Player Discussion: Brayden Point - Part 3

[DFC]

After this many signings I feel like that's unlikely. It feels like JBB is going for "3 years $5.7 million" or bust. I'm not getting any sense that there's any willingness to change the offer because given the Marner signing and that there's apparently been no new traction since then, I can't say I'm optimistic that we've moved off "our number." I'm really starting to think that was less a low ball and more a "This is what our cap monkeys came up with. Sign here please"

We have no idea what the current offer is, if it's been raised, decreased, or whatever. There is no way JBB believes Point is signing for less than Brock Boeser.

 

[These Are The Days]

If JBB insists on such a low AAV, the term would have to change to 2 years. And even then it'll be unlikely he signs. I can't see Point signing 3 years at 5.7.
But I can see the offered being higher now, something like 3 years and 6.67 AAV. Point is waiting for something closer to 8.

I honest to God think that was our first and final offer and it's based on other contracts running out at the same time and/or his contract leaving "x" amount of room through its duration versus whatever is the expected rise in cap and how that too can be allotted it. The whole thing from the salary to the term feels counter-intuitive. As if some kind of computer or accountant came up with it, thus why I blame the "cap monkeys" as I like to call them. If Point signs something like 4 years x $7 million then I'm wrong. All I can really do is just assume the number is not moving for any reason whatsoever because we did it to Stamkos for the better part of a year and never once budged from it. I just don't see how/why Point's situation will be any different.

I just hope this ends soon. I don't want Point missing games and going into the regular season playing lousy

 

[These Are The Days]

We have no idea what the current offer is, if it's been raised, decreased, or whatever. There is no way JBB believes Point is signing for less than Brock Boeser.

I don't know what he believes but all I know is that Stamkos got his offer and we never budged from it. As far as I know Kucherov got his offer and we never budged from it. I don't see why Point would be any different even if it's absolute insanity for JBB to believe he would sign less for Boeser. In the big scope of things I hope you're right.

 

[DFC]

I don't know what he believes but all I know is that Stamkos got his offer and we never budged from it. As far as I know Kucherov got his offer and we never budged from it. I don't see why Point would be any different even if it's absolute insanity for JBB to believe he would sign less for Boeser. In the big scope of things I hope you're right.

I honestly don't think JBB is stupid enough to employ a strategy of "We don't negotiate." Stamkos was a special situation; we offered him what we perceived he was actually worth. Kucherov... we ran out of money, plain and simple. But we definitely offered Killorn more money to avoid arbitration (which took from money that should have been Kucherov's).

Simply not engaging in negotiations with players is a good way to make nobody want to play for you. I really doubt that's our actual approach here. It's far more likely that this is just a tough summer because a lot of Point's comparables have gotten, or are fighting for, big money that we can't realistically pay him, even though he might well be the best of the bunch. So it's gonna be difficult and take a little while.

If JBB is actually stuck on 5.7, which I sincerely doubt, Point will invite an offer sheet and that will be that.

 

[Sky04]

I don't know what he believes but all I know is that Stamkos got his offer and we never budged from it. As far as I know Kucherov got his offer and we never budged from it. I don't see why Point would be any different even if it's absolute insanity for JBB to believe he would sign less for Boeser. In the big scope of things I hope you're right.

I don't think you understand the differance in each scnerario.... in Stamkos's case, he was coming off 2 lousy seasons and major injury, anyone without blinders at the time saw his regression, 8.5m was a courtesy offer that's why they didn't offer more when they could've and were willing to let him walk to FA. In Kucherov's case 4.75 was literally ALL they had left at the time without making move, had Kucherov held out - the Lightning would've been in a Nylander situation where they let him sit and accrue capspace before signing him to larger contract, Kucherov didn't want to miss any games and caved.

Context, if you believe the situations are similar than you think JBB truly values Point at 5.7m and is willing to part with him for anything more like Stamkos's situation or you think JBB is fully offering his full remaining cap (8.4m) and Point is wanting more like Kucherov's. Neither are likely.

 

[Sky04]

I honestly don't think JBB is stupid enough to employ a strategy of "We don't negotiate." Stamkos was a special situation; we offered him what we perceived he was actually worth. Kucherov... we ran out of money, plain and simple. But we definitely offered Killorn more money to avoid arbitration (which took from money that should have been Kucherov's).

