C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 3

[MAB1]

I wouldn't be surprised if Bedard had as good a career as AM is going to have, the kid has "it".

Career goals per game among all player ever:
1. Bossy (0.76)
2. Lemieux (0.75)
3. Matthews (0.64)
4. Bure (0.62)
5. Ovechkin (0.61)
6. Gretzky (0.60)

I think you're underrating the career Matthews is already having and on pace for. He's got a higher career gpg average than Ovechkin and Gretzky. He's elite defensively and has size over Bedard at the C position. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bedard get moved to the wing at some point in his future. Should be a fantastic point producer and goal scorer in his own right however and looks to be the generational talent of the 20's.

 

[wetcoast]

Career goals per game among all player ever:
1. Bossy (0.76)
2. Lemieux (0.75)
3. Matthews (0.64)
4. Bure (0.62)
5. Ovechkin (0.61)
6. Gretzky (0.60)

I think you're underrating the career Matthews is already having and on pace for. He's got a higher career gpg average than Ovechkin and Gretzky. He's elite defensively and has size over Bedard at the C position. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bedard get moved to the wing at some point in his future. Should be a fantastic point producer and goal scorer in his own right however and looks to be the generational talent of the 20's.

2 things here,

1. I'm really high on Bedard as a prospect, for me he is just below the McDavid, Crosby level.

2. As good of a goal scorer that AM has been, his career so far has lacked the "it" factor even though his individual playoff resume isn't horrible I just think that Bedard can have a total career as good as AM will have.

Time will tell of course.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I think it's a little unfair to compare Auston Matthews current NHL superstar and Bedard, the prospect. We know that Matthews figured out how to translate his skills to the NHL level and get even better than most people expected. I think that Bedard is a better prospect than Matthews was at this age. His shifty offensive game and absolutely elite shot are on another level.

Of course, he's not the biggest guy and has an entire season before he's even drafted. A lot of great prospects squander their potential. Bedard could fizzle and become a PP triggerman that gets pushed around too much to dominate 5v5. He could also grow a couple inches, add another gear to his skating and become arguably the best player in the world. Matthews is even better than my mean expectation of him. Bedard will also have to exceed my expectations to reach Matthews's level, but I think he's in a tier with McDavid and Crosby as a prospect.

I'm not really comparing Bedard and Matthews as prospects. Obviously, Bedard is top tier as was Matthews. What I am saying is while Bedard posseses aspects of his game that are similar to Matthews he is significantly smaller and that will never change. Matthews is able to do a lot of the things he does at the NHL level (in particular his board work) because he is so big and strong. Bedard will need to rely more on his quickness and escapability.

2 things here,

1. I'm really high on Bedard as a prospect, for me he is just below the McDavid, Crosby level.

2. As good of a goal scorer that AM has been, his career so far has lacked the "it" factor even though his individual playoff resume isn't horrible I just think that Bedard can have a total career as good as AM will have.

Time will tell of course.

How has he lacked the "it" factor? He has back to back Rockets and is the reigning Hart Trophy winner. I guess you're saying Bedard will be that + a post-season dynamo?

 

[MAB1]

2 things here,

1. I'm really high on Bedard as a prospect, for me he is just below the McDavid, Crosby level.

2. As good of a goal scorer that AM has been, his career so far has lacked the "it" factor even though his individual playoff resume isn't horrible I just think that Bedard can have a total career as good as AM will have.

Time will tell of course.

That's where I have Bedard too, but even on that tier below them the players have varying strengths and weaknesses. Guys like Malkin and Matthews may not be in the McDavid and Crosby tier but they can do everything Bedard can do...while also being 6'3. Bedard might have a skating advantage on either but both have a physicality advantage that teams covet more come post season time since that's a point of contention for you.

AM is 24 and a 2x rocket winner (favourite this season for this 3rd), 1x Hart winner (could easily win another in his career), 1 Lindsay winner (NHL players believed he was the best player in a season during prime McDavid), it'll be pretty hard for Bedard to top that.

At this point, the only thing missing from his resume is a cup and conn smythe but he's 24 entering his 7th season. Mackinnon won his first in his 9th but he has no rockets, or hart or lindsay. McDavid is entering his 8th season and just made it to the conference finals for the first time in his career last season.

