Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk (LW) - Part XI

[R We A Team]

Personally I think some of you are just being unreasonable in your expectations.

If points/goals are the sole indicators for evaluating his worth then some here are setting themselves up for disappointment.

News flash... there is more to a player then points. Brady has already shown leadership beyond his years, it has been noted numerous times, he drags the team into the fight... but you already know that.

Think this debate? is more about not liking the player then if he is living up to his contract.

Last but not least is if Brady was to be made available for a trade today, there would be a lineup of teams scrambling to aquire him.... why not try enjoying him as a player on the Ottawa Senators instead of looking for reasons to hate him being here.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

If we all agree that he's slightly overpaid, how does that change the calculus?

At what number is he not overpaid in your mind, given his age and the desire for a long-term contract?

I agree it is a complex situation in regards to the calculus. We were cornered in a position where we basically had to sign him to retain credibility and that gave all the power to Brady and they were ruthless with it.

As for what number is better. I guess the sticking point is that guys like Makar, Heiskanen, Pettersson, Hughes, Svechnikov etc all signed for the same neighborhood while, and with all due respect to Brady, these guys are clearly a tier if not more higher than Brady in terms of hockey sense, skill, offensive and defensive impact. Brady obviously has the physical advantage but in terms of impact these guys are already top tier elite talent who in any given shift are the best players on the ice. We are still hoping Brady gets to that level and it is no guarantee that he hits it.

7 would have been a fair number, a level below those other talents as Brady has not performed to their level, but also respects Brady's physicality, leadership, and his last name.

It is also in relation to the effect that an undesirable numbers has on guys like Norris and Pinto who imo from a pure hockey goals in goals out perspective, will be near the effectiveness of Brady. So with Brady at 8.2 million, that inflates their salary. Norris and Pinto at 7.5 can be very justifiable in if we compare it to Brady. Brady at 7m would have created a sort of cap for keeping Norris and Pinto salary reasonable. Not to mention we also have to think about guys like Stutzle, Zub, Sanderson, and Brannstrom.

 

[GCK]

If we all agree that he's slightly overpaid contract wise, how does that change the calculus?

At what cap number is he not overpaid in your mind, given his age and the desire for a long-term contract?

What did you expect? 5? 6? 6.5? 7? 7.5? I'm curious.

I expect he will improve his production and be a playoff beast so I'm think we may have overpaid by about 750K on AAV but that's worth the headache of trying to sign him after a bridge. He "feels" like a 7.5M AAV type player to me.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

if we switched Drake and Brady contract it would be perfect. And I guess accounting wise it is the same thing so it cancels out? lol

Batherson has to fire his agent though, dumb contract.

 

[Cosmix]

I agree it is a complex situation in regards to the calculus. We were cornered in a position where we basically had to sign him to retain credibility and that gave all the power to Brady and they were ruthless with it.

As for what number is better. I guess the sticking point is that guys like Makar, Heiskanen, Pettersson, Hughes, Svechnikov etc all signed for the same neighborhood while, and with all due respect to Brady, these guys are clearly a tier if not more higher than Brady in terms of hockey sense, skill, offensive and defensive impact. Brady obviously has the physical advantage but in terms of impact these guys are already top tier elite talent who in any given shift are the best players on the ice. We are still hoping Brady gets to that level and it is no guarantee that he hits it.

7 would have been a fair number, a level below those other talents as Brady has not performed to their level, but also respects Brady's physicality, leadership, and his last name.

It is also in relation to the effect that an undesirable numbers has on guys like Norris and Pinto who imo from a pure hockey goals in goals out perspective, will be near the effectiveness of Brady. So with Brady at 8.2 million, that inflates their salary. Norris and Pinto at 7.5 can be very justifiable in if we compare it to Brady. Brady at 7m would have created a sort of cap for keeping Norris and Pinto salary reasonable. Not to mention we also have to think about guys like Stutzle, Zub, Sanderson, and Brannstrom.

Brady Tkachuk's salary is an outlier if using points as the measure. Other Senators players will have other comparable players fitting their contributions. Brady's salary does not inflate the salaries of the other Senators players; rather league wide comparable players and their salaries will determine the other Senators players' worth or value. The salary cap sets limits and the team budget will determine whether certain players sign here or not. Yes, some players will be traded if they ask for more than the owner is willing and able to pay.

