Brightest and Darkest Futures 2018 - 5 year outlook

[WetcoastOrca]

It's too bad you didn't read the OP. If the Leafs were voted in the bottom 10 teams 5 years ago, that would have turned out to be accurate, because they probably are amongst the bottom of the barrel in terms of success (listed in original post as playoff series wins, points accumulated, etc) within that time frame.

This poll is just a fun look at what we expect to happen within 5 years. How these teams look at the end of it is irrelevant.

I read the OP. I already said the polls are just for fun. They are also often inaccurate as I pointed out. In two years a great deal can change.

 

[blankall]

1. Those would be career highs for all of those players, except James Neal(aging) which is extremely unrealistic for most of them. That's not an elite offensive group. It's just not.

2. I don't think many if any have the flames in the bottom 5. That's just hating. For me, their in that middle-below average tier, where their not going to compete or blow anyones socks off, but they won't be terrible. It's a tough spot to be in. Also, it's not like their young or old or anything... they're just a big mix of everything.

1. They're only career highs by around 5-10 points for most players. The players are all young. They'll also be feeding off eachother. Like I said before, it would take a lot of things coming together to make Calgary contenders, but it's not out side the realm of possibility.

2. I don't disagree with that assessment based on last year's play. The Flames took a big chance this off-season trading away Hamilton for scoring depth and then adding Neal. Will it work out? Who knows? But my point is that stating they are in the bottom 5 for future outlook is absurd. Only aging teams or teams in a total cycle of losing should be there.

 

[viper0220]

He’s a top 10 (maybe 5?) winger. I can’t see much argument for top 10 forward and throwing defenders and goalies into the mix makes a top 10 player argument very tough.

Tkachuk is a very good young player but I’ll be surprised if he reaches the level above Gaudreau that I think they’ll need to be a contender.

We will see what happens in the next few seasons before we blow this shit up.

This is first time in a while the Flames have this kind of depth, we want to see that works before we blow this shit up.

 

[blankall]

I don't think they have the centers to win the Cup. Chicago's the only team in the past decade who won a Cup without having two legitimate 1Cs down the middle, and they did so with elite wingers and a top 3 defenseman during that time period (two things I don't think Calgary can match).

Washington is proof that elite center depth wins championships. Ovechkin always scored in the playoffs, but the one time their centers (Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Eller) produced, they finally won a Cup.

Once again, this is just a function of Pittsburgh totally skewing everything, with Crosby and Malkin.

You're also ignoring LA. Richards was good, but not an elite level centre. At best, a solid #2. So basically in the last 10 years, you have 5/10 years where the winning team didn't have 2 elite centres. If you want to go a bit further back, you have the Ducks who were led by Selanne and Neidermeyer.

All this proves is that there is no single formula for a championship team.

 

[bukwas]

I don't believe i voted in those polls but kudo's to those that recognize a bright future for the Panthers.

 

[Panthaz89]

A LOT can happen in 5 years.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

A LOT can happen in 5 years.

Oh come on!
It’s not like an expansion team could come in and in their first year play in the SCFinals or something as crazy as that.

 

[rubikscube]

Worst outlook: jets, leafs, bolts

best: sens, canucks

 

[Advanced stats]

You're also ignoring LA. Richards was good, but not an elite level centre.

Umm....kopitar?

 

[blankall]

Umm....kopitar?

Kopitar is their 1 elite centre. The argument was teams need 2 elite centres.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Sens with Melnyk and Dorion: 31st

Sens with a new owner and competent GM: much higher

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Once again, this is just a function of Pittsburgh totally skewing everything, with Crosby and Malkin.

You're also ignoring LA. Richards was good, but not an elite level centre. At best, a solid #2. So basically in the last 10 years, you have 5/10 years where the winning team didn't have 2 elite centres. If you want to go a bit further back, you have the Ducks who were led by Selanne and Neidermeyer.

All this proves is that there is no single formula for a championship team.

When LA was winning Cups, they had prime Kopitar and prime Carter down the middle. Richards was essentially their third line center.

The Flames have no one on Kopitar's level, and Carter at his best was more productive than Monahan's been thus far.

 

[rynryn]

Wild have had the darkest future for about 5 or 6 years now.

