C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 2

[wetcoast]

How good will this kid be when he actually physically matures. He looks like he’s 12. He’s playing super smart to make up for his lack of (relative to his competition) strength. I’m see another Marcel Dionne level talent here.

Dionne might be the best comparison yet although I really hate comps.

 

[kyle44]

I’m pretty sure they counted a SOG that last shift. The shot went on net, even if his stock broke.

The point stands either way. You acknowledged he got a shift out of turn. Trying to make it seem like they weren’t trying late on to get him more goals is a little disingenuous. I’m sure there were plenty of good chances for any player because the Austrian players can’t defend. It doesn’t mean they would’ve made all those same plays if Bedard had 0 goals at the time. There was a concerted effort to try to get him more goals.

I usually enjoy your posts, but you’re picking some awful strange hills to die on lately. So what if he played one shift out of turn to break a Canadian record? He had 4 goals and 11 shots already at that point, most of which he created by himself; not from a concerted team effort to set up Bedard. And as another poster pointed out, he turned down a prime chance to pass off to Desnoyers in the dying seconds.

Sure it was Austria, but I can’t possibly understand how someone can watch that game and think his shot total was “exaggerated” because of other players actively trying to set up Bedard. He was literally 9th among Canadian forwards for TOI.

 

[prongertheman9]

I’m pretty sure they counted a SOG that last shift. The shot went on net, even if his stock broke.

The point stands either way. You acknowledged he got a shift out of turn. Trying to make it seem like they weren’t trying late on to get him more goals is a little disingenuous. I’m sure there were plenty of good chances for any player because the Austrian players can’t defend. It doesn’t mean they would’ve made all those same plays if Bedard had 0 goals at the time. There was a concerted effort to try to get him more goals.

What are you talking about? Bedard didn’t even know he was close to a record; pretty clear since he passed instead of shooting on the 2 on 1 at the end. And even if they did put him out for 1 extra shift in the 3rd, that would only give him 1 extra shot. So maybe exaggerated by 1 if you can even say that?

Did you watch the game or just highlights? You seem to describing a narrative made up in your head.

 

[EichelFan15]

I’m pretty sure they counted a SOG that last shift. The shot went on net, even if his stock broke.

The point stands either way. You acknowledged he got a shift out of turn. Trying to make it seem like they weren’t trying late on to get him more goals is a little disingenuous. I’m sure there were plenty of good chances for any player because the Austrian players can’t defend. It doesn’t mean they would’ve made all those same plays if Bedard had 0 goals at the time. There was a concerted effort to try to get him more goals.

Wow you are grasping at straws. You clearly have a bone to pick with the kid for no reason… dare I say a bias?

either way you’ve lost all credibility

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I usually enjoy your posts, but you’re picking some awful strange hills to die on lately. So what if he played one shift out of turn to break a Canadian record? He had 4 goals and 11 shots already at that point, most of which he created by himself; not from a concerted team effort to set up Bedard. And as another poster pointed out, he turned down a prime chance to pass off to Desnoyers in the dying seconds.

Sure it was Austria, but I can’t possibly understand how someone can watch that game and think his shot total was “exaggerated” because of other players actively trying to set up Bedard. He was literally 9th among Canadian forwards for TOI.

I’m merely responding to the questioning someone had about my post. I’m not dying on a hill. Someone objected to what I said about this, not the other way around.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What are you talking about? Bedard didn’t even know he was close to a record; pretty clear since he passed instead of shooting on the 2 on 1 at the end. And even if they did put him out for 1 extra shift in the 3rd, that would only give him 1 extra shot. So maybe exaggerated by 1 if you can even say that?

Did you watch the game or just highlights? You seem to describing a narrative made up in your head.

I said nothing about what he did. I said the team was trying to get him extra shots and goals. Yes, I watched the game. I make clear what I watch and what I don’t.

 

[ponder]

The SOG number is exaggerated. Once he got two, they were trying to get him the puck to break records instead of making the best hockey play. It was that type of game where it was over after the first period because Austria was never going to come from behind from more than one or two.

