Brightest and Darkest Futures 2018 - 5 year outlook

[Critical13]

I decided to create 2 polls - the first asks which 10 teams have the brightest future? This doesn't mean "who will improve the most", but rather "who will be cup contenders, who will rack up the most points, who will always be near the top". The second poll is the opposite, and asks "who will rack up the least points, be near the bottom, will not contend" over that 5 year span.

Brightest
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/top-10-teams-with-the-brightest-future-2018.2523729/

Darkest
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/top-10-teams-with-the-darkest-future-2018.2523771/

Below is a graph showing the results. I will keep this thread updated for new votes periodically. Users can also change votes if they see fit.

Snapshot of August 1st 2018

Snapshot of July 31st 2018

Note - The decimals in the % are hidden, which may explain some weird math.

Click to read more...

 

[super6646]

Calgary in bottom 10. f***

 

[ThatHighGuy]

How is Calgary in the bottom 10?

 

[Critical13]

How is Calgary in the bottom 10?

I agree haha, but that's what the votes show. I think they are right in the middle, and because people aren't voting them as a Brightest option, they end up being heavily in the negatives.

Perhaps once more people have seen it, that will change. Not sure I would have the as a Darkest vote though, I don't see them being bottom 10 in points over the next 5 years.

 

[BahlDeep]

Lol at devils in bottom 10

 

[Sheppy]

Hahahaha, Montreal.

 

[IamNotADancer]

Edmonton and Buffalo have had the brightest future for the past 10 or so years... Looking forward to the next 10+ years of them being the next greatest thing

 

[LamorielloAndSon]

How is Calgary in the bottom 10?

How are the isles?

 

[IamNotADancer]

How are the isles?

To be fair, nobody can look into the future and a lot can and will happen within 5 years. So what you are seeing here is just a capture of the current situation not the future. If you want to see what the future holds wait 5 years and then read old magazines. Always worth a good chuckle

 

[BrockLobster]

How are the isles?

Bc theyre the isles. Duh. Thats the only reason.

 

[Critical13]

How are the isles?

I am guessing a lot of people have low expectation for the next few years before the farm matures.

 

[Laveuglette]

Amazing how much everyone shits on Mtl. I'm sure they won't be nearly as bad as some of you expect.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

COL too high, zona Calgary NYR and minny too low

Edit: yeah montreal too low too but with bergevin at the helm hard to say

 

[TheKingPin]

Amazing how much everyone ****s on Mtl. I'm sure they won't be nearly as bad as some of you expect.

Ottawa is worse. Not having their lottery pick this year is devastating. That’s what should have the Avs so high. Without that pick I’m not sure they are just as high.

 

[1967th Heaven]

surprised to see Vancouver that low

 

[Mike Liut]

I think the Blues are entering their best 5 year window in franchise history. Really nice core all in their primes and Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin and Bokk coming soon.

 

[PenguinSpeed]

Its not a bad thing for new teams to be contenders

-But the reality is, most of these new teams are not going to be contenders in the next 5 years. And I have serious doubts about half the teams in green. The Atlantic will also not have 4 Top 10 teams, that's silliness.

-For fun this thread should get a sticky at least for the next year.

 

[blood gin]

Well this is utterly useless

 

[JT Kreider]

The Rangers probably had the darkest outlook after we got racked in 5 by the Penguins in 2016. An aging core with bad contracts and no prospect pool to speak of outside of Buchnevich (this was before Shestyorkin really established himself as a top prospect).

All things considered it's been a very impressive turn around in two short years.

 

[Saitama]

I don't think NJ should be anywhere near that low. Minny also seems to be low in my opinion. They always seem middle of the pack to me.

 

[Lshap]

Predicting five-year outlooks based on last year's standings shows a lack of prediction skills and no knowledge of history. By the time this five-year outlook matures, bottom teams will have added years of top-end draft picks, in addition to the top picks they got last month. Those draft picks are the NHL's future stars, and the majority are going to be in the NHL within the next two or three years, playing for teams currently picked to have the worst outlook.

As for history, look back within the last four/five years to see how much the landscape changed. Bottom teams Tampa, Winnipeg and Nashville, are now contenders. Toronto, Colorado, and NJ are now playoff teams. Four/five years of new prospects have remade their rosters.

 

[lawrence]

surprised to see Vancouver that low

meh, i'm not surprised anymore when it comes to asking the fans here on hfboards.com some people just want to vote against Canuck players. A few other Canadian teams are victims of unfair voting too.

You think it's a coincidence when Horvat lost polls too

Yakupov
Nichushkin
Curtis Lazarr
Alexander Wennberg
Max Domi

You think it's a coincidence when Boeser lost polls too

Travis Konecny
Kasperi Kapanen
Kyle Connor
Nick Schmaltz
Tyson Jost

not sure how the hell New Jersey and Chicago is in the red section hfboards i'm so proud of you guys.
coincidence when Horvat lost polls too

 

[WetcoastOrca]

A fun exercise but probably not very accurate.

 

[Pavels Dog]

No one wants to think their outlook is bad in the next 5 years. But reality is that a lot of prospects people are hyped about will barely make an impact in that timeframe. The average NHLer probably hits his prime around 23-25 if not later. Most great teams have a core with mainly 23-30 year old players.

As for history, look back within the last four/five years to see how much the landscape changed. Bottom teams Tampa, Winnipeg and Nashville, are now contenders. Toronto, Colorado, and NJ are now playoff teams. Four/five years of new prospects have remade their rosters.

Tampa added top picks 10 years ago upon which a lot of their success is built upon. Nashville drafted Josi in 08, Weber and Rinne a long time ago. Winnipeg was rebuilding forever before taking off. Etc.
Predictions will certainly be off for some teams, but too many also believe teams full of 18-22 year olds will have big success.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

how would you have answered this five years ago?