Prospect Info: Brad Lambert, 30th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[Daximus]

The top scorer in the WHL this season was Arshdeep Bains, he scored 112 points in 68 games, or a 1.64.

Conor Bedard, the player teams are tanking for, got 1.61.

A comparable might be Dylan Guenther, he was the 9th overall pick last year, he got 91 points in 59 games with Edmonton, who won the league this season. 1.54 PPG.

The point is, I don't think expecting 100 points minimum (something only 4 players did), or even more crazy, 2.0 PPG (which no player came close to), or he's a bust, is a very fair assessment.

Yeah there's no chance in hell he's hitting 2 PPG. Even on a contender like Seattle even if he is the best player in the league.

 

[Jukurit]

I think staying in Liiga would be a mistake. It clearly hasn't worked out so far. Aatu Räty's problems seems to have been with Kärpät. Switched teams and immediately started playing better. Lambert has already switched teams and it didn't work. I guess you could make the arguments that JYP was bad and Pelicans had a "weird" playstyle that didn't suit Lambert. And on a better Liiga team Lambert would be able to play to his strengths more. But I'm sceptical. I think Lambert's skillset and playstyle are better suited for small ice and NA playstyle.

Not really a fan of going to WHL either. At that level Lambert's skating would probably just mask most of his flaws and he wouldn't have improve on them. But putting up points for a change would be good for confidence obviously.

So, in order of preference, I would go: AHL > WHL > Liiga

But of course, let's wait and see what he does at WJC and Pre-Season.

 

[Ippenator]

Yeah there's no chance in hell he's hitting 2 PPG. Even on a contender like Seattle even if he is the best player in the league.

He will be already 20 years old during next season and he is physically more advanced than the majority of the players in the WHL. He has also probably the best skating skills in the whole league. If a year younger Aleksi Heponiemi got over 2.0 PPG as a physical weakling and clearly less impressive skating, and if Lambert will not with a lot better physical tools get around 2.0 PPG in the same league, it doesn’t tell too good things about him as a player. Overagers who are physically readier than most of the other players in the league do always substantially well in junior leagues. If he can’t do that, it will not tell good things about his true talent.

 

[Daximus]

He will be already 20 years old during next season and he is physically more advanced than the majority of the players in the WHL. He has also probably the best skating skills in the whole league. If a year younger Aleksi Heponiemi got over 2.0 PPG as a physical weakling and clearly less impressive skating, and if Lambert will not with a lot better physical tools get around 2.0 PPG in the same league, it doesn’t tell too good things about him as a player. Overagers who are physically readier than most of the other players in the league do always substantially well in junior leagues. If he can’t do that, it will not tell good things about his true talent.

He's hardly physically more advanced than most player in the league. The kid still looks like a baby. I'd be surprised if he can grow a pencil stache at this point.

 

[WiscoJet]

He will be already 20 years old during next season and he is physically more advanced than the majority of the players in the WHL. He has also probably the best skating skills in the whole league. If a year younger Aleksi Heponiemi got over 2.0 PPG as a physical weakling and clearly less impressive skating, and if Lambert will not with a lot better physical tools get around 2.0 PPG in the same league, it doesn’t tell too good things about him as a player. Overagers who are physically readier than most of the other players in the league do always substantially well in junior leagues. If he can’t do that, it will not tell good things about his true talent.

No he won't he turns 19 in December.

 

[Ippenator]

He's hardly physically more advanced than most player in the league. The kid still looks like a baby. I'd be surprised if he can grow a pencil stache at this point.

He isn’t at all a weakling. He wasn’t in fact that bad in battles against adult Liiga professionals last season. His problems were completely elsewhere.

No he won't he turns 19 in December.

Oh, sorry that’s of course true. That he doesn’t turn 20 during the season of course. But he does turn 20 next year anyway. So he is anyway almost a year older than Heponiemi was when he scored over 2.0 PPG in the WHL.

 

[Daximus]

He isn’t at all a weakling. He wasn’t in fact that bad in battles against adult Liiga professionals last season. His problems were completely elsewhere.


Oh, sorry that’s of course true. That he doesn’t turn 20 during the season of course. But he does turn 20 next year anyway.

And yeah like stated above he will be 19 in January, not 20. He is far from the most physically advanced player in the Dub. There are 17 year olds in the Dub that could use him as toilet paper if they so pleased.

 

[Jukurit]

He isn’t at all a weakling. He wasn’t in fact that bad in battles against adult Liiga professionals last season. His problems were completely elsewhere.

I disagree with this. I thought Lambert was really easy to push off the puck in Liiga. Also he's still pretty skinny.

 

[Duke749]

He isn’t at all a weakling. He wasn’t in fact that bad in battles against adult Liiga professionals last season. His problems were completely elsewhere.


