Player Discussion: Brayden Point - Part 3

[Fabiobest]

Another bridge deal is coming. This time for Vancouver.
It means only one thing: till now, the only * is in Toronto... xD xD
Nothing too strange, to be honest. xD

 

[Stormbreaker]

5.875 x 3 for Boeser

 

[Fabiobest]

5.875 x 3 for Boeser

Boeser, 56 points last season, playing in Vancouver...

3x6-6.5M for Point.

 

[Master P]

Now that we don't have to worry about a lock out I think everyone gets signed within the next day or so.

 

[DFC]

This helps us. I think it strengthens the case for 7.5m for Point. Which really JBB would be happy about.

 

[Fabiobest]

If....if...only if BriseBois will sign Point for less than 6.5M AAV (for a bridge deal) or for less than 8.5M for a long team deal...I think we'll see the invasion of the Maple Leafs fans here...
And it'll be very funny talking with them about the skills of their GM... LUL

 

[Todd1a]

Point might be the last guy to sign

 

[The Gongshow]

Was hoping with the Marner signing that Point would be inking his deal soon...

 

[Todd1a]

 

[ccman68]

Boeser was at a 66 point pace this year which is exactly what Point had at the same age. Might as well give him the same contract.

 

[42]

So we assume it's 6.5 now? Last I heard JBB had offered 5.7.

 

[Killer Orcas]

In Point's defence he's a much better player then Boeser and I'm a Canucks fan. Point should do a 6.5 per 2 and sign big in 2 years when there is cap space.

 

[HoseEmDown]

This helps us. I think it strengthens the case for 7.5m for Point. Which really JBB would be happy about.

Why does it help us yet strengthen the case for 7.5? That doesn't make sense. It helps us because Boeser scores at a 0.83 rate which averages out to 68 a year. Point is 0.87 which is 71 a year. Boeser goal rate is 0.42 per game to Points 0.40 so slight edge to Boeser. Boeser is also a top two offensive talent on his team, while Point is 3rd. Point played a full other season since Boeser was signed from college and his first season was just 9 games. But as for comparables points wise they are similar so Boeser getting roughly what we have offered Point should help get Point in around 6.5 not 7.5.

 

[Todd1a]

Why does it help us yet strengthen the case for 7.5? That doesn't make sense. It helps us because Boeser scores at a 0.83 rate which averages out to 68 a year. Point is 0.87 which is 71 a year. Boeser goal rate is 0.42 per game to Points 0.40 so slight edge to Boeser. Boeser is also a top two offensive talent on his team, while Point is 3rd. Point played a full other season since Boeser was signed from college and his first season was just 9 games. But as for comparables points wise they are similar so Boeser getting roughly what we have offered Point should help get Point in around 6.5 not 7.5.

6.5 avv for 3 years get it done already JBB and point

 

[LightningStrikes]

6.5 is what he would have gotten after 2017-18. Let’s be real here. North of 7 and south of 8 sounds right.

 

[Todd1a]

6.5 is what he would have gotten after 2017-18. Let’s be real here. North of 7 and south of 8 sounds right.

kucherov was making 4.77 avv in the 2017-18 season

 

[LightningStrikes]

kucherov was making 4.77 avv in the 2017-18 season

Your point being? At the time Kuch was on a contract that he signed in October 2016. After putting up 65 and 66 points the years prior. And that was considered a huge team discount at the time. Market value would've been north of $5M. Fast forward three years and Point just had 92 points and finished 11th in Selke voting.

60-65 points should roughly translate to $6.0 - 6.5 million for RFAs these days (see Boeser who got $5.875 after 55 and 56 point seasons). Point coming off 66 points plus being our #1 shutdown center (see Boston series) would've translated to $6M plus/minus a few 100k.

 

[Todd1a]

Your point being? At the time Kuch was on a contract that he signed in October 2016. After putting up 65 and 66 points the years prior. Point just had 92 points and finished 11th in Selke voting.

For clarification I was talking about Point ("6.5 is what he would have gotten after 2017-18. Let’s be real here. North of 7 and south of 8 sounds right.")

60-65 points translates to $6.0 - 6.5 million for RFAs these days (see Boeser who got $5.875 after 55 and 56 point seasons).

on a 3 year deal at the absolute most point should get 7 million per year! if we offered him 5.7 avv per year which is 1 million a year more then we paid kucherov on his bridge deal. heck 7avv on a 3 year deal would be the biggest bridge deal in nhl history. if we get up to 8 million then we need more years on term not 8 but at least 5 years on term. You really think point is going to be a 90 plus point a year guy every year ? because I don't

 

[LightningStrikes]

on a 3 year deal at the absolute most point should get 7 million per year! if we offered him 5.7 avv per year which is 1 million a year more then we paid kucherov on his bridge deal. heck 7avv on a 3 year deal would be the biggest bridge deal in nhl history. if we get up to 8 million then we need more years on term not 8 but at least 5 years on term. You really think point is going to be a 90 plus point a year guy every year ? because I don't

You can't give Point the same deal Kuch got at the time and just prorate the values to today. Point has more value today than Kuch had in 2016.

