I’m honestly not sure what point you are trying to make. I responded to a guy that said “we were told” followed by something we weren’t. I said that all the experts didn’t expect much from him in his first year, but expect elite potential in a couple years.
I simply strongly disagree with the notion being pushed in here that this season doesn’t mean anything and he’s right where everyone thought he would/should be.
That is indeed unsustainable in the long term, although his own shooting struggles add into that.
No, he wasn't expected to have a season where he was below .5 ppg while playing 16 minutes a game, with mostly 1st unit PP time.
Or, you know, actually being accurate and not overly defensive. Considering your statement is including someone like Hall, who got traded awhile ago, and with the rotating injuries of players factoring in.
Don't you watch enough Devil's games to realize they were terribly misleading? I mean, its been pretty clear when watching them he is playing with the first unit.
People expected him to have better than a .5 ppg. Yes, he wasn't anticipated to light it up like McDavid or Matthews in year one, but better than this was expected. You know there is a large gap between what he is doing now, and high-end production for a rookie.
It’s what they should have done soon after the season began IMO. Loads of great centres in the NHL have started their seasons playing on the wing, getting their legs under them at the NHL level before accepting the additional responsibilities of the centreman position.
What people? I remember scouting reports that said he might struggle to adjust his first year, and he is.
I dunno, how about this quote from Pronman in October?
I know how it works, but you are also dramatically overstating things. 50 point pace? Let's just say he improved his oiSH% at 5v5 by 50% to a reasonable 8.48%, you know how many extra points that would give him on the year so far? 5.5 points. So, that would be 40 on an 82 games, over 74 which he is currently paced to play that is 36 points. So, I don't know how you've arrived at he "could very easily be scoring at a 50 point pace if he were getting even average puck luck." That is quite simply extreme hyperbole given the facts at hand.
People generally didn't expect it but some did, especially those I talked to around the game. After the draft I wrote that this is what could happen and suggested he take a year before the NHL (albeit noticeably lacking the same concern about what has also happened with Kakko)
Umm, a bunch of posters said this, and I caught flack for suggesting it wasn't true. I mean, I said to a bunch he wasn't on the same tier as Matthews, Eichel and Dahlin, and I can remember the push back.
Except you said very easily if he had an average. 8.5% at 5v5 is higher than average and even if you bump it up to 9.5% which would be on the high end you are talking two extra points. On top of that, if you give him the goals on expectation while ignoring his shot isn’t great yet, but then don’t subtract potential assists being missed that is entirely misleading. With the numbers you gave. 40 points over 82 is about right if his averages balanced out. 45 if you are going above to expecting closer to 9.5% area. I mean, if his line converted like Panarin or Laine’s year as a rookie fine. But that isn’t a reasonable expectation. That’s as much of an outlier as his current percentages.
Except your argument was easy if it was average. Which it wouldn't be. 8.5% is above average and even that only pushes it about to 40. You are expecting another 10 points to materialize out of optimism. Look, he is statistically under-achieving given what he is generating, you are just oign to far in the opposite direction.
