Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[S E P H]

Only Mckeens were dumb enough to have Laine over him in their rankings.

That was the old McKeen's, the new one with Brock is great!

Also, Avs had Laine over Matthews for first overall on their lists.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Convenient how your list stops right when it's four non-Canadians from Matthews through to Hughes...

I'm using the five most recent years and then what we're told is decided on Jan 23 for the 2025 draft.

Yes, in the past non-Canadians have went 1OA more often. Currently, Bob McKenzie has announced 20 Canadians to the first round and 22 from the CHL. This was after 18 Canadians in the first round last year.

So points are the only thing that determines the order of who should go where? That makes lot of sense with all your opinions. There's only been 4 PPG OHL seasons in the last decade, and Schaefer is better than the other 4 defensively, but that doesn't matter to you.

When have I ever said only PPG should determine who should go where?

The idea that Schaefer is like miles better defensively than the others isn't one I agree with. I think Hagens, Misa, Martone are at least okay defensive players, if not good in one or two cases. Martone has an agitation, chippiness that I don't think the others have. Misa and Hagens probably have similar skating to Schaefer, even if I'd give Schaefer a slight edge. Hagens is the most cerebral, and I think maybe Martone isn't the most cerebral. Hagens is a little undersized. Martone is pretty big. Misa is right around NHL average height. Schaefer is just above NHL average height. Hagens is probably the most skilled and best playmaker. Misa isn't far behind him. I think Martone and Schaefer fare at a better than average level in that area, but not as well.

You could keep going. There are different areas for and against each player. I am not sure how anyone has arrived at Schaefer is a unanimous 1OA.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

2020: Canadian
2021: Canadian
2022: Slovakian (Canadian massively hyped for years at 1OA and only at the very end a brave team dissented)
2023: Canadian
2024: Canadian
2025: Canadian (it's already fixed, and if someone else goes 1OA it'll be like 2022).

Do you not see a pattern? Maybe other people aren't the ones with the memory of a goldfish.

It's also worth pointing out that in each of these drafts (let's leave 2024 out of it because there's only 1 guy who is in the NHL, so others haven't gotten a chance to prove themselves), it's not exactly clear-cut that the Canadian 1OA is the best player from the draft. In some of them, it's clear they aren't.

Obviously there's a pattern here of who goes first that doesn't align with who the best player ends up being. Maybe teams should broaden their horizons a little bit, and start considering players from other nations at 1OA.

What's funny about this is that just earlier you claimed that as an "objective observer" you had a Canadian ranked first in 2020 thru 2024, yet somehow that means there's some grand conspiracy to pick Canadians first.

 

[thefutures]

Lol canadian conspiracy. There are very real criticisms of things related to hockey and Canada. Manufacturing 1st overalls is not one of them.

 

[Rare Jewel]

If a player is talented, they will overcome everything. A similar argument is made comparing bad development teams versus good development teams. If a player has the talent to be an NHL player, he will overcome all the awful attributes that a bad development teams display.

No one would say Hagens isn't a talent, I think he's a very good bet to be a #2c in the league, I do have slight Alex Turcotte vibes from him, but I hope that isn't the case.

But what I feel the folks from your side of the argument aren't really giving Schaefer his due and giving him the benefit of the "talent will win out" idea, instead thinking it's some kind made up stance by the Canadian hockey mafia, which is nonsense.

You've got a kid who was the best Dman on Canada's WJC team in his draft year, who's also scoring over a PPG for Erie and on top of that if he was a week younger he wouldn't be eligible for this draft.

It all adds up, when trying to decide between the two.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Also, Avs had Laine over Matthews for first overall on their lists.

Well, we can all make mistakes...

Did they have Makar #1 in 2017?

 

[newfy]

lol what? The United States has won 3 out of the last 5 world junior championships.

Sure, but probably not if Canada is rolling Celebrini and Bedard down the middle. ALl this dick waving about Canada vs USA is dumb in this thread to begin with. Schaefer is a worthy first overall type and anyone saying its a conspiracy for Canada is out of their minds lol

 

[S E P H]

No one would say Hagens isn't a talent, I think he's a very good bet to be a #2c in the league, I do have slight Alex Turcotte vibes from him, but I hope that isn't the case.

But what I feel the folks from your side of the argument aren't really giving Schaefer his due and giving him the benefit of the "talent will win out" idea, instead thinking it's some kind made up stance by the Canadian hockey mafia, which is nonsense.

You've got a kid who was the best Dman on Canada's WJC team in his draft year, who's also scoring over a PPG for Erie and on top of that if he was a week younger he wouldn't be eligible for this draft.

It all adds up, when trying to decide between the two.

