Lehkonen and Manson were not the same thing. Lehkonen was an RFA, he was staying no matter what. Manson was a pure rental at the time, he just happened to re-sign.Avs management never spent premium assets for strictly rentals, they tend to pay good when there's a good chance they'll keep the player, Lehkonen and Manson as exemples.
It's the reason of my offer.
Plus, with Girard (I think his value isn't that high actually) at 5 mil and Newhook next contract (around 2 - 2,5 mil I assume), Horvat contract would be around the same amount.
But I get it, my proposal doesn't do it, like 99,99999% of proposals here on HFboard
Anyway it was just for fun, we're not talking important matters here...
Proposal: Bo Horvat (pre-signed at around 8 mil) for Girard + Newhook + 1st + conditional 3rd
- Thread starter samsagat
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Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Horvat's next contract is the cost of doing business in a growing cap to come. We have to remember that this is not about what today's cap and players AAV is, it's about what it will be over that 7 or 8 year span.
Covid delayed player salary growth but you still seen contracts like Jones and Nurse awarded. Why? Cause the Agent said if you want to purchase UFA years that extend past the NHLPA outstanding balance pay of date, you will have to pay for what the cap will be at that point.
Horvat from age 28-34/35 at $8M is not anywhere more risk than Landeskog from age 29-36 at $7M. Ideally, you want them for less AAV but it's not possible. You had to pay Landeskog or he walked and someone else signs him. Letting go Kadri was smart because that is a age 32-38 span and he wanted to paid as a 80-100 pts guy when he is really a 60-80 pts guy which stands to decline in the 35+ years.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Like Landeskog? Personally, I think age 35+ is the risky area. 30-35 is tricky but if the player has skating, they will age better than others who have average skating or worse in those years.
Yep, just like Landeskog. Though Landy is at least only at $7M, but his will be very ugly soon enough as well.
Breakers
Make Mirrored Visors Legal Again
No interest in girard
he came back to reality after being incredibly overrated in the covid divisions with numbers against a tiny sample of the league.
he came back to reality after being incredibly overrated in the covid divisions with numbers against a tiny sample of the league.
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bert
Registered User
Empoleon8771
Registered User
And he's not an $8 million a year player.
The contract is going to age terribly because he's not even worth that kind of money right now, let alone for the next 8 years.
bert
Registered User
50 goal 85 point pace players that play all situations center ice and captain of their team are easily worth 8 million. Thats what he is currently doing. You probably thought Thompsons contract was bad too.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I think you will be fine. That $7M rate will be like a $5M rate in the back half of that term (higher cap). I think some fans are dwelling on 30-35 years too much. Kadri's contract from 32-38 is the risky one. Getting UFA's at age 27 or 28 for 7 or 8 years is still prime years for many players. Just make sure you spend cap on players that can actually skate. The ones who decline sharply in the 30+ years are the ones who don't skate well
If anything the complete opposite is true.
Players who rely on skating are the ones who suffer the most as they age.
bert
Registered User
You said Thompsons contract was terrible too. And Norris, Stutzle etc. Tough track record.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Modest decline is not the same as aging poorly. Words of choice is important. Maybe in the last year he is 90% of who he is today but you make it sound like he will be 50% or worse from what you see today vs age 35. Crosby is still producing to pt/game level at age 35 today.
I dont think we will be fine at all.
There's overwhelming evidence that players primes are far younger then the general public opinion. Guys typically peak by 23/24, then spend 2-3 years in that peak level. By 27/28 they're exiting those prime years and by the time they turn over to 30 its a pretty stark and continuous decline.
The Avs have ~2-3 more years before the core guys start to cross that age. Why its so important for them to push all in this year especially while Mack is on the last year of his $6.3M deal.
They already won a cup so no matter what, its been a success with this core and anything else is just icing on the cake. But they've only got 2-3 more years left before this team will regress as the core ages out of those prime years.
samsagat
Registered User
- Jun 20, 2013
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Or have poor hockey IQ.
When a player's core skills decline a bit, intelligence doesn't.
Intelligence = better adaptative skills
High hockey IQ players are the ones that take their career up to near 40 yo, I noticed.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Did I say they rely on skating alone? NO. We are talking about top of the line-up players who have skill and skating. Maybe your statement applies to bottom 6 talent who have limited skill.
Players with skill don't loose their skating that fast. 35+ is not the new 30+. It's gotten carried out of control in many cases.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Yes, Horvat is a 50 goal and 85 point player with his career high of 31 goals and 61 points.
Not even remotely close to the same thing...
Also, prove it. I haven't made one single comment about Norris or Stutzle's contracts.
I said it was risky to sign Thompson to such big money after 1 good year. Obviously its paid off.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I don't think you are comprehending the decline narrative that well. Yes there is some but you think the players is going to be 50% effective at age 35 vs who they are today. In some cases yes but not all.
28-35 is nowhere near the same as 32-38. Not even close. Top line talent or elite decline at less sharper rates than bottom 6 guys. You're grouping everyone which is flawed.
Tavares was signed from age 28-34 and is still a pt/game player this season at age 32. Crosby has not slowed down that much and he is 35. You can raise me a Subban as your proof and I'll raise you two others each time. With Subban, your skating narrative applies but the part you overlooked is not all guys with good skating loose it that quickly like Subban did. Understand?
Don't group top level talent with mid or bottom level talent with your "overwhelming evidence" narrative.
Yep, this is the real truth.
Although the reality is very, very few players actually play beyond 35. Most of the time its a special player, or someone who had a late start in the NHL and dont have as much wear and tear.
For the large majority of players, they're out of the league well before 35 and even the stars, are on decline by the time they're 30.
Not sure who you are arguing with because not once did I say Kadri is better than Horvat moving forward.
The simple fact is Kadri was the perfect foil to MacKinnon and fit the Avs system like a glove. That’s not an opinion. He flourished and when MacK was out he was exactly the type of offensive fulcrum that ensured the team remained dangerous. Different style of player…more creative, more skilled on the puck in the Avs up-tempo system.
If the Avs had an $8-9 million to play with they would have just resigned Kadri. This was a move towards flexibility and it was made with the acknowledgement that there would need to be some patience. Horvat will be 28 next summer. He will get 7-8 years. That takes him to 35.
As I said the first time: if the Avs wanted to accommodate an elite 2C into their mid-30’s they had the perfect candidate who had already proven to be the ideal fit. And they said…”too long of a deal, too little flexibility moving forward”. I don’t think that calculus had changed. Horvat would be a GREAT rental for the Avs but they aren’t paying the almost always HFB hypothetical “comes with a long term extension in place” premium for a guy they likely would not be interested in signing to the kind of deal he can get on the market. Horvat can get #1, franchise center money on a max deal from somebody. It won’t be the Avs.
samsagat
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- Jun 20, 2013
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Ok.
But what he bring to the table aren't just points.
You don't evaluate a players value just by points.
Horvat is a complete centrer who produce a fair amount of points and it's the complete package he brings that makes his (high) value.
NHL is not a hockey pool...