Oh, sorry that’s of course true. That he doesn’t turn 20 during the season of course. But he does turn 20 next year anyway. So he is anyway almost a year older than Heponiemi was when he scored over 2.0 PPG in the WHL.

That’s almost a year in a half away. Why is it even relevant? It’s not.

Expecting him to put up 2.0ppg in the WHL next year is completely unrealistic. Would it be nice? Of course. But it rarely happens.

 

[snowkiddin]

He will be already 20 years old during next season and he is physically more advanced than the majority of the players in the WHL. He has also probably the best skating skills in the whole league. If a year younger Aleksi Heponiemi got over 2.0 PPG as a physical weakling and clearly less impressive skating, and if Lambert will not with a lot better physical tools get around 2.0 PPG in the same league, it doesn’t tell too good things about him as a player. Overagers who are physically readier than most of the other players in the league do always substantially well in junior leagues. If he can’t do that, it will not tell good things about his true talent.

I think you’re setting the bar a bit high there expecting a player taken near the end of the first round to score at 2.0 PPG in the Dub next season. How often has ANYONE scored at that rate in the last 25 years in the WHL? Can’t be more than a few.

 

[Daximus]

That’s almost a year in a half away. Why is it even relevant? It’s not.

Expecting him to put up 2.0ppg in the WHL next year is completely unrealistic. Would it be nice? Of course. But it rarely happens.

Yeah two players have done it since the year 2000. 2 players in over 22 years have hit 2PPG in the WHL and both did it in two of the higher scoring seasons during that time frame. The Dub is not as weak as it was during those two years. Especially since we have allowed import goalies back into the league.

 

[tbcwpg]

He isn’t at all a weakling. He wasn’t in fact that bad in battles against adult Liiga professionals last season. His problems were completely elsewhere.


Oh, sorry that’s of course true. That he doesn’t turn 20 during the season of course. But he does turn 20 next year anyway. So he is anyway almost a year older than Heponiemi was when he scored over 2.0 PPG in the WHL.

I mean, again, if you're saying he's going to be a poor NHL player if he doesn't get 2 PPG in the WHL, you're setting him up for failure already. No one hit that this year, including last season's 9th overall pick.

 

[Ippenator]

I disagree with this. I thought Lambert was really easy to push off the puck in Liiga. Also he's still pretty skinny.

Well he is 6’0” tall and he weighs around 183 lbs. Kucherov is 5’11” and 183 lbs, Aho is 6’0” and 176 lbs, Point is 5’10” and 183 lbs, Marner is 6’0” and 172 lbs, Ehlers 6’0” and 172 lbs, Connor 6’1” and 183 lbs, etc. I haven’t seen those guys having much of problems with their strength and size. It’s because that type of size is in fact quite ideal for players whose strength is quickness and speed.

 

[Ippenator]

I think you’re setting the bar a bit high there expecting a player taken near the end of the first round to score at 2.0 PPG in the Dub next season. How often has ANYONE scored at that rate in the last 25 years in the WHL? Can’t be more than a few.

I wasn’t really expecting him to get 2.0 PPG, I honestly doubt it very much that he gets even very close to 100 points with his hockey IQ. But if he would get after all 100 points, then it would maybe start changing how I see his potential as a player. Over 2.0 PPG would make me feel even quite optimistic about his chances to have a good NHL career in even an offensive role after all. Clearly under 100 points will make me continue with my not very high expectations on his NHL career.

 

[snowkiddin]

Dylan Guenther was the highest pick out of the WHL last season and he scored 91 points in 59 games. Is that not acceptable? What are your expectations for his NHL career?

I’m just curious as to why we need an arbitrary point total for Lambert before we can start to get excited about his NHL future.

Edit - @Ippenator, sorry the quote function didn’t work.

 

[Ippenator]

Dylan Guenther was the highest pick out of the WHL last season and he scored 91 points in 59 games. Is that not acceptable? What are your expectations for his NHL career?

I’m just curious as to why we need an arbitrary point total for Lambert before we can start to get excited about his NHL future.

Edit - @Ippenator, sorry the quote function didn’t work.

Because so far he has shown bad hockey IQ and bad decision making. They are the things hindering his production. If he finally starts producing and gets high class production, it gives some real hope for him solving his bad decision making problems. The production just needs to be quite substantial, as it’s quite well known that a player with excellent skating and good hands alone can get quite high point totals in junior leagues, even if they have quite mediocre hockey IQ. But those players usually run into a wall with their production, when they start playing against professional adults. Btw, 90 points is still quite close to 100 points, so depending on the amount of games he plays, it might be a quite encouraging sign, if he gets that kind of a point total if he plays in the WHL.

