C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 2

[Dominance]

Not that it’s a shock, but I’d just like to point out how a number of posters who were VERY active in this thread about 10 pages back are now nowhere to be found.

 

[crosbyshow]

Bedard is up to 1.29 points per game (CHL+WJC) this season compared to McDavid at 1.53 points per game in his 16 year old season. Bedard is slowly closing that gap.

If he stays this hot and has 4 games that equal his last 4, he’ll be at 1.53 points per game as well.

…and if he does, he’ll likely be sitting there with a significant edge in goal scoring.

Also keep in mind Bedard is a July birthday, McDavid a January.

The production is worth comparing.

Mcdavid did 99 points in 56 points for 1.76 ppg at 16 turning 17..

Crosby at 16 ...: 2.14 ppg and was named junior player of the year in Canada...

Bedars is not there yet.

 

[Bubbles]

Not that it’s a shock, but I’d just like to point out how a number of posters who were VERY active in this thread about 10 pages back are now nowhere to be found.

Don't worry, they'll be back when Bedard has a scoreless game.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bedard really is better than wright huh

AINEC

 

[ORRFForever]

Not that it’s a shock, but I’d just like to point out how a number of posters who were VERY active in this thread about 10 pages back are now nowhere to be found.

A LOT of posters want him to fail. It is what it is.

 

[landy92mack29]

I don't think Bedard is on Crosby/McDavid level either....at least not yet but you can't really use numbers to compare them. Firstly numbers never really tell the true story but also every situation is different. Plus you have the WHL being a much tougher league to play/score in.

All I can say is I'm super excited for the 2023 WHL draft class compared to this years

 

[EichelFan15]

What points per game does Bedard need to finish this season with for people to start believing he is in the Crosby/McDavid tier?

Taking into consideration the league strength differences and line mates. Is him getting 1.5ppg equivalent to McDavid’s 1.76 with said differences?

 

[Icebreakers]

What points per game does Bedard need to finish this season with for people to start believing he is in the Crosby/McDavid tier?

Taking into consideration the league strength differences and line mates. Is him getting 1.5ppg equivalent to McDavid’s 1.76 with said differences?

~1.55 ppg would basically mean he would be leading the WHL so yes. Best player in the WHL at age 16.

 

[prongertheman9]

What points per game does Bedard need to finish this season with for people to start believing he is in the Crosby/McDavid tier?

Taking into consideration the league strength differences and line mates. Is him getting 1.5ppg equivalent to McDavid’s 1.76 with said differences?

1.5 is probably a fair equivalent but it won’t matter what Bedard finishes with - the haters will just keep moving the goalposts. Once the production catches up with the eye test/advanced analytics the @Pavel Buchnevich of the world will have a new angle to diminish his accomplishments.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

1.5 is probably a fair equivalent but it won’t matter what Bedard finishes with - the haters will just keep moving the goalposts. Once the production catches up with the eye test/advanced analytics the @Pavel Buchnevich of the world will have a new angle to diminish his accomplishments.

Your post is very inflammatory. You claim the haters require a certain amount of points to be scored, and then tag me.

I don't hate Bedard. Should I say every person who is ragging on Wright in that thread is a hater?

I think it's very fair that if a player is going to be called generational that we hold them to the generational standard. If everyone wants to admit he's not generational, I have very few complaints about Bedard then. He's obviously a great young player with a chance to be an excellent NHL'er.

Do I think he's generational? No, I think it's quite clear he's not, for a few reasons.

1. His skill-set is lacking to be generational.

Bedard is 5'9 and not an elite skater for his size. There is 1 top 6 center under 5'10 in the NHL right now, and he plays for an expansion team. Wasn't one last season. The number usually fluctuates between 0 and 1 per season of top six centers under 5'10, so it's rare that there are sub 5'10 centers.

Do I believe Bedard could be an exception? Yes, I believe there's a good chance he could be. But it's nonetheless a valid concern that there is a reason why 5'10 seems to be the threshold where you must be this tall, otherwise it's very unlikely you will be a top 6 center. To ignore league trends would be ridiculous.

Could he grow taller? Yes, he could. Of course, he could. He also might not. I don't think this needs to be analyzed too much. He could absolutely grow, but until he reaches that threshold it's a concern, especially given he's not like 3 or 4 drafts away from his draft. He'll be drafted next calendar year.

The skating also needs to improve for his size, as long as we are operating under the idea that he's a 5'9 center. If a player is going to be able to beat the overwhelming trend, it's going to take being able to make up for disadvantages in some areas in other ways.

He also has to improve his defensive play and continue to get stronger. His defensive play is not a strength. It may not be a weakness, but usually the sub 5'10 centers that ever stick at the position are considered strong in this area at lower levels.

