C Frederik Gauthier (2013, 21st, TOR)

[sniper81]

If Gauthier becomes a really good #3C for us, I can live with it that with our other Center picked from the same draft Verhaeghe playing lights out for Niagara this year.

I hope Freddy can develop a meaness to his game, with his size, it can be a major plus for us if he can.

I am still holding out he can hit 80 points this season, if he does and plays his sound 2 way game, I think Leafs fans will be happy.

You have emphasized the 80 point mark in a number of threads, I really don't see how he has to hit that certain number to make leaf fans happy. I personally see him as a guy who projects better at the pro level than the Q. If he puts up around 70 and plays lights out defensively while continuing to work on his skating I'll be happy.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Gauthier is now at a PPG player in the Q, relieves a few worries about his scoring. Good for Frederik.

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

Gauthier is now at a PPG player in the Q, relieves a few worries about his scoring. Good for Frederik.

This kinda sums up all that is inefficient and fallacious about how the majority of fans assess prospects. A few games and little scoring ; concerns! A few good games ; no worries! Judge a player on his technical abilities and projectability, whilst using his production as a secondary tool. Production is very important only to a degree. If people had concerns before, they will still have concerns probably.

If you want to take the PPG route for judging Gauthier, then being at PPG isn't in itself particularly impressive. It's closely matched with his production last year so far and he's now a 3rd year aged player (yes he is in his 2nd year) with a clear size and strength advantage. You expect offensive improvements given post draft year competition becomes younger.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

It is not unrealistic for fans of a high pick to expect their production to improve in their 2nd year at the Q level.

If a prospect declines or best case scenario just produces at the same level as when they were drafted. How can this not be a concern?

Again we discuss prospects when they are producing and when they are not.

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

It is not unrealistic for fans of a high pick to expect their production to improve in their 2nd year at the Q level.

If a prospect declines or best case scenario just produces at the same level as when they were drafted. How can this not be a concern?

Again we discuss prospects when they are producing and when they are not.

*Good few games, relieves some concerns* .... your sentiments. If a few games of stat watching can relieve some concerns, it directs me to the idea that your entire approach to assessing players isn't very good.

I don't think Guathier projects particularly well offensively at the NHL level, though he has other dimensions that no doubt interest the Leafs. There are better ways to assess prospects than simply stat watching and changing/altering conclusions based on little streaks/runs throughout a season.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

*Good few games, relieves some concerns* .... your sentiments. If a few games of stat watching can relieve some concerns, it directs me to the idea that your entire approach to assessing players isn't very good.

I don't think Guathier projects particularly well offensively at the NHL level, though he has other dimensions that no doubt interest the Leafs. There are better ways to assess prospects than simply stat watching and changing/altering conclusions based on little streaks/runs throughout a season.

Obcourse viewing his play in conjunction to stats viewing would be the more complete picture, this is obvious. However, for a prospect that the majority of Leafs fans are hoping can develop a scoring touch that may make him a #2C one day. Stats are a relevance for this player.

This is no different than any player in the prospects threads. Almost all are linked into how they are producing in Junior this season. If none of us talked about stats, there would be little to no discussion on how prospects are progressing or regressing for some.

 

[theIceWookie]

Obcourse viewing his play in conjunction to stats viewing would be the more complete picture, this is obvious. However, for a prospect that the majority of Leafs fans are hoping can develop a scoring touch that may make him a #2C one day. Stats are a relevance for this player.

This is no different than any player in the prospects threads. Almost all are linked into how they are producing in Junior this season. If none of us talked about stats, there would be little to no discussion on how prospects are progressing or regressing for some.

Stats never tell the whole story. In fact they often skew the player. Stat improvement doesn't always indicate player improvement, nor is stat regression always indicitive of player regression. I think that's what a lot of people are trying to say. Stats can be helpful sometimes, but they can just as easily make a player look a whole lot different than the context of those stats or other factors actually say.

For example, Ryan Getzlaf had a huge stat regression from his 3rd year in the Dub to his 4th year. Like 25 points less in two more games. That would certainly suggest he was regressing. Now we obviously know he turned into a pretty damn good hockey player.

Stats don't always indicate a player's development, nor should it. Making arbitrary production levels for a player to hit isn't great.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Stats never tell the whole story. In fact they often skew the player. Stat improvement doesn't always indicate player improvement, nor is stat regression always indicitive of player regression. I think that's what a lot of people are trying to say. Stats can be helpful sometimes, but they can just as easily make a player look a whole lot different than the context of those stats or other factors actually say.

