Brightest and Darkest Futures 2018 - 5 year outlook

[pheasant]

I think some people are voting for what the teams will look like at the end of the next 5 years, not how the will perform over the course of the next 5 years.

But overall it's looking like a pretty legit list. I like it.

 

[Critical13]

I think some people are voting for what the teams will look like at the end of the next 5 years, not how the will perform over the course of the next 5 years.

But overall it's looking like a pretty legit list. I like it.

I agree, unfortunately I guess you can't force them to read the text below the poll.

For those wondering what we mean - this is your guess at who will have the most success within those 5 years, not who will be successful at the end of that span. Imagine you assigned 1 point for regular season wins, 2 for playoff wins, and 50 for a cup win for the next 5 seasons. The top 10 teams for points earned would be the 10 you want to vote for.

This explains why Pittsburgh has quite a few votes and Vancouver has so few. It's not that people think Vancouver has a bleak future, or that Pittsburgh is in a good position to be dominant still in 5 years...it's that these teams will be ramping up/down during that time period. I don't see Pittsburgh missing the playoffs in that span, even if they aren't President's Trophy winners. I think Vancouver will take a couple more years in the bottom half before we start to see a surge up the standings.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

I don't think NJ should be anywhere near that low. Minny also seems to be low in my opinion. They always seem middle of the pack to me.

yeah NJ made the playoffs with a young team but somehow will get worse

its probably because our 1st overall is seen as a 2nd round pick

 

[sabremike]

I think some people are voting for what the teams will look like at the end of the next 5 years, not how the will perform over the course of the next 5 years.

But overall it's looking like a pretty legit list. I like it.

But that's a problem with the question being "darkest future". If a team is going to be bad for say 3 years and then be a legit contender how can anyone say their future is "dark"?

 

[Critical13]

yeah NJ made the playoffs with a young team but somehow will get worse

its probably because our 1st overall is seen as a 2nd round pick

Looks like a lot of people expect the Metro to stay somewhat "status quo" except that Carolina will have a better 5 year stretch than NJ.

I expect Carolina to rise as well, so the question is will NJ overcome Pittsburgh/Washington/Philly?

Reminder as well that New Jersey isn't necessarily going to fall based on this list, it's just that compared to the teams above them, fewer people are giving them a chance at being one of the 10 most successful teams.

The harder to understand part is that 10% of voters have them being one of the 10 least successful teams, that's the number that's dragging them down.

 

[ACC1224]

Leafs having any 'darkest future' votes makes these polls meaningless.
Never understood why people can't just be honest with themselves.

 

[Critical13]

But that's a problem with the question being "darkest future". If a team is going to be bad for say 3 years and then be a legit contender how can anyone say their future is "dark"?

In a 5 year span.

For those wondering what we mean - this is your guess at who will have the most success within those 5 years, not who will be successful at the end of that span. Imagine you assigned 1 point for regular season wins, 2 for playoff wins, and 50 for a cup win for the next 5 seasons. The top 10 teams for points earned would be the 10 you want to vote for.

Vice versa for dark.

So if we foresee Buffalo finishing in the 70's range for 2-3 years, then surging up to 80, then maybe 90 in the final years, that might still put them with a bottom 10 points figure in the 5 year span, even if by year 5, they are in a playoff spot or even a cup contender.

Leafs having any 'darkest future' votes makes these polls meaningless.
Never understood why people can't just be honest with themselves.

They are 3rd overall. Seems pretty legit to me, as a Leaf fan I was thinking we could finish top 5 so I have no problem with 3rd. Winnipeg and Tampa deserve 1 and 2 IMO.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Looks like a lot of people expect the Metro to stay somewhat "status quo" except that Carolina will have a better 5 year stretch than NJ.

I expect Carolina to rise as well, so the question is will NJ overcome Pittsburgh/Washington/Philly?

Reminder as well that New Jersey isn't necessarily going to fall based on this list, it's just that compared to the teams above them, fewer people are giving them a chance at being one of the 10 most successful teams.