I 100% believe Schaefer is top 3 talent, but I just wouldn't draft somebody who can eat minutes as a 1st overall defenceman. That's honestly the best attribute I have read on countless number of sites when they explain his game. That is simply not good enough. In terms of watching him, I don't see the high-level IQ or offensive skills to be a difference-maker that you'd want for a 1st overall pick. Again, that's my two cents and if you disagree, totally fine.

For the record, I do think Hagens has the best chance to hit the highs of his ceiling from what I have seen, but your worries about Turcotte 2.0 are very valid, he does share many similarities to when I saw Alex's pre-draft. Nonetheless, I would be surprised if he falls that much, I still see him being an average to below-average 1st line centre and I think that's where our disagreement falls. I see somebody who resembles Crosby's game and is a workhorse at both ends of the ice. Crosby didn't have any outstanding qualities as a junior player, he was just great at everything (insane IQ though) in a non-flashy sort of way and Hagens plays a similar style if you'd ask me, where he uses a lot of IQ to know where to go in all three zones. If that's the case and a team dislikes Hagens, then they should draft Misa IMHO. Even though he's on the smaller side, he to me is the most talented player in this draft even if might play a bit too much of a junior style of game at times. His talent is worth a top 3 pick alone if you'd ask me.

Well, we can all make mistakes...

Did they have Makar #1 in 2017?

Pretty sure they did, but all the Avs fans ain't surprised considering the team is on their third head scout in the last 5-7 years.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The biggest concern with drafting a Defensemen first overall is that DMan is notoriously hard to project and their development curve is a lot longer than Forwards. Projecting how well a player will defend moving up such a high level is going to be trickier than projecting out offense.

A fairly expansive (somewhat arbitrary?) list of best defensemen since the 90s is something like

Bourque (9th overall), Murphy (4th overall), Coffey (6th overall), MacInnis (15th overall), Chelios (2nd round), Blake (4th round), Stevens (5th overall), Leetch (9th overall), Lidstrom (3rd round), Niedermayer (3rd overall), Gonchar (14th overall), Pronger (2nd overall), Chara (3rd round), Boyle (undrafted), Keith (2nd round), Giordano (undrafted), Suter (7th overall), Burns (20th overall), Weber (2nd round), Subban (2nd round), Letang (3rd round), Doughty (2nd overall), Pietrangelo (4th overall), Karlsson (15th overall), Carlson (27th overall), Josi (2nd round), Hedman (2nd overall), Fox (3rd round), Heiskanen (3rd overall), Makar (4th overall), Q. Hughes (7th overall)

Not a first overall amongst them. Three 2nd overalls, two 3rd overalls, three 4th overalls and one 5th overall however, and then 22 that were drafted after that.

A Defenseman really needs to be like Top 10 in the league caliber to be a first overall if the draft is not brutally bad, as it can descend pretty rapidly into "just another guy" from there. Oh sure, there are definitely non-Top 10 "Number 1 minute eaters" or 1B types and they have their roles and place for sure, but they aren't necessarily the gamebreakers the way you can really go down the forward ranks and still get very high levels of impact. Often why DMen first tend to go in cases where there is not considered a really great forward.

The last time a Defenseman went first overall and *should* have (with hindsight) gone first overall is Denis Potvin. The back to back years of Doughty/Hedman gave 2nd overalls that could make good cases for *should* have been first, and Pronger is of course the 2nd who definitely should have. Lower than that, and we're starting to get a bit removed from actually being a first overall candidate at all, meaning there was either something "missed" or development curve was just unexpected on the high end.

It's a bit interesting that nowhere do they even address skepticism around Defenseman as a first overall, and why in this case it'd be overcome, given the underwhelming stream of recent "best defensive prospect since [x]" underwhelming first overalls in the current generation. Certainly if like a Goaltender was being discussed, it'd be a huge topic of conversation.

 

[thrillhous]

What's funny about this is that just earlier you claimed that as an "objective observer" you had a Canadian ranked first in 2020 thru 2024, yet somehow that means there's some grand conspiracy to pick Canadians first.

Honestly you can’t make this stuff up, it’s sad at this point.

 

[Brodeur]

Here's the list of dmen drafted 1st overall to add to the cautionary tale.

View attachment 965521

Context is important though, you seem to implying that in every case those teams passed up on a HOF forward or something (unless you're cherry picking names who weren't ranked that high). In particular the 90s ones where the D went first because there wasn't a standout forward prospect not necessarily because they were expected to be a perennial Norris candidate.

1992: Hamrlik - Quietly good career just bounced around a lot due to circumstances beyond his control. THN had Todd Warriner ranked #1. Phil Esposito said in his autobiography that he personally preferred Alexei Yashin to Hamrlik, but that he deferred to his scouts. Yashin had better peak seasons but it's arguable who had the better career.