2. Objective production can nullify subjective assessments, but Bedard's production isn't accomplishing that.

It's also true that all of our own opinions of what we like and don't like of players don't matter. What will matter is what they prove.

If I hated Bedard's game, which I don't, yet he produced like McDavid or Crosby at the same ages, you'd rightfully say who cares what you think? The production says he's generational. And that'd be a fair response.

I don't think any of us should think too highly of our own opinions that we can't be open to the idea that what we see is wrong. If Bedard catches up to those guys, fair play to the kid. Do I question if he has a generational skillset? Absolutely. I question the same with Michov. Don't think its a generational skillset.

But if any of these kids, Bedard, Michkov, or someone else, produce at these ages like a generational player, I think you can make an argument they are on a path to being generational.

In sum, production and subjective assessments of the skillsets are both part of it. I'm not sure that either matter an outsized amount. It's probably a combination of the two. Last season, I think we could start questioning whether the skillset was there. The production was. It made it at least possible that Bedard could be generational. Now, he has a weaker season. That further exploits some of the flaws in his skillset. The production isn't there at the generational level.

You and any honest person should be able to admit that he's not on a generational path. You shouldn't be chiding those who point this out. Trying to honestly ask what level of production he'd need and inflammatorily tagging people who you claim hate Bedard is just nonsense. You should well understand everything I just said. I don't need to give you a number because it shouldn't be about rooting for or against Bedard to hit a number. It should be about assessing the picture in front of us.

 

[prongertheman9]

Your post is very inflammatory. You claim the haters require a certain amount of points to be scored, and then tag me.

I don't hate Bedard. Should I say every person who is ragging on Wright in that thread is a hater?

I think it's very fair that if a player is going to be called generational that we hold them to the generational standard. If everyone wants to admit he's not generational, I have very few complaints about Bedard then. He's obviously a great young player with a chance to be an excellent NHL'er.

Do I think he's generational? No, I think it's quite clear he's not, for a few reasons.

1. His skill-set is lacking to be generational.

Bedard is 5'9 and not an elite skater for his size. There is 1 top 6 center under 5'10 in the NHL right now, and he plays for an expansion team. Wasn't one last season. The number usually fluctuates between 0 and 1 per season of top six centers under 5'10, so it's rare that there are sub 5'10 centers.

Do I believe Bedard could be an exception? Yes, I believe there's a good chance he could be. But it's nonetheless a valid concern that there is a reason why 5'10 seems to be the threshold where you must be this tall, otherwise it's very unlikely you will be a top 6 center. To ignore league trends would be ridiculous.

Could he grow taller? Yes, he could. Of course, he could. He also might not. I don't think this needs to be analyzed too much. He could absolutely grow, but until he reaches that threshold it's a concern, especially given he's not like 3 or 4 drafts away from his draft. He'll be drafted next calendar year.

The skating also needs to improve for his size, as long as we are operating under the idea that he's a 5'9 center. If a player is going to be able to beat the overwhelming trend, it's going to take being able to make up for disadvantages in some areas in other ways.

He also has to improve his defensive play and continue to get stronger. His defensive play is not a strength. It may not be a weakness, but usually the sub 5'10 centers that ever stick at the position are considered strong in this area at lower levels.

2. Objective production can nullify subjective assessments, but Bedard's production isn't accomplishing that.

It's also true that all of our own opinions of what we like and don't like of players don't matter. What will matter is what they prove.

If I hated Bedard's game, which I don't, yet he produced like McDavid or Crosby at the same ages, you'd rightfully say who cares what you think? The production says he's generational. And that'd be a fair response.

I don't think any of us should think too highly of our own opinions that we can't be open to the idea that what we see is wrong. If Bedard catches up to those guys, fair play to the kid. Do I question if he has a generational skillset? Absolutely. I question the same with Michov. Don't think its a generational skillset.

But if any of these kids, Bedard, Michkov, or someone else, produce at these ages like a generational player, I think you can make an argument they are on a path to being generational.

In sum, production and subjective assessments of the skillsets are both part of it. I'm not sure that either matter an outsized amount. It's probably a combination of the two. Last season, I think we could start questioning whether the skillset was there. The production was. It made it at least possible that Bedard could be generational. Now, he has a weaker season. That further exploits some of the flaws in his skillset. The production isn't there at the generational level.

You and any honest person should be able to admit that he's not on a generational path. You shouldn't be chiding those who point this out. Trying to honestly ask what level of production he'd need and inflammatorily tagging people who you claim hate Bedard is just nonsense. You should well understand everything I just said. I don't need to give you a number because it shouldn't be about rooting for or against Bedard to hit a number. It should be about assessing the picture in front of us.

