That was the old McKeen's, the new one with Brock is great!
Also, Avs had Laine over Matthews for first overall on their lists.
Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1
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Also, Avs had Laine over Matthews for first overall on their lists.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
I'm using the five most recent years and then what we're told is decided on Jan 23 for the 2025 draft.
Yes, in the past non-Canadians have went 1OA more often. Currently, Bob McKenzie has announced 20 Canadians to the first round and 22 from the CHL. This was after 18 Canadians in the first round last year.
When have I ever said only PPG should determine who should go where?
The idea that Schaefer is like miles better defensively than the others isn't one I agree with. I think Hagens, Misa, Martone are at least okay defensive players, if not good in one or two cases. Martone has an agitation, chippiness that I don't think the others have. Misa and Hagens probably have similar skating to Schaefer, even if I'd give Schaefer a slight edge. Hagens is the most cerebral, and I think maybe Martone isn't the most cerebral. Hagens is a little undersized. Martone is pretty big. Misa is right around NHL average height. Schaefer is just above NHL average height. Hagens is probably the most skilled and best playmaker. Misa isn't far behind him. I think Martone and Schaefer fare at a better than average level in that area, but not as well.
You could keep going. There are different areas for and against each player. I am not sure how anyone has arrived at Schaefer is a unanimous 1OA.
- Apr 27, 2005
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What's funny about this is that just earlier you claimed that as an "objective observer" you had a Canadian ranked first in 2020 thru 2024, yet somehow that means there's some grand conspiracy to pick Canadians first.
Lol canadian conspiracy. There are very real criticisms of things related to hockey and Canada. Manufacturing 1st overalls is not one of them.
Rare Jewel
Patience
No one would say Hagens isn't a talent, I think he's a very good bet to be a #2c in the league, I do have slight Alex Turcotte vibes from him, but I hope that isn't the case.
But what I feel the folks from your side of the argument aren't really giving Schaefer his due and giving him the benefit of the "talent will win out" idea, instead thinking it's some kind made up stance by the Canadian hockey mafia, which is nonsense.
You've got a kid who was the best Dman on Canada's WJC team in his draft year, who's also scoring over a PPG for Erie and on top of that if he was a week younger he wouldn't be eligible for this draft.
It all adds up, when trying to decide between the two.
Rare Jewel
Patience
newfy
Registered User
- Jul 28, 2010
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Sure, but probably not if Canada is rolling Celebrini and Bedard down the middle. ALl this dick waving about Canada vs USA is dumb in this thread to begin with. Schaefer is a worthy first overall type and anyone saying its a conspiracy for Canada is out of their minds lol
I 100% believe Schaefer is top 3 talent, but I just wouldn't draft somebody who can eat minutes as a 1st overall defenceman. That's honestly the best attribute I have read on countless number of sites when they explain his game. That is simply not good enough. In terms of watching him, I don't see the high-level IQ or offensive skills to be a difference-maker that you'd want for a 1st overall pick. Again, that's my two cents and if you disagree, totally fine.
For the record, I do think Hagens has the best chance to hit the highs of his ceiling from what I have seen, but your worries about Turcotte 2.0 are very valid, he does share many similarities to when I saw Alex's pre-draft. Nonetheless, I would be surprised if he falls that much, I still see him being an average to below-average 1st line centre and I think that's where our disagreement falls. I see somebody who resembles Crosby's game and is a workhorse at both ends of the ice. Crosby didn't have any outstanding qualities as a junior player, he was just great at everything (insane IQ though) in a non-flashy sort of way and Hagens plays a similar style if you'd ask me, where he uses a lot of IQ to know where to go in all three zones. If that's the case and a team dislikes Hagens, then they should draft Misa IMHO. Even though he's on the smaller side, he to me is the most talented player in this draft even if might play a bit too much of a junior style of game at times. His talent is worth a top 3 pick alone if you'd ask me.
Pretty sure they did, but all the Avs fans ain't surprised considering the team is on their third head scout in the last 5-7 years.