For example, Ryan Getzlaf had a huge stat regression from his 3rd year in the Dub to his 4th year. Like 25 points less in two more games. That would certainly suggest he was regressing. Now we obviously know he turned into a pretty damn good hockey player.

Stats don't always indicate a player's development, nor should it. Making arbitrary production levels for a player to hit isn't great.

Yes, I agree every prospect should be judged on a case by case basis. No 2 players develop identically I have always said a draft should be judged on a case by case basis.

We are still in the discussion stage for Gauthier, we all agree he is a good defensive prospect. What we want to see is offensive upside. Even if it's in simplistic points.

 

[CanaFan]

Stats never tell the whole story. In fact they often skew the player. Stat improvement doesn't always indicate player improvement, nor is stat regression always indicitive of player regression. I think that's what a lot of people are trying to say. Stats can be helpful sometimes, but they can just as easily make a player look a whole lot different than the context of those stats or other factors actually say.

For example, Ryan Getzlaf had a huge stat regression from his 3rd year in the Dub to his 4th year. Like 25 points less in two more games. That would certainly suggest he was regressing. Now we obviously know he turned into a pretty damn good hockey player.

Stats don't always indicate a player's development, nor should it. Making arbitrary production levels for a player to hit isn't great.

Ignores a basic truth that MOST - though of course not all - scorers in the NHL are scorers at earlier levels as well. Certainly being a big scorer is no guarantee of being a scorer in the NHL, but NOT being a big scorer in junior is a fairly good predictor of also not being a big scorer in the NHL. You can always find a handful of anecdotal exceptions but the general trend would strongly show a strong one-directional relationship between junior and NHL scoring.

 

[theIceWookie]

Ignores a basic truth that MOST - though of course not all - scorers in the NHL are scorers at earlier levels as well. Certainly being a big scorer is no guarantee of being a scorer in the NHL, but NOT being a big scorer in junior is a fairly good predictor of also not being a big scorer in the NHL. You can always find a handful of anecdotal exceptions but the general trend would strongly show a strong one-directional relationship between junior and NHL scoring.

We're not expecting Gauthier to be a big scorer though. Just to show some more offense that could be considered 2nd line upside.

Small piece of context. In their first four games, they could barely score, and it wasn't until the 5th game that they started to put up numbers closer to last years total (more than 3 goals a game). In their first 4 games, they were scoring at a measly 2 goals a game. Now? They are scoring at 3.76 goals a game, closer to the 3.88 goals a game over last season.

Coincidently, Gauthier didn't put up a multi-point game until the 6th game when they finally broke over 4 goals (a 6-2 win). After the first 5 games, Gautheir has 14 points in 10 games. This suggests that Gauthier had a bad start that was in part due to his team starting so slowly offensively. So since they started firing offensively, Gauthier has 14 points in 11 games. Or 78.9 points over 62 games. Meaning a nice little improvement over last seasons totals.

Plus he's shooting at a higher rate (which would lead to almost 30 more shots over last seasons totals), which shows he's at least taking more offensive chances. So I wouldn't write him off offensively yet.

 

[jmart21]

*Good few games, relieves some concerns* .... your sentiments. If a few games of stat watching can relieve some concerns, it directs me to the idea that your entire approach to assessing players isn't very good.

I don't think Guathier projects particularly well offensively at the NHL level, though he has other dimensions that no doubt interest the Leafs. There are better ways to assess prospects than simply stat watching and changing/altering conclusions based on little streaks/runs throughout a season.

Couldn't agree with this more. Well said; you can't rely on stay watching and google to follow player development.

 

[bigdirty]

I agree that you can't judge a player on junior point totals. I just think it's funny the way the discussion goes around here.

First, people were all over Gauthier because he wasn't putting up points early on. Now that he is getting some points, everyone switches to 'you can't judge him by stats'.
Can't have it both ways.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Not sure if posted, But Freddy is playing in the Subway Series representing team QMJHL.

http://www.theqmjhl.ca/article/qmjhl-announces-2012-subway-super-series-roster_151379

 

[Sartorial]

Not sure if posted, But Freddy is playing in the Subway Series representing team QMJHL.

http://www.theqmjhl.ca/article/qmjhl-announces-2012-subway-super-series-roster_151379

Yup, different thread though.

This event is so terrific. Gives people all over the country the chance to see players for other leagues we rarely get to watch.

 

[CanuckBeSerious]

First, people were all over Gauthier because he wasn't putting up points early on. Now that he is getting some points, everyone switches to 'you can't judge him by stats'.
Can't have it both ways.

The contrary is also true, can't say : " Oh he's a good defensive forward the stats don't count" and now that he's scoring say " Look he's piling up points he's a beast, we told you so".

