C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6

[authentic]

Do you mean peaks for these guys as Karlsson stands out on this list by

1) not playing in the NHL in his d+1 year and

2)In his D+2 year he played in the AHL and wasn't exactly anything special in the NHL.

Yeah I meant currently not as rookies

 

[Mathieukferland]

He's a borderline case like Matthews, Lafreniere, Hughes, Dahlin, Eichel

If you watched all these guys in their junior careers and think they were anywhere close to Bédard, I’m sorry but your view is completely off. I would go as far to say bedard was better in junior than McDavid (I don’t think his game translates as well to the NHL, as McDavid is perhaps the most talented player of all time, but I regress), and that he’s closer to being in a discussion with Gretzky/Lemieux/Crosby in terms of pre draft status than he is with the group you mention.

 

[prongertheman9]

This whole discussion is subjective. There's nothing objective about it. You saying Bedard is generational is a "you know it when you see it" type of argument.

It's not like there's some mathematical generational numerical value you can plug into a computer to see if a player has hit it.

How is it meaningless to discuss how to define generational and how to arrive at conclusions about what constitutes it? A subjective opinion is the only way for anyone to possibly hold an opinion that someone is (or isn't).

Canada WJC team at 16 and averaging 2.5+ ppg in the CHL at 17 seem to be the recipe so far for generational.

 

[JackSlater]

It's good to have dissenting opinions that are at least backed up. I'll say this as well, it's a lot more art than science when it comes to identifying the "generational" players. They always score a ton but you need to see something. Lindros was a generational prospect because of his unmatched combination of power and skill, not just because he led the OHL in scoring. Same with McDavid's skating. Crosby is a bit harder to peg but he processed the game at a different speed than everyone else and ultimately he dominated the CHL to a higher degree, even when it was loaded in 2005. Even Lemieux didn't lead the QMJHL in scoring as a 17 year old - a different 17 year old (Lafontaine, roughly six months older) did, and someone named Claude Verret also outscored him.

I lean toward thinking that Bedard is more of a Matthews than a McDavid based on what I've seen, talking about impact in the NHL, but if he's a real generational player then all the better.

 

[wetcoast]

CHL player of the year doesn't equal dominant, it simply means the best that year. Many guys in the NHL have won MVP awards without dominanting their peers.

Plus the most important year is your draft year. Scouts but way more weight on this year then any other. Because these are 15-17 yo kids who all grow mature at different rates. So look at the players draft year. For example John Tavares was considered a possible *generational talent" at 15. But he was a kid that was very mature at a younger age then most kids. He didn't really make those steps forward. His actual draft year he was worse then his previous seasons. Teams fond ways to limit him and he hadn't really progressed at all.

So let's break down Laf vs Bedard during their DY.
Bedard 57gp 71g 72a 143p
Laf- 52gp 35g 77a 112
Laf was 13 points ahead of 2nd, with 1 more game played.
Bedard was 36 points ahead of 2nd, while playing in 11 less games. If you projected those 11 games Bedard would have a 60+ point difference to the next guy.

This just straight math. Bedard dominanted over his completion. Laf was not close to Bedard level domination.

It's not even just this like you point out but the draft year for Laf had maybe 1 or 2 other guys in top 10 scoring that might make the NHL, Bedard arguably has at least 5 and maybe more.

It was more an apples to oranges comaprision than an apple to apple one, Bedard really stood out head and shoulders above Laf in his draft year.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

58 pages - hilarious.

Let me give credit where it's due - mad props to Pavel. Without his dedication to his game this thread would never had crested 20 pages. Well done sir.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

58 pages - hilarious.

Let me give credit where it's due - mad props to Pavel. Without his dedication to his game this thread would never had crested 20 pages. Well done sir.

Well actually, I spoke too much truth on other topics and haven’t been able to participate from since the thread was started until last Friday.

 

[jj cale]

Well, it's o.k to debate, I think PB made some good points and some good counter arguments were presented,

It's fine to think Bedard may not be generational, after all, there is only so many and he hasn't even stepped on the ice to play an NHL game yet.

All eyes will be on Bedard this season and the intensity of the viewpoints is only gonna heat up depending on his performance next year, as long as there isn't insults being hurled back and forth he should be a fun player to talk about in his inaugural tour around the league.

To be honest i've had at the very least a small shred of doubt when it's come to every supernova prospect that has entered the league, even McJesus. You ain't done it until you've actually done it.

