Bozak vs RNH

[sansabri]

Who's the better player?

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[Fugazy]

Nugent-Hopkins.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Bozak

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

Bozak had a better season last year but RNH all the way.

Bozak just had his first 50 point season at 31 years old. At 24 RNH already has 3 50 point seasons.

Also it should be noted that when Bozak was RNHs age he had 59 points. That is over 200 less points than RNH currently has.

 

[Redline]

RNH at 6 million for 4 more years is ugly. If he's better it's marginally and that contract more than wipes out a minuscule difference in ability.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

RNH is the better player since Bozak is so damn one dimensional but with contracts in play its Bozak easily, RNH has negative value and I'm pretty sure this poll was inspired by a horrifying RNH for Bozak AND JVR trade proposal, in which case you are not proving yourself by asking whose better instead of who has better value.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Nuge is the better player, Bozak has better value.

 

[Morgs]

RNH is better, but if contracts were included I'd take Bozak on the Leafs 10/10 times.

 

[Brock Radunske]

If you consider contract and production, it has to be Bozak.

That being said, Bozak is what he is but I think RNH can offer more if he can get the heck out of Edmonton.

 

[Menzinger]

RNH is better defensively, but has a worse contract.

Bozak is reliable, cheaper and good for close to 50 points. Given that each player thrives lower on the depth chart, Bozak is likely the better buy for a team looking to fill out their roster even if RNH is mildly better

 

[Randy Randerson]

I'm sure it's intentional, but this poll is framed to end in RNH>Bozak by not considering the contract. They're the same tier of player, RNH is much younger and should have many more good years left than Bozak, he's also 25-35% overpaid for 4 more years

their current trade value probably favours Bozak because of how small the market is for non-impact guys who are overpaid for a long time

Bozak had a better season last year but RNH all the way.

Bozak just had his first 50 point season at 31 years old. At 24 RNH already has 3 50 point seasons.

Also it should be noted that when Bozak was RNHs age he had 59 points. That is over 200 less points than RNH currently has.

comparing #1OA picks and overage college free agent signings at 24 is a terrible measure, obviously the guy who an organization spent their #1 pick on is going to get a boatload more opportunity in his late teens and early 20's than the guy who's still playing in college without an NHL contract

also not sure why you'd want to downplay the most recent play of either player, it's easy to put too much stock into the last season, but it's still the most valuable data set available


I actually do agree that RNH is the marginally better player, but citing frequency of 50pt seasons where one player has an injury history and wanting to compare them at the same age where one player was literally picked as high as he could be at 18 and the other wasn't on the NHL radar until he was too old to be drafted at all while wanting to downplay the most recent data set exposes a very thinly veiled bias

 

[A91]

 

[belair]

RNH at 6 million for 4 more years is ugly. If he's better it's marginally and that contract more than wipes out a minuscule difference in ability.

Did you read the poll? Who is the better player?

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

comparing #1OA picks and overage college free agent signings at 24 is a terrible measure, obviously the guy who an organization spent their #1 pick on is going to get a boatload more opportunity in his late teens and early 20's than the guy who's still playing in college without an NHL contract

I think you are forgetting that the reason RNH was drafted 1st overall is that he had a lot of skill. It wasn't luck. Bozak on the other hand wasn't that good. Sure he got a lot better but he didn't start really becoming an everyday NHL player until he is Nuges age now.

also not sure why you'd want to downplay the most recent play of either player, it's easy to put too much stock into the last season, but it's still the most valuable data set available

I am not down playing his last season. It was a career year for him. At 31 years old though. I don't have a lot of confidence that he will be a 55 point player going forward. Even if he is, he isn't that good defensively at all. I feel RNH doesn't actually get the credit he deserves for playing both ends of the ice. He focused a lot on the defensive side of the game the last few seasons which would be especially difficult playing with offensive floaters like Poiliot, Eberle, Purcell, Yakupov and even Taylor Hall. For the last 6 years he has been going up against Kopitar, Getzlaf, Thornton, Pavelski, Henrick Sedin ect every night. He has certainly struggled but is really coming around. I don't feel the same way about Bozak.

I actually do agree that RNH is the marginally better player, but citing frequency of 50pt seasons where one player has an injury history and wanting to compare them at the same age where one player was literally picked as high as he could be at 18 and the other wasn't on the NHL radar until he was too old to be drafted at all while wanting to downplay the most recent data set exposes a very thinly veiled bias

Injury history? What the heck are you talking about? Since RNH entered the league Bozak has missed 64 games because of injury. RNH has missed 63 games because of injury. Is that 1 game really that big of a difference?

Again. The reason why RNH was picked in the draft and Bozak wasn't is because RNH had way more skill. Bozak really jumped up and became a way better hockey player when he was about the same age RNH is now. I think that means something when comparing players. RNH still has a much higher ceiling.

I don't know why I have to explain that when looking at career trajectory. I get that no ones trajectory is the same but cmon. RNH has proved to be the better player at both ends of the ice during his career and still has a ton of room to potentially go. Bozak is IMO about as good as he will be.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

I'd rather have RNH, I think. Bozak is cheaper, but I also wouldn't want him as as 2nd line C and he's a little expensive to put on the 3rd line; RNH may be a little expensive, but he's good enough to be a 2C on a good team.