 

[DJB]

I know I'll be labeled as a hater but oof his play was rough yesterday and honestly for a long while now. I actually thought he was playing better during his cold streak vs the recent streak where he has been scoring and putting up points. Weird.

Yesterday he must have completed one clean pass in the first half of the game, lost interest to track in the second half but not sure it was much better. If he is injured that would make sense.

If we are to evaluate Brady as a 4mill player right now, it's pretty good. And I guess evaluating his play like that makes some sense. But it also hard when he is the captain and has the highest cap hit on the team. Those roles justify high expectations like they did for Stone, Karlsson, Alfredsson etc. when he is making 10m he will need to be a lot better than this.

Gee i really don't know why for months now many think you are a hater.

Its shocking to most of us.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Gee i really don't know why for months now many think you are a hater.

Its shocking to most of us.

He also said he wouldn't be posting in here anymore but hey, he makes a lot of weird judgement calls.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Gee i really don't know why for months now many think you are a hater.

Its shocking to most of us.

Like I said I have found his production and play very odd since Batherson went down. And I would genuinely be interested in what other people think as it sorta makes me feel crazy.

With Batherson he was playing at a legit 1st line level in terms of making plays, good passes, and retaining possession. After Batherson went down he was still generally playing like that but his production went down a lot. He however made a switch and now imo is playing with less skill and passing and possession but his numbers have gone up.

Am I crazy or just a hater? idk. but this is genuinely what I have noted on Bradys play this season.

I would be curious what other people have to say about Bradys play this season. Because if im the only one with this read than maybe I am just a hater lol. It would be news to me as hating a great player like Brady on your own team especially with the way he plays would be pretty dumb.

But honestly I feel that you label me a hater because you don't want to have any discussion on Brady that isn't strictly positive and singing his praises.

He also said he wouldn't be posting in here anymore but hey, he makes a lot of weird judgement calls.

I decided letting the sensibilities of other people dictate where I should or shouldn't post pretty dumb and against my values. especially if it is a topic I'm genuinely interested about.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

if we switched Drake and Brady contract it would be perfect. And I guess accounting wise it is the same thing so it cancels out? lol

Batherson has to fire his agent though, dumb contract.

It was guaranteed money for a guy who hadn't show much in the NHL aside from potential.

Some guys prefer that to rolling the dice.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

if we switched Drake and Brady contract it would be perfect. And I guess accounting wise it is the same thing so it cancels out? lol

Batherson has to fire his agent though, dumb contract.

I think you're being too harsh with Brady; but I do agree (at this point in time) his contract value is not indicative of his on-ice game. If you factor the leadership intangibles...maybe you can make an argument. Market value on Brady is ~6M/year.

 

[aragorn]

I agree it is a complex situation in regards to the calculus. We were cornered in a position where we basically had to sign him to retain credibility and that gave all the power to Brady and they were ruthless with it.

As for what number is better. I guess the sticking point is that guys like Makar, Heiskanen, Pettersson, Hughes, Svechnikov etc all signed for the same neighborhood while, and with all due respect to Brady, these guys are clearly a tier if not more higher than Brady in terms of hockey sense, skill, offensive and defensive impact. Brady obviously has the physical advantage but in terms of impact these guys are already top tier elite talent who in any given shift are the best players on the ice. We are still hoping Brady gets to that level and it is no guarantee that he hits it.

7 would have been a fair number, a level below those other talents as Brady has not performed to their level, but also respects Brady's physicality, leadership, and his last name.

It is also in relation to the effect that an undesirable numbers has on guys like Norris and Pinto who imo from a pure hockey goals in goals out perspective, will be near the effectiveness of Brady. So with Brady at 8.2 million, that inflates their salary. Norris and Pinto at 7.5 can be very justifiable in if we compare it to Brady. Brady at 7m would have created a sort of cap for keeping Norris and Pinto salary reasonable. Not to mention we also have to think about guys like Stutzle, Zub, Sanderson, and Brannstrom.

