SA16
Sixstring
If a player is BPA on one team's draft board and not there on anyone elses the one team is probably wrong.
News Article: Brooks speaks with Dolan.
- Thread starter rangers1314
- Start date
- Jul 20, 2005
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- 2,340
1) BPA and highest ceiling are not the same thing. I don’t think Lias had the highest ceiling. But he might have been the guy most likely to eventually be an impact player in the NHL.
2) Its just my opinion but I don’t the McDonagh trade had anything to do with leadership. I think it had to do with McDonagh being 30 next summer and potentially getting a contract that the team regrets sooner rather than later. McDonagh isn’t the sturdiest player in his 20s. I can’t see that trending in a good direction. The rest is just fluff. Talking points for the media and ownership. They traded Callahan for the same reason and he’s the kind of captain that people who hated McDonagh as captain probably adored.
FireGerardGallant
The Artist Formerly known as FireDavidQuinn
- Mar 19, 2016
- 6,656
- 7,576
People still complaining about where these players were drafted are ridiculous. The draft has been over for almost a year now, all that matters from this point forward is how these players continue to develop, and Lias has had a very promising D+1 year. Let's see where his development progresses
GeorgeKaplan
Registered User
Problem with this is we’ll never know what most teams draft boards look like
- Aug 5, 2010
- 13,882
- 9,514
Nope. It is hard to see it at the top of the first round but it’s clearly pronounced in later rounds - one team’s draft board (in terms of ability to make the right selection instead of following consensus) is what separates a successful franchise from not so.
SA16
Sixstring
Drafts have been shown to be almost entirely random and over the long term, in all sports, there's roughly zero teams that have shown any consistency in being good at it. All they really show is the teams with the best success are just the teams that accumulate the most picks.
If the Rangers though Lundqvist was this super prospect why did they draft 7 players (including one goalie) ahead of him in the same draft? Why did Dallas take four guys before Jamie Benn? Why did the Flames take 3 guys before Gaudreau? They don't have any secrets that lets them find these hidden guys nobody knows about if they thought that way they would take them way earlier instead of risking someone else gets them first. It's just a numbers/luck game at this level. An NHL team would destroy mein a draft since I'm not a prospects expert but you're looking at a pool of 30 teams of experts that all have similar information.
Here's one article about the NFL - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/
If the Rangers though Lundqvist was this super prospect why did they draft 7 players (including one goalie) ahead of him in the same draft? Why did Dallas take four guys before Jamie Benn? Why did the Flames take 3 guys before Gaudreau? They don't have any secrets that lets them find these hidden guys nobody knows about if they thought that way they would take them way earlier instead of risking someone else gets them first. It's just a numbers/luck game at this level. An NHL team would destroy mein a draft since I'm not a prospects expert but you're looking at a pool of 30 teams of experts that all have similar information.
Here's one article about the NFL - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/
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Machinehead
Fox Mafia Consigliere
ReggieDunlop68
hey hanrahan!
Although not a guarantee, the precision of picks over time does increase substantially the higher you pick.
It gets into this accuracy vs. precision issue.
Let's say a team O picks in the top 5 for a decade. It's possible they could pick all duds, but if you amalgamated the picks of all teams picking in the top 3, picking studs over duds in the tops 5 would be overwhelmingly precise even if team O [fine okay the Oilers] were incredibly inaccurate with their top 3 picks.
I still wish the Rangers tanked a few more games to increase our lottery chances.
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SA16
Sixstring
Yes of course, that's not the point though. Obviously teams with higher picks do better. And teams with more picks do better. But if every team somehow had the 10th pick (Imagine picks 1-9 went in some order and then all 31 teams say who they would like to take at pick 10) and you ran that year after year that is basically entirely random. Team's aren't significantly better at scouting the others although they all believe they are.
ReggieDunlop68
hey hanrahan!
I'm saying there would be exponentially less variance in "who would they choose" if you polled the top 3 picks had all teams had an equal chance over the last 30 years.
I'm using the Russian example because prior to the end of the Cold War, some elite of the elite soviet players DID get picked in gonzo picks because teams weren't sure those players would ever be allowed to join the NHL. Example: Pittsburgh lucking out again getting Jagr at 6th right when the iron curtain fell. Bure and Fedorov were also at some absurd picks considering their KNOWN talents.
Let's say that for some really weird reason, no one picked Malkin or Ovechkin with the first 9 picks in 2004 because of some political reasons in the war, and then just after the 9th pick, there was peace on Earth, the chances that the other 20 teams who could have picked Ovechkin or Malin at 10 and 11 would just hit under 99.999999% if they had that chance.
The later picks become more iffy because the sure shit is gone.
I still wish they shaved a few more games off.
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AKA Chief
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
- 258
- 192
No. I was explaining why trading assets for EK would make sense. How many of our assets equal 1 of the best Dmen in the league? I’d be hard pressed not to make that deal.