 

[sansabri]

I'd rather have RNH, I think. Bozak is cheaper, but I also wouldn't want him as as 2nd line C and he's a little expensive to put on the 3rd line; RNH may be a little expensive, but he's good enough to be a 2C on a good team.

How I feel as well.

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

RNH at 6 million for 4 more years is ugly. If he's better it's marginally and that contract more than wipes out a minuscule difference in ability.

Meh its not that bad. If he gets 55 points next year (which is totally possible) he will be about a $6M player.

Washington just signed Oshie for 8 years at $5.75 after 3 straight 50-56 point seasons. That takes him to the age of 38!

RNH at $6M is not ideal but its for 4 more prime years. 24-28 years old. Isn't that when most forwards hit their prime?

I know Oshie is a better player but I would take RNH in his mid 20s over Oshie in his 30s at the same price.

This all depends on RNH having a bounce back year of course. Which I personally am totally expecting. If he has another sub 50 point season this year, then I will surely agree that his contract is becoming "ugly" but I'm willing to give him one more chance. I saw some serious skill his first couple of seasons and I refuse to believe that he just forgot how to play.

 

[LaymanX]

Man... can you imagine this poll back in 2014/15?

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think you are forgetting that the reason RNH was drafted 1st overall is that he had a lot of skill. It wasn't luck. Bozak on the other hand wasn't that good. Sure he got a lot better but he didn't start really becoming an everyday NHL player until he is Nuges age now.

RNH was better younger, for sure. Bozak wasn't consider an NHL caliber prospect until he was the top college UDFA of his year due to blooming late. Comparing them to being 24 years old, especially on aggregate points where one player has played nearly 400 games and the other had less than 120 is a glaringly bad measure

I am not down playing his last season. It was a career year for him. At 31 years old though. I don't have a lot of confidence that he will be a 55 point player going forward. Even if he is, he isn't that good defensively at all. I feel RNH doesn't actually get the credit he deserves for playing both ends of the ice. He focused a lot on the defensive side of the game the last few seasons which would be especially difficult playing with offensive floaters like Poiliot, Eberle, Purcell, Yakupov and even Taylor Hall. For the last 6 years he has been going up against Kopitar, Getzlaf, Thornton, Pavelski, Henrick Sedin ect every night. He has certainly struggled but is really coming around. I don't feel the same way about Bozak.

career year at 55pts, where he's had 49 twice (once in 58 games, which was his actual career year) and 47 in 73, while averaging ~51.5pts/82 games for his career? yep, really not a career outlier at all

RNH is a better defensive player for sure, Bozak's defensive liability gets way overstated as a result of playing the bulk of his career under coaches that didn't use structure, but he's not a great defensive center (other than being an elite faceoff guy). Have a look at all of Bozak's metrics before 15/16 compared to after 15/16, then do the same for the rest of the players who have played in both eras, you'll find a stark contrast to measurable defensive competency

Injury history? What the heck are you talking about? Since RNH entered the league Bozak has missed 64 games because of injury. RNH has missed 63 games because of injury. Is that 1 game really that big of a difference?

Again. The reason why RNH was picked in the draft and Bozak wasn't is because RNH had way more skill. Bozak really jumped up and became a way better hockey player when he was about the same age RNH is now. I think that means something when comparing players. RNH still has a much higher ceiling.

I don't know why I have to explain that when looking at career trajectory. I get that no ones trajectory is the same but cmon. RNH has proved to be the better player at both ends of the ice during his career and still has a ton of room to potentially go. Bozak is IMO about as good as he will be.

You wanted to talk about frequency of 50+ pt seasons, but also wanted to ignore Bozak's 49 in 58games & 47 in 73games - injuries have cost Bozak frequency of passing that mark while he's clearly displayed the ability to do it again and again

The reason that RNH was picked in the draft and Bozak wasn't is because RNH accomplished a lot more before his first year of eligibility, again this is a laughably bad measure when comparing high draft picks to UDFA's...unless you think Yakupov is better than Panarin too? He's certainly accomplished more in the NHL before 23 than Panarin did

I'm not sure why you'd think that RNH has a lot of room to grow either, that's not typical of 7th year NHL'ers. He may return to form as a Derek Stepan type producer, but I don't think it's realistic to expect him to blossom into a true #1C type player at this point

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I'm not a big fan of RNH at all... think hes pretty overrated, that being said hes better than bozak pretty easily(unless you take contracts into equation)

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

I'm not sure why you'd think that RNH has a lot of room to grow either, that's not typical of 7th year NHL'ers. He may return to form as a Derek Stepan type producer, but I don't think it's realistic to expect him to blossom into a true #1C type player at this point

Ill just talk about this last quote as we have both said what we wanted to say and no point in running in circles. Agree to disagree I suppose.