The harder to understand part is that 10% of voters have them being one of the 10 least successful teams, that's the number that's dragging them down.

it would seem NJ is seen as a bottom half of the league team in the next five years, which is ridiculous any way you read it

 

[Critical13]

it would seem NJ is seen as a bottom half of the league team in the next five years, which is ridiculous any way you read it

That's not how I read it at all, but to each their own.

 

[HugginThePost]

Relying on this place to make an objective analysis of a team, rather than who they don't like, is too much to ask for 90% of this place.

Then take into consideration the size of the teams fan presence on HF and it throws even more of a twist in it.

Not surprising that teams with the biggest fan base on here are doing well, and the teams they don't like aren't.

Add to that everyone's fed up with the over zealous Leaf's crowd and you get negative votes thrown their way.

This is pretty much a popularity contest, not a poll of any substance.

I feel like I'm back in High School and we're voting for the Student Council.

 

[Advanced stats]

it would seem NJ is seen as a bottom half of the league team in the next five years, which is ridiculous any way you read it

I see it as "more people expect New Jersey to rise in the next 5 years than to regress"...which I think is fair.


Even so, you can make a legitimate arguement that new Jersey overachieved this past season and that Philly or Carolina will surpass new Jersey over the next 5 years.

Either way, seems that with NJ, nothing is certain and the next 5 years will be interesting!

 

[Critical13]

Relying on this place to make an objective analysis of a team, rather than who they don't like, is too much to ask for 90% of this place.

Then take into consideration the size of the teams fan presence on HF and it throws even more of a twist in it.

Not surprising that teams with the biggest fan base on here are doing well, and the teams they don't like aren't.

Add to that everyone's fed up with the over zealous Leaf's crowd and you get negative votes thrown their way.

This is pretty much a popularity contest, not a poll of any substance.

I feel like I'm back in High School and we're voting for the Student Council.

Let's see your ranking, in that case. I'd love to compare it to the consensus poll. Rank the 31 teams based on how you see them faring in the next 5 years only. Even just a top 10/bottom 10 or a top 15 would be interesting.

Here's mine, so I can look it up and cringe in the future...

1. Winnipeg
2. Tampa Bay
3. Toronto
4. Nashville
5. Pittsburgh
6. St. Louis
7. Philadelphia
8. Colorado
9. Florida
10. Edmonton

11. Washington
12. Carolina
13. Buffalo
14. Boston
15. New Jersey
16. San Jose
17. Vegas
18. Los Angeles
19. Calgary
20. New York Rangers

21. Columbus
22. Dallas
23. Arizona
24. New York Islanders
25. Ottawa
26. Vancouver
27. Minnesota
28. Montreal
29. Detroit
30. Anaheim
31. Chicago

Not that far off from the mainboards list. I have Boston, Columbus, Dallas and Anaheim lower. I have Los Angeles, San Jose, Carolina and Pittsburgh higher.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Let's see your ranking, in that case. I'd love to compare it to the consensus poll. Rank the 31 teams based on how you see them faring in the next 5 years only. Even just a top 10/bottom 10 or a top 15 would be interesting.

ill give it a whirl

top 10 teams in 2023-24 in no particular order (five from each conference)
East: NJ, Philly, Carolina, Toronto, Buffalo (dark horse)
West: Calgary, Winnipeg, Dallas, Colorado, Arizona (dark horse)

 

[sabremike]

In a 5 year span.



Vice versa for dark.

So if we foresee Buffalo finishing in the 70's range for 2-3 years, then surging up to 80, then maybe 90 in the final years, that might still put them with a bottom 10 points figure in the 5 year span, even if by year 5, they are in a playoff spot or even a cup contender.



They are 3rd overall. Seems pretty legit to me, as a Leaf fan I was thinking we could finish top 5 so I have no problem with 3rd. Winnipeg and Tampa deserve 1 and 2 IMO.