 

[WildcatMapleLeafs28]

Gauthier is now at a PPG player in the Q, relieves a few worries about his scoring. Good for Frederik.

While I enjoy your optimism , that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be able to bring that scoring ability to the next level. It's definitely a positive sign though.

 

[RomersWorld*]

Of the top 60 picks in the draft(1st+2nd round) who are forwards playing in the CHL, only Michael McCarron, Justin Bailey, and Gabryel Boudreau aren't at a PPG pace or one point away from PPG. 22 of the 25 top 60 picks playing in the CHL are at PPG+ pace. Even a guy like Tyler Bertuzzi is at a PPG.

If you aren't at or near a PPG pace after your draft season then you are in trouble. I don't think being at a PPG really means much of anything though other than you aren't sucking.

Drafted last year from the QMJHL
#3. J. Drouin: 9 games, 15 points (1.67 PPG)
#20. A. Mantha: 15 games, 39 points (2.60 PPG)
#21. F. Gauthier: 15 games, 16 points (1.07 PPG)
#22. E. Poirier: 16 games, 26 points (1.63 PPG)
#32. A. Erne: 14 games, 16 points (1.14 PPG)
#37. V. Zykov: 15 games, 17 points (1.13 PPG)
#39. L. Dauphin: 17 games, 17 points (1.00 PPG)
#45. N. Sorenson: 9 games, 15 points (1.67 PPG)
#49. G. Boudreau: 18 games, 12 points (0.67 PPG)
#57. W. Carrier: 15 games, 17 points (1.13 PPG)

Only 1 player not at a PPG in the Q from the top 60 picks.
Other draft picks(forwards) from the Q:
#62. Y. Laplante: 14 games, 11 points (0.79 PPG)
#80. A. Duclair: 15 games, 21 points (1.40 PPG)
#95. F. Girard: 14 games, 14 points (1.00 PPG)
#116. M. Reway: 13 games, 14 points (1.08 PPG)
#122. C. Clapperton: 13 games, 23 points (1.77 PPG)
#138. V. Dunn: 14 games, 13 points (0.93 PPG)
#176. J. Gregoire: 15 games, 24 points (1.60 PPG)

So 3 of 17 forwards picked from the QMJHL aren't at a PPG pace(and Dunn is only 1 point off).

Maybe 1.00 PPG pace shouldn't be the judgement of offensive capability and projection?

 

[The Magic Man]

Any word on a possible injury?

 

[The EnigmatiC Soul*]

Why has he seemingly regressed this year? He was not very great in the WJC and this year has just 7 goals and 17 assists in 29 games.

For a guy drafted in the 1st round not sure this is all that acceptable of a growth curve. In fact he's regressed in his scoring rate.

What's the deal? Anyone watch him on a fairly regular basis live able to give an analysis here? Has he been injured and playing through? Something seems a miss to only have 7 goals.

 

[Judas Tavares]

All I can say is, in a few years, in game 7, when the Leafs are up 4-3 in the game, he will win that faceoff. A dumbo Dman won't get the puck out. Gauthier will block a shot and about 10 seconds later will intercept a pass and move out of the zone and chip the puck up. Some one dimensional player will get the puck and easily put it in the empty net. Leafs win 5-3 and move on.

After the game, Leaf fans will applaud the empty net scorer, saying his skill did a great job of sliding it into the net. They won't even mention Gauthier. Why? They won't notice it happened.

 

[Loffer]

The kid is big and strong and smart. What else are you asking, ffs? Points? lol.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

I thought he played well in the WJC. Was relied on for important faceoffs, solid defensively and was pretty good at the cycle with anderson in the O zone. Too bad everytime Anderson and Gauthier would have a good cycle going, laughton would take the puck like a dummy and skate to the blueline, before losing it and handcuffing our defence.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

he's fine people are really just overreacting.

 

[canucksfan100]

Doubt he makes the NHL, at best i see him = Joe Colborne with less offensive potential.

 

[GTA]

All I can say is, in a few years, in game 7, when the Leafs are up 4-3 in the game, he will win that faceoff. A dumbo Dman won't get the puck out. Gauthier will block a shot and about 10 seconds later will intercept a pass and move out of the zone and chip the puck up. Some one dimensional player will get the puck and easily put it in the empty net. Leafs win 5-3 and move on.

After the game, Leaf fans will applaud the empty net scorer, saying his skill did a great job of sliding it into the net. They won't even mention Gauthier. Why? They won't notice it happened.

...you do realize is he not that good at faceoffs right? why dont we base our opinion on his actual faceoff stats. 47.6% this year. 3 straight wins in the wjc does not make him good...or even average.