Simply not engaging in negotiations with players is a good way to make nobody want to play for you. I really doubt that's our actual approach here. It's far more likely that this is just a tough summer because a lot of Point's comparables have gotten, or are fighting for, big money that we can't realistically pay him, even though he might well be the best of the bunch. So it's gonna be difficult and take a little while.

If JBB is actually stuck on 5.7, which I sincerely doubt, Point will invite an offer sheet and that will be that.

If Point's side really wanted stranglehold JBB, they'd start inviting offersheets since ironically the compensation between a 1st, 2nd, 3rd (6.4-8.454m) and 2 1sts a 2nd and 3rd (>8.455m)is exactly the amount of capspace we have left. Someone could offersheet Point for 8.4m and it would only cost them a 1st, 2nd and 3rd in compensation, if JBB matches Point gets the money he wanted anyways and if he doesn't we lose Point for pennies.

Teams have probably already noticed this, much like how the Marner offersheets only came out after he signed, Points side just hasn't had any reasons to disclose them yet.

 

[42]

It'll be a very delicate situation. If Point holds out, the longer he does the less cap space will be available to sign him. Both sides know this and I'm sure it is a big factor in their decision. I don't see how Tampa can sign Point in November without making a significant cap saving move if Point decides to hold out for more money. I am hoping both sides compromise. I wonder if Point would sign if there was an offer of 3 years and 7.5 AAV with back loaded salary to give him the high QO year, if it comes to that. I don't see why JBB would not make such an offer unless it's a waiting tactic. Maybe he's already made such an offer or better and Point truly wants at least Aho money and term.

 

[Sky04]

It'll be a very delicate situation. If Point holds out, the longer he does the less cap space will be available to sign him. Both sides know this and I'm sure it is a big factor in their decision. I don't see how Tampa can sign Point in November without making a significant cap saving move if Point decides to hold out for more money. I am hoping both sides compromise. I wonder if Point would sign if there was an offer of 3 years and 7.5 AAV with back loaded salary to give him the high QO year, if it comes to that. I don't see why JBB would not make such an offer unless it's a waiting tactic. Maybe he's already made such an offer or better and Point truly wants at least Aho money and term.

How..? Wouldn't they would acrue more capspace the longer they let it sit into the season, similar to how Nylander's caphit last season was 10.5m because he waited till nearly 3 months into the season to sign. There is no more signings needed this year except for Point. The whole intent of JBB not wanting to blow out his cap now is to leave a bit sitting for possible TDL acquisitions and it's that same strategy that Point's side can use to get a larger number by waiting longer.

 

[42]

How..? They would acrue more capspace the longer they let it sit into the season, similar to how Nylander's caphit last season was 10.5m because he waited till nearly 3 months into the season to sign. There is no more signings needed this year except for Point. The whole intent of JBB not wanting to blow out his cap now is to leave a bit sitting and let it acrue for possible TDL acquisitions and it's that same strategy that Point's side can use to get a larger number by waiting longer.

How do they accrue the cap space as the season unrolls? Point's AAV will be prorated on a per diem calculation, like Nylander's last year. So if he signs for an annual cap hit of 8 million on November 30th, his prorated AAV will be something in the 11 million range.

 

[Byrddog]

What sense does a bridge make? If you sign him for 7 to 8 mil your going to have to give him an even larger piece of the pie in a couple years. Does it not make more sense to bite the bullet now get him locked down until he is 30 for 1 to 1.5 mil more? Yes some hard decisions will need to be made next year. I would find it difficult to think Point would not sigh a 8.5 mil 7 year contract. Even if you had to go to 9 mil you lock players like him up. Why Kuch did I have no idea and Points production has been similar to Kuch for the first three years. There is no indication that Points production will drop either he will still be playing with the same guys he has played with for two years. He is just as valuable to the team as Stammer but I would prefer Kuch to make more money.

As it stands now I am not sure it will get done before the start of the season and if it does not I fully expect it will not get done until Nov.