 

[Mathieukferland]

as long as there isn't insults being hurled back and forth

Be fortunate in regard to this that he is Connor Bedard from Vancouver British Columbia and not Conrad Bedärinen from Turku Finland, that’s when prospect threads go off the rails

 

[jj cale]

Be fortunate in regard to this that he is Connor Bedard from Vancouver British Columbia and not Conrad Bedärinen from Turku Finland, that’s when prospect threads go off the rails

I've seen some doozys in that regard but not sure they are really any worse then when fans of the other countries get their back up over their golden boys.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Well actually, I spoke too much truth on other topics and haven’t been able to participate from since the thread was started until last Friday.

Humility too. Your reputation precedes you sir. You've earned the flowers.

 

[ijuka]

It's not like there's some mathematical generational numerical value you can plug into a computer to see if a player has hit it.

Team Canada all-time u-20s as u-18 player:

1. Connor Bedard 23
2. Wayne Gretzky 17
3. Eric Lindros 17
4. Connor Mcdavid 11
5. Mario Lemieux 10
6. Sidney Crosby 9

How many models could more accurately predict whether or not a player is generational, I wonder?

And of course, it's not a guarantee, but just think about it. All those players by Team Canada in history. How many made the team at 18? How many were the team's best player? And not just the best player, Bedard scored over twice as many points as the second-best player on the team.

Dylan Guenther for example has been at nearly 0.5 points per game in NHL, yet Connor Bedard scored over twice as many points on the same team - 2 years younger.

 

[prongertheman9]

Well, it's o.k to debate, I think PB made some good points and some good counter arguments were presented,

It's fine to think Bedard may not be generational, after all, there is only so many and he hasn't even stepped on the ice to play an NHL game yet.

All eyes will be on Bedard this season and the intensity of the viewpoints is only gonna heat up depending on his performance next year, as long as there isn't insults being hurled back and forth he should be a fun player to talk about in his inaugural tour around the league.

To be honest i've had at the very least a small shred of doubt when it's come to every supernova prospect that has entered the league, even McJesus. You ain't done it until you've actually done it.

I have absolutely zero problem with anyone thinking that Bedard will not be a generational player at the NHL level. He definitely has the least obvious path to becoming so out his comparables in Crosby and McDavid. But to definitively say his pre-NHL body of work is any less impressive than Sid and McD is either wrong or disingenuous. And to group him in with Lafreniere, Hughes and Eichel, etc. as a prospect is just plain negligent.

As someone who has watched every game he has played since he entered the WHL as a 15 year old (including international play) this is my take:

A LOT of his game will have to change to succeed at the NHL level. He will put up points from the start, but like McDavid there will be a huge difference from having big statistical seasons and leading his team to the playoffs and beyond.

Among my concerns:

Footspeed/first step - his skating is fine and his edges elite but in junior as a centre he relied on deep regroups below his own D so that he could get the puck at top gear and overwhelm his opponent. He is incredibly hard to stop when he has the puck in full flight but in the NHL it will be a lot harder to get the time and space to do so. Even though he dominated the WJC’s, I found him playing wing and getting the puck on the half wall at a standstill to really mute his rush offense unless he cheated.

Long shifts, decision making, etc. - playing for such a bad team in Regina and being relied on so heavily for offense really harboured some bad habits. 2 minute shifts, dangling as the last man back, and taking low percentage shots are just a few of things that he will be forced to change at the next level.

All that said, he literally always adapts and finds a way to deliver. And not just deliver but deliver in the biggest moments. Has there honestly ever been a prospect who has clutched up time and time again like Bedard has? Every single time. There are no certainties and a lot of reasons Bedard might not reach generation status when it’s all said and said and done but given what we’ve seen at this point would you really bet against him?
I sure as hell won’t be.

 

[ijif]

Haha. You are just being straight up stupid now. Sorry no other way to put it.

You have some litte excuse for everything Bedard accomplished, it is WJC-20 watered down, WHL is watered down, the sky is now green , yada yada.

Here is a statistic fact. Bedard is the only 17 year old to lead the WJC-20 in points this century. But let me guess it was a conspiracy, all teams got together and just allowed him to score right?

Just stick to your eye test and stop debating actual numbers cause your math sucks.

Team Canada all-time u-20s as u-18 player:

1. Connor Bedard 23
2. Wayne Gretzky 17
3. Eric Lindros 17
4. Connor Mcdavid 11
5. Mario Lemieux 10
6. Sidney Crosby 9

How many models could more accurately predict whether or not a player is generational, I wonder?

And of course, it's not a guarantee, but just think about it. All those players by Team Canada in history. How many made the team at 18? How many were the team's best player? And not just the best player, Bedard scored over twice as many points as the second-best player on the team.

Dylan Guenther for example has been at nearly 0.5 points per game in NHL, yet Connor Bedard scored over twice as many points on the same team - 2 years younger.

