Prospect Info: Brad Lambert, 30th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[BoneDocUK]

Yes. But not all gambles are equal. We could have had a 3:1 bet. We took a 10:1 bet. Bigger payoff, lower chance of a win.

Were there 3:1 bets at 30?

I think one difficulty for scouts and hockey ops types is that any bet on a prospect in a weak-but-deepish draft is a complicated one. For instance:
1) Will they make the NHL?
2) Will they be impact players in the NHL?
3) Will their NHL impact be in line with their draft position?

I don't see how you can look at the 32 players in the first round and easily conclude that Brad Lambert is a 10:1 bet to return a positive answer to questions 1-3 (or others) while concluding that Player X not chosen by the Jets is many times more likely to do so, especially at this point.

IMO, the draft is done. Now we have to dance with the ones what brung us, for better or for worse. They're our prospects and there's no do over, and I'm less interested in mourning the players Chevy didn't pick than learning more about and getting behind the ones he did.

We have a season and more of shitty Jets news to bewail. Why add to the burden?

I love watching prospects and I will always root for them to succeed. The 2022 crop is no different for me. Onwards, Young Jets, say I.

 

[Daximus]

Yes. But not all gambles are equal. We could have had a 3:1 bet. We took a 10:1 bet. Bigger payoff, lower chance of a win.

I like this gamble more than any of the D that were available personally. I don't see much upside in any of the guys that were remaining. 4-6 at best. Obviously there's a n alright chance one of them becomes a solid top 4 guy but then you are just betting on which one of them becomes that and the odds don't look much different.

I'm pretty confident that Lambert suffered from some bad off ice decisions and poor puck luck and will have a bounce back season that is going to make a lot of people in here and a lot of GM's at the draft question why he didn't go higher.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It was against weakish Germany and very weak Austria. I wouldn’t make too many conclusions about that. He would have scored a ton of points in the Finnish A-junior league last season, just with his magnificent skating and good hands. Austria is around that level as an opponent, and Germany in that tournament wasn’t a lot better.

I’m in fact quite sure that Lambert will score a lot of points at the WJC in August. His strengths make him shine against less physical and not so organized and well defending opponents. But what will it tell in the end if he scores a ton of points at the WJC? Just that his skillset works against juniors. Unfortunately he won’t be playing against juniors much in either the NHL or the AHL.

A ton of points at the WJC might influence the Jets to send him to the AHL instead of the WHL. If he is that able to dominate at that level, maybe the AHL is the best place for him to go.

What can you say about his work ethic? If he has a good off-season of training he might be more ready for the AHL too.

 

[snowkiddin]

I don't want to argue about Lambert any more. I think it has all been said.

This thread has given me a little optimism in that the attitude issues sound like they may have been more his father than him. Though the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. We will see.

But this idea that having more than 1 pick in the first rd makes a bigger gamble OK is just wrong. In order to get the benefit of the extra 1st, it has to be treated with the same care as it would be if it was the only pick you have.

I hope Salomonsson can at least partially fill the hole at RD. From what I have read he will have to get a lot better at defence. I want a 2 way Dman who can play top 4, if not top 2. Neither all defence, like DeMelo nor all offense like maybe Heinola. I may be mistaken there. The modern D seems to succeed by attacking. But someone needs to get possession for that to work.

I don’t necessarily see Lambert as a bigger gamble than anyone else available in this range.

All prospects are gambles, of course.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He has 29 pts in 59 games that puts him at .492 PPG. It doesn't matter if you are an offensive dman or not... data has shown that most guys who go on to make it top-4 d-men tend to score in the minors. Even Stanley had 17 pts in his draft year in only 5 more games than this guy. I do not look at those stats and think "that's a sure fire top-4 pick".



One guy is playing against men in a men's league where icetime is limited for younger players. The other is playing against people closer to his age and skillset on a team whose entire purpose is to give the players enough ice to develop them... completely incomparable situation. The guy who went 1st overall only had 10 points in the Liiga and was 13th among forwards on his team for points.

I looked at his USHL stats. You are looking only at his USNTDP numbers. I don't even know who they play those games against. It is not a league. Are those 'exhibition' games? Whatever, combine the 2 and he had 44 pts in 85 games. .518
Stanley's 17 came in 64 games, .266.

Still not a "sure fire" top 4 pick. There aren't very many "sure fire" players available in the draft. On avg, about 5.

Right, why I said FWIW. Someone was trying to make too much about his position on his team, IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Your guesses are unreasonable. None of the D-men you are looking at have anywhere close to a 10% chance of turning into top pair nor do they have an average chance of becoming second pair. Based on where they are in the draft it's more like < 1% chance of becoming top pair, ~20% chance of becoming middle pair 25% chance of becoming bottom pair or lower and 50% chance of never playing more then a handful of NHL games.