1st paragraph - nonsense, that's how negotiations work, ruthless how? Laywers on one side of the table & lawyers on the other side, he got his market value which he could have gotten from 31 other teams. To say otherwise is nonsense & semantics leading to a particular negative narative.

2nd paragraph - you clearly prefer the finesse playerss who can score pretty goals, just say it. You don't like the rough tough style that Brady brings & you certainly don't appreciate it. You don't appreciate the punishment he takes in front of the net, how he makes so many neat tips while big defencemen are hanging off his back. You don't appreciate the room he makes for his linemates drawing the defenders to him or consider those things he does to be skillful yet very few in the NHL can replicate them which is why he is so valuable.

3rd paragraph - again nonsense he got his market value since both sides agree to it & both sides considered it fair & again there are 31 other teams that would have given it to him & some much more. Tkachuk is once again leading the team in scoring for the 3rd yr in a row, he's not a figure skater he is a banger who can produce & does produce pts & he's tough & rarely misses a game. Just say it, you hate this kind of player, you prefer finesse players like Stutzle. He has performed to their level except for the pts which is what you keep reffering to ignoring the other stuff he does leading this team. You want pretty plays from $8 mil players, not banging pucks into the net from in front, just say it.

4th paragraph - maybe Batherson's contract balances that out either way they have lawyers representing them & they will get fair market value that's how it works. It's up to the player to live up to their contracts & what is expected from the organization's view point. From what management says they love him, the coach loves him, his teammates love him & those things are also why he makes more money on the ice & off. There are UFAs that leave the team every yr freeing up money, their are guys traded every yr freeing up money. Every team in the NHL has to deal with this as their young players get to a point where they deserve more money, that's just the way it is & they will deal with it. Cherry picking Tkachuk's contract to try & blame him for other player's negotiations is just another way to say I don't like this player, just say it.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Brady is on pace for about 65-68 points. I firmly believe that a good chunk of that is Drake's breakout, but certainly not all of it is. His play has been a bit up and down but he has produced pretty consistently over the course of year.

To me every 10 points from a forward in the NHL is worth ~ $1M. Until you get to the 75-80 point level, then things start to get more expensive. So Brady is worth about $6.5M this year offensively.

After producing offensively the next most sought after skill for a forward is being an impact player defensively. Patrice Bergeron deserves to be paid an extra $2M on top of his production because of his defensive prowess. Ditto for a guy like Kopitar. Tkachuk is not a factor defensively this year. There have been some signs that he might be improving but he's not a very good defensive player. $0 added value there. Still at $6.5M, give or take.

Finally intangibles get rewarded in NHL contracts. Toughness, leadership, playoff experience, history of coming through in big games, etc. This is often rewarded but shouldn't exceed $1M/ year, IMO. Brady has loads, but not all, of this. I'd say his leadership and toughness has a value of $600-800K this year.

So add it all together and Brady is, IMO, playing like a $7.1-7.5M player this year.

Not quite living up to his cap hit but not bad at all. I was always of the opinion that his contract was a slight overpay. It looks like if it is a long term overpay it won't be much of one.

 

[aragorn]

Brady is on pace for about 65-68 points. I firmly believe that a good chunk of that is Drake's breakout, but certainly not all of it is. His play has been a bit up and down but he has produced pretty consistently over the course of year.

To me every 10 points from a forward in the NHL is worth ~ $1M. Until you get to the 75-80 point level, then things start to get more expensive. So Brady is worth about $6.5M this year offensively.

After producing offensively the next most sought after skill for a forward is being an impact player defensively. Patrice Bergeron deserves to be paid an extra $2M on top of his production because of his defensive prowess. Ditto for a guy like Kopitar. Tkachuk is not a factor defensively this year. There have been some signs that he might be improving but he's not a very good defensive player. $0 added value there. Still at $6.5M, give or take.

Finally intangibles get rewarded in NHL contracts. Toughness, leadership, playoff experience, history of coming through in big games, etc. This is often rewarded but shouldn't exceed $1M/ year, IMO. Brady has loads, but not all, of this. I'd say his leadership and toughness has a value of $600-800K this year.

So add it all together and Brady is, IMO, playing like a $7.1-7.5M player this year.