 

[tbcwpg]

Because so far he has shown bad hockey IQ and bad decision making. They are the things hindering his production. If he finally starts producing and gets high class production, it gives some real hope for him solving his bad decision making problems. The production just needs to be quite substantial, as it’s quite well known that a player with excellent skating and good hands alone can get quite high point totals in junior leagues, even if they have quite mediocre hockey IQ. But those players usually run into a wall with their production, when they start playing against professional adults. Btw, 90 points is still quite close to 100 points, so depending on the amount of games he plays, it might be a quite encouraging sign, if he gets that kind of a point total if he plays in the WHL.

Given where he was picked I'd be very happy with a 2nd line NHL career.

Talent alone can put up big numbers on junior though. He doesn't need high IQ or decision making for that.

 

[lomiller1]

The flaw with this argument is that SHL and KHL are much better leagues than Liiga.
Also, Slafkovsky has been criticized for his lack of production in Liiga, but his production and play with Slovak NT is the thing that got him drafted #1 overall, I think.

Would make more sense to compare Lambert's production to other draft year Liiga prospects.
Here's a handy Points/60 comparison to other Liiga prospects (since 2015):

Kakko 2.79
Laine 2.49
Lundell 2.41
Puljujärvi 2.23
Kemell 2.18
Aho 2.12
Kotkaniemi 1.96
Rantanen 1.85
Kupari 1.78
Slafkovsky 1.36
Lambert 0.86

Ouch.

The sample sizes are probably too small for many of these to be meaningful. Eg
Aho had 13 points in 30 regular season games while Slafkovsky had 10 points in 31 games. The difference between the two is really just a couple bounces one way or the other, but those bounces made for a massive difference in P60 (2.12 vs 1.36)

 

[lomiller1]

Putting him as center as equal to saying gopdbye to his NHL career. He doesn't have good enough reflexes to be a good face off taker nor his positional play defensively is not nearlv good enough. His level of play dropped a lot when he was played as center. As winger he is much better. Let's put it this way, if he develops nicely IMO his cealing as winger 2nd line NHLer, as a center a 3rd line AHLer.

Take a look at the video in post #21. He was actually far more effective at center then on the wing. In particular, while he was playing C his zone entry and zone exit percentages were among the best in Liiga. When he was moved to the wing, these dropped precipitously, how much of that was due to the crappy breakout scheme the Pelicans were running is hard to say.

 

[Jukurit]

The sample sizes are probably too small for many of these to be meaningful. Eg
Aho had 13 points in 30 regular season games while Slafkovsky had 10 points in 31 games. The difference between the two is really just a couple bounces one way or the other, but those bounces made for a massive difference in P60 (2.12 vs 1.36)

Well, not entirely. If Slafkovsky scored 13 points in 31 games, his P/60 would have been 1.77, closer to Aho's 2.12, but not quite. Slaf would have had to score about 16 points in 31 games to reach Aho's P/60. So 6 more points than he had.

The point with this P/60 comparison wasn't the specifics, but the big picture. Amongst all first rounders (+ Aho) in their draft years in Liiga since 2015, Slaf and Lambert "clearly" rank as the worst. Of course, doesn't mean they suck or anything, but I thought it was just interesting.

 

[Monkey D Luffy]

Yeah there's no chance in hell he's hitting 2 PPG. Even on a contender like Seattle even if he is the best player in the league.

You sure? Nik Ehlers did it in 2014-15 51GP 101 Points.

 

[Daximus]

You sure? Nik Ehlers did it in 2014-15 51GP 101 Points.

In the Q yeah. Not in the Dub though where scoring is generally more difficult.

 

[garret9]

I understand you and feel for you. I would say the same if I was getting my bread and butter through selling advanced stats to people that want to desperately believe in them. Thank God I
have other income sources than selling snake oil though.

Lol ya that's why I argue on HF boards, because it'll get me paid haha


Meanwhile, the guy that created a model to evaluate individuals (and a former employee of mine) and a guy that wrote for me at HockeyGraphs just won a cup with a team that did really well building around some elite talent through FA and trade, most of which are players that do well in those models...

Hmmm

 

[gojetsgo]

2022 NHL Draft Diary: Brad Lambert | NHL.com

Forward looks ahead to World Juniors after being selected by Jets in 2022 Draft

www.nhl.com

I'm not sure where I'll be playing next season. I'll go to Jets training camp and we'll see after that where the best place for my development is. For now my focus is on making Finland's team for the World Juniors.

 

[Ippenator]

Dylan Guenther was the highest pick out of the WHL last season and he scored 91 points in 59 games. Is that not acceptable? What are your expectations for his NHL career?

I’m just curious as to why we need an arbitrary point total for Lambert before we can start to get excited about his NHL future.

Edit - @Ippenator, sorry the quote function didn’t work.

Oh, and as you probably didn’t notice, one poster was exactly hoping for people to make some suggestions on what kind of performances in different leagues that might be his option for next season, could mean that he is progressing well with his development. So I was in fact just making the arbitrary point amount to answer to that posters wish.