Of all the things to be concerned about with Jiricek, skill is not high on my list personally. When he’s been healthy, he’s been terrific.
His health is definitely a concern, but bad LBIs usually have a way of boomeranging. Those also can keep you out of the weight room. I would reserve judgement until he gets this next summer under his belt. This was always going to be a tough year for him.
But he’s still 18. That’s reasonably 3-4 years away from being ready in even the best of circumstances. I don’t think hockey sense or skill is going to hold him back, so it really just comes down to reps. He’ll get plenty of them next year, health allowing, so I’m not overly concerned there.
It should also again be mentioned that this is what the prototypical “high risk high reward” prospect looks like. If he hadn’t gotten injured last season, all indications were that he was going to be a top-10 pick, I.e. we wouldn’t have gotten him at 16 like we did. For a middling team like ours, those are exactly the kinds of swings we should be taking. Especially when there is a cliff in pick quality like there was after Jiricek last year. Well, this is what it looks like. You take the gamble on health because the skill is too good to pass up if it works out.
We went through this same thing with Kostin. We only got him at 31 because he was injured all year. He never bounced back to his pre-draft form, and he insisted on going pro right away when a year in the CHL would have done him well. That’s the “high risk” part. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. I don’t think Jiricek is on that path, personally, but it’s absolutely a possible outcome here. You don’t draft above your expected value without taking a couple of these swings.
I’m not ready to write off the kid yet or anything but there’s valid concerns IMO. And yeah, his skill not developing to its fullest bc of the missed time is a legit concern. But the main thing I see lacking in him right now is his defensive play. And the lost time hampers his defensive development as well. He’s missing all sorts of development time. And he has 10 pts in 20 games. I wouldn’t say he’s been terrific when he’s played. I’ve seen glimpses of high potential but also a super rawness and bad defensive reads.
And I simply don’t agree with the line: “If he hadn’t gotten injured last season, all indications were that he was going to be a top-10 pick.”
Many scouts were starting to question Jiricek and move him down their lists last season BEFORE the big knee injury.
Here’s how his draft year played out:
3 assists in 5 games at the Hlinka tourney. This is what got him buzz and rankings around 10th overall going into the season.
Then he did…
0 pts in 3 Czech Jr games
4 pts in 9 games for the Czech U18 team (exhibitions)
0 pts 10 games for the Czech U20 team (exhibitions/prep/evals for the WJC)
1 pt in 19 games in the Czech Extraliga
He was also -10 in those 19 Extraliga games. The worst +/- on the team was -14 but it took 52 games for that player to get to -14. Jiricek needed only 19 games to get to -10. Suffice to say, he was getting absolutely caved in defensively. Completely outmatched. Probably shouldn’t have been playing pro hockey yet.
Then he got absolutely clobbered in the Extraliga and diagnosed with a concussion. Came back for the WJC, played a period and a half and then blew out his ACL.
So the ACL injury robbed him of the 2nd half of his draft season but he was already losing buzz before then. I recall reading at least a few scouts questioning if his lofty rankings were justified and how he’d likely drop when their mid-year rankings came out. But then he blew out his knee so he DEFINITELY dropped in the rankings. But my gut tells me he would’ve dropped anyway. Not as much but still dropped some.
Army said that the Blues scouts never dropped him. Mentioned his performance at the Hlinka tourney. So yeah, they clearly had him ranked higher than most. Will they be proven to be right eventually? Idk. Hopefully. But I have my doubts and I think there’s valid reasons to be concerned with his development and his future.