 

[Kennerback]

If you watch him play it doesn't matter much like watching Gretzky who looked scrawny on the ice as a prospect and just produced.

In the generational players, Gretzky and Lemieux were in a league of their own. They were so far ahead of the 2nd (or 3rd best player when their career overlapped). Like 25% to 50 % more production than the next guy. Gretzky so utterly dominated his WJC, no comparison is possible to Bedard.

 

[wetcoast]

In the generational players, Gretzky and Lemieux were in a league of their own. They were so far ahead of the 2nd (or 3rd best player when their career overlapped). Like 25% to 50 % more production than the next guy. Gretzky so utterly dominated his WJC, no comparison is possible to Bedard.

I'm only talking about size and I was around in the late 70s when people were talking about a skinny WHA prospect named Gretzky (wasn't comparing them as players just the size concerns).

 

[SenzZen]

Career goals per game among all player ever:
1. Bossy (0.76)
2. Lemieux (0.75)
3. Matthews (0.64)
4. Bure (0.62)
5. Ovechkin (0.61)
6. Gretzky (0.60)

I think you're underrating the career Matthews is already having and on pace for. He's got a higher career gpg average than Ovechkin and Gretzky. He's elite defensively and has size over Bedard at the C position. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bedard get moved to the wing at some point in his future. Should be a fantastic point producer and goal scorer in his own right however and looks to be the generational talent of the 20's.

Over his first 6 seasons in the NHL Gretzky was 0.91 gpg. While I think he could increase his gpg number in the coming seasons, it's too early to assume he will maintain the rate that will put him ahead of Gretzky when it's all said and done.

 

[Kennerback]

I'm only talking about size and I was around in the late 70s when people were talking about a skinny WHA prospect named Gretzky (wasn't comparing them as players just the size concerns).

I think Bedard’s size is fine for a forward. He has elite skills. He’s already stronger and probably thicker than Gretzky.

But he’ll have more responsibilities as a Center than Gretzky had. The role has almost become a 3rd D when playing in the defensive zone. And you had to pay a price to manhandle Gretzky. There was no instigator penalty, so you got a one-way beating from Semenko

 

[Lavar Ball]

Let down your guard for Bedard? That a new one?

 

[snipes]

Career goals per game among all player ever:
1. Bossy (0.76)
2. Lemieux (0.75)
3. Matthews (0.64)
4. Bure (0.62)
5. Ovechkin (0.61)
6. Gretzky (0.60)

I think you're underrating the career Matthews is already having and on pace for. He's got a higher career gpg average than Ovechkin and Gretzky. He's elite defensively and has size over Bedard at the C position. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bedard get moved to the wing at some point in his future. Should be a fantastic point producer and goal scorer in his own right however and looks to be the generational talent of the 20's.

Matthews gave up more 5 v 5 goals against than pretty much every forward. Not sure he‘s elite defensively.

Excellent player and your point still stands that he’s had a very good career already particularly goal scoring.

 

[ijuka]

Career goals per game among all player ever:
1. Bossy (0.76)
2. Lemieux (0.75)
3. Matthews (0.64)
4. Bure (0.62)
5. Ovechkin (0.61)
6. Gretzky (0.60)

I think you're underrating the career Matthews is already having and on pace for. He's got a higher career gpg average than Ovechkin and Gretzky. He's elite defensively and has size over Bedard at the C position. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bedard get moved to the wing at some point in his future. Should be a fantastic point producer and goal scorer in his own right however and looks to be the generational talent of the 20's.

Not that I disagree with Matthews having a great career but athis kind of a comparison is very misleading. You should instead include their goals per average up until the age Matthews is, which is 24. Including their careers to late 30s while Matthews is in his prime is going to greatly skew the results.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Matthews gave up more 5 v 5 goals against than pretty much every forward. Not sure he‘s elite defensively.

Excellent player and your point still stands that he’s had a very good career already particularly goal scoring.

Do you have a link to that analysis?

 

[wetcoast]

Matthews gave up more 5 v 5 goals against than pretty much every forward. Not sure he‘s elite defensively.