Let's try and evaluate:

Production: Kucherov came off 65 and 66 point seasons before signing his extension. Point comes off 66 and 92 points. Clear edge Point.
Playoffs: Kuch had 22 points in 26 playoffs games and 19 in 17 before signing. Point has 16 in 17 and 1 in 4. I call a wash as the Columbus series is a super small sample size and the entire team imploded. Kuch might have been more productive but Point singlehandedly shut down Bergeron's line in the Boston series the year before.
Position: Kuch is a scoring winger, who was playing on the hottest 2nd line in the league. Many teams still focused on Stamkos' line freeing up TKO to do their damage. Point is a two-way center and one of the best in the game already. TJ-Point-Kuch regularily faced the best defenders in the league last year. Most teams would put more value on the two-way center putting up 92 points (even when he's playing with the league MVP) than the skilled 65 point scoring winger.
Circumstance: Kuch signed at way below market value. Reactions on HFBolts and in the hockey world ranged between "WTF" and "dafuq". Times have changed a lot since then and Matthews, Eichel, Draisaitl, Marner et al have changed the game a lot. Point has all the right in the world to insist on a fair pay. He'll take less than Matthews and Marner because he is willing to "buy in" into the team culture of stars taking discounts to keep the group together and leave room for improvements at the TDL but at the same time his personal interest should be respected. And maybe he doesn't want to commit the "same mistake" Kucherov has done, leaving a big pile of money on the table only to become one of the league's best players the year after. Kuch even said as much in an interview IIRC and I'm sure he and Point talk.
Projection: This is the trickiest part. Like nobody foresaw Kucherov score 85, 100 and 128 points after signing his below market value contract. The expectation for Point would be to continue his strong two-way play first and foremost. His production as well as his shooting percentage skyrocketed last season which makes it extremely hard to predict or project his future production. Playing with Kucherov on even strength sure helps. Playing on a powerplay with the league's top scorer and MVP, a two time Rocket winner and a Norris winner sure helps. Can and will he keep it up? Who knows. That's most likely the toughest part during negotiations. JBB's position will be "prove me that you can do it again and then we'll pay you accordingly", Point's camp will be like "I did it last season, each season has been a huge improvement, pay up".

 

[HoseEmDown]

Was Point our leading scorer last year? Kucherov was 3rd in scoring his second season then led the team his 3rd year of his ELC. Point was 3rd the last two seasons. Point scored more last year than Kucherov did in the year he lead the team but the team was much better this past year and scored 95 more goals then the 15-16 team. Point should get more than Kucherov did because the cap has gone up since the Kucherov bridge. He shouldn't get a ton more because he scored more than Kucherov his 3rd year, Kucherov dragged that team to game 7 of the ECF. He did a hell of a lot more with less than Point did this year.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Was Point our leading scorer last year? Kucherov was 3rd in scoring his second season then led the team his 3rd year of his ELC. Point was 3rd the last two seasons. Point scored more last year than Kucherov did in the year he lead the team but the team was much better this past year and scored 95 more goals then the 15-16 team. Point should get more than Kucherov did because the cap has gone up since the Kucherov bridge. He shouldn't get a ton more because he scored more than Kucherov his 3rd year, Kucherov dragged that team to game 7 of the ECF. He did a hell of a lot more with less than Point did this year.

Eh, Kuch lead the team by 2 points in 2016. I don't know if that's a strong argument. And we can't fault Point for playing on a better team although it sure should factor in in some capacity.

 

[Zwui21]

Was Point our leading scorer last year? Kucherov was 3rd in scoring his second season then led the team his 3rd year of his ELC. Point was 3rd the last two seasons. Point scored more last year than Kucherov did in the year he lead the team but the team was much better this past year and scored 95 more goals then the 15-16 team. Point should get more than Kucherov did because the cap has gone up since the Kucherov bridge. He shouldn't get a ton more because he scored more than Kucherov his 3rd year, Kucherov dragged that team to game 7 of the ECF. He did a hell of a lot more with less than Point did this year.

Jesus Christ Hose stop writing all these coherent, well thought and knowledgeable answers, I'm getting tired of liking every single one of your replies lmao

 

[Zwui21]

JBB's position will be "prove me that you can do it again and then we'll pay you accordingly", Point's camp will be like "I did it last season, each season has been a huge improvement, pay up".

That's where JBB gets the edge in term of mere negotiations too. If you take into account Point's s%, him having 5 on 5 time with the best RW in the league and reigning MVP and you add up he was playing on the best PP of the league, there are too many external factors that could have boosted his points production. That's why a one year 92 season sample cannot be judged as normal trend.

3 years, 6.25M AAV

 

[Todd1a]

Was Point our leading scorer last year? Kucherov was 3rd in scoring his second season then led the team his 3rd year of his ELC. Point was 3rd the last two seasons. Point scored more last year than Kucherov did in the year he lead the team but the team was much better this past year and scored 95 more goals then the 15-16 team. Point should get more than Kucherov did because the cap has gone up since the Kucherov bridge. He shouldn't get a ton more because he scored more than Kucherov his 3rd year, Kucherov dragged that team to game 7 of the ECF. He did a hell of a lot more with less than Point did this year.

We need to get hose in the room with Brayden points agent! It’s unreal how some fans think he should get paid like 3 million more per year then Kucherov did on his bridge deal!

 

[Maelmoor]

There is no way we should pay more than 7 for a bridge deal, personally I feel 6.5 should be the top offer.