JPeeper
Registered User
- Jan 4, 2015
- 12,168
- 9,594
Brightest and Darkest Futures 2018 - 5 year outlook
- Thread starter Critical13
- Start date
-
HFBoards is well aware that today is election day in the US. We ask respectfully to focus on hockey and not politics.
It’s both. Obviously a great player can’t win it by himself (Edmonton), but when’s the last time somebody won a cup without a top 10 player?
Hockeyholic
Registered User
Tim Thomas was definitely top 10 on that Bruins team. 95 was before I really started following hockey, but they did have a young Brodeur. I can’t claim to know whether he was top 10 at that point though. Maybe there’s a case for the 05-06 Canes, but Staal crushed it that year and again, Cam Ward was awesome in the playoffs.
The flames are good enough where, if they had a great goalie that could steal some games, they could go on a run. Mike Smith isn’t likely that guy. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t make a bigger push for someone like Grubauer. I’d rather have a guy with upside that *might* be good versus a guy that you know is just average.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
I think they also need to find that #1C also. I look at all the teams that have one the cup recently, and all of them have elite Cs. I think the same thing will hold back Nashville.
Hockeyholic
Registered User
Thomas wasn't a top ten player in the league that year though. Maybe I'm confused by the question.
Flames are a middling team to me: Maybe win a cup is everything goes right, but unlikely. They don't have an elite player.
What's crazy about Montreal; is that not only are they 30th; but Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida and Buffalo are all in the top 11. It's going to be very hard for Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit. Get ready for a loooooooonnnnnnnnnnnng 10 years HABS! 
And Ottawa may not even survive it 
literally
And Ottawa may not even survive it literally
For that 1 year he was. .938 regular season, .940 in the playoffs. 5th in the Hart voting. Won the Conn Smythe and Vezina. His peak was short but it was white hot. He was 36 when he pulled that off, so I guess it’s never hopeless for a guy like Smith, but the odds are definitely against him.
Gaudreau is elite. I’m just not sure he’s the guy to put the team on his back and carry them through the playoffs. Gio is occasionally elite but aging. Monahan and Tkachuk are very good. They’re a solid team, but they’re an elite piece or two away for being a real contender. I don’t see where they’re going to come from. They’ve traded away draft picks recently, and they too good to have any realistic shot at Hughes. Without some sort of major move, I don’t see how they get there from here.
Calgary's problem?
Their current core is a great group to compete and make the playoffs most years. They'll get there as a 6/7/8 seed often enough. Not ever year, but there will be new excuses. Great you say.
Their current core is not good enough to compete for the Stanley cup. I'm sorry, but a team led by 2 wingers, a low end 1c, and an aging #1 defenseman is not going to win the cup.
They need another couple of elite pieces that are near impossible to get without drafting high.
Their stuck in that circle of mediocrity.
Their current core is a great group to compete and make the playoffs most years. They'll get there as a 6/7/8 seed often enough. Not ever year, but there will be new excuses. Great you say.
Their current core is not good enough to compete for the Stanley cup. I'm sorry, but a team led by 2 wingers, a low end 1c, and an aging #1 defenseman is not going to win the cup.
They need another couple of elite pieces that are near impossible to get without drafting high.
Their stuck in that circle of mediocrity.
Thrasymachus
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2018
- 5,234
- 6,741
Can't blame people picking the islanders. Pretty disastrous off season losing JT despite the nice management changes.
I just have to hope that they are wrong
I just have to hope that they are wrong
ThatHighGuy
Registered User
Gaudreau is a top 10 player(or just out side 10, depends on each season), we also have Tkachuk who will be a force in the playoffs).
We will give it to couple years and we will start rebuilding and you can be the GM.
He’s a top 10 (maybe 5?) winger. I can’t see much argument for top 10 forward and throwing defenders and goalies into the mix makes a top 10 player argument very tough.
Tkachuk is a very good young player but I’ll be surprised if he reaches the level above Gaudreau that I think they’ll need to be a contender.
Hockeyholic
Registered User
No. There are five players I'd consider elite today: Crosby, Malkin, McDavid, Karlsson, & Pat Kane. Each of said players have done it consistently at a high level. If ones defensive game is lacking ( P Kane) they make it up with playoff showings. Johnny isn't a guy I'd build a franchise around. That's just my opinion.
I wouldn’t get too attached to these polls. Five years ago the Leafs would have probably been voted in as having one of the worst futures. A hell of a lot can change in 5 years in sports. Just takes a few good drafts and some lottery luck.What's crazy about Montreal; is that not only are they 30th; but Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida and Buffalo are all in the top 11. It's going to be very hard for Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit. Get ready for a loooooooonnnnnnnnnnnng 10 years HABS!
blankall
Registered User
- Jul 4, 2007
- 15,102
- 5,514
Gaudreau can be a top 10 scorer.
The whole "top 10" thing is skewed because Crosby has been so dominant. You're also looking in hindsight using a metric that self-selects for "top 10" players, as those players led their teams to cups. Would Ovechkin have been considered a top 10 player this year if his team had lost the 2nd round of the playoffs? Would Toews have been considered a top 10 player with 1st and 2nd round exists instead of cups?
