Prospect Info: Blues 2021 draft

[simon IC]

I like Cuelemans because he is RD. I know his defensive game needs work, but I love his speed, which is something we need. He also seems to possess a good hockey IQ, so hopefully it won't be difficult for him to learn defensive play. I understand BPA is always the best way to go, so mea culpa for thinking in terms of organizational needs, but we really need more RD prospects.

 

[sfvega]

Is this draft really worth moving up in? It's already more of a question mark than most drafts given the COVID situation and it wasn't a draft worth hyping up before then.

I don't think it's 2012 bad, but to trade assets to move up a few spots seems silly to me when the net benefit doesn't seem to warrant such a move. I have no doubts that there will be players falling and rising all over the place given what data is available right now.

It's not much of an asset when Dunn is most likely to not be protected on D and a target for Seattle. So I think of it as essentially a bottom 6 forward to move into the top 10, which is unlikely to ever be the cost again even in a bad draft.

 

[Spektre]

Army likes size so if he's available my guess is the Blues pick Samuel Helenius.

 

[simon IC]

Army likes size so if he's available my guess is the Blues pick Samuel Helenius.

Elite Prospects, Dobber, and THW all say the same thing. Skates well for his size, but has a very limited offense. Sounds like his ceiling is bottom 6. I would not be thrilled if we selected him.
Edit: I noticed he was born in Dallas. He has got to be Sami Helenius' kid.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Elite Prospects, Dobber, and THW all say the same thing. Skates well for his size, but has a very limited offense. Sounds like his ceiling is bottom 6. I would not be thrilled if we selected him.
Edit: I noticed he was born in Dallas. He has got to be Sami Helenius' kid.

EP says he is.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

It's not much of an asset when Dunn is most likely to not be protected on D and a target for Seattle. So I think of it as essentially a bottom 6 forward to move into the top 10, which is unlikely to ever be the cost again even in a bad draft.

But then the situation becomes you lose two roster players to move up a few spots in a draft with serious question marks surrounding it. I don't think it's any coincidence that the players at the top of the draft are: A) players that scouts had a chance to see the most of, and B) played in a more usual situation. Moving up a few spots by losing two roster players, especially one as good and as young as Dunn, is a pretty steep price if your data is fairly flawed. And that's ignoring the overall quality of the draft right now.

 

[BlueMed]

Army likes size so if he's available my guess is the Blues pick Samuel Helenius.

I'd be surprised if he's taken in the first round to be honest. There's way too many good (not great) prospects this year.

 

[Stealth JD]

I like Cuelemans because he is RD. I know his defensive game needs work, but I love his speed, which is something we need. He also seems to possess a good hockey IQ, so hopefully it won't be difficult for him to learn defensive play. I understand BPA is always the best way to go, so mea culpa for thinking in terms of organizational needs, but we really need more RD prospects.

I want Corson Ceulemans to be drafted by Boston just so Jack Edwards has to struggle between him and this guy.

 

[sfvega]

But then the situation becomes you lose two roster players to move up a few spots in a draft with serious question marks surrounding it. I don't think it's any coincidence that the players at the top of the draft are: A) players that scouts had a chance to see the most of, and B) played in a more usual situation. Moving up a few spots by losing two roster players, especially one as good and as young as Dunn, is a pretty steep price if your data is fairly flawed. And that's ignoring the overall quality of the draft right now.

We're already losing a roster player in the ED. It has a cumulative effect on the roster, but that doesn't mean there's a cumulative cost in the deal. You don't go to a Blues game and buy a $10 beer and tell the concessions worker "You're telling me this beer costs $85 dollars?!" because you just combine the cost of separate things.

Lambos is a top 4 type, high end potential, all around prospect. We won't be in a position to draft someone like him again soon unless we're really bad to begin with. I think Kostin ends up as better than Blais anyway, but that may be a matter of personal preference. I don't want to move Dunn to begin with, but if we are, I'd much rather get something for him.

 

[The Note]

Elite Prospects, Dobber, and THW all say the same thing. Skates well for his size, but has a very limited offense. Sounds like his ceiling is bottom 6. I would not be thrilled if we selected him.
Edit: I noticed he was born in Dallas. He has got to be Sami Helenius' kid.

With this draft being extra crapshoot-y, even more so than the draft already is, I really hope they draft for ceiling and not floor.

 

[Prosaic]

Ayrton Martino at eliteprospects.com

So, I like this guy. Skilled, slick winger. Projects to go late first/early second. Blues don’t have a 2nd but in a draft that lacks significant high end talent I think moving down from 16 and adding an extra pick could be a pretty savvy move.