I think Bedard has shown very obvious elite offensive potential. He maybe can’t carry a WHL at age 16, and his 15 year old season numbers were a fluky start, but I think it’d be stupid to say he doesn’t have obvious star scorer potential for the NHL. He has an elite shot, attacks the middle, dangles well, is a good passer, and an above average skater.

Where I worry though is his physical and positional projection. I know people are going to go crazy with the usual comments, but any prospect that is shorter than 5’10 in their D-2 is someone that you have to mention their size as a potential limiting factor. There simply aren’t top six centers in the NHL that are shorter than 5’10. If Bedard doesn’t grow, which can’t be a given, he’d have to be an outlier to play center. Maybe he can be due to his scoring talent, but that point has to be acknowledged.

I don’t find his skating to be as good as I initially thought either. It’s good, but I wouldn’t say it’s elite. It’s probably good enough for an undersized forward, potentially for center where you generally need to be a better skater, but I wouldn’t call him a blazing skater. And I don’t know that I’d hold it against him that he’s pretty average physically and with his two way game at his age, but at some point it will need to improve to project as any more than a pure scoring guy at the NHL level.

This is all to say that I think he will be really good, but it’d be stupid to ignore that his game and current projection has clear flaws. If you have decided he’ll be generational, logic probably isn’t what you are looking for. The kid is an exciting prospect, but if anyone is expecting this guy to replace Crosby and McDavid eventually as the face of the league, I think you are mistaken or the next generation of players isn’t as good as the current one.

Bedard is 16, it's pretty unlikely he's done growing. Here's the CDC's data on male height by age. So on average, you can except a male to grow ~3.5 cm from 16 to 20 (or ~1.4") - a 50th percentile American male is 173.5 cm at 16 (5' 8.3"), 177 cm at 20 (5' 9.7").

You mentioned Crosby and McDavid, and I agree he's not quite on their level as a prospect, but he's not too far off. Matthews/Tavares/Eichel level IMO (I also have Michkov on this level). And on the topic of Crosby and McDavid:

• Crosby at 16 was 5'10", 185 lbs (source)
  • Grew to 5'11", 200 lbs by his early 20s (+1", +15 lbs)
• McDavid at 16 was 5'11", 170 lbs (source)
  • Grew to 6'1", 193 lbs by his early 20s (+2", +23 lbs)

These aren't exceptional amounts of growth, very standard. Bedard is currently 5'9", 181 lbs, just 1" and 4 lbs smaller than same-age Crosby. 2" shorter than same-age McDavid, but actually 11 lbs heavier - he's pretty strong for his age. If he grows similar to Crosby/McDavid (and similar to most 16 year old males), 1-2" and 15-23 lbs, he'd end up 5'10"-5'11", 196-204 lbs, which should be just fine given his elite skillset. There's no guarantee he grows another 1" (or more), but it's pretty likely. It'd be surprising if early 20s Bedard isn't at least 5'10", 190 lbs.

As for his skating, I personally find it to be elite. Straight line speed is excellent - not McDavid/MacKinnon level, but the next tier down. His edges/agility are clearly elite, so quick and fluid changing directions, and picks up a tonne of speed on crossovers. Really strong on his skates too. Overall I'd rank him a very similar skater to same-age Crosby. Also, very importantly, his puck control and decision making remains elite at top speed - a rare skill that elite NHL forwards tend to have.

 

[The Puckhound]

People get way too invested in nit-picking flaws trying to sound knowledgeable.. no he’s not perfect and yes it was Austria but I don’t know how someone could watch that performance and not be excited. His potential as a goal-scorer and playmaker is extremely high. Hopefully him and Michkov both reach their ceiling

 

[Oan]

Tournament MVP.

 

[95snipes]

I don’t even know what you are criticizing from my post. I believe he looks like a very good prospect, but has some flaws I explained, that will keep him from being generational. Do you think he’ll be generational?

For the record, you are not the only poster who feels this way and I agree with you. I believe his skating is good, but not elite 'enough' at his size that it prevents him from being a generational tier of prospect. Still a very, very good player though.