1994: Jovanovski - Radek Bonk was the consensus top forward but his price tag (rookie salary cap wasn't introduced until the 1995 CBA) scared off Florida/Anaheim. Another debate about who had the better career between the two but I feel like Jovo's peak was higher. Bonk's offense didn't materialize as expected but he had a respectable career.

1995: Top ranked forwards were Daymond Langkow and Chad Kilger. It's an unfortunate what if regarding how Berard's career would have gone without the eye injury. Langkow was a bit of a late bloomer.

1996: Nobody was projecting Chris Phillips to be an All-Star. The draft class was just that bad. Top ranked forwards by THN were Alexandre Volchkov, Josh Holden, Boyd Devereaux, and J.P. Dumont.

--------

It was before my time, so I don't have any memory of Gord Kluzak aside from reading knee injuries derailed his career. But your implication that they should have taken a forward is interesting since the two HOFs taken in the top 10 from that draft were defensemen (Stevens/Housley).

I think some of those guys listed were also put in bad situations on (recent) expansion teams. The 90's era expansion teams were hit and miss with their initial picks: Pat Falloon (San Jose), Roman Hamrlik (Tampa), Alexei Yashin (Ottawa), Paul Kariya (Anaheim), Rob Niedermayer (Florida), David Legwand (Nashville), Patrik Stefan (Atlanta), Marian Gaborik (Minnesota), and Rostislav Klesla (Columbus).

 

[ValeriKamensky]

One scout went so far as to say a lot of the players who will be drafted in the bottom half of the first round would in prior years be better suited to being second-round picks.

Well, as I’ve said before, Briere should trade Avs and Oilers picks as soon as possible. But Flyers fans are ready to kill for this

 

[Rare Jewel]

I 100% believe Schaefer is top 3 talent, but I just wouldn't draft somebody who can eat minutes as a 1st overall defenceman. That's honestly the best attribute I have read on countless number of sites when they explain his game. That is simply not good enough. In terms of watching him, I don't see the high-level IQ or offensive skills to be a difference-maker that you'd want for a 1st overall pick. Again, that's my two cents and if you disagree, totally fine.

I definitely see durability being a concern with Schaefer, but in terms of minute munching, I think he'll be more than able to do it.

On his durability: If he does go first, I think he'll be first 1st overall in very long time where sending him back to Erie wouldn't be the worst option at all due to the time he's missed.

The biggest concern with drafting a Defensemen first overall is that DMan is notoriously hard to project and their development curve is a lot longer than Forwards. Projecting how well a player will defend moving up such a high level is going to be trickier than projecting out offense.

A fairly expansive (somewhat arbitrary?) list of best defensemen since the 90s is something like

Bourque (9th overall), Murphy (4th overall), Coffey (6th overall), MacInnis (15th overall), Chelios (2nd round), Blake (4th round), Stevens (5th overall), Leetch (9th overall), Lidstrom (3rd round), Niedermayer (3rd overall), Gonchar (14th overall), Pronger (2nd overall), Chara (3rd round), Boyle (undrafted), Keith (2nd round), Giordano (undrafted), Suter (7th overall), Burns (20th overall), Weber (2nd round), Subban (2nd round), Letang (3rd round), Doughty (2nd overall), Pietrangelo (4th overall), Karlsson (15th overall), Carlson (27th overall), Josi (2nd round), Hedman (2nd overall), Fox (3rd round), Heiskanen (3rd overall), Makar (4th overall), Q. Hughes (7th overall)

Not a first overall amongst them. Three 2nd overalls, two 3rd overalls, three 4th overalls and one 5th overall however, and then 22 that were drafted after that.

A Defenseman really needs to be like Top 10 in the league caliber to be a first overall if the draft is not brutally bad, as it can descend pretty rapidly into "just another guy" from there. Oh sure, there are definitely non-Top 10 "Number 1 minute eaters" or 1B types and they have their roles and place for sure, but they aren't necessarily the gamebreakers the way you can really go down the forward ranks and still get very high levels of impact. Often why DMen first tend to go in cases where there is not considered a really great forward.

The last time a Defenseman went first overall and *should* have (with hindsight) gone first overall is Denis Potvin. The back to back years of Doughty/Hedman gave 2nd overalls that could make good cases for *should* have been first, and Pronger is of course the 2nd who definitely should have. Lower than that, and we're starting to get a bit removed from actually being a first overall candidate at all, meaning there was either something "missed" or development curve was just unexpected on the high end.

It's a bit interesting that nowhere do they even address skepticism around Defenseman as a first overall, and why in this case it'd be overcome, given the underwhelming stream of recent "best defensive prospect since [x]" underwhelming first overalls in the current generation. Certainly if like a Goaltender was being discussed, it'd be a huge topic of conversation.

It's possible that it just isn't as "sexy" of a pick to pick a D man, when there's usually some forward who's shot the lights out to be picked as well?