Lambert has a similarly low chance to become an NHL player, but his skill level is vastly higher then the guys you'd like to draft. Unlike the guys you want he has the raw skills to become a star player in the NHL and not just a guy you can pick up for $2 million in free agency.

Yes, your estimates for the Dmen are probably closer, though I think <1% top pair is too low.

But you are also saying the same odds apply to Lambert except that if he hits, he hits higher. I'll grant you the higher ceiling. I have never disputed that. But the huge skill level you are looking at seems to be mostly just skating. Much as I dislike drafting players who can't skate well, I dislike drafting players who can only skate. And you are ignoring all other factors. The rumoured attitude. The interfering father. The drop in performance from D-1 to D years.

The poor performance in Liiga could simply be that he was pushed in over his head. But he was in just as deeply in D-1 and was less bad. It is not the raw numbers that concern me. It is the trajectory.

Whatever, the pick has been made. Jets chose the higher risk player in the hope of getting the higher reward. I don't like that choice but I will hope it works out and cheer for Lambert as he develops.

 

[Ippenator]

A ton of points at the WJC might influence the Jets to send him to the AHL instead of the WHL. If he is that able to dominate at that level, maybe the AHL is the best place for him to go.

What can you say about his work ethic? If he has a good off-season of training he might be more ready for the AHL too.

He seems pretty good with his work ethic in forechecking, although I do think that he could have even more intensity with it. Or lets say, his intensity seems to be varying a bit too much. But he can be quite frustrated when he loses the puck (which happens way too often) and often he does look a bit flegmatic with his backchecking. I don’t also like his work ethic too much at his own end, although it’s not hopeless in my opinion. It just seems to be varying with the intensity way too much, just like his forechecking. It might have to do with young age, at least partially. I do think that he could definitely use a better work ethic, but on the other hand I think that’s not even close to his biggest problems. All his real problems have to do with not so good vision, poor decision making and difficulties in reading plays.

I do think that the best places for him to play would be in the AHL or if he would stay still in Finland, then a team like Jukurit that has a coach like Olli Jokinen, who seems to be really good with coaching youngsters and gives them a lot of trust, responsibility and appropriate guidance. I don’t think Lambert will get anything good from playing in the WHL though. On the contrary, there he will get back to his bad habits of relying way too much on his skating speed and will not need to develop in making smarter plays to solve much tighter defending that AHL or Liiga will provide.

 

[JetsFan815]

I looked at his USHL stats. You are looking only at his USNTDP numbers. I don't even know who they play those games against. It is not a league. Are those 'exhibition' games? Whatever, combine the 2 and he had 44 pts in 85 games. .518
Stanley's 17 came in 64 games, .266.

Still not a "sure fire" top 4 pick. There aren't very many "sure fire" players available in the draft. On avg, about 5.

Right, why I said FWIW. Someone was trying to make too much about his position on his team, IMO.

You can't combine the USHL and USNTDP numbers because the the USNTDP numbers already include the USHL games. The 26 games he played in USHL are included in the 59 total games with U.S. National U18 Team listed on elite prospects. USDP plays games in the USHL, international youth teams of varying countries and DIII to DI NCAA teams, all those are combined listed under the league USDP on EP, if you go on the USDP website they list the aggregate games (59 for him). So it is still pretty underwhelming .492 PPG on a team where literally everyone seems to be scoring big.

Again we are not talking about picking between Lambert and a 6'3 210 lbs d-man with elite skating and physicality who put up .85PPG in the minors. Almost all the guys in that range seem have baggage of their own (questionable scoring, lack of size etc). So we are essentially talking about what kind of baggage you want. I don't think Lambert is some kind of world beater but it seems worth a risk to me to try to bet on his tools and discount this as just a bad year (when his numbers in his d-1 season were pretty elite looking). I am perfectly fine rolling the dice on a guy like this to see what happens even if the modal outcome is a bust as there is a lot of upside. This is not Jets picking Stanley type of situation where the modal outcome was a bust and there wasn't a high ceiling.

 

[Ippenator]

A ton of points at the WJC might influence the Jets to send him to the AHL instead of the WHL. If he is that able to dominate at that level, maybe the AHL is the best place for him to go.

What can you say about his work ethic? If he has a good off-season of training he might be more ready for the AHL too.