Agreed it is definitely about the bigger picture but you yourself said that “28 points in 25 games is disqualifying” to be in that conversation. So what number qualifies someone? Don’t make a statement about the numbers and then retreat when questioned.

 

[Gold Standard]

He's inching closer to a McDavid/Crosby level prospect. The skillset is definitely there to warrant that type of comparison. For sure the best I've seen since I saw McDavid as a 14 year old in the GTHL. Too bad that in the age of covid I haven't managed to get out west to see a player like him at the rink. Hopefully soon this is all over and I get to see him play a junior game before the bright lights of the NHL start calling.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

One thing to keep in mind when comparing McDavid’s and Bedard’s stats for their 16 year old seasons is that McDavid played on a significantly more skilled team. Like it isn’t even remotely close.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

One thing to keep in mind when comparing McDavid’s and Bedard’s stats for their 16 year old seasons is that McDavid played on a significantly more skilled team. Like it isn’t even remotely close.

Isn't Bedard only shooting like 3% or something right now too? I remember his shot generation chart being crazy for a 16 year old.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

One thing to keep in mind when comparing McDavid’s and Bedard’s stats for their 16 year old seasons is that McDavid played on a significantly more skilled team. Like it isn’t even remotely close.

Yeah something I brought up earlier. McDavid was not asked to be the guy on his team as a 16 year old at all. Obviously a big part of the team but that team had a handful of future NHL'ers that had great seasons. Bedard is straight up his teams top offensive option. It is him, Ryker Evans and a 15 year old Tanner Howe essentially lol

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

7g 13p in his last 4 WHL games, with a whopping 33 shots on goal.

The fact that he's still only shooting at 12.6% on the year tells you how snakebitten he's been. With his release, that number should honestly be somewhere between 18-22%.

I think we'll continue to see some upward regression to the mean for him, wouldn't be shocked to see him finish off the year near 1 goal per game and 1.5-2 points per game.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

7g 13p in his last 4 WHL games, with a whopping 33 shots on goal.

The fact that he's still only shooting at 12.6% on the year tells you how snakebitten he's been. With his release, that number should honestly be somewhere between 18-22%.

I think we'll continue to see some upward regression to the mean for him, wouldn't be shocked to see him finish off the year near 1 goal per game and 1.5-2 points per game.

20% seems too much even if he's a great scorer. I think 15-16 is realistic

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

20% seems too much even if he's a great scorer. I think 15-16 is realistic

Not really - look at someone like Alex Debrincat. He finished with 19% and 21% in each of his last 2 OHL seasons. Mangiapane at 24% in his last OHL season. Jarvis shot at 19% in is draft year WHL season.

Guys with elite releases should be shooting around 20% against junior goaltenders.

 

[TimeZone]

With puck on stick no one like McDavid since Bure. Bedard is still such a baby faced boy. I wonder how much more explosive his skating becomes as he matures? going to still be big improvements in his game, which is kind of amazing, considering how good he is already.

I agree when it comes to stick handling, however in a straight line/breakaway opportunity type of situation I think there are a couple of guys with a better top speed with or without the puck.

 

[TimeZone]

Personally I’ve been underwhelmed watching Michkov. I don’t see the generational talent like I see with Bedard.

He's certainly not as dynamic, but he does always seem to produce no matter where he's playing.

I wouldn't put one clearly above the other at this point.

 

[ORRFForever]

He's certainly not as dynamic, but he does always seem to produce no matter where he's playing.

I wouldn't put one clearly above the other at this point.

When I've seen him play, he was fantastic.

 

[ORRFForever]

Once the production catches up with the eye test/advanced analytics the @Pavel Buchnevich of the world will have a new angle to diminish his accomplishments.

P.B.'s reservations are valid. Posters should not take it personally.

The Kid will either be GREAT(!!!) or he won't - and nothing we write will change that.

I can't remember when I stopped growing but 18 seems to be the cut off for men so he's got another 1.5 years to add an inch or 2 or 3. Either way, from what I've seen, he will be special.

 

[TimeZone]

When I've seen him play, he was fantastic.

He's definitely very good, but doesn't fly up and down the ice to the extent Bedard does, he's more cerebral than Bedard.

 

[ORRFForever]

He's definitely very good, but doesn't fly up and down the ice to the extent Bedard does, he's more cerebral than Bedard.

That's fair. Neither he nor Bedard lack confidence. They know who's the best on the ice and they're not afraid to demand the puck.

 

[Tutu to]

He's certainly not as dynamic, but he does always seem to produce no matter where he's playing.

I wouldn't put one clearly above the other at this point.

That’s my assessment. He’s not particularly noticeable but will still finish the game with 3 points.