But then wouldn't it be more precise to make the question "who will have the best and worst cumulative record over the next 5 years"?

 

[Critical13]

But then wouldn't it be more precise to make the question "who will have the best and worst cumulative record over the next 5 years"?

That is stated in the posts of each thread.

 

[HugginThePost]

Let's see your ranking, in that case. I'd love to compare it to the consensus poll. Rank the 31 teams based on how you see them faring in the next 5 years only. Even just a top 10/bottom 10 or a top 15 would be interesting.

Top 5 (in no particular order):

1. Winnipeg
2. Toronto
3. Tampa
4. Vegas
5. Nashville

Bottom 5 (in no particular order):

1. Ottawa
2. Montreal
3. Arizona
4. Rangers
5. Anaheim

 

[Critical13]

Top 5 (in no particular order):

1. Winnipeg
2. Toronto
3. Tampa
4. Vegas
5. Nashville

Bottom 5 (in no particular order):

1. Ottawa
2. Montreal
3. Arizona
4. Rangers
5. Anaheim

So interesting enough, your list basically matches the consensus here. Which makes the think that although there are some problems with bigger fanbases, bias, etc, a lot of those problems are eaten up by the sheer number of votes.

 

[Chuck Norris Trophy]

Poor Montreal

 

[Spirit of 67]

Went with Leafs and Habs.

 

[pheasant]

Relying on this place to make an objective analysis of a team, rather than who they don't like, is too much to ask for 90% of this place.

Then take into consideration the size of the teams fan presence on HF and it throws even more of a twist in it.

Not surprising that teams with the biggest fan base on here are doing well, and the teams they don't like aren't.

Add to that everyone's fed up with the over zealous Leaf's crowd and you get negative votes thrown their way.

This is pretty much a popularity contest, not a poll of any substance.

I feel like I'm back in High School and we're voting for the Student Council.

Well there's a bias in any poll. So you could post that same thing in any thread in the polls section. That's not a surprise. And the results in this thread are pretty close to what you might expect if everyone was being objective.

Why don't you list your objective opinion, and we'll see if it's far off from this popularity contest. Because I have a hard time imagining you wouldn't have Winnipeg/Tampa/Toronto/Nashville at or near the top, and then have Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit at or near the bottom.

 

[CartographerNo611]

Why is Pittsburgh so high, their core is already 30 and only 1 of them has a small chance of putting up th same numbers past 33. Their prospect pool is quite weak as well. They should be in the middle not the top part.

 

[ACC1224]

In a 5 year span.



Vice versa for dark.

So if we foresee Buffalo finishing in the 70's range for 2-3 years, then surging up to 80, then maybe 90 in the final years, that might still put them with a bottom 10 points figure in the 5 year span, even if by year 5, they are in a playoff spot or even a cup contender.



They are 3rd overall. Seems pretty legit to me, as a Leaf fan I was thinking we could finish top 5 so I have no problem with 3rd. Winnipeg and Tampa deserve 1 and 2 IMO.

Referring to the 'Darkest Future" votes

 

[Critical13]

Referring to the 'Darkest Future" votes

I know, and I agree. However, luckily the vast majority also agrees with us, and we still ended up where we belong. It's fun to see a bunch of ignored members voting around the Leafs in the brightest poll too . Lots of hater votes in the Metro division too.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I don’t get it, why does it say Toronto has 8 darkest votes?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Relying on this place to make an objective analysis of a team, rather than who they don't like, is too much to ask for 90% of this place.

Then take into consideration the size of the teams fan presence on HF and it throws even more of a twist in it.

Not surprising that teams with the biggest fan base on here are doing well, and the teams they don't like aren't.

Add to that everyone's fed up with the over zealous Leaf's crowd and you get negative votes thrown their way.

This is pretty much a popularity contest, not a poll of any substance.

I feel like I'm back in High School and we're voting for the Student Council.

I agree. A large part of the poll is dependant on the size of the fan base on here.
Anyways it’s all just for fun and probably of not much predictive value.