I in fact understood only now that you probably asked about how his work ethic is with training. I can’t say that I know in very detailed way about his training, but at least his JYP coach Jukka Ahvenjärvi was praising his work ethic a lot. He defended Lambert at the end of last year when Lambert was criticized a lot for poor play and the U20 national team coach had just demoted him to the challenger team a few weeks before the U20 WJC. Ahvenjärvi said that with Lambert’s talent and the very good effort that he has with his training, there should be good results eventually.

Oh, and now he has been training this summer with Gary Roberts’ group since he came for the combine.

 

[Finnflash]

What I was trying to get at with my last post is put up a quantifiable prediction so we can come back and check.

Put your money where your mouth is.

Again what stats would show anyone he is improving or not a bust? What would show he is a good 1st, 2nd, third line Center or wing. If we can’t use stats to prove our assumptions what good are they.

And to those who are against stats or advanced stats what would you see as measure that he improved or was less than/more than what you predicted.

It’s easy to make assumptions without putting forth a predictable and quantifiable measure.

I predicted mine in the last post (realize they aren’t the best but ).

Again put your money where your mouth leads you good or bad.

 

[Ippenator]

What I was trying to get at with my last post is put up a quantifiable prediction so we can come back and check.

Put your money where your mouth is.

Again what stats would show anyone he is improving or not a bust? What would show he is a good 1st, 2nd, third line Center or wing. If we can’t use stats to prove our assumptions what good are they.

And to those who are against stats or advanced stats what would you see as measure that he improved or was less than/more than what you predicted.

It’s easy to make assumptions without putting forth a predictable and quantifiable measure.

I predicted mine in the last post (realize they aren’t the best but ).

Again put your money where your mouth leads you good or bad.

For me a very good sign would be clearly over 0.5 PPG in AHL and something closer to 1.0 PPG in Liiga. I hope he will play in either of those leagues, but if he after all plays in WHL, then there I’m expecting him to get at least 100 points or maybe even closer to 2.0 PPG, to really trust in him making progress. Also I would want to see his 5 on 5 goal difference to be clearly positive in any of those leagues. Of course I would also still need to see him play, and hopefully I would see him finding his teammates a lot better with quicker and more accurate passing, and without making as much bad decisions leading into turnovers as he did during the last two seasons.

If something like this would happen already next season, then I would have to probably start believing that he could be even a top 6 player in the NHL at some point. But if he doesn’t get even close to any of those numbers, then I will have to say that I will be even more convinced in him not having at least any star potential and being at best a bottom 6 forward if he would even make an NHL career after all.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I in fact understood only now that you probably asked about how his work ethic is with training. I can’t say that I know in very detailed way about his training, but at least his JYP coach Jukka Ahvenjärvi was praising his work ethic a lot. He defended Lambert at the end of last year when Lambert was criticized a lot for poor play and U20 national team coach had just demoted him to the challenger team a few weeks before the U20 WJC. Ahvenjärvi said that with Lambert’s talent and the very good effort that he has with his training, there should be good results eventually.

Oh, and now he has been training this summer with Gary Roberts’ group since he came for the combine.

Well, thank God he's not training with Hannu Rautala. We would need a whole separate thread for discussing everything that is wrong with Lambert's off-season training program.

 

[Fintastic]

If he goes to the WHL he will need to play centre or he will get frustrated.

Putting him as center as equal to saying gopdbye to his NHL career. He doesn't have good enough reflexes to be a good face off taker nor his positional play defensively is not nearlv good enough. His level of play dropped a lot when he was played as center. As winger he is much better. Let's put it this way, if he develops nicely IMO his cealing as winger 2nd line NHLer, as a center a 3rd line AHLer.

 

[Fintastic]

Slafkovsky wouldn’t have been the number one pick unless he had unbelievable olympics and WHC against top class adults with a lot of NHL players at the WHC tournament. Honestly his production in Liiga was surprisingly weak. Although he also didn’t get too much of minutes until later in the season.

When he was in the national team, he had the best linemates Slovakia had to offer, in TPS that was not the case. Sure, the kid has skills and tons of potential but I would say he benefitted alot of his linemates in their National team. That is the reason of why his point production differs so much from TPS to the Slovakian national team.

 

[Monkey D Luffy]

Slafkovsky wouldn’t have been the number one pick unless he had unbelievable olympics and WHC against top class adults with a lot of NHL players at the WHC tournament. Honestly his production in Liiga was surprisingly weak. Although he also didn’t get too much of minutes until later in the season.

And Lambert was dominant against guys older than him in the WJC. Your point?

 

[Ippenator]

And Lambert was dominant against guys older than him in the WJC. Your point?

