HF Habs: Blueline Prospects/Young Players - Who to Keep Who to Trade

ChesterNimitz

governed by the principle of calculated risk
Jul 4, 2002
5,882
12,804
Disagree. It's always a _weighted_sum_ of needs and talent available. The weighting factor varies. The team right now has an egregious need of scoring forward talent or a combination of scoring and grit at forward, especially at center, and given the surplus of NHL d-corps talent, other GMs can smell the asymmetry of the trade, when HuGo tries to trade excess Ds for Fs. In a perfect market, sure, you take the best player and then trade your excess for positions of need, but the NHL market is not perfect. GMs play games based on relative strength; they hoard their top scoring talent. Moreover, there is no thermometer or barometer equivalent that gives the NHL an actual number corresponding to the player's value, so the B in BPA then becomes very subjective and uncertain.

Given the later consideration, it would be foolish to set the weighting factor for need to a zero-value. Downright silly, if you consider that that estimates of player values just that: estimates, which can vary as information becomes available over time and as players develop.

Afterward, if year after year, HuGo is confronted with a uniforn defenseman at the draft, a bargain by 5-10 drafting positions... Do they keep drafting D year after year? This year, 2025, 2026, 2027? Of course not (that would be the definition of insanity, to keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome - namely an explosive offense). I don't accept the notion that any excess D can be traded for a comparable talent at forward whom we would have drafted otherwise, once the counterpart team realizes that they have in their talent pool.
It's not insanity if you acquire valuable assets. Case in point, the Canadiens drafted Reinbacher and the Flyers apparently offered Gauthier, a promising forward for him. The key imperative is to acquire as many valuable assets as possible who can be retained to help re-build or maintain your franchise or traded to fill an identified need. That's the essence of good asset management.
 

Nicko999

Registered User
Jan 23, 2008
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Montreal
Ridiculous take. Guhle is producing the same numbers as Sergachev, Pietrangelo, Josi, doughty, Seider and Sanderson at ES and he clearly has the least offensive support of the group. Hes not a Makar/Hughes/Fox type, but hes in the mold of two-way Ds.

The lack of PP time and offensive support is heavily influencing this post. Last year was also the same.


I mea, hes currently the teams best D, so that statement is erroneous.
Maybe it's because there are better players to use on the PP! I'd rather use Matheson and Barron before Ghule.

Let's not kid ourselves, Mike Matheson is the #1D of this team. Despite the hate he receives and the defense lapses.

before his injury last year, Guhle was on pace for about 35 pts as a 20 year old
You said it, this was last year. Also small sample size. For some unknown reason, he has regressed this year.
 

Mrb1p

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Dec 10, 2011
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Maybe it's because there are better players to use on the PP! I'd rather use Matheson and Barron before Ghule.

Let's not kid ourselves, Mike Matheson is the #1D of this team. Despite the hate he receives and the defense lapses.


You said it, this was last year. Also small sample size. For some unknown reason, he has regressed this year.
How would you know? Hes never played there. Mathesons PP production isnt even good to be fair.

Also, Guhle has more points than Matheson at 5v5, so Im not sure how youve concluded that. With the Habs, since last year, Guhle has only 3 less 5v5 points than Matheson.
 

Nicko999

Registered User
Jan 23, 2008
8,136
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Montreal
How would you know? Hes never played there. Mathesons PP production isnt even good to be fair.

Also, Guhle has more points than Matheson at 5v5, so Im not sure how youve concluded that. With the Habs, since last year, Guhle has only 3 less 5v5 points than Matheson.
Ghule does not have more points than Matheson at even strength. Barron has the same amount of points at 5 on 5 as well.

Matheson does not deserve to be taken off the PP, so the only other player that Ghule can replace is Barron. I would like to see what Ghule can do on the PP. He should be on the 2nd wave ahead of Barron, I will give you that.

Let's not act like his 5 on 5 production is amazing. 79th among D-man... even Chiarot has more pts at even strength.
 

dackelljuneaubulis02

Registered User
Oct 13, 2012
11,957
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Ghule does not have more points than Matheson at even strength. Barron has the same amount of points at 5 on 5 as well.

Matheson does not deserve to be taken off the PP, so the only other player that Ghule can replace is Barron. I would like to see what Ghule can do on the PP. He should be on the 2nd wave ahead of Barron, I will give you that.

Let's not act like his 5 on 5 production is amazing. 79th among D-man... even Chiarot has more pts at even strength.
Whoa Guhle’s 79th at ES scoring for D men? That’s actually pretty good
 

Mrb1p

PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
Dec 10, 2011
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Citizen of the world
Ghule does not have more points than Matheson at even strength. Barron has the same amount of points at 5 on 5 as well.

Matheson does not deserve to be taken off the PP, so the only other player that Ghule can replace is Barron. I would like to see what Ghule can do on the PP. He should be on the 2nd wave ahead of Barron, I will give you that.

Let's not act like his 5 on 5 production is amazing. 79th among D-man... even Chiarot has more pts at even strength.
Guhle and Barron both have more 5v5 points than Matheson, in less games.
 

MTL Dirty Birdy

Registered User
Aug 29, 2021
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Guhle and Reinbacher will both be 20+ minute defensemen for the next decade. Both will be able to play all over the ice and especially when we have the lead late in game.

I see Hutson being a PP specialist and getting his minutes primarily in the offensive zone and facing our opponents weaker forwards.

Mailloux looks to be a 2nd pairing type of Dman that will play the PP. A couple of years in Laval will hopefully evolve his game to make him an all situation player down the road.
I could see a Strube/ Mailloux pair. OR, continue thé Laval experiment and pair Wifi with Mailloux
 

MTL Dirty Birdy

Registered User
Aug 29, 2021
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Maybe it's because there are better players to use on the PP! I'd rather use Matheson and Barron before Ghule.

Let's not kid ourselves, Mike Matheson is the #1D of this team. Despite the hate he receives and the defense lapses.


You said it, this was last year. Also small sample size. For some unknown reason, he has regressed this year.
He benefitted from playing with Savard. Being a stay home D, it was a good match for Guhle. Now he plays with Barron whose known for constant lapses

Maybe it's because there are better players to use on the PP! I'd rather use Matheson and Barron before Ghule.

Let's not kid ourselves, Mike Matheson is the #1D of this team. Despite the hate he receives and the defense lapses.


You said it, this was last year. Also small sample size. For some unknown reason, he has regressed this year.
IMO, I see Matheson in a similar light to Petry. Strong skating offensive D with Defensive shortcomings. Play 1st pair but ideally should be second pair
 

Captain