The way I see it -- the Jackets cannot
It doesn’t take a genius to understand the only reasons Fantilli and Carlsson are ahead of Michkov are not hockey related. It’s all about his contract with SKA and geopolitical situation. Teams weren’t able to truly evaluate Michkov this past year due to him not participating in the international competitions.
There are many models based on actual performance that have Michkov and Bedard head to head, with a big gap from others.
When Michkov was already destroying Youth Olympics, Hlinka and U18 as a 16 year old, nobody even heard of Fantilli and Carlsson. The talent gap there is pretty noticeable.
Now, it’s clear that the teams are extremely cautious about using their top 5 picks on a player they won’t see in years and possibly more due to politics. In Columbus case, they’re predetermined to pick a big center they’ve been chasing since PLD left.
I agree. Personally, I feel Michkov is the 2nd best talent in the draft behind Bedard. If his name was Matthew Michaels from Canada, he is a
stone cold lock for 2nd overall. That said, in a hard cap world, it's imperative to hit on top real estate picks. And for a team like Columbus who have
"win now" players like Gaudreau, Laine, Werenski, Provorov, and Severson, it is a risky proposition the wait a minimum of 3 years before your best young player gives you a return on your investment. And, we cannot ignore the global climate, unfortunately.
As for the players themselves, here's my opinion...
Michkov will be a Kucherov / Kaprizov level titan when he arrives. I fully expect him to be an elite 90-100 point winger by age 23 or so.
Fantilli is the wildcard here because he reminds me of an Eichel / young Jeff Cater hybrid. But I expect him to be a 40/50/90 player in his prime.
Carlsson is the sweet pick because I think his game is brilliant. He has the
size, reach, skills, vision, and shot to be a top line horse at center. I also think his goal scoring has been criminally underrated by pundits to date. He has a lot of Auston Matthews in his game mixed in with some Nicklas Backstrom and Sasha Barkov / Anze Kopitar. But, let's say he never ends up
them, I still think he's a lock to be a 30/55/85 guy
(and that's a bit conservative) who drives the offense and makes his linemates better. And, if that's the case, do the Jackets pass on a 6-3 pivot who can bag 85-90 in order to wait on a winger who could flirt with 105-110? I think that's risky.
Smith is the one kid I think the Jackets should stay clear of. Not that he's not an elite talent, but he's on the smaller end, and his game is eerily similar to Gaudreau and Johnson. The Jackets have plenty of razzle dazzle and could use a player like Carlsson more imho.
