Confirmed with Link: Buchnevich to Blues

[Prosaic]

If you aren’t excited about this, get excited:

Breaking Down the Pavel Buchnevich Trade Using Analytics

It’s crazy people go nuts about Landeskog and the Blues just got a player who projects a lot better.

 

[stl76]

If you aren’t excited about this, get excited:

Breaking Down the Pavel Buchnevich Trade Using Analytics

It’s crazy people go nuts about Landeskog and the Blues just got a player who projects a lot better.

I'm as excited about this trade as anyone, but that JFresh guy posts some of the worst hot takes I've ever seen. I mean, his description of Blais is laughable. Defence first forward...what?

I take anything that guy thinks or posts with an enormous grain of salt.

EDIT: perfect example of that asshat abusing statistics...



Gee, you think this might be because Slavin plays insanely difficult defensive minutes so of course Hamilton's offensive stats took a hit when he played with Slavin?

Slavin sans Hamilton (18/19 - 20/21): 46.09 OZ%
Hamilton sans Slavin (18/19 - 20/21): 54.4 OZ%

Gee, maybe that important context has something to do with these stats...guess we'll never know tho because instead of actually understanding and properly explaining these numbers, JFresh just wants to post pretty pictures and collect the likes and re-tweets.

Sorry for the rant, this stuff just drives me nuts and I'm over caffeinated watching the draft this morning

 

[Prosaic]

I'm as excited about this trade as anyone, but that JFresh guy posts some of the worst hot takes I've ever seen. I mean, his description of Blais is laughable. Defence first forward...what?

I take anything that guy thinks or posts with an enormous grain of salt.

EDIT: perfect example of that asshat abusing statistics...



Gee, you think this might be because Slavin plays insanely difficult defensive minutes so of course Hamilton's offensive stats took a hit when he played with Slavin?

Slavin sans Hamilton (18/19 - 20/21): 46.09 OZ%
Hamilton sans Slavin (18/19 - 20/21): 54.4 OZ%

Gee, maybe that important context has something to do with these stats...guess we'll never know tho because instead of actually understanding and properly explaining these numbers, JFresh just wants to post pretty pictures and collect the likes and re-tweets.

Sorry for the rant, this stuff just drives me nuts and I'm over caffeinated watching the draft this morning

Analytics are an attempt at quantifying on-ice value and genuinely are reliable.

In the surface Blais doesn’t seem like a defensive minded winger but consistently posting poor on-ice offensive results and decent but unspectacular defensive results is probably what led to that conclusion.

I think it’s important to keep in mind that any statistical probability assessment of anything is predicative and not absolute.

I’m not necessarily defending this particular guys takes mostly because I generally don’t know what his takes are. All I’m saying is he is only projecting what the numbers, an unbiased, incorruptible system says of a player.

 

[542365]

Analytics are an attempt at quantifying on-ice value and genuinely are reliable.

In the surface Blais doesn’t seem like a defensive minded winger but consistently posting poor on-ice offensive results and decent but unspectacular defensive results is probably what led to that conclusion.

I think it’s important to keep in mind that any statistical probability assessment of anything is predicative and not absolute.

I’m not necessarily defending this particular guys takes mostly because I generally don’t know what his takes are. All I’m saying is he is only projecting what the numbers, an unbiased, incorruptible system says of a player.

The numbers may be objective, but the way in which they are presented often aren’t. That leads to many “analytic darlings” who don’t actually improve their team on the ice.

 

[stl76]

Analytics are an attempt at quantifying on-ice value and genuinely are reliable.

In the surface Blais doesn’t seem like a defensive minded winger but consistently posting poor on-ice offensive results and decent but unspectacular defensive results is probably what led to that conclusion.

I think it’s important to keep in mind that any statistical probability assessment of anything is predicative and not absolute.

I’m not necessarily defending this particular guys takes mostly because I generally don’t know what his takes are. All I’m saying is he is only projecting what the numbers, an unbiased, incorruptible system says of a player.