Not quite living up to his cap hit but not bad at all. I was always of the opinion that his contract was a slight overpay. It looks like if it is a long term overpay it won't be much of one.

How many games has he missed over the last 3 yrs playing his style, leading the league or right up there in hits & leading this team in pts 3 yrs in a row now? Is that worth something? How many other teams do you think would give him $8 mil to play with them or more? What would Toronto pay him to play with them as they gear up for a playoff run?

BTW we can now write all-star beside his name as well, how much is that worth? Taking in some of the young guys to live with him & looking after them on & off the ice, how much is that worth? Being the face of the franchise, constantly in the media building up their team & teammates & the organization, how much is that worth? Having broadcasters constantly talking/advertising about all the stuff he does on the ice & off to help the team win, what is that worth to the org?

They didn't or wouldn't pay Alfredsson & look how that turned out, is that what we should be doing to Tkachuk as well? He is being paid for everything he does to promote the team, the organization & the players as the face of the franchise & at the same time leading the team as captain on the ice & leading point producer. Surely that's worth $8 mil to this org?

 

[yogibear]

I see no major issue for Tkachuck’s salary. I would bet than 31 other teams would take him as is and take any actions to make cap space if necessary.

His next contract may not be as friendly. Look at EK65…

 

[JD1]

For those suggesting that Brady's productivity is tied to Drake's breakout

It's almost like playing with other players that are playing at a 1st line level helps statistical production

It's just weird how it works like that

 

[R We A Team]

Your point about Brady getting points because of Drake is hilarious. Every player gets points as a result of their line mates... Funny with both of his 1st line team mates out he is still producing. He hasn't thrown in the towel cause he doesn't have as you would put it "worthy" linemates.

How many 1st lines still produce at the pace you want with 2/3 missing? Again, just how much is he supposed to do?

Brady as has been pointed out is also the "Ultimate" teammate and that is worth more than you seem to value as well. Team chemistry is a real thing and I for one can't wait to see us in the play offs being led by none other than Brady!!!

 

[SensontheRush]

Sure, players get multiple "hits" a game, but Tkachuk, boy, he gets multiple HITS a game.

He's clearly a very skilled player; controls the boards and plays a more cerebral game. He understands how to control play in response to defensive coverage (eg distance between him and the guy covering him, free ice). Underrated playmaker.

He's kinda lazy coming back on the back check, but he is good in the dzone. I don't recall a play scored against us directly because of a misplay by Tkachuk in the dzone, maybe a clear that was knocked down?

The only thing holding him back from being a God is his skating; fixes both of his deficiencies. It would help him break through coverage with his frame to be more of a self producer, and it would make him an actual option on the back check. As much as it's lazy it's also "well, why bother? Don't wait for me!".

I feel like we get flashes of him where he finds this unworldly speed, and he's a winner baby.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Tkachuk will get his points. He gets every opportunity to add points.. deservedly so. I find he is really good down low, around the net and he has a decent shot off the rush. He can make plays around the net. Becoming one of the better net front players in the league. I would really like to see him improve his passing and puck skills every where above the top of the offensive circles to the defensive zone. He turns too many pucks over on failed passing attempts in the Dzone , through the neutral zone and entering the ozone. His defensive game is just ok.. and should be better, particularly in the dzone.

 

[DueDiligence]

Gee i really don't know why for months now many think you are a hater.

Its shocking to most of us.

Only months? I thought it was years!

 

[Knave]

I get people don't like contracts but for me this always helps put things in perspective:

The Chicago Blackhawks won a Stanley Cup with a much, much lower cap ceiling while having Brian Campbell on their team at 7.1M cap hit.

Brady's contract is a better deal. He's a legit top line player. Brian Campbell was not a top pairing defenseman but was being paid like one of the best in the league at the time.

Brady Tkachuk's contract should not stop us from doing anything. He's a good player, I'm sure he's likeable in the room, he can get dirty goals, get into rough areas and do things that are especially useful in the playoffs where we ultimately want to be and succeed.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

It is wild to think that Tkachuk is only going to get bigger and stronger. He is going to be like Dustin Byfuglien at some point. Tkachuk is only 22 years old at this point and this is what Byfuglien looked like at 25.