 

[Advanced stats]

Kopitar is their 1 elite centre. The argument was teams need 2 elite centres.

Valid...but a team does need at least one elite center.... Calgary doesn't have any..

 

[Siignal]

Valid...but a team does need at least one elite center.... Calgary doesn't have any..

Sean Monahan underwent 4 surgeries this summer and still ended up here
source Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) | Twitter

 

[Advanced stats]

Sean Monahan underwent 4 surgeries this summer and still ended up here
source Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) | Twitter

A career high of....64 points. 64.

 

[Siignal]

A career high of....64 points. 64.

And his career low for a full 82 is 58? He played 74 games last season scoring at 0.86 PPG.

Hope you're willing to eat crow. I am.

 

[Seedling]

how would you have answered this five years ago?

Well, teams that can almost always be counted on historically to be terrible or disappointing:

-Arizona
-Edmonton
-Islanders
-Carolina
-Buffalo

Having said that, I wouldn't put Edmonton in that category for the next bunch of years nor would I put Carolina there. The jury's out on the other three IMO.

Teams right now with the worst five year outlook:
-Ottawa
-Montreal
-Detroit
-Islanders
-Chicago

 

[Advanced stats]

And his career low for a full 82 is 58? He played 74 games last season scoring at 0.86 PPG.

Hope you're willing to eat crow. I am.

All I'm saying is, you need an elite center. Monny's a 1c, but definitely not elite. I went back 15 years and if calgary won, they would be the team with the worst 1c to win...in a long time.

 

[bobholly39]

how would you have answered this five years ago?

Pittsburgh #1 for Crosby malkin. Id say they should still be #1 or top 3 at least. The fact that theyre so low on the heels of 2 cups in 3 years is kind of silly.

Does anyone here really believe colorado philly st Louis and florida are more likely to win cups in the next 5 years than Pitt?

 

[blankall]

All I'm saying is, you need an elite center. Monny's a 1c, but definitely not elite. I went back 15 years and if calgary won, they would be the team with the worst 1c to win...in a long time.

Once again. There's no strict formula for a cup. If your lines a scoring they're scoring.

 

[SillyRabbit]

Judging a team purely on their roster and prospects is a fools errand.

You need to factor in their ownership, management, scouting staff, player development, etc.

For example, I wouldn’t trust Jim Benning to run a high school girls junior varsity volleyball team, let alone a hockey franchise.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I think Detroit and Vancouvers rebuilds are underrated. Both have been slowly/sneakily building up prospect capital and I think both teams will breakout.

While I do like what the Devils have done lately, I think a lot may hinge on Zacha and McLeod. If they both miss, I'm not sure the Devils will be elite enough. Zacha is especially looking like a miss considering the strength of many players taken right after him.

 

[Jordan1986]

I decided to create 2 polls - the first asks which 10 teams have the brightest future? This doesn't mean "who will improve the most", but rather "who will be cup contenders, who will rack up the most points, who will always be near the top". The second poll is the opposite, and asks "who will rack up the least points, be near the bottom, will not contend" over that 5 year span.

Brightest
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/top-10-teams-with-the-brightest-future-2018.2523729/

Darkest
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/top-10-teams-with-the-darkest-future-2018.2523771/

Below is a graph showing the results. I will keep this thread updated for new votes periodically. Users can also change votes if they see fit.

Snapshot of August 1st 2018

Snapshot of July 31st 2018

Note - The decimals in the % are hidden, which may explain some weird math.

Winnipeg and Colorado in top 3? Not a chance.

 

[TheAngryHank]

Well, teams that can almost always be counted on historically to be terrible or disappointing:

-Arizona
-Edmonton
-Islanders
-Carolina
-Buffalo

Having said that, I wouldn't put Edmonton in that category for the next bunch of years nor would I put Carolina there. The jury's out on the other three IMO.

Teams right now with the worst five year outlook:
-Ottawa
-Montreal
-Detroit
-Islanders
-Chicago

Detroit will be in good shape in 5 years. Out of cap problems , nice youth now to trade for futures like Nyquist and AA . Just had a very good draft and if that keeps up I view Detroit being a young talented team all coming of age at the same time. In 5 years Detroit will be no fun to play.