 

[Wieters]

It’s astounding how awful the US remains at producing top talent. You’ve had the largest pool of youth players for years now, on the strength of practically exclusive investment by an NHL dominated by American owners to the detriment of growing the game in Europe and elsewhere, and we’re still in a position where you can’t say with certainty that you will contribute 15% of the draft’s first round. With how things stand projected today, it looks like you’re in the middle of what is likely to be at least a decade-long stretch without contributing a first overall pick, either. It’s incredible that your best-on-best national team isn’t even the odds-on favourite going into a tournament after Canada has undergone a decade of disastrous draft classes by our standards.

In light of this, I suppose it’s not surprising that a number of Americans here might feel a need to conjure up and delude themselves with conspiracy theories (which frankly seems to be becoming a bit of a national identity to those of us on the outside looking in) and crow about junior tournaments that your players prepare for together for years only to inconsistently succeed in eking by “B” teams thrown together days in advance. To those few: pull yourself together.

You probably don’t even believe this sad intellectualization yourself and are just trying to speak it into existence to soothe your fragile sense of identity. Hockey is just another sport in America. Literally none of the best American athletes ever entertain the idea of putting on a pair of skates. The US does not apply itself in hockey to remotely the same degree that Canada does.

 

[Peasy]

This temper tantrum because scouts ranked Schaefer first is bizarre. Go find their email address and yell at them, dude.

He's been doing it ever since hockey prospect ranked him first at the end of November. Went on a massive tirade in that thread. And since then, practically every other public list has had Schaefer number 1. And he's STILL going on about it. Like dude who cares. You don't agree with it, just move on. He's just going to do this in every thread the entire year

 

[Kingpin794]

I wonder if Pavel can name who was coaching Schaefer in his rookie year in the OHL and if he could tell us a little about him?

Schaefer is a guy that will have a C on his chest. Be out there for 20-25 mins a night for a decade. Amazing skating and amazing puck mover. In the modern game, a defensively sound guy, with good size, who can get the puck out and going in transition is vital. You have to have one. And there really isn't another one in this class on the same tier as Schaefer so I'm not surprised a lot of scouts have him at 1.

I haven't seen enough of Hagens to have any strong opinion on but he seemed to handle his own well at the WJC. If he can skate as well as people say, being 5' 11" isn't going to be any kind of problem.

Misa suffers from the same thing every exceptional status player has gone through. Scouting fatigue. Guys have been watching him so often and for so long that he gets fractional points deducted at times or weird talking points get added (such as is he a wing or center. He's a center. Just watch him play). He's healthy this year and it shows. Has just about every tool in the tool box outside of physicality and that's not really his game. He's not as flashy but I'd bet he's going to be a 1C for someone. (Obviously I am biased here on Misa).

Martone I think has the longest odds of the big 4 of going 1st. Wingers just have a harder time going first because NHL GM's are all about C and D. Idk. He gives me Mantha vibes. I don't know if he ever reaches his ceiling. Don't think he puts enough of the power in power forward. Skating isn't on par with the other 3 listed above. Just some small things that might trip him up.

 

[gothegr8]

You don't have to watch a lot of Schaefer to realise how amazing he is and how amazing he will be once he gets to the pros. I'm speechless about some of the stuff i've read about him on this thread. Can't really understand how a player like him can have some sort of haters when he's probably the easiest prospect to like this year.

 

[Corso]

Schaefer is more than a worthy first over-all pick. We can debate whether or not he should be the consensus number 1 pick, whether the vast majority of the scouting community believes he is the absolute 1OA and whether or not another pick (Hagens) has the higher upside or better long-term potential.

We should not be arguing about the (paranoid) musings by a widely regarded jingoistic poster (and he's not the only one nor is this exclusive to American posters) but rather discussing the merits of Bob's list.

For my part, I feel that the most overrated prospect right now is Porter Martone. His lack of pace is more than a bit concerning and I honestly don't see him as a top five pick, maybe not even in the top 10.

 

[Forge]

When was the last time the top ranked guy flipped in season? Was it Nico / Nolan Patrick?

 

[Peasy]

When was the last time the top ranked guy flipped in season? Was it Nico / Nolan Patrick?

Shane Wright?

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Oh yeah? I had 5 Canadians ranked first overall in the last five drafts. If anything, that should make me biased towards Canadian players. I had a Canadian ranked over an American in 2022 when many debated which would be drafted first (neither ended up being the answer).

The data demonstrates I am objective and prefer the best players. Sorry if you don't like that. Not all of us are impartial. Some of you aren't.

Who said anything about Nationalism? You have your players, and are 110% biased towards them.
But you feeling like an American deserves #1 just cause Canada has had too many, shows a petty bias.
Thinking a whole country is secretly propping a prospect shows something else.