Blues Trade Proposals 2021-2022 Part 3

[Bye Bye Blueston]

One of the big differences with the Miller situation, he was such a bad stylistic fit for how we played defense. It wasn't that he was inherently a bad goalie, but he was a goalie that liked seeing a lot of shots. Tkachuk at least fits our style, so it's not quite like trying to make a square peg fit inside a round hole.

I think the big thing with a potential Tkachuk deal is how much he signs for. Does he blow the cap structure or does he take a reasonable deal?

If MT signs 9-9.5mm AAV that feels like good value. If it's north of 10mm, it doesn't. So if we can get him at good value, I'm more inclined to pay the asset price to acquire him.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I mean, the exciting part about Tkachuk was having someone who wants to come here and having some leverage and it being a real possibility. The issue with overpaying in prospects and overextending ourselves in terms of cap space, doesn't that open the door to many possibilities? Wouldn't it be easy to pass on Tkachuk if we can actually get a 1st pairing LD because young players/cap space/leverage aren't a sticking point?

It's a winger you build around. Tank at times wasn't our best player. Marner isn't the Leafs' franchise player. But they were guys that were/are a big part of team foundation. No one is building around Ivan Barbashev. Many teams, Calgary included, would love to build around Kyrou. Not sure if this is a good faith argument.

So it sounds like by franchise winger you mean what some would call a core player? Not THE guy, but one of them? I'm not trying to be jerk, just want to understand your argument.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Tkachuk's arbitration date is August 11th, so that's the deadline for a trade.

 

[BleedBlue14]

You are not extending your window if you have to remove a Parayko or Faulk from our lineup to fit MT.

True,

I think the impact Krug would have on the lineup would be a little more replaceable.

The notion being, you’re creating a brand new very strong core for the foreseeable future.

 

[TK 421]

Yes, that's an incredible top 6. With literally zero money left for our bottom 6.

Assuming 9.5 for MT and 7.5 for Kyrou, which is the bare minimum I think either of those players would cost, Thomas, Schenn, Kyrou, Saad, Buch, and MT would account for 41.93M against the cap. For reference, our ENTIRE forward core is going to cost 43.9M this year. That's 2M left for six players, even with all league minimum guys we still would be over. Now, we probably get another 1M next year to play with, and maybe we can trade Scandella, but then you're still talking about 6.25M for 6 spots.

From just a cap perspective, going after MT would signal a huge shift in our organizational philosophy. We'd basically become the Maple Leafs West.....a ton of high end talent getting paid top dollar and no depth to speak of.

Furthermore, I don't think letting ROR go for MT is the right call at all. Schenn is a solid player, but he's a clear downgrade from Thomas, and Thomas is a clear downgrade from ROR (For now). We would go from center depth of ROR-Thomas-Schenn to Thomas-Schenn-Brown?

That's a huge step backwards all the way down the chain. It's kinda like....oh I dunno...that one time we had a top 5 guy on right D, then another really good dude after him as our 2nd pairing stalwart. We let the top 5 guy walk and our D has been a mess pretty much ever since. Do we really want to make the same mistake but with our Centers? Remember when we all were like, holy shit, if we ever got a true top line center we'd be a legit contender? Then we got one and we won a Cup? And now we're all just ready to let that guy go for Matthew f***ing Tkachuk?

I think MT is a good player. I think I'd enjoy watching him on the Blues. But man, if he wants to play here so f***ing bad, then he can take a hometown discount so we can address other spots on our roster. Personally, I'd rather the Blues stick with the organizational philosophy that won us a Cup vs. going all googly-eyes like Kyle Dubas did.

 

[MissouriMook]

Tkachuk's arbitration date is August 11th, so that's the deadline for a trade.

That might actually help the Blues as much as it helps Calgary if they need more time to find a trade partner for Tarasenko and/or Krug.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Hockey is a strong link sport. You do whatever you can to get A+ players, especially when they’ve made it known that they want to play for you.

