refuse to lgo by his scout's
sacred ranking list and instead go with what his own eyes saw and his gut tells him is the best OPPORTUNITY in a trade-off with risk...
To sum up-for CHI if it were me picking at #18:
i) SUBBAN if by some miracle he lasts that long (he won't)..
ii) HERTL (1st Target)
iii) JANKOWSKI (2nd target --in case somE GM drafting before 18 agrees with me on HERTL being way under-ranked,takes him, and JANKOWSKI is the one still on the board)..
iv) WILSON --if all the centres (Faksa,Grigorenko,Hertl and Jankowski go off the board before #18 --unlikely but as Button says-you SHOULD value centres over other forwards)
or iv) THE TRADE DOWN 1.2,3 or 4 spots --hoping HERTL or JANKOWKSI or WILSON still willbe on the board if they all were there at 18 and GRIGORENKO too and some team drafting 19-22 wants GRIGORENKO and will give their first and 2nd for him--the 2nd could be 2013 --CHI has no 2nd and 3rd in that deep draft)...
Even trade down if only HERTL and WILSON remain at #18 along with GRIGORENKO...
Maybe they last from 20-22 -it would be for certain if team drafting 19 or 20 wants to move up to get Grigorenko.
HOWEVER--i do not think GRigorenko last till #18 to implement such a strategic move down..eITHER he still goes top ten --OR some team will move up into the early teens to get him..SO i think this trade down move unlikely...
ANOTHER posiiblity is CHICAGO trades UP to draft SUBBAN in thetop ten (8-9) to head off TB in case they retain their pick (not trade with VAN) ..
AT mid-season before SUBBAN got his groin injury-I said that SUBBAN looked like he might be a franchise goalie.He was the best player I saw of anyone in this draft before that injury took him out of the line-up mid year....He wass THE "difference-maker" for his team...WHEN he got back in mid Fevruary he just was not the wall he was earlier...the doctors said he'd recovered from the groin injury BUT clearly there were lingering effects (real or imagined) that prevented him going "all out" like I saw in the first half.. THIS created doubts inmy mind-BUT after getting fooled lst year by BRANDON SAAD not perforing like he did in the first half--I made the mistake--like most NHL GM's -in thinking it was SAAD not exerting himself and stinking it up -when NOW everyone realizes it was just lingering efftects from the groin injury... THIS time myself --and NHL GM"s will not make that mistake.. We will not dismiss SUBBAN's worse 2nd half (when he got back) performance as him slipping in his play but rather cite lingering effects from the groin injuy as the prime reason for fall-off ..SUBBAN did play better again in the playoffs though stillnot the wall of the first half...HOWEVER after a full summer of rest and physio I expect him to be a WALL this season in the OHL ...I still think he could be a franchise goalie--so apparently does Button...
So maybe STANBO feels the same way and trades up.. I won't complain if he does that to get Subban.
IF he does not --then i think the likeliest scenario is using the pick at #18 (I don't see the trade-down scenario as probable since I still can't see Grigorenko there at #18 -but if I am wrong and he falls to #18,then maybe STAN gambles on that strategy...I think he would if all 3 of HERTL,JANKOWSKI and WILSON are still there
and he would trade down upto 3 spots to get one of them plus that 2nd rounder (even if in 2013),,,THE less of these 3 that are there at #18 could determine how far he is willing to gamble on the trade down-how many spots --maybe 2 ,maybe only one...dEpends on how much "gap" teams in these spots think they "value" Grigorenko over the other targets (if not much gap in their minds-they won't trade up).. but I still think the chance Grigorenko makes it to #18 is SLIM ..SO do not bet on STAN trading down.
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