HF Habs: Blueline Prospects/Young Players - Who to Keep Who to Trade

[Ezpz]

Flyers wouldn't do Gauthier for Guhle one for one. Drysdale has more value than Ghule.
For Reinbacher, not sure how real those rumors are that we said no to the 5th overall for Gauthier.

People are missing Engstrom and Konyushkov in their D depth chart. Both guys could pass Ghule.
We for sure need to deal at least 1 of Ghule, Reinbacher, Engstrom, Konyushkov, Mailloux, Hutson

Harris, Struble, Barron, Kovacevic are simply depth players for the future.

Nah, hard disagree, Guhle's value is high above Drysdale's and Gauthier's. People are reading too much into past draft position. Guhle has developed far beyond Drysdale since their draft year as Drysdale still struggles defensively to even keep up in the NHL. Guhle is the type of player that doesn't get traded because he doesn't have question marks. That's why Anaheim added even for a pouting prospect who wanted out.

Guhle's upside is Ryan Suter/Shea Weber type of 1D. Drysdale doesn't have that potential, he'll be a Kaberle type at best (and I will die on the hill that Kaberle was never a 1D, just a PP merchant, with his only 1D-esque production years coming post lockout when PPs were abundant and there's a reason the Leafs had zero playoff success). Gauthier is a 25-30 goal guy at best, likely a poor man's Pacioretty like Erik Cole. Certainly a very useful guy to have in the system, but not at the cost of a top pairing D. There were no forwards left I would have taken except Michkov over Reinbacher for long term potential and value. Even Benson, despite all his talent, seems to have a difficult time picking up the pace in the playoffs which is often the case with smaller guys.

Gauthier was a reach at 5 in the weakest draft of the past 20 years and likely wouldn't have been top 10 in 2023, perhaps barely if he got to keep his D+1 stats and development. In College he's no better than Smith, Perrault or Leonard who he has a year of development on. All of those guys will eclipse his D+2 numbers next year if they stay in college.

Philly were literally willing to trade him to pick Reinbacher ahead of Michkov (since they knew Arizona wouldn't take Michkov, I am not insinuating they value Reinbacher over Michkov before his fan club gets angry).

I think we're going to complain about this for a long time though, since we have far too many quality D in the NHL and prospects. We really got screwed by picking 5th and nobody wanting Michkov, as I still think we would have taken Smith over Reinbacher and our pool would be more varied. Gauthier isn't a Smith-level (Or Michkov for that matter) prospect though.

 

[Magic Stick]

You guys overrate prospects all the time. Only Hutson will become anything resembling a legitimate top D. All the others will bust. Guhle will be good but is and will be plagued with injuries. Mark my words and come back in 10 years to tell me I was right.

 

[Sam de Mtl]

You guys overrate prospects all the time. Only Hutson will become anything resembling a legitimate top D. All the others will bust. Guhle will be good but is and will be plagued with injuries. Mark my words and come back in 10 years to tell me I was right.

That is ballsy as Hutson is the one facing the toughest odds out of them all.

 

[vokiel]

Trade anyone not named Guhle, Hutson or Reinbacher for the right return?

 

[Shutdown]

You guys overrate prospects all the time. Only Hutson will become anything resembling a legitimate top D. All the others will bust. Guhle will be good but is and will be plagued with injuries. Mark my words and come back in 10 years to tell me I was right.

i don't know if i'd be this cocky about my predictions if one of the first posts in my recent history was declaring Max Domi the Habs' future gritty #1 center

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

im a big fan of Guhle,Reinbacher,Hutson and Engstrom the rest time will tell

 

[Mrb1p]

Trade anyone not named Guhle, Hutson or Reinbacher for the right return?

For the right return trade anyone.

 

[Sterling Archer]

I’d like to see future pairings of:

Hutson Reinbacher
Guhle Barron
Xhekaj Mailloux
Struble

 

[Nicko999]

Nah, hard disagree, Guhle's value is high above Drysdale's and Gauthier's. People are reading too much into past draft position. Guhle has developed far beyond Drysdale since their draft year as Drysdale still struggles defensively to even keep up in the NHL. Guhle is the type of player that doesn't get traded because he doesn't have question marks. That's why Anaheim added even for a pouting prospect who wanted out.

Guhle's upside is Ryan Suter/Shea Weber type of 1D. Drysdale doesn't have that potential, he'll be a Kaberle type at best (and I will die on the hill that Kaberle was never a 1D, just a PP merchant, with his only 1D-esque production years coming post lockout when PPs were abundant and there's a reason the Leafs had zero playoff success). Gauthier is a 25-30 goal guy at best, likely a poor man's Pacioretty like Erik Cole. Certainly a very useful guy to have in the system, but not at the cost of a top pairing D. There were no forwards left I would have taken except Michkov over Reinbacher for long term potential and value. Even Benson, despite all his talent, seems to have a difficult time picking up the pace in the playoffs which is often the case with smaller guys.