Maybe we shouldn’t have signed a bunch 30+ year old defensemen to high AAV, long-term contracts. Seems like that may have been a short-sighted decision.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Yeah, a lot of those long term $6.5M AAV contracts are shaping up to look bad in a few years.

Faulk’s is ok but the Schenn, Parayko and Krug deals could definitely become albatrosses. Parayko’s goes to 2030! I’d be more than willing to trade away one of those guys to help ease the cap situation, making adding someone like MT more feasible.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Hockey is a strong link sport. You do whatever you can to get A+ players, especially when they’ve made it known that they want to play for you.

Maybe we shouldn’t have signed a bunch 30+ year old defensemen to high AAV, long-term contracts. Seems like that may have been a short-sighted decision.

We've only signed 2 30+ year old defenseman to contracts. Leddy and Scandella.

Faulk was 27
Parayko was 28
Krug had just turned 29

They'll be in their 30s during their contracts. But they were still in their 20s when they signed.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

None of those deals are necessarily bad on their own. It's the combination of all of them that has landed us in a pickle.

 

[Xerloris]

None of those deals are necessarily bad on their own. It's the combination of all of them that has landed us in a pickle.

What pickle? The only people that think we're having cap issues are fans. Armstrong has a cap structure he has planned out years in advance. He wants to only spend x amount of money on defense so if that money goes to 2 high paid players and the rest on entry level contracts he's fine with it but also if that money is spent more evenly across several players he's fine with that also.

 

[Brian39]

Third, Kyrou is fine player but has yet to prove he is franchise player.

Kyrou is also not about to be paid franchise player money either.

Not for nothing, but Tkachuk has yet to prove that he can be the #1 winger for a franchise. He's an 18 minute a night winger who just had his first season at or above a point per game. Kyrou's season this year is better than any season Tkachuk has had besides this year. And Kyrou sure as hell didn't have line mates as good as Tkachuk has had.

Tkachuk is a hell of a player. But the gap between he and Kyrou is certainly smaller than the gap between 'fine player' and 'franchise player.'

 

[stl76]

If locking up Parayko long term at $6.5 keeps us from signing Tkachuk for $10 then I am very much OK with that outcome.

And for the record I’d love to see Tkachuk in a Blues jersey if we can work it out without gutting the team and destroying our cap structure.

 

[PocketNines]

What pickle? The only people that think we're having cap issues are fans. Armstrong has a cap structure he has planned out years in advance. He wants to only spend x amount of money on defense so if that money goes to 2 high paid players and the rest on entry level contracts he's fine with it but also if that money is spent more evenly across several players he's fine with that also.

A pickle in reference to being able to win the Cup, that pickle.

The assumption that X dollars on defense is all the same thing in the end is aggressively idiotic were that indeed how Armstrong perceives it.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

What pickle? The only people that think we're having cap issues are fans. Armstrong has a cap structure he has planned out years in advance. He wants to only spend x amount of money on defense so if that money goes to 2 high paid players and the rest on entry level contracts he's fine with it but also if that money is spent more evenly across several players he's fine with that also.

Being unable to ice a true contender with the roster as it's constructed. You don't feel like the combination of those deals are at all prohibitive when in just two offseasons we're going to be losing Perron, Tarasenko, and potentially O'Reilly while still being left with a defensive unit that still leaves much to be desired?

 

[sfvega]

So it sounds like by franchise winger you mean what some would call a core player? Not THE guy, but one of them? I'm not trying to be jerk, just want to understand your argument.

Yes. When we had ROR/Tank/Petro, you could argue that none of them were THE guy. But they're guys you base the rest of the franchise around.

If locking up Parayko long term at $6.5 keeps us from signing Tkachuk for $10 then I am very much OK with that outcome.

And for the record I’d love to see Tkachuk in a Blues jersey if we can work it out without gutting the team and destroying our cap structure.

