but wait a minute, didn't you use Crosby's 2.8 ppg for 28 games as your reason why Bedard was clearly below? Do you just keep moving the goal posts or are you just never willing to accept they are on the same level?
Firstly, Crosby had 40g 93p in his final 27gp post WJC. That's 3.44ppg. Bedard has an impressive 46p in 15gp since the WJC, a 3.07 ppg pace. So he would need 47p in his next 12gp to match that pace (3.92 ppg). Since they have 14 games remaining, he'd need 55p in his last 14gp to finish with the same. Considering he's been shooting at nearly 24% since the WJC, I think it's probably unlikely he gets much hotter than he's already been. And for reference, Crosby had 50p in his first 15gp back from the WJC.
But secondly,
and most importantly: As I have explained several times, production is a disqualifying factor for generational status, not a qualifying one. Bedard's numbers may be generational, but there's more to it than that. If it were based on numbers alone this player evaluation thing would be pretty easy.
Unfortunately, Bedard lacks the key physical attributes of truly generational players that allow them the ability to create time and space for themselves against tighter checking opponents. Crosby's strength/balance/puck protection, McDavid's skating, Lemieux's size/reach.
It's the same reason why Nico Hischier was considered a better prospect from the Q than the more productive Jordan Dumais. Dumais' is an elite junior scorer, and certainly has potential, but there are some serious question marks about his lack of size/strength combined with his weaker skating.
Bedard is a good skater and is well built, but he's probably never going to be a burner and may never reach 5'10. But there just aren't a ton of top line centers under 5'10 who aren't the best skater on the ice during any given shift. He's physically/athletically very similar to Brad Marchand, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up as a winger. I don't think his size and skating are going to prevent him from becoming a franchise player, but I do think they could prevent him from being generational player.
He does possess elite IQ & processing, which are really helpful in overcoming some of those concerns, but they're a tier below that of Crosby & Gretzky, and more similar to guys like McDavid IMO. And even with his generational IQ, I think Gretzky would "struggle" to really separate himself from today's elite offensive players because things are so much tighter and he lacked elite physical tools necessary to create time and space (he'd still be an all world offensive player but probably more like a peak Kucherov/Kane/Gaudreau/Marner than a McDavid).
Bedard does have a generational shot though, and I do expect him to be a generational goal scorer. I'd be pretty surprised if he's not 40 goal scorer right off the bat, and I'd expect him to pace for at least 50-60 goal guy at least 5-6 times in his career. These numbers might even prove conservative if we continue to see increases in scoring, or if he gets drafted by a team with an elite playmaker like Columbus.
And since he should be pretty much an instant 40+ goal scorer at 18, may even have a chance to scare 900 career goals if he can stay healthy - if you assume a 20 year career, with a 40g avg for the 10 seasons surrounding his prime (say between ages 18-20 & 31-37) and a 50g avg
during his prime (21-30 y/o), that's 900 goals. Seems surprisingly doable with the increase in scoring (there are 6th guys scoring at a 50+ goal pace this year, and a handful more right on the cusp). The key for him will be remaining healthy, which I think is actually pretty doable with his solid build & preference to play the perimeter. He plays in a lot of the same areas as Patrick Kane, and he's had a very healthy career despite several long playoff runs.
Oh was it 2.8 for Crosby? So Bedard’s 3.06 since the WJC is actually better. Granted it’s 28 games compared to 15 so far. But I agree that his constant goalpost moving over the year has been pretty funny to watch.
You're incorrect, please get your facts straight.
How is he below? Any basis?
Per the above, Crosby's post WJC PPG was 3.44. Bedard's is 3.07
No basis. When Bedard was dazzling using the the eye test - with ridiculous shots, dekes, and passes…that poster used the stats to downplay it. Now that the stats are in Bedard’s favor, it’ll be that when you watch him he doesn’t dominate like Crosby.
How are the stats in Bedard's favor?