His high danger passing is some of the best in the draft.

 

[Ranksu]

I'd be surprised if he's taken in the first round to be honest. There's way too many good (not great) prospects this year.

Yeah, he did have impressive year at Liiga. I would rather pick him on late of 2nd or 3rd round. There is few finnish prospects which has rised. Oliver Kapanen, Aleksi Malinen. Add those name on your list.
Samu Tuomaala and Ville Koivunen and Samu Salminen and ofc Aatu Räty are most likely all go at 1st round and ahead of Helenius. But I must say personally I really like Helenius. He will be really good bottom 9 forward and penalty killer, well he was all that in this year. Hard to compare him to somebody else, his skating is really good for his size and really plays hard physical game, drives to net. Reminds so much of Wheeler on that part. Mostly, 'cus he is so frigging big and speedy.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Yeah, he did have impressive year at Liiga. I would rather pick him on late of 2nd or 3rd round. There is few finnish prospects which has rised. Oliver Kapanen, Aleksi Malinen. Add those name on your list.
Samu Tuomaala and Ville Koivunen and Samu Salminen and ofc Aatu Räty are most likely all go at 1st round and ahead of Helenius. But I must say personally I really like Helenius. He will be really good bottom 9 forward and penalty killer, well he was all that in this year. Hard to compare him to somebody else, his skating is really good for his size and really plays hard physical game, drives to net. Reminds so much of Wheeler on that part. Mostly, 'cus he is so frigging big and speedy.

big and speedy is good

 

[Ranksu]

big and speedy is good

But if you doesnt have high end offensive skills. Lack of good shot.

But he is interesting prospect. One note too that he can play men's game already. So he could be ready sooner than other prospects.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

But if you doesnt have high end offensive skills. Lack of good shot.

But he is interesting prospect. One note too that he can play men's game already. So he could be ready sooner than other prospects.

maybe stick him in the crease to tip shots/bang rebounds

 

[TK 421]

I have a feeling the Blues will be taking an Edmonton Oil King 1st Rd in back to back years.

I know what you're thinking. "Guenther will be long gone by 16th!"

Yes he will be gone by 16th, but Oil King MVP Sebastian Cossa will most likely still be available and I could see them both liking his potential as an elite starter and feeling they've scouted him enough to feel confident taking him at 16th. This is a player the Blues have seen dominate the last two seasons in the WHL and he's certainly going in the 1st Rd this draft, no way will he be available in the 2nd where the Blues don't currently have a pick anyway.

I would endorse this pick but them taking Cossa is just what I think they'll do which was the original point of my post. Could be very wrong of course and there are obviously many great skater options available at 16th but I think they take Cossa.

 

[Beauterham]

I have a feeling the Blues will be taking an Edmonton Oil King 1st Rd in back to back years.

I know what you're thinking. "Guenther will be long gone by 16th!"

Yes he will be gone by 16th, but Oil King MVP Sebastian Cossa will most likely still be available and I could see them both liking his potential as an elite starter and feeling they've scouted him enough to feel confident taking him at 16th. This is a player the Blues have seen dominate the last two seasons in the WHL and he's certainly going in the 1st Rd this draft, no way will he be available in the 2nd where the Blues don't currently have a pick anyway.

I would endorse this pick but them taking Cossa is just what I think they'll do which was the original point of my post. Could be very wrong of course and there are obviously many great skater options available at 16th but I think they take Cossa.

I like Cossa, but I think it's a mistake to use the 16th overall to pick a goalie. The goalie position is basicly the only position in our farm we're good at at the moment.

If you look at our prospectfarm, with Hofer, Ellis and Zherenko we have 3 goalie prospects that have the potential to be Binningtons successor, however only Kostin and Neighbours are potentially top 6 forwards and only Perunovich is potentially a top 4 defenseman.

I'd rather use our first on a defenseman or forward. That said, If Tristan Lennox or Benjamin Gaudreau is still available when we pick in the 3rd, sure... go ahead and pick a goalie.

 

[TK 421]

I like Cossa, but I think it's a mistake to use the 16th overall to pick a goalie. The goalie position is basicly the only position in our farm we're good at at the moment.

If you look at our prospectfarm, with Hofer, Ellis and Zherenko we have 3 goalie prospects that have the potential to be Binningtons successor, however only Kostin and Neighbours are potentially top 6 forwards and only Perunovich is potentially a top 4 defenseman.

I'd rather use our first on a defenseman or forward. That said, If Tristan Lennox or Benjamin Gaudreau is still available when we pick in the 3rd, sure... go ahead and pick a goalie.