Gauthier was a reach at 5 in the weakest draft of the past 20 years and likely wouldn't have been top 10 in 2023, perhaps barely if he got to keep his D+1 stats and development. In College he's no better than Smith, Perrault or Leonard who he has a year of development on. All of those guys will eclipse his D+2 numbers next year if they stay in college.

Philly were literally willing to trade him to pick Reinbacher ahead of Michkov (since they knew Arizona wouldn't take Michkov, I am not insinuating they value Reinbacher over Michkov before his fan club gets angry).

I think we're going to complain about this for a long time though, since we have far too many quality D in the NHL and prospects. We really got screwed by picking 5th and nobody wanting Michkov, as I still think we would have taken Smith over Reinbacher and our pool would be more varied. Gauthier isn't a Smith-level (Or Michkov for that matter) prospect though.

Absolutely not.

As any GM or non biased fan, Drysdale is more valuable than Ghule. Neither D is a #1 and although Ghule is better defensively, Drysdale offense puts him above Ghule.

Cmon now... Weber at age 21 was already a 40 pts D-man in the league. Ghule does not have that offense nor is as mean of a hockey player.
Like I said there are several players in the pipelines that could leapfrog Ghule in the depth chart.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Absolutely not.

As any GM or non biased fan, Drysdale is more valuable than Ghule. Neither D is a #1 and although Ghule is better defensively, Drysdale offense puts him above Ghule.

Cmon now... Weber at age 21 was already a 40 pts D-man in the league. Ghule does not have that offense nor is as mean of a hockey player.
Like I said there are several players in the pipelines that could leapfrog Ghule in the depth chart.

This is heretical thinking here. But painfully accurate as Ghule has been one of our most overrated prospects in recent memory. He's good, young defenceman, but I don't ever see him as a #1 on this team.

 

[Tyson]

This is heretical thinking here. But painfully accurate as Ghule has been one of our most overrated prospects in recent memory. He's good, young defenceman, but I don't ever see him as a #1 on this team.

At the beginning of this season I would have adamantly disagreed with you. I no longer disagree.

 

[Mrb1p]

Absolutely not.

As any GM or non biased fan, Drysdale is more valuable than Ghule. Neither D is a #1 and although Ghule is better defensively, Drysdale offense puts him above Ghule.

Cmon now... Weber at age 21 was already a 40 pts D-man in the league. Ghule does not have that offense nor is as mean of a hockey player.
Like I said there are several players in the pipelines that could leapfrog Ghule in the depth chart.

Ridiculous take. Guhle is producing the same numbers as Sergachev, Pietrangelo, Josi, doughty, Seider and Sanderson at ES and he clearly has the least offensive support of the group. Hes not a Makar/Hughes/Fox type, but hes in the mold of two-way Ds.

The lack of PP time and offensive support is heavily influencing this post. Last year was also the same.

This is heretical thinking here. But painfully accurate as Ghule has been one of our most overrated prospects in recent memory. He's good, young defenceman, but I don't ever see him as a #1 on this team.

I mea, hes currently the teams best D, so that statement is erroneous.

 

[DAChampion]

Hughes has an interesting game theory type problem.

To use a metaphor, in order take the Habs' to the next level he somehow needs to trade four coins of silver for one coin of gold, approximately. That does happen in the NHL (e.g. Eichel trade, Meier trade), but only one or two times per season.

As it stands, the Habs' have an excess of silver (and bronze) coins:
- Harris
- Barron
- Savard
- Matheson
- Struble
- Mailloux
- Mesar
- Roy
- Beck
- Heinemen
- Ylonen
- Farrell
- Kidney
- Newhook
- Hutson
- Anderson
- cap space
- draft picks

They obviously won't keep all of those players. What Hughes needs to do is complex, he needs to do a tree of trades, where some of those assets are traded for more fungible capital (like draft picks or younger players), and then packaged with remaining pieces once more information is available, once the next Eichel or Meier or Hall (2016) or Stone or Kessell (2015), and so on, opportunity presents itself.

There are also some failed examples of these trades, involving players like Scott Gomez, Matt Duchene, and Jonathan Drouin, that Hughes needs to avoid.

ETA: The only gold coins in the Habs system right now are Suzuki, Caulfield, Dach, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Reinbacher, and the 2024 1st.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Ridiculous take. Guhle is producing the same numbers as Sergachev, Pietrangelo, Josi, doughty, Seider and Sanderson at ES and he clearly has the least offensive support of the group. Hes not a Makar/Hughes/Fox type, but hes in the mold of two-way Ds.

The lack of PP time and offensive support is heavily influencing this post. Last year was also the same.


I mea, hes currently the teams best D, so that statement is erroneous.

Does that say more about the comparative strength of the team's defencemen or Ghule's ability?

 

[26Mats]

This is heretical thinking here. But painfully accurate as Ghule has been one of our most overrated prospects in recent memory. He's good, young defenceman, but I don't ever see him as a #1 on this team.

Guhle doesn't have to be a great offensive dman to be very useful.

I have been surprised to have seen forwards go around him like a pylon on one on ones a few times already this year.

