Lot of money for a 3C.... especially a defensive specialist
I'd try to lock him up for 8 years at 5 mill
Then He is a 29 year old UFA and can sign another big buck deal
I would love the Canucks to do an 8 year deal with him.
Buying out his entire 20's would be ideal, which includes 4 years of UFA.
His production to date, isn't up to par with the forwards who landed $6 million post ELC, however, I would guess that advanced stats would show that his offensive production would be similar given how limited his offensive zone starts are compared to that of Barkov, Monahan, McKinnon, etc. Plus, his line mates have been Baertschi, Burrows, Dorsett this season. Not exactly matching a Duchene, Landeskog, Johnny Hockey, Bennett, Jagr, Hubedeau (only guessing who the others actually play with).
You pay a bit more to get those extra UFA years. You take the hit in the next couple of years, but hope that the average cap hit works out in your favour in years 5-8.
If we are talking an 8 year deal, something in the $5.25 - $5.75 per season seems fair.
I would guess the Horvat camp would prefer to play out the season and hope he can hit the 50 point range. He put up 40 last season.