Not necessarily. It’s possible but next year he’s going to be 19. Should be dominating the OHL then but he’ll still be learning things he would’ve learned at 17 or 18 under normal circumstances. Then he’ll turn pro. Will he be ready from a skills standpoint? Will he have a harder time and never catch up to where he would’ve been otherwise because he’s that far behind now? Or maybe he’ll still be that much far behind physically. He’s an absolute string bean. I’m usually one of the main people not caring about weight of teenagers but he has a lot more meat to add to his bones than most. I think it’s more than fair to think his very slight frame is at least partially contributing to his injury woes. That won’t get any better once he turns pro unless he’s able to pack on some serious pounds over the next year or so.
I’m trying to give him the benefit of the doubt and I’m rooting for him but I’m also not exactly super excited with his development to date.
Of all the things to be concerned about with Jiricek, skill is not high on my list personally. When he’s been healthy, he’s been terrific.
His health is definitely a concern, but bad LBIs usually have a way of boomeranging. Those also can keep you out of the weight room. I would reserve judgement until he gets this next summer under his belt. This was always going to be a tough year for him.
But he’s still 18. That’s reasonably 3-4 years away from being ready in even the best of circumstances. I don’t think hockey sense or skill is going to hold him back, so it really just comes down to reps. He’ll get plenty of them next year, health allowing, so I’m not overly concerned there.
It should also again be mentioned that this is what the prototypical “high risk high reward” prospect looks like. If he hadn’t gotten injured last season, all indications were that he was going to be a top-10 pick, I.e. we wouldn’t have gotten him at 16 like we did. For a middling team like ours, those are exactly the kinds of swings we should be taking. Especially when there is a cliff in pick quality like there was after Jiricek last year. Well, this is what it looks like. You take the gamble on health because the skill is too good to pass up if it works out.
We went through this same thing with Kostin. We only got him at 31 because he was injured all year. He never bounced back to his pre-draft form, and he insisted on going pro right away when a year in the CHL would have done him well. That’s the “high risk” part. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. I don’t think Jiricek is on that path, personally, but it’s absolutely a possible outcome here. You don’t draft above your expected value without taking a couple of these swings.