I am not going to check and see which players have and haven't improved in their 7th season but I will say this. Players who are 24 often start to fill out into their adult bodies. A guy like RNH who is really smart and has a lot of skill but hasn't improved much over the years should improve as he gets stronger. I feel a lot of his struggles had to do with his slight frame. He has always been 6ft tall and now he will hopefully have some muscle and strength to go along with his frame. He should be better at protecting the puck and muscling past guys ect. We saw glimpses of that last year.

When he was drafted, we were all told that he would take a while to fill in his body based on his slight body type. He is only 24 years old. Me personally, I went from being extremely skinny to being pretty big at about 25. I couldn't gain weight to save my life. Then all of a sudden I really filled into my 6ft frame. Without lifting any weights whatsoever I got a lot stronger. Everyone is different though so who knows. He does have access to some of the best trainers and dieticians in the world though so I don't see him having such a slight frame forever.

Derek Stepan is actually a decent comparable for what he could be. Keeping in mind that Stepan is 3 years older than RNH. I think most Oiler fans would be happy if RNH had a similar career trajectory as Stepan. At this point I don't think anyone is hoping for a #1C type as you say. I think he will be a decent #2 guy like Stepan. A guy who can get 50-55 points every year. Just maybe not on the Oilers as that position is obviously filled.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Ill just talk about this last quote as we have both said what we wanted to say and no point in running in circles. Agree to disagree I suppose.

I am not going to check and see which players have and haven't improved in their 7th season but I will say this. Players who are 24 often start to fill out into their adult bodies. A guy like RNH who is really smart and has a lot of skill but hasn't improved much over the years should improve as he gets stronger. I feel a lot of his struggles had to do with his slight frame. He has always been 6ft tall and now he will hopefully have some muscle and strength to go along with his frame. He should be better at protecting the puck and muscling past guys ect. We saw glimpses of that last year.

When he was drafted, we were all told that he would take a while to fill in his body based on his slight body type. He is only 24 years old. Me personally, I went from being extremely skinny to being pretty big at about 25. I couldn't gain weight to save my life. Then all of a sudden I really filled into my 6ft frame. Without lifting any weights whatsoever I got a lot stronger. Everyone is different though so who knows. He does have access to some of the best trainers and dieticians in the world though so I don't see him having such a slight frame forever.

Derek Stepan is actually a decent comparable for what he could be. Keeping in mind that Stepan is 3 years older than RNH. I think most Oiler fans would be happy if RNH had a similar career trajectory as Stepan. At this point I don't think anyone is hoping for a #1C type as you say. I think he will be a decent #2 guy like Stepan. A guy who can get 50-55 points every year. Just maybe not on the Oilers as that position is obviously filled.

most of the research that I've seen suggests that by 23/24 players are at/near their peak, staying at about that level until 28/29 before starting to significantly regress. All based on averages and there are certainly those who buck the trend

by 24 though, not many players are gaining significant weight or muscle as professional athletes, I guess there are those who buck that trend as well but that would be an extreme outlier unless he significantly changed what he was doing/eating/taking. I'd venture a guess that a #1OA draft pick whose known that he needed to gain weight since being drafted 7 years ago would have tried all the things that he's allowed to do within the rules. Wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 200 in his late 20's/30's, but that's not likely to be good weight either and marginally more than he weighs now. At 20-22 I would agree that lots of guys bulk up in a good way, by 24 a player is usually in his man body

I think at points in RNH's career he's already been a very Stepan-esque player so I don't see that as a vast improvement, more just a return to his peak, I agree that he could get there. I don't see him taking that next step to be a prime-Bergeron type of player though

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

most of the research that I've seen suggests that by 23/24 players are at/near their peak, staying at about that level until 28/29 before starting to significantly regress. All based on averages and there are certainly those who buck the trend

by 24 though, not many players are gaining significant weight or muscle as professional athletes, I guess there are those who buck that trend as well but that would be an extreme outlier unless he significantly changed what he was doing/eating/taking. I'd venture a guess that a #1OA draft pick whose known that he needed to gain weight since being drafted 7 years ago would have tried all the things that he's allowed to do within the rules. Wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 200 in his late 20's/30's, but that's not likely to be good weight either and marginally more than he weighs now. At 20-22 I would agree that lots of guys bulk up in a good way, by 24 a player is usually in his man body

I think at points in RNH's career he's already been a very Stepan-esque player so I don't see that as a vast improvement, more just a return to his peak, I agree that he could get there. I don't see him taking that next step to be a prime-Bergeron type of player though

Fair enough but I don't think that anyone does tbh.

as far as the weight training points. I think RNH has been using his brother as his personal trainer. I really hope he let him go and went to a professional. I don't understand why a guy like him doesn't do the Gary Roberts training every summer. Instead using a family member is very unprofessional.

Still though. Ill be happy as hell if he is a 55 point 2 way center. Not 1st overall territory but still very useful.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Nugent-Hopkins, all day, every day, every situation.

 

[ManofSteel55]

RNH at 6 million for 4 more years is ugly. If he's better it's marginally and that contract more than wipes out a minuscule difference in ability.

That's the going rate for a good 2nd line center. There's nothing wrong with his cap hit. Near the upper end of the scale, sure, but it's still well within the 2C salary range. The difference offensively (so far) might be marginal, but the difference in defensive ability is fairly large.