This is exactly where I'm at. Because he's a star and a local boy, people seem to want us to go to irrational lengths to get him, even if it does not make us more of a contender in the long run. I hope (and am pretty sure) DA doesn't think that way.

 

[LGB]

Kyrou is also not about to be paid franchise player money either.

Not for nothing, but Tkachuk has yet to prove that he can be the #1 winger for a franchise. He's an 18 minute a night winger who just had his first season at or above a point per game. Kyrou's season this year is better than any season Tkachuk has had besides this year. And Kyrou sure as hell didn't have line mates as good as Tkachuk has had.

Tkachuk is a hell of a player. But the gap between he and Kyrou is certainly smaller than the gap between 'fine player' and 'franchise player.'

I agree people are overstating the gap between Kyrou and Tkachuk. Tkachuk just had what will probably be the most productive season of his career playing on a line that had incredible chemistry with Gaudreau and Lindholm. I actually think Kyrou has a higher offensive ceiling though Tkachuk is definitely a better defensive player. When you factor in cap hit the gap is pretty small.

 

[Louie the Blue]

One of the big differences with the Miller situation, he was such a bad stylistic fit for how we played defense. It wasn't that he was inherently a bad goalie, but he was a goalie that liked seeing a lot of shots. Tkachuk at least fits our style, so it's not quite like trying to make a square peg fit inside a round hole.

I think the big thing with a potential Tkachuk deal is how much he signs for. Does he blow the cap structure or does he take a reasonable deal?

Well, another big thing is the Blues didn’t have big $ tied into guys going into or already in their 30s.

Having Tkachuk would cause more problems with regards to salary structure and fixing roster deficiencies. I’d much rather see Armstrong sell the farm for a top pairing D than to sell it for MT.

 

[Brian39]

I agree people are overstating the gap between Kyrou and Tkachuk. Tkachuk just had what will probably be the most productive season of his career playing on a line that had incredible chemistry with Gaudreau and Lindholm. I actually think Kyrou has a higher offensive ceiling though Tkachuk is definitely a better defensive player. When you factor in cap hit the gap is pretty small.

I'm not convinced that the gap on ice is as large as the gap in their AAVs will be between 2023/24 and 2030. If that AAV gap is just $1-2M then that is probably about the gap in on-ice performance. I don't think Tkachuk is $3M better than Kyrou and I think there is a very real chance that he will get that.

 

[DatDude44]

I'm not convinced that the gap on ice is as large as the gap in their AAVs will be between 2023/24 and 2030. If that AAV gap is just $1-2M then that is probably about the gap in on-ice performance. I don't think Tkachuk is $3M better than Kyrou and I think there is a very real chance that he will get that.

He brings a completely different element outside of scoringthat kyrou does not. If it's the difference between winning another cup then it's worth, if not then yeah 3 m would be extreme on the surface.

 

[Louie the Blue]

He brings a completely different element outside of scoringthat kyrou does not. If it's the difference between winning another cup then it's worth, if not then yeah 3 m would be extreme on the surface.

Tkachuk improves on area of strength.

Defense still isn’t improved upon. I think the Blues can contend with the D they have, but not compete for a SC victory. Trading for MT moves them further away from the goal of winning it all.

 

[LGB]

I'm not convinced that the gap on ice is as large as the gap in their AAVs will be between 2023/24 and 2030. If that AAV gap is just $1-2M then that is probably about the gap in on-ice performance. I don't think Tkachuk is $3M better than Kyrou and I think there is a very real chance that he will get that.

Yeah I wouldn't want to go above 9.5

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Not only are people overstating the gap between Tkachuk and Kyrou, but man, I keep banging this drum, but we are understating the gap between Schenn and ROR.

ROR since he became a Blue:

Regular Season//Playoffs

GP - 287 G - 85 A - 165 P - 250 // GP - 51 G - 19 A - 31 P = 50

Won a Selke and a Conn Smythe

Schenn since ROR became a Blue (Clips one regular season but overlaps playoffs.)