Against weak teams like Germany and Austria, and in only two games. How Slafkovsky did against the adult professionals and in two tournaments, was enormously more impressive.

When he was in the national team, he had the best linemates Slovakia had to offer, in TPS that was not the case. Sure, the kid has skills and tons of potential but I would say he benefitted alot of his linemates in their National team. That is the reason of why his point production differs so much from TPS to the Slovakian national team.

He played to deserve that spot. He wasn’t right away given it, but earned it after playing really well right from the spot.

 

[Monkey D Luffy]

He seems pretty good with his work ethic in forechecking, although I do think that he could have even more intensity with it. Or lets say, his intensity seems to be varying a bit too much. But he can be quite frustrated when he loses the puck (which happens way too often) and often he does look a bit flegmatic with his backchecking. I don’t also like his work ethic too much at his own end, although it’s not hopeless in my opinion. It just seems to be varying with the intensity way too much, just like his forechecking. It might have to do with young age, at least partially. I do think that he could definitely use a better work ethic, but on the other hand I think that’s not even close to his biggest problems. All his real problems have to do with not so good vision, poor decision making and difficulties in reading plays.

I do think that the best places for him to play would be in the AHL or if he would stay still in Finland, then a team like Jukurit that has a coach like Olli Jokinen, who seems to be really good with coaching youngsters and gives them a lot of trust, responsibility and appropriate guidance. I don’t think Lambert will get anything good from playing in the WHL though. On the contrary, there he will get back to his bad habits of relying way too much on his skating speed and will not need to develop in making smarter plays to solve much tighter defending that AHL or Liiga will provide.

He said he will play wherever the Jets want him to play and I can guarantee you that will not be in Finland.

 

[Ippenator]

He said he will play wherever the Jets want him to play and I can guarantee you that will not be in Finland.

We will see. I think it is also likelier that he plays in North America. But it will be a big mistake, if he plays in the WHL next season. He will learn nothing there. The competition is so much more inferior than in the AHL or in Liiga. In the WHL he will only get to go on with his bad habit of relying completely in his excellent skating instead of working on his decision making and passing game against well defending and more physical opponents.

 

[Monkey D Luffy]

We will see. I think it is also likelier that he plays in North America. But it will be a big mistake, if he plays in the WHL next season. He will learn nothing there. The competition is so much more inferior than in the AHL or in Liiga. In the WHL he will only get to go on with his bad habit of relying completely in his excellent skating instead of working on his decision making and passing game against well defending and more physical opponents.

I guess it's how you look at his shortcomings. I'd love to see him light it up in the WHL.

Have fun playing hockey again. Winning a Memorial cup in Seattle would be a great confidence boost.

It's very interesting to hear that some people don't think playing against guys your own age and playing tons of minutes will help. Scheif played 2 more years in the OHL, Trouba played a year in college, Morrissey played 2 more years in the WHL, and Ehlers played another year in the WHL.

Worked out pretty well if you ask me.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I guess it's how you look at his shortcomings. I'd love to see him light it up in the WHL.

Have fun playing hockey again. Winning a Memorial cup in Seattle would be a great confidence boost.

It's very interesting to hear that some people don't think playing against guys your own age and playing tons of minutes will help. Scheif played 2 more years in the OHL, Trouba played a year in college, Morrissey played 2 more years in the WHL, and Ehlers played another year in the WHL.

Worked out pretty well if you ask me.

Ehlers is an interesting comparison -- not in terms of his achievements or upside -- since while he'd been spectacular in his draft year, there still seemed to be a few pundits and fans questioning his size and ability to drive play on his own, the infamous "product of Drouin" narrative. And, of course, the "skates circles up and down the ice but lacks the hockey sense to make it work against bigger, stronger NHL players" narrative.

Lambert is a long way from Ehlers, but given their very different development paths it might be interesting to see him playing an Ehlers-type role in the CHL, given space to grow his offensive game while utilizing his speed and hands and looking to rack up points and round out his game a little before heading to the A.

Ehlers has become the elite, play-driving winger many hoped he would be -- no reason that Lambert's speed and skill can't be worked into some version of that, given committment, effort and careful development. What a result for the Jets if he can do it.

 

[Daximus]

We will see. I think it is also likelier that he plays in North America. But it will be a big mistake, if he plays in the WHL next season. He will learn nothing there. The competition is so much more inferior than in the AHL or in Liiga. In the WHL he will only get to go on with his bad habit of relying completely in his excellent skating instead of working on his decision making and passing game against well defending and more physical opponents.

I remember all the Russian posters saying that about Kucherov. How the Q will ruin him and it's an inferior league to play in and he will learn nothing there. Wonder how that turned out?