 

[HuGo Sham]

Absolutely not.

As any GM or non biased fan, Drysdale is more valuable than Ghule. Neither D is a #1 and although Ghule is better defensively, Drysdale offense puts him above Ghule.

Cmon now... Weber at age 21 was already a 40 pts D-man in the league. Ghule does not have that offense nor is as mean of a hockey player.
Like I said there are several players in the pipelines that could leapfrog Ghule in the depth chart.

before his injury last year, Guhle was on pace for about 35 pts as a 20 year old

 

[DAChampion]

Guhle doesn't have to be a great offensive dman to be very useful.

I have been surprised to have seen forwards go around him like a pylone on one on ones a few times already this year.

Guhle has had serious brain farts defensively, my assumption is that they're simply growing pains and part of the development process.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Guhle doesn't have to be a great offensive dman to be very useful.

I have been surprised to have seen forwards go around him like a pylon on one on ones a few times already this year.

Against the Rangers, both Will Cuylle and Jonny Brodzinski, who are hardly offensive stars, beat Guhle on one-on-one rushes. Earlier, in the Kings 4-0 victory against the Canadiens in Montreal, Byfield blew past Guhle to score the Kings' second goal.

Guhle has shown promise, but the stampede to anoint him as a certain #1 is, at the very least, pre-mature.

 

[Ezpz]

Absolutely not.

As any GM or non biased fan, Drysdale is more valuable than Ghule. Neither D is a #1 and although Ghule is better defensively, Drysdale offense puts him above Ghule.

Cmon now... Weber at age 21 was already a 40 pts D-man in the league. Ghule does not have that offense nor is as mean of a hockey player.
Like I said there are several players in the pipelines that could leapfrog Ghule in the depth chart.

The difference is in PP points. Guhle hasn't even gotten a shot on the second wave. At ES he outproduces Drysdale and early Weber. Guhle has played so little PP time that he literally has 0 career PP points. Despite making the NHL younger than Weber, his first 79 games have had 28 ES points, which is equal to or not far off any year of Weber's career.

 

[Nedved]

He has the potential to be a top pairing guy, I still think his health is a huge question mark, and I like his game. I don't love it.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

I’d like to see future pairings of:

Hutson Reinbacher
Guhle Barron
Xhekaj Mailloux
Struble

I like your seven, but I doubt Hutson plays as much 5 on 5, and I feel that Struble needs to play as well, or at least rotate in often, even if it means one of the four LDs plays on the right. Struble combines speed, strength and grit. If he can play like he does now just a few weeks in, imagine in 2-3 years.

That said, this seven is a good argument to start weighing team need over BPA in the first round, and pick up some towering talents at C.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I like your seven, but I doubt Hutson plays as much 5 on 5, and I feel that Struble needs to play as well, or at least rotate in often, even if it means one of the four LDs plays on the right. Struble combines speed, strength and grit. If he can play like he does now just a few weeks in, imagine in 2-3 years.

That said, this seven is a good argument to start weighing team need over BPA in the first round, and pick up some towering talents at C.

It's a rare day that a team's need should be chosen over the best player available when drafting. Team needs can always be addressed through free agency or trades. The greatest imperative (need) when drafting should always be taking the best player available. If there are two players of equal value available , then a team's need can be employed as the determining factor.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Can we wait 2 more years before making an important decision like that? We have no rush to trade away any of them yet.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

It's a rare day that a team's need should be chosen over the best player available when drafting. Team needs can always be addressed through free agency or trades. The greatest imperative (need) when drafting should always be taking the best player available. If there are two players of equal value available , then a team's need can be employed as the determining factor.

Disagree. It's always a _weighted_sum_ of needs and talent available. The weighting factor varies. The team right now has an egregious need of scoring forward talent or a combination of scoring and grit at forward, especially at center, and given the surplus of NHL d-corps talent, other GMs can smell the asymmetry of the trade, when HuGo tries to trade excess Ds for Fs. In a perfect market, sure, you take the best player and then trade your excess for positions of need, but the NHL market is not perfect. GMs play games based on relative strength; they hoard their top scoring talent. Moreover, there is no thermometer or barometer equivalent that gives the NHL an actual number corresponding to the player's value, so the B in BPA then becomes very subjective and uncertain.

Given the later consideration, it would be foolish to set the weighting factor for need to a zero-value. Downright silly, if you consider that that estimates of player values just that: estimates, which can vary as information becomes available over time and as players develop.

Afterward, if year after year, HuGo is confronted with a uniforn defenseman at the draft, a bargain by 5-10 drafting positions... Do they keep drafting D year after year? This year, 2025, 2026, 2027? Of course not (that would be the definition of insanity, to keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome - namely an explosive offense). I don't accept the notion that any excess D can be traded for a comparable talent at forward whom we would have drafted otherwise, once the counterpart team realizes that they have in their talent pool.

 

[Ezpz]

It's far more likely the current guys are traded to make room for prospects in the future because they will be cheaper. I.e. trading Harris when Engstrom is ready but not before.