Was not trying to criticize you in particular or analytics in general.

I'm a big believer in analytics generally speaking, but analytics are only as valuable as the context that comes with them. Analytics without proper context can be extremely misleading; analytics with proper context can elucidate crucial information that gets overlooked with a traditional "eye test".

 

[simon IC]

Let's keep the discussion about the trade and not other fanbases. Please be advised, visiting other team's boards and posting disrespectfully can be considered trolling, and will be dealt with accordingly.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Man, I keep going back and forth on which is a bigger issue-RD or LD.

I think RD is because Krug needs a partner and ideally you'd bump Scandella down to 3rd pair and have Bortuzzo/Mikkola as your extra(s).

Other part of me could see value in getting a LD to pair with Faulk.

Ideally, I think we grab a young, capable top-4 LHD to pair with either Faulk or Parayko… like Noah Hanifin. Not sure where this player is coming from, though, and my guess is that we don’t really address it this year.

 

[DatDude44]

Buch-Eichel-Kostin will be a fun line

 

[Robb_K]

Buch-Eichel-Kostin will be a fun line

The Blues are less likely to get Eichel than Landeskog, and they're not likely to get Landeskog.

 

[MissouriMook]

The Blues are less likely to get Eichel than Landeskog, and they're not likely to get Landeskog.

Come on, Robb, let us dream.

 

[Novacain]

Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.

 

[AVictoryDive]

Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.

Supposedly he’s still in Russia and his agent said they’d talk more after the draft

 

[Oberyn]

Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.

In this flat cap world, I don't see many teams that would be willing to give him a large enough offer sheet. The Blues acquired him 3 days ago and there have been negotiations ongoing so I'm not too worried. Armstrong is probably more focused on the first day of FA before he really starts dialing in on the RFAs that need to be signed.

 

[tfriede2]

Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.

Not worried, and not the slightest bit concerned about an offer sheet.

 

[EdJovanovski]

He's missed 4 games in the last 2 seasons.

And 1 of which was a suspension

 

[Brian39]

Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.

Not worried about an offer sheet. Threshold for getting a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is $6.166M. We would unquestionably match anything less than that. So the worst case scenario is that he gets offered a contract above $6.166M, we let him walk and essentially just traded a 2nd and Blais for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

The Rangers almost certainly did this deal because they felt his contract demands were too high (and are worried about an arbitration award). We are probably going to have to write a big check to sign him, but an offer sheet is the least of my concerns. I think we can get a deal done at $7M AAV on a long term deal (probably not max-term).

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets the Krug deal

 

[MissouriMook]

I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets the Krug deal

Isn't that the Faulk deal?

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Isn't that the Faulk deal?

Yes

 

[Reality Czech]

Come on, Robb, let us dream.

You took the words out of my mouth!

 

[Robb_K]

Not worried about an offer sheet. Threshold for getting a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is $6.166M. We would unquestionably match anything less than that. So the worst case scenario is that he gets offered a contract above $6.166M, we let him walk and essentially just traded a 2nd and Blais for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

The Rangers almost certainly did this deal because they felt his contract demands were too high (and are worried about an arbitration award). We are probably going to have to write a big check to sign him, but an offer sheet is the least of my concerns. I think we can get a deal done at $7M AAV on a long term deal (probably not max-term).

I hope it is only $6.5M AAV for 5 years.

 

[Mike Liut]

I hope it is only $6.5M AAV for 5 years.

I’m hoping for 7 yrs 42 mill

 

[simon IC]

I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets the Krug deal

The difference being Buch would actually be worth it.

 

[Ranksu]

Isn't that the Faulk deal?

Well knowing his potential and knowing what we got. I'm totally fine with that. Slap NMC too. You pay best players not B level boys.

 

[Ranksu]

Blais + 2nd <-> buch is perfect example how you upgrade your roster.

NOT DOWNGRADE IT.