WarriorofTime
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- Jul 3, 2010
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The biggest concern with drafting a Defensemen first overall is that DMan is notoriously hard to project and their development curve is a lot longer than Forwards. Projecting how well a player will defend moving up such a high level is going to be trickier than projecting out offense.
A fairly expansive (somewhat arbitrary?) list of best defensemen since the 90s is something like
Bourque (9th overall), Murphy (4th overall), Coffey (6th overall), MacInnis (15th overall), Chelios (2nd round), Blake (4th round), Stevens (5th overall), Leetch (9th overall), Lidstrom (3rd round), Niedermayer (3rd overall), Gonchar (14th overall), Pronger (2nd overall), Chara (3rd round), Boyle (undrafted), Keith (2nd round), Giordano (undrafted), Suter (7th overall), Burns (20th overall), Weber (2nd round), Subban (2nd round), Letang (3rd round), Doughty (2nd overall), Pietrangelo (4th overall), Karlsson (15th overall), Carlson (27th overall), Josi (2nd round), Hedman (2nd overall), Fox (3rd round), Heiskanen (3rd overall), Makar (4th overall), Q. Hughes (7th overall)
Not a first overall amongst them. Three 2nd overalls, two 3rd overalls, three 4th overalls and one 5th overall however, and then 22 that were drafted after that.
A Defenseman really needs to be like Top 10 in the league caliber to be a first overall if the draft is not brutally bad, as it can descend pretty rapidly into "just another guy" from there. Oh sure, there are definitely non-Top 10 "Number 1 minute eaters" or 1B types and they have their roles and place for sure, but they aren't necessarily the gamebreakers the way you can really go down the forward ranks and still get very high levels of impact. Often why DMen first tend to go in cases where there is not considered a really great forward.
The last time a Defenseman went first overall and *should* have (with hindsight) gone first overall is Denis Potvin. The back to back years of Doughty/Hedman gave 2nd overalls that could make good cases for *should* have been first, and Pronger is of course the 2nd who definitely should have. Lower than that, and we're starting to get a bit removed from actually being a first overall candidate at all, meaning there was either something "missed" or development curve was just unexpected on the high end.
It's a bit interesting that nowhere do they even address skepticism around Defenseman as a first overall, and why in this case it'd be overcome, given the underwhelming stream of recent "best defensive prospect since [x]" underwhelming first overalls in the current generation. Certainly if like a Goaltender was being discussed, it'd be a huge topic of conversation.
A fairly expansive (somewhat arbitrary?) list of best defensemen since the 90s is something like
Bourque (9th overall), Murphy (4th overall), Coffey (6th overall), MacInnis (15th overall), Chelios (2nd round), Blake (4th round), Stevens (5th overall), Leetch (9th overall), Lidstrom (3rd round), Niedermayer (3rd overall), Gonchar (14th overall), Pronger (2nd overall), Chara (3rd round), Boyle (undrafted), Keith (2nd round), Giordano (undrafted), Suter (7th overall), Burns (20th overall), Weber (2nd round), Subban (2nd round), Letang (3rd round), Doughty (2nd overall), Pietrangelo (4th overall), Karlsson (15th overall), Carlson (27th overall), Josi (2nd round), Hedman (2nd overall), Fox (3rd round), Heiskanen (3rd overall), Makar (4th overall), Q. Hughes (7th overall)
Not a first overall amongst them. Three 2nd overalls, two 3rd overalls, three 4th overalls and one 5th overall however, and then 22 that were drafted after that.
A Defenseman really needs to be like Top 10 in the league caliber to be a first overall if the draft is not brutally bad, as it can descend pretty rapidly into "just another guy" from there. Oh sure, there are definitely non-Top 10 "Number 1 minute eaters" or 1B types and they have their roles and place for sure, but they aren't necessarily the gamebreakers the way you can really go down the forward ranks and still get very high levels of impact. Often why DMen first tend to go in cases where there is not considered a really great forward.