I completely understand your position, I assume most of the board will have that same opinion.

I'm not suggesting Cossa 'should be' our pick at 16th though as I said before I would be happy if he was. What I'm suggesting is that he WILL be the Blues pick at 16. That's it, just me thinking he's who the Blues take.

 

[Stealth JD]

big and speedy is good

i'm having flashbacks of Chef Pay-R-Vee doing wrap-arounds with this comment.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I completely understand your position, I assume most of the board will have that same opinion.

I'm not suggesting Cossa 'should be' our pick at 16th though as I said before I would be happy if he was. What I'm suggesting is that he WILL be the Blues pick at 16. That's it, just me thinking he's who the Blues take.

Interesting perspective, but I think we take a forward.

 

[TK 421]

Interesting perspective, but I think we take a forward.

The Blues taking a forward is definitely the safe bet.

The path to taking a defenseman looks really narrow to me and the board would have to break just right for it to happen imo.

Lambos has medical issues that we still don't have info on but let's say the prognosis is good for his health in the future. At that point it's very likely he's gone by 15 leaving us with Ceulemans as the best D option. No other D is ranked in this range around 16 by most scouting services so unless the Blues really like Ceulemans that leaves a forward and there are plenty to choose from in that range which is why I suggest it's the safest bet.

I still think we're taking Cossa but it wouldn't surprise me to see a forward taken instead.

 

[Stealth JD]

There are a lot of really good scorers available in this draft, from Sillinger to Lucius to Bourgault to McTavish to Coronato...one of whom will likely still be on the board at 16. Really hope we go forward in round 1 and then spend the rest of the draft trying to mine gold amongst D-prospects.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

i'm having flashbacks of Chef Pay-R-Vee doing wrap-arounds with this comment.

haha.. maybe.. that guy should have been better than he ended up being.. puzzling..

question.. when is the XD ?

edit: nm.. 7/21..why was I thinking it was in June and the reg draft on 7/21?

 

[shpongle falls]

There are a lot of really good scorers available in this draft, from Sillinger to Lucius to Bourgault to McTavish to Coronato...one of whom will likely still be on the board at 16. Really hope we go forward in round 1 and then spend the rest of the draft trying to mine gold amongst D-prospects.

Sounds good to me, we could definitely use another good forward prospect.

 

[Beauterham]

The Blues taking a forward is definitely the safe bet.

The path to taking a defenseman looks really narrow to me and the board would have to break just right for it to happen imo.

Lambos has medical issues that we still don't have info on but let's say the prognosis is good for his health in the future. At that point it's very likely he's gone by 15 leaving us with Ceulemans as the best D option. No other D is ranked in this range around 16 by most scouting services so unless the Blues really like Ceulemans that leaves a forward and there are plenty to choose from in that range which is why I suggest it's the safest bet.

I still think we're taking Cossa but it wouldn't surprise me to see a forward taken instead.

It's hard to predict, we don't know if teams prioritize a specific position. Every year there are also a couple of teams that really like a specific player and are willing to draft that player higher then they are projected (ex. Moritz Seider). You could be right, on the other hand no one expected Chychrun to still be on the board when Arizona picked him at 16 in 2016 because other teams had other priorities. Same goes for Barzal in 2015 (what was Boston thinking?!).

Who knows what strategy the teams are going to deploy. If we're specifically looking at defenseman almost all scouting agencies are expecting Power, Clarke, Hughes and Edvinsson to go top 10. After that it's a crapshoot. Lambos is ranked from 3rd to not even being drafted in the first round at all. Ceulemans is mostly ranked between 15 and 31, however because this draft hardly has any high ranked right defensemen (only Brandt?) I wouldn't be surprised at all if a team will reach for him.

Lets summarize (IMO):

Potential top 15 defensemen:
Power, Clarke, Hughes Edvinsson, Ceulemans, Lambos

Potential top 15 forwards:
Beniers, Guenther, Eklund, McTavish, Lysell, Johnson, Sillinger, Svechkov, Coronato, Lucius, Olausson, Raty

Potential top 15 goalies:
Wallstedt, Cossa


Any of the bolded players could be in our range.
Not a fan of Raty though.

EDIT:
We also don't know if the teams will draft differently due to not been able to heavily scout a lot of the North American-prospects. Due to this we could see a boost to the stock of some European players, for example, catapulting Svechkov to the top 10. Also we don't know how much issue teams are going to take into potential injury problems (Lambos, Lucius, Wallstedt). If the former is true, I wouldn't even be surprised if teams are relunctant to draft Wallstedt (apparantly he has back problems and had multiple minor concussions) and pick Cossa over Wallstedt.