GP - 261 G - 82 A - 124 P - 206 // GP - 51 G - 8 A - 18 P - 26

ROR in the playoffs is a PPG player for his career here so far. Schenn is a .5 per game player in the playoffs here. ROR gets the most tough matchups night in and night out. The difference in going from ROR to Schenn is enormous. I cannot highlight enough the similarities to the AP/Parayko situation. Parayko wasn't going to "replace" AP, he was going to continue being Parayko, much like Thomas isn't really going to "replace" ROR, as much as continue to be Thomas, at least for the next 2-3 years.

 

[DatDude44]

Tkachuk improves on area of strength.

Defense still isn’t improved upon. I think the Blues can contend with the D they have, but not compete for a SC victory. Trading for MT moves them further away from the goal of winning it all.

MT's metrics actually help us alot defensively, obviously he's not a body on the blueline which is what i know youre getting at, but his play has an extremely positive effect at both ends of the ice. He's a unicorn type of player and the type that long term can be massive for us. We may have to re-tool around our cap situation for a season or two but overall could be a massive net positive in the grand scheme of things. Players like this don't become available often and i hope we take advantage of the opportunity.

My high take prediction is something similiar to the krug, kyrou + 1st deal for tkachuk, followed with a tarasenko trade maybe to philly for sanheim or provorov(50%retained)

Only issue is we become very thing on the right side up front if this happens. Maybe army thinks a guy like frk or leivo could actually play?

I don't know, this is all just absolutely crazy right now lmao. I'm here for the chaos!!!

Not only are people overstating the gap between Tkachuk and Kyrou, but man, I keep banging this drum, but we are understating the gap between Schenn and ROR.

ROR since he became a Blue:

Regular Season//Playoffs

GP - 287 G - 85 A - 165 P - 250 // GP - 51 G - 19 A - 31 P = 50

Won a Selke and a Conn Smythe

Schenn since ROR became a Blue (Clips one regular season but overlaps playoffs.)

GP - 261 G - 82 A - 124 P - 206 // GP - 51 G - 8 A - 18 P - 26

ROR in the playoffs is a PPG player for his career here so far. Schenn is a .5 per game player in the playoffs here. ROR gets the most tough matchups night in and night out. The difference in going from ROR to Schenn is enormous. I cannot highlight enough the similarities to the AP/Parayko situation. Parayko wasn't going to "replace" AP, he was going to continue being Parayko, much like Thomas isn't really going to "replace" ROR, as much as continue to be Thomas, at least for the next 2-3 years.

I would love to find a way to replace schenn, but he feels immovable with that contract.

I remember getting crucified a year or two ago when i proposed a tkachuk trade with schenn and a ton of futures from our side, it may have been kyrou included actually lmao...

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Not only are people overstating the gap between Tkachuk and Kyrou, but man, I keep banging this drum, but we are understating the gap between Schenn and ROR.

ROR since he became a Blue:

Regular Season//Playoffs

GP - 287 G - 85 A - 165 P - 250 // GP - 51 G - 19 A - 31 P = 50

Won a Selke and a Conn Smythe

Schenn since ROR became a Blue (Clips one regular season but overlaps playoffs.)

GP - 261 G - 82 A - 124 P - 206 // GP - 51 G - 8 A - 18 P - 26

ROR in the playoffs is a PPG player for his career here so far. Schenn is a .5 per game player in the playoffs here. ROR gets the most tough matchups night in and night out. The difference in going from ROR to Schenn is enormous. I cannot highlight enough the similarities to the AP/Parayko situation. Parayko wasn't going to "replace" AP, he was going to continue being Parayko, much like Thomas isn't really going to "replace" ROR, as much as continue to be Thomas, at least for the next 2-3 years.

Should definitely flip the stats around. (261 - GP instead of GP - 261 for example) or put a border between different stats. Thought I was losing my mind. Lol