 

[austin63867]

Reading the comments from yesterday's game makes me think some of y'all hate hockey

 

[Stephen]

But Johnson and Marchessault are not top six centers now. Gourde, I guess may be one. On an expansion team and he barely has reached 200 career points at age 30, but it’s not a terrible example.

Does it prevent Bedard? Probably not, but it’s not something that can be ignored. There are almost never top 6 centers below 5’10. At any given time, there are 0 or 1. And people have been saying Rossi will also be a top six center. I’ll take Bedard over Rossi as more likely to be a top six center, but the point is that these guys aren’t common for a reason.

Comparing Bedard's upside to Gourde, Johnson and Marchessault on the basis of height is like comparison 6'3" Andrei Vasilevskiy to 6'3" Garrett Sparks to come to some understanding of what makes a number one goaltender. Aka it's leaving everything important out of the equation.

There aren't many elite number one centermen in the game anyway, and in an ideal world you want them to be as big and strong as possible. If Bedard follows a pretty typical growth curve he could reasonably be a Sebastian Aho sized center, and if not he's already Brayden Point size. In terms of impact forwards, I don't see size being a factor for a guy like Kirill Kaprizov.

 

[Sweetpotato]

People over blow size for Savoie and Bedard. Dudes are short but they're not small and will only get bigger. Think Crosby or Yakupov physically, built like brick shit houses.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Comparing Bedard's upside to Gourde, Johnson and Marchessault on the basis of height is like comparison 6'3" Andrei Vasilevskiy to 6'3" Garrett Sparks to come to some understanding of what makes a number one goaltender. Aka it's leaving everything important out of the equation.

There aren't many elite number one centermen in the game anyway, and in an ideal world you want them to be as big and strong as possible. If Bedard follows a pretty typical growth curve he could reasonably be a Sebastian Aho sized center, and if not he's already Brayden Point size. In terms of impact forwards, I don't see size being a factor for a guy like Kirill Kaprizov.

The only thing I object to is saying he’s Brayden Point’s size. You can say he’s close enough, but there’s a reason why 5’10 seems to be the height one must reach. I’m not an expert in genetics or hockey, but I can read data, like any of you. 5’10 seems to be a be a big cut-off point. It can’t be ignored because statistically it’s an important trend in the league.

 

[Stephen]

The only thing I object to is saying he’s Brayden Point’s size. You can say he’s close enough, but there’s a reason why 5’10 seems to be the height one must reach. I’m not an expert in genetics or hockey, but I can read data, like any of you. 5’10 seems to be a be a big cut-off point. It can’t be ignored because statistically it’s an important trend in the league.

Size trends are important, but more so if we're talking about your average plug and play replacement level guys who fill certain functions where size is more of a concern or you have greater selection between ideal size and not ideal size. If you're trying to fill out a third line, by all means, a 6'3" guy is probably a better bet than your average 5'9" guy.

But there's limits to that kind of evaluation when it comes to unique talents. Adam Fox is 5'11". Is that ideal for a number one defenseman? Probably not on paper but I don't think Ranger fans are complaining.

Don't get me wrong, if there's a 6'2" version of Connor Bedard with the same skillset I'd take him over the regular Bedard but size shouldn't be a real factor here.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Size trends are important, but more so if we're talking about your average plug and play replacement level guys who fill certain functions where size is more of a concern or you have greater selection between ideal size and not ideal size. If you're trying to fill out a third line, by all means, a 6'3" guy is probably a better bet than your average 5'9" guy.

But there's limits to that kind of evaluation when it comes to unique talents. Adam Fox is 5'11". Is that ideal for a number one defenseman? Probably not on paper but I don't think Ranger fans are complaining.

Don't get me wrong, if there's a 6'2" version of Connor Bedard with the same skillset I'd take him over the regular Bedard but size shouldn't be a real factor here.

I think we agree. Bedard is probably the exception, but it’s a relevant factor he will have to overcome. I think it’s a fair criticism to point out at this point.

 

[ponder]

The only thing I object to is saying he’s Brayden Point’s size. You can say he’s close enough, but there’s a reason why 5’10 seems to be the height one must reach. I’m not an expert in genetics or hockey, but I can read data, like any of you. 5’10 seems to be a be a big cut-off point. It can’t be ignored because statistically it’s an important trend in the league.