Not saying that it will happen, but a team with this kind of stats could win a cup:
Gaudreau: 90 points
Monahan: 70 points
Tkachuk: 70 points
Neal: 65 points.
Backlund: 55 points
Lindholm: 55 points
Bennett: 45 points
Frolik: 45 points
Etc...
That would be an offensively dominant team, and all of those stats are within reach of those player's abilities. Obviously a lot of things have to go right to make that happen, but that's true of most championship teams.
I can't see how anyone can have the Flames in the bottom 5. They at least have a chance of success.
Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 56,701
- 49,007
I don't think they have the centers to win the Cup. Chicago's the only team in the past decade who won a Cup without having two legitimate 1Cs down the middle, and they did so with elite wingers and a top 3 defenseman during that time period (two things I don't think Calgary can match).
Washington is proof that elite center depth wins championships. Ovechkin always scored in the playoffs, but the one time their centers (Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Eller) produced, they finally won a Cup.
I would put Colorado, Buffalo, Edmonton and Toronto near the top because of the MacKinnon, Eichel, McDavid and Matthews factor. Top young centers who will only get better and are likely to win at least a cup in their career. Dallas could be up there if Seguin keeps playing well.
Winnipeg, Nashville and Tampa most definitely should be among the top teams as well for the next couple of years.
Other solid squads include St.Louis, Carolina, Anaheim, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Vancouver. They are the teams with the better collection of great prospects mixed with veterans and seem to have the better situation right now for the future.
Pittsburgh and Washington are likely to start declining soon because Crosby/Malkin/Ovy/Backstrom are getting up there in age. Same with Los Angeles and Chicago. Four teams who should be rebuilding in five years.
Middle-tier includes Boston, Vegas, San Jose, Florida, Columbus, Arizona, Minnesota and NY Islanders.
Rangers will climb into the top-15 if Shestyorkin can come over and prove his worth.
Calgary is among the worst because they currently lack a goalie of the future. But they certainly have good forwards and defense. So I think we can assume that they are closer to top-tier if they can grab a goalie.
Montreal and Detroit at the moment are bottom teams but nowhere to go but up. They do have some nice prospects.
Ottawa is not as bad some people think but they are 31st by default because of what has happened and the ownership group.
Winnipeg, Nashville and Tampa most definitely should be among the top teams as well for the next couple of years.
Other solid squads include St.Louis, Carolina, Anaheim, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Vancouver. They are the teams with the better collection of great prospects mixed with veterans and seem to have the better situation right now for the future.
Pittsburgh and Washington are likely to start declining soon because Crosby/Malkin/Ovy/Backstrom are getting up there in age. Same with Los Angeles and Chicago. Four teams who should be rebuilding in five years.
Middle-tier includes Boston, Vegas, San Jose, Florida, Columbus, Arizona, Minnesota and NY Islanders.
Rangers will climb into the top-15 if Shestyorkin can come over and prove his worth.
Calgary is among the worst because they currently lack a goalie of the future. But they certainly have good forwards and defense. So I think we can assume that they are closer to top-tier if they can grab a goalie.
Montreal and Detroit at the moment are bottom teams but nowhere to go but up. They do have some nice prospects.
Ottawa is not as bad some people think but they are 31st by default because of what has happened and the ownership group.
Ovie won the rocket this year. No way he isn’t top 10 There’s a reasonable argument that 14-15 Blackhawks team didn’t have a top 10 player that particular year, but Toews, Kane, and Keith all won major NHL awards around that season.
That team would have a great regular season but I’m not sure how far it’d go in the playoffs, especially if Smith is the guy in net. And that’s with everything breaking in CGY’s direction. If they could get .920 goaltending for an entire season and playoffs, I think this group could have a Cinderella run. But I don’t see them as consistent cup contenders without a major change somewhere.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
A lot of talk about Calgary in here - they are a team with more to prove than most. Lots of doubters. This thread will be a joy to look back on for them if they can take it to another level.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
It's too bad you didn't read the OP. If the Leafs were voted in the bottom 10 teams 5 years ago, that would have turned out to be accurate, because they probably are amongst the bottom of the barrel in terms of success (listed in original post as playoff series wins, points accumulated, etc) within that time frame.
This poll is just a fun look at what we expect to happen within 5 years. How these teams look at the end of it is irrelevant.
IWantSakicAsMyGM
Registered User
Panarin is the only Blue Jackets player that scored more than 60 points last year, and the rumors are that he might not want to stick around for long. None of the top 10 teams have that same concern with their best forward. If Panarin (and Bob) were signed long term, I'd expect them to be higher up the list.
1. Those would be career highs for all of those players, except James Neal(aging) which is extremely unrealistic for most of them. That's not an elite offensive group. It's just not.
2. I don't think many if any have the flames in the bottom 5. That's just hating. For me, their in that middle-below average tier, where their not going to compete or blow anyones socks off, but they won't be terrible. It's a tough spot to be in. Also, it's not like their young or old or anything... they're just a big mix of everything.
What's crazy about Montreal; is that not only are they 30th; but Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida and Buffalo are all in the top 11. It's going to be very hard for Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit. Get ready for a loooooooonnnnnnnnnnnng 10 years HABS!
-Top 11 of what? A Fan poll?