I guess it's how you look at his shortcomings. I'd love to see him light it up in the WHL.

Have fun playing hockey again. Winning a Memorial cup in Seattle would be a great confidence boost.

It's very interesting to hear that some people don't think playing against guys your own age and playing tons of minutes will help. Scheif played 2 more years in the OHL, Trouba played a year in college, Morrissey played 2 more years in the WHL, and Ehlers played another year in the WHL.

Worked out pretty well if you ask me.

There's this weird narrative that playing in the best junior leagues in the world bar none as a junior player is somehow a bad thing. Especially when the player in question hasn't done anything yet to prove they can hang in Liiga let alone the AHL where the physicality is significantly more brutal.

 

[Jet]

I guess it's how you look at his shortcomings. I'd love to see him light it up in the WHL.

Have fun playing hockey again. Winning a Memorial cup in Seattle would be a great confidence boost.

It's very interesting to hear that some people don't think playing against guys your own age and playing tons of minutes will help. Scheif played 2 more years in the OHL, Trouba played a year in college, Morrissey played 2 more years in the WHL, and Ehlers played another year in the WHL.

Worked out pretty well if you ask me.

I agree. He's also still very young. Giving him a year in the whl to get his legs back under him and then turning pro the following year is still well within a sensible dev curve

 

[Daximus]

Ehlers is an interesting comparison -- not in terms of his achievements or upside -- since while he'd been spectacular in his draft year, there still seemed to be a few pundits and fans questioning his size and ability to drive play on his own, the infamous "product of Drouin" narrative. And, of course, the "skates circles up and down the ice but lacks the hockey sense to make it work against bigger, stronger NHL players" narrative.

Lambert is a long way from Ehlers, but give their very different development paths it might be interesting to see him playing an Ehlers-type role, given space to grow his offensive game while utilizing his speed and hands and looking to rack up points and round out his game a little before heading to the A.

Ehlers has become the elite, play-driving winger many hoped he would be -- no reason that Lambert's speed and skill can't be worked into some version of that, given effort and careful development. What a result for the Jets if he can do it.

I actually think they are very comparable players at a glance. Though Lambert seems to be a bit more of a natural facilitator while Ehlers seems to be a bit more of a natural shooter.

 

[Flair Hay]

For me a very good sign would be clearly over 0.5 PPG in AHL and something closer to 1.0 PPG in Liiga. I hope he will play in either of those leagues, but if he after all plays in WHL, then there I’m expecting him to get at least 100 points or maybe even closer to 2.0 PPG, to really trust in him making progress. Also I would want to see his 5 on 5 goal difference to be clearly positive in any of those leagues. Of course I would also still need to see him play, and hopefully I would see him finding his teammates a lot better with quicker and more accurate passing, and without making as much bad decisions leading into turnovers as he did during the last two seasons.

If something like this would happen already next season, then I would have to probably start believing that he could be even a top 6 player in the NHL at some point. But if he doesn’t get even close to any of those numbers, then I will have to say that I will be even more convinced in him not having at least any star potential and being at best a bottom 6 forward if he would even make an NHL career after all.

Agree with pretty much everything here.

I'd imagine the Jets will want him in Seattle, with some AHL time after the WHL season ends

 

[tbcwpg]

For me a very good sign would be clearly over 0.5 PPG in AHL and something closer to 1.0 PPG in Liiga. I hope he will play in either of those leagues, but if he after all plays in WHL, then there I’m expecting him to get at least 100 points or maybe even closer to 2.0 PPG, to really trust in him making progress. Also I would want to see his 5 on 5 goal difference to be clearly positive in any of those leagues. Of course I would also still need to see him play, and hopefully I would see him finding his teammates a lot better with quicker and more accurate passing, and without making as much bad decisions leading into turnovers as he did during the last two seasons.

If something like this would happen already next season, then I would have to probably start believing that he could be even a top 6 player in the NHL at some point. But if he doesn’t get even close to any of those numbers, then I will have to say that I will be even more convinced in him not having at least any star potential and being at best a bottom 6 forward if he would even make an NHL career after all.

The top scorer in the WHL this season was Arshdeep Bains, he scored 112 points in 68 games, or a 1.64.

Conor Bedard, the player teams are tanking for, got 1.61.

A comparable might be Dylan Guenther, he was the 9th overall pick last year, he got 91 points in 59 games with Edmonton, who won the league this season. 1.54 PPG.

The point is, I don't think expecting 100 points minimum (something only 4 players did), or even more crazy, 2.0 PPG (which no player came close to), or he's a bust, is a very fair assessment.