Then this is what Byfuglien became:

Tkachuk is already starting to become pretty physically imposing and throwing some massive hits. He is only going to get bigger and stronger. Just wait until he is in his mid twenties.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

So you're ok if he's underpaid? Think about that for a minute or two.

Well...if we get extremely lucky and slightly underpay all the core guys on the team, that means you have some dollars to add in a really nice finishing piece when the time comes for this team to contend. Paying everyone their worth (or above) makes it extremely difficult to assemble a championship contender in a cap league.

 

[OD99]

Well...if we get extremely lucky and slightly underpay all the core guys on the team, that means you have some dollars to add in a really nice finishing piece when the time comes for this team to contend. Paying everyone their worth (or above) makes it extremely difficult to assemble a championship contender in a cap league.

No team ever pays every player exactly what they are worth.

All contracts are speculative except for generational players really. You pay for what you project they will contribute.

Some, like Batherson immediately pay dividends and outperform while a a Z on the backend eats up the value you received from the Bath deal.

I would always be willing to pay a bit more for high end talent and risk coming up a bit short while being conservative with depth players and just hope it evens out as best as possible.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Brady is on pace for about 65-68 points. I firmly believe that a good chunk of that is Drake's breakout, but certainly not all of it is. His play has been a bit up and down but he has produced pretty consistently over the course of year.

To me every 10 points from a forward in the NHL is worth ~ $1M. Until you get to the 75-80 point level, then things start to get more expensive. So Brady is worth about $6.5M this year offensively.

After producing offensively the next most sought after skill for a forward is being an impact player defensively. Patrice Bergeron deserves to be paid an extra $2M on top of his production because of his defensive prowess. Ditto for a guy like Kopitar. Tkachuk is not a factor defensively this year. There have been some signs that he might be improving but he's not a very good defensive player. $0 added value there. Still at $6.5M, give or take.

Finally intangibles get rewarded in NHL contracts. Toughness, leadership, playoff experience, history of coming through in big games, etc. This is often rewarded but shouldn't exceed $1M/ year, IMO. Brady has loads, but not all, of this. I'd say his leadership and toughness has a value of $600-800K this year.

So add it all together and Brady is, IMO, playing like a $7.1-7.5M player this year.

Not quite living up to his cap hit but not bad at all. I was always of the opinion that his contract was a slight overpay. It looks like if it is a long term overpay it won't be much of one.

He's making $4m this year and will make less that $7.1m for 3 of the 7 years of his contract.

Also, even if you take out every single point Batherson was involved in (which.... why??) Brady still paces for 43pts. And if you take out every single point Matthews was involved in, Marner would pace for 47! Batherson and Norris, cancel one another out, and they pace for 45 & 20 pts, respectively.

 

[Sweatred]

Brady is on pace for about 65-68 points. I firmly believe that a good chunk of that is Drake's breakout, but certainly not all of it is. His play has been a bit up and down but he has produced pretty consistently over the course of year.

To me every 10 points from a forward in the NHL is worth ~ $1M. Until you get to the 75-80 point level, then things start to get more expensive. So Brady is worth about $6.5M this year offensively.

After producing offensively the next most sought after skill for a forward is being an impact player defensively. Patrice Bergeron deserves to be paid an extra $2M on top of his production because of his defensive prowess. Ditto for a guy like Kopitar. Tkachuk is not a factor defensively this year. There have been some signs that he might be improving but he's not a very good defensive player. $0 added value there. Still at $6.5M, give or take.

Finally intangibles get rewarded in NHL contracts. Toughness, leadership, playoff experience, history of coming through in big games, etc. This is often rewarded but shouldn't exceed $1M/ year, IMO. Brady has loads, but not all, of this. I'd say his leadership and toughness has a value of $600-800K this year.

So add it all together and Brady is, IMO, playing like a $7.1-7.5M player this year.

Not quite living up to his cap hit but not bad at all. I was always of the opinion that his contract was a slight overpay. It looks like if it is a long term overpay it won't be much of one.

So Brady is giving us $3+ million of extra value this season - sounds good to me … He’s also shown to be able to produce without Norris and Bath -

When Brady is on the ice he makes everyone better and puts all of the opposition on edge.