 

[Sky04]

How do they accrue the cap space as the season unrolls? Point's AAV will be prorated on a per diem calculation, like Nylander's last year. So if he signs for an annual cap hit of 8 million on November 30th, his prorated AAV will be something in the 11 million range.

Oh you're right, I was thinking something different in the Nylander contract but forgot they had a ton of capspace available to sign him that season with Marner and Matthews still on ELC.

 

[Merrrlin]

What sense does a bridge make? If you sign him for 7 to 8 mil your going to have to give him an even larger piece of the pie in a couple years. Does it not make more sense to bite the bullet now get him locked down until he is 30 for 1 to 1.5 mil more? Yes some hard decisions will need to be made next year. I would find it difficult to think Point would not sigh a 8.5 mil 7 year contract. Even if you had to go to 9 mil you lock players like him up. Why Kuch did I have no idea and Points production has been similar to Kuch for the first three years. There is no indication that Points production will drop either he will still be playing with the same guys he has played with for two years. He is just as valuable to the team as Stammer but I would prefer Kuch to make more money.

As it stands now I am not sure it will get done before the start of the season and if it does not I fully expect it will not get done until Nov.

I think this is where the problem lies. I haven't seen any evidence that Point would be willing to sign that kind of contract. I am guessing that a team friendly deal at 7 years term would be closer to 10.5 than 9.

 

[42]

I think this is where the problem lies. I haven't seen any evidence that Point would be willing to sign that kind of contract. I am guessing that a team friendly deal at 7 years term would be closer to 10.5 than 9.

There is 0.01% chance Point will be given a contract with higher AAV than Kucherov as his post-ELC contract.
How is even 10.5 team-friendly? Are you Dubas?

 

[Merrrlin]

There is 0.01% chance Point will be given a contract with higher AAV than Kucherov as his post-ELC contract.
How is even 10.5 team-friendly? Are you Dubas?

Probably true, which is where the bridge deal comes in. He's going to slide into a nice 8aav is my guess, sometime this week.

If he doesn't who takes the #2 spot? Johnson? Cirelli?

 

[42]

Probably true, which is where the bridge deal comes in. He's going to slide into a nice 8aav is my guess, sometime this week.

If he doesn't who takes the #2 spot? Johnson? Cirelli?

Yeah, a bridge deal makes the only sense, capwise, for the Bolts now. Probably < 8 AAV.

Johnson has been centering Kucherov in preseason so my guess is it'll be him.

And sorry about the Dubas jab

 

[DFC]

I think this is where the problem lies. I haven't seen any evidence that Point would be willing to sign that kind of contract. I am guessing that a team friendly deal at 7 years term would be closer to 10.5 than 9.

Then why is he not inviting offer sheets?

The people involved aren't idiots. Point's camp can see our contract situation, and can see how implausible it would be for us to move a contract right now. Is he really going to wait until December on the off chance we can move Mike Condon? I somehow doubt that.

He knows what money we have left, and JBB is trying to give him as little of that money as we can get away with. JBB's job isn't to give Point the best contract he can; his job is to keep Point's AAV as low as Point will allow. Some GMs put more time/effort into this part of the job than others.

 

[Merrrlin]

Then why is he not inviting offer sheets?

The people involved aren't idiots. Point's camp can see our contract situation, and can see how implausible it would be for us to move a contract right now. Is he really going to wait until December on the off chance we can move Mike Condon? I somehow doubt that.

He knows what money we have left, and JBB is trying to give him as little of that money as we can get away with.

I think we're on the same page here - my comment was specifically in regards to a 7 or 8 year deal, as the post I quoted mentioned. Of all the RFAs, Point makes the most sense for a bridge.

 

[DFC]

Yeah, a bridge deal makes the only sense, capwise, for the Bolts now. Probably < 8 AAV.

Johnson has been centering Kucherov in preseason so my guess is it'll be him.

And sorry about the Dubas jab

I think it's Johnson in the #2 spot, but it also feels like Cirelli might be in the top-six either way. Especially now with Verhaeghe having a strong camp.

Stamkos (RW Cirelli)
Johnson
Verhaeghe
Paquette

It's still not bad. It's not in the conversation for best in the league, which is the case when you insert Point.