The last time a Defenseman went first overall and *should* have (with hindsight) gone first overall is Denis Potvin. The back to back years of Doughty/Hedman gave 2nd overalls that could make good cases for *should* have been first, and Pronger is of course the 2nd who definitely should have. Lower than that, and we're starting to get a bit removed from actually being a first overall candidate at all, meaning there was either something "missed" or development curve was just unexpected on the high end.
It's a bit interesting that nowhere do they even address skepticism around Defenseman as a first overall, and why in this case it'd be overcome, given the underwhelming stream of recent "best defensive prospect since [x]" underwhelming first overalls in the current generation. Certainly if like a Goaltender was being discussed, it'd be a huge topic of conversation.
thrillhous
Registered User
- Jan 5, 2006
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Honestly you can’t make this stuff up, it’s sad at this point.
Context is important though, you seem to implying that in every case those teams passed up on a HOF forward or something (unless you're cherry picking names who weren't ranked that high). In particular the 90s ones where the D went first because there wasn't a standout forward prospect not necessarily because they were expected to be a perennial Norris candidate.
1992: Hamrlik - Quietly good career just bounced around a lot due to circumstances beyond his control. THN had Todd Warriner ranked #1. Phil Esposito said in his autobiography that he personally preferred Alexei Yashin to Hamrlik, but that he deferred to his scouts. Yashin had better peak seasons but it's arguable who had the better career.
1994: Jovanovski - Radek Bonk was the consensus top forward but his price tag (rookie salary cap wasn't introduced until the 1995 CBA) scared off Florida/Anaheim. Another debate about who had the better career between the two but I feel like Jovo's peak was higher. Bonk's offense didn't materialize as expected but he had a respectable career.
1995: Top ranked forwards were Daymond Langkow and Chad Kilger. It's an unfortunate what if regarding how Berard's career would have gone without the eye injury. Langkow was a bit of a late bloomer.
1996: Nobody was projecting Chris Phillips to be an All-Star. The draft class was just that bad. Top ranked forwards by THN were Alexandre Volchkov, Josh Holden, Boyd Devereaux, and J.P. Dumont.
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It was before my time, so I don't have any memory of Gord Kluzak aside from reading knee injuries derailed his career. But your implication that they should have taken a forward is interesting since the two HOFs taken in the top 10 from that draft were defensemen (Stevens/Housley).
I think some of those guys listed were also put in bad situations on (recent) expansion teams. The 90's era expansion teams were hit and miss with their initial picks: Pat Falloon (San Jose), Roman Hamrlik (Tampa), Alexei Yashin (Ottawa), Paul Kariya (Anaheim), Rob Niedermayer (Florida), David Legwand (Nashville), Patrik Stefan (Atlanta), Marian Gaborik (Minnesota), and Rostislav Klesla (Columbus).
ValeriKamensky
Registered User
- May 8, 2013
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Well, as I’ve said before, Briere should trade Avs and Oilers picks as soon as possible. But Flyers fans are ready to kill for this
Rare Jewel
Patience
I definitely see durability being a concern with Schaefer, but in terms of minute munching, I think he'll be more than able to do it.
On his durability: If he does go first, I think he'll be first 1st overall in very long time where sending him back to Erie wouldn't be the worst option at all due to the time he's missed.
It's possible that it just isn't as "sexy" of a pick to pick a D man, when there's usually some forward who's shot the lights out to be picked as well?
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You probably don’t even believe this sad intellectualization yourself and are just trying to speak it into existence to soothe your fragile sense of identity. Hockey is just another sport in America. Literally none of the best American athletes ever entertain the idea of putting on a pair of skates. The US does not apply itself in hockey to remotely the same degree that Canada does.
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Peasy
Registered User
He's been doing it ever since hockey prospect ranked him first at the end of November. Went on a massive tirade in that thread. And since then, practically every other public list has had Schaefer number 1. And he's STILL going on about it. Like dude who cares. You don't agree with it, just move on. He's just going to do this in every thread the entire year