I think it needs to be noted that while Bedard does lead this u20 list, and he might be the only 17 year old player to lead the tournament in points, that is likely only because Gretzky did not play as a U18 player. Gretzky lead the tourney when he was 16 years old!

Here are the U17 leaders all time (only PPG players)
1. Wayne Gretzky 17 in 6
2. Robert Reichel 11 in 7
3. Connor Bedard 8 in 7

This takes nothing away from Bedard, but it just shows that Gretzky was really something else.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I think he will be a really good player, just not held in the same regard as Mack or Matthews.

I also don’t think hes a center at the next level. People keep pointing at Brayden Point but:
1. Point has 2 inches on Bedard
2. He plays way more of a gritty game than Bedard

I won’t be surprised if he doesn’t put up the gaudy numbers everyone is expecting him to next season. It will be a transition for him. The NHL is a grown man’s league. He also won’t be able to beat goalies as clean as he normally could in juniors. People expecting 80+ points from him are delusional. Granted he will get to see a lot of backup goalies next year because the Hawks will be terrible

Why are Canadian posters obsessed with trying to convince us that Bedard is a McDavid/Crosby level prospect.

His ceiling isn’t as high as Mackinnon or Matthews who are truly elite big strong fast centers. We still don’t even know if Bedard will be a center at the next level.

And what is this based off of, just your hunch?

I haven't seen anyone in the industry raise this point as a possibility.

 

[bigdog16]

And what is this based off of, just your hunch?

I haven't seen any scout or anyone in the industry raise this point.

I think his skill set is far better suited on the wing. And yes I think he struggles at center in the NHL.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I think his skill set is far better suited on the wing. And yes I think he struggles at center in the NHL.

The guy regularly carries the puck up the guts of the ice, getting to the middle and the high danger areas, where he uses the shot to score goals and to set plays up. Why would he be better off on the wing?

And why would he struggle at center according to you?

 

[Vasilevskiy]

I think his skill set is far better suited on the wing. And yes I think he struggles at center in the NHL.

I think his game is better suited for winger too, and it would be smarter to maximize his unreal offensive skills too, especially the first few years of his NHL career. Not sure he would struggle at center but I think is not the most efficient way of deploying him.

 

[bigdog16]

The guy regularly carries the puck up the guts of the ice, getting to the middle and the high danger areas, where he uses the shot to score goals and to set plays up. Why would he be better off on the wing?

And why would he struggle at center according to you?

That kind of reinforces my point. His average skating will not allow him to do that at the NHL level.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

That kind of reinforces my point. His average skating will not allow him to do that at the NHL level.

This is laughable honestly. He's a very good skater, coupled with his other skills like being able to handle the puck at speed and while cutting, and keeping his head up while doing it and seeing the ice, his skating will be an asset to him in the show, far from a detriment.

I think his game is better suited for winger too, and it would be smarter to maximize his unreal offensive skills too, especially the first few years of his NHL career. Not sure he would struggle at center but I think is not the most efficient way of deploying him.

Couldn't disagree more. The guy attacks and gets to the middle of the ice and the high danger areas of the ice with the best of them. And obviously a center is more valuable than a wing. Would make no sense to move him unless it's temporary and you are trying to ease him into the NHL to start.

 

[daver]

Bedard has that "it" factor that like Wayne and Crosby make you wonder how they keep putting up points when they didn't didn't appear to visually dominate the game like a McDavid, OV, Jagr or Mario.

He notably has a quick strike shot that draws defenders to him that I think he will leverage into elite playmaking.

 

[bigdog16]

This is laughable honestly. He's a very good skater, coupled with his other skills like being able to handle the puck at speed and while cutting, and keeping his head up while doing it and seeing the ice, his skating will be an asset to him in the show, far from a detriment.



Couldn't disagree more. The guy attacks and gets to the middle of the ice and the high danger areas of the ice with the best of them. And obviously a center is more valuable than a wing. Would make no sense to move him unless it's temporary and you are trying to ease him into the NHL to start.

Man theres like 5 pages of us going back and forth on this. Im not going to get into it again. We are just going to have to disagree with eachother.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Considering the difference in scoring, 82 points for Bedard would be about equivalent to Nathan MacKinnon's rookie season. Is that really unrealistically high for Bedard?

It's certainly not unrealistic but i don't think it should just be presumed he'll hit that or even come very close to it, either.

 

[Happyhary9]

Man theres like 5 pages of us going back and forth on this. Im not going to get into it again. We are just going to have to disagree with eachother.

You do realize it is like you and like 5 random HF/twitter scouts in the whole world that actually believe he is an "average skater". Not a single professional scout says that at all.

If your take is Bedard is an average skater it is really hard to take anything you say about Bedard seriously.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I don't see any Wayne or Crosby sorry