In his draft year, when Point was 17, he was 5’9”, 160 lbs: Brayden Point: 2014 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Can’t find what he was at 16, probably around 5’8”, 150 lbs? Regardless, 16 year old Bedard is already bigger than Point was a 17 - same height, and 11 lbs heavier.

See my comment above, guys on average grow ~1.4” from 16 to 20, so most grow 1-2”. Bedard will likely end up 5’10”-5’11”, and he’s already 181 lbs, so probably around 200 lbs. Likely very similar height and build to guys like Crosby and Duchene, and a similar height but a lot stronger/stockier than guys like Point and Giroux.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

In his draft year, when Point was 17, he was 5’9”, 160 lbs: Brayden Point: 2014 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Can’t find what he was at 16, probably around 5’8”, 150 lbs? Regardless, 16 year old Bedard was the same height as 17 year old Point, and significantly stronger/stockier (17 year old point was 170 lbs, 16 year old Bedard 181 lbs).

See my comment above, guys on average grow ~1.4” from 16 to 20, so most grow 1-2”. Bedard will likely end up 5’10”-5’11”, and he’s already 181 lbs, so probably around 200 lbs.

Your comment is sensible, but neither of us are Bedard’s endocrinologist. It’s a concern until it’s not. He may be 6’1 or he may be 5’9. We will find out in a few years.

 

[ponder]

Your comment is sensible, but neither of us are Bedard’s endocrinologist. It’s a concern until it’s not. He may be 6’1 or he may be 5’9. We will find out in a few years.

Yeah, it’s possible he doesn’t grow any more, but it’s unlikely. Most prospects (and men in general) who end up around 5’10”-5-11” were ~5’9” at Bedard’s. For a 16 year old forward, he looks below average size, but not tiny - similar to same age Crosby/Duchene (an inch shorter but same-ish weight), bigger than same age Point/Giroux/Datsyuk (same height or taller, and much heavier).

Evaluating prospects is obviously all about making predictions/projections, so projecting average growth seems like a reasonable default. For example, if you're dealing with a 5'9" 14 year old, I don't think you'd see his height as a "concern until it's not" - obviously he's going to grow more. For a 16 year old, it's easier to think "he's probably about done height-wise", but the data doesn't really back that up - average growth from 16 to 20 is 1-2", and 0.5" or less would be quite low.

I think the most reasonable/likely projection for Bedard's size in his early 20s is around 5’10”-5-11” and 190-205 lbs. He'll likely be small-ish but not tiny - similar in size to a bunch of the best centres in the league in recent history (Crosby, Point, Giroux, Datsyuk, etc.), with elite skill too. Not Yanni Gourde or Tyler Johnson size - he's already as big or bigger than these guys today, and very significantly bigger than they were at 16.

 

[EichelFan15]

Yeah, it’s possible he doesn’t grow any more, but it’s unlikely. Most prospects (and men in general) who end up around 5’10”-5-11” were ~5’9” at Bedard’s. For a 16 year old forward, he looks below average size, but not tiny - similar to same age Crosby/Duchene (an inch shorter but similar weight), bigger than same age Point/Giroux/Datsyuk (same height or an inch taller, and much heavier).

Evaluating prospects is obviously all about making predictions/projections, so projecting average growth seems like a reasonable default.

Should be noted that he already has tree trunks for legs

 

[rocketdan9]

What is Bedard ceiling

Pat Kane or Fleury or St Louis?

 

[Zach716]

What is Bedard ceiling

Pat Kane or Fleury or St Louis?

Top 1-3 center in the league

 

[Gold Standard]

Let's hope the situation is better in the spring for U18 tournament in Germany. And Bedard needs to be on that team.

 

[Heldig]

Future franshise player.

 

[Jabba11]

So much tease from TVAsports and Connor's dad hahaha But, his roots are from Quebec! Hopefully he can be our next franchise player. Wishful thinking!

Connor Bedard avec le CH: «ce serait incroyable» -Son père - TVA Sports