Excellent player and your point still stands that he’s had a very good career already particularly goal scoring.

I liked the last sentence, the first sentence simply isn't true as AM is hardly a PP specialist.

Sure AM might not be elite defensively but he tilts the ice 5on 5 no 2 ways about that.

 

[JackSlater]

Doesn't seem all that contradictory to think that

1. Bedard is better at this point than Matthews was at the same age.

2. Bedard may not be better than Matthews as a professional because he likely won't have the physical advantages that Matthews has.

1 seems obvious, 2 seems likely, and both can be true. Bedard is a great prospect having an impressive WJC tournament. Really entertaining player too. Not sure that he has as much room to improve as Matthews did. If the team that drafts him in the summer had the chance to guarantee that he'd turn out exactly as good as Matthews has or roll the dice and see if he turns out better, 32/32 teams would take the Matthews guarantee.

 

[OKR]

Doesn't seem all that contradictory to think that

1. Bedard is better at this point than Matthews was at the same age.

2. Bedard may not be better than Matthews as a professional because he likely won't have the physical advantages that Matthews has.

1 seems obvious, 2 seems likely, and both can be true. Bedard is a great prospect having an impressive WJC tournament. Really entertaining player too. Not sure that he has as much room to improve as Matthews did. If the team that drafts him in the summer had the chance to guarantee that he'd turn out exactly as good as Matthews has or roll the dice and see if he turns out better, 32/32 teams would take the Matthews guarantee.

How does 1. even seem obvious? Matthews was over PPG and all-star in one of the Europe’s finest pro leagues. Big fan of Bedard but to be obviously better than Matthews was at his age, we need to see more than just a excellent World Juniors from him.

 

[prongertheman9]

How does 1. even seem obvious? Matthews was over PPG and all-star in one of the Europe’s finest pro leagues. Big fan of Bedard but to be obviously better than Matthews was at his age, we need to see more than just a excellent World Juniors from him.

How is Matthews 18 year old season relevant in comparison to Bedard who is still technically in his 16 year old season. The poster said at the SAME age

 

[Starry Knight]

How does 1. even seem obvious? Matthews was over PPG and all-star in one of the Europe’s finest pro leagues. Big fan of Bedard but to be obviously better than Matthews was at his age, we need to see more than just a excellent World Juniors from him.

At the same age Matthews put up 70 points in 64 games for the USNTDP and 7 points in 7 games for the USA U-18 team. Matthews was a late birthday, so his year in Switzerland will be at the same age Bedard is playing his rookie season in the NHL.

 

[arider1990]

At the same age Matthews put up 70 points in 64 games for the USNTDP and 7 points in 7 games for the USA U-18 team. Matthews was a late birthday, so his year in Switzerland will be at the same age Bedard is playing his rookie season in the NHL.

Matthews was an early Birthday. He was 2 days away from being eligible for the 2015 draft.

 

[Chiarelli]

Anyone get a bit of a Datsyuk vibe from Bedard?

 

[yzerman]

And the Philadelphia Flyers select with their 1st overall pick in the 2023 year draft...

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

People can talk about how great Bedard is right now, but I just hope the Yakupov moment doesn't repeat, because he is a generational bust.

 

[Gold Standard]

It's game day, kid.

Do your thing!

I'm curious if he can amp it up in the elimination and medal rd. games like he did at U18s a while back. If he delivers here, he cements his draft ranking, and it will not be undone. The hype will be crazy.

4 pt. game for him today. a hatty and a helper.

 

[Mathieukferland]

It's game day, kid.

Do your thing!

I'm curious if he can amp it up in the elimination and medal rd. games like he did at U18s a while back. If he delivers here, he cements his draft ranking, and it will not be undone. The hype will be crazy.

4 pt. game for him today. a hatty and a helper.

Hopefully the unwarranted benching lights a spark in him that will fire Canada to gold like in Texas; no pressure

 

[VictorLustig]

Anyone get a bit of a Datsyuk vibe from Bedard?

No.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Anyone get a bit of a Datsyuk vibe from Bedard?

Seem like very different players stylistically. A better skating Sakic is probably closer.