 

[DFC]

I think we're on the same page here - my comment was specifically in regards to a 7 or 8 year deal, as the post I quoted mentioned. Of all the RFAs, Point makes the most sense for a bridge.

I feel like Point miiiight be fighting for the Aho contract. And if that's the case, JBB might by trying to keep the AAV below 7 on a three year deal. I don't think either side will get exactly what they want.

One thing that differs about Point's situation though is the pressure is much more on his side than JBB's. I don't think that's the case in Colorado, or Winnipeg (now that half their D is gone). They need those players a lot earlier than we need Point. We really only need to make sure he's at 100% by playoff time. I don't doubt JBB is pressing that advantage in the waiting game.

 

[42]

I feel like Point miiiight be fighting for the Aho contract. And if that's the case, JBB might by trying to keep the AAV below 7 on a three year deal. I don't think either side will get exactly what they want.

One thing that differs about Point's situation though is the pressure is much more on his side than JBB's. I don't think that's the case in Colorado, or Winnipeg (now that half their D is gone). They need those players a lot earlier than we need Point. We really only need to make sure he's at 100% by playoff time. I don't doubt JBB is pressing that advantage in the waiting game.

But also cannot afford to wait until dec 1 or AAV may be too high to fit under the cap.

 

[HoseEmDown]

We have no idea what the current offer is, if it's been raised, decreased, or whatever. There is no way JBB believes Point is signing for less than Brock Boeser.

Why does he deserve more than Boeser? PPG is very similar with a slight edge to Point, GPG is very similar with the edge to Boeser. The Tampa Bay Lightning scored 172 more goals the past two seasons than the Vancouver Canucks. Tell me how Point is that much better than Boeser? Point needs to stop thinking he's comparable to the McDavid, Crosby level players when really it's more the Boeser and Meier types.

 

[DFC]

But also cannot afford to wait until dec 1 or AAV may be too high to fit under the cap.

Still more pressure on Point to bring it down.

...Although, aren't the contracts prorated so the AAV has the same effect? As in, the bigger contract, added at that time of year, with accrued space, works out to the same thing. I assumed that's the calculation involved in prorating them.

 

[Byrddog]

I think this is where the problem lies. I haven't seen any evidence that Point would be willing to sign that kind of contract. I am guessing that a team friendly deal at 7 years term would be closer to 10.5 than 9.

Now I like Point as much as the next guy but not at 10.5 if that is the asking price he will be setting out this year. That is not reasonable by any means the guy is deserving of an elite type salary but that is approaching the top end when you consider Nate McKinnion out there at 6.3 (very similar numbers) And McDavid at 12.5 Point falls somewhere closer to Mac. Sure Toronto pays ignorant money as well as a couple others but this is Tampa. Am I saying to try and cheap out on him no but if the contract does not make sense you move on. Hopefully the two sides are closer than the shitshow we portray here.

 

[DFC]

Why does he deserve more than Boeser? PPG is very similar with a slight edge to Point, GPG is very similar with the edge to Boeser. The Tampa Bay Lightning scored 172 more goals the past two seasons than the Vancouver Canucks. Tell me how Point is that much better than Boeser? Point needs to stop thinking he's comparable to the McDavid, Crosby level players when really it's more the Boeser and Meier types.

I guess you're right. In this new world where everything that matters is on a per game basis, we should probably only be using comparables who played fewer than 60 games in recent years.

 

[Merrrlin]

Now I like Point as much as the next guy but not at 10.5 if that is the asking price he will be setting out this year. That is not reasonable by any means the guy is deserving of an elite type salary but that is approaching the top end when you consider Nate McKinnion out there at 6.3 (very similar numbers) And McDavid at 12.5 Point falls somewhere closer to Mac. Sure Toronto pays ignorant money as well as a couple others but this is Tampa. Am I saying to try and cheap out on him no but if the contract does not make sense you move on. Hopefully the two sides are closer than the ****show we portray here.

Both of those contracts were signed in very different labour environments though. Dubas probably overpaid (let's see how they fare this year), but hoping he signs anything more than a bridge for 6.3 seems unrealistic, even with the team friendly aspect. Point at 6.5 for term (even as little as 5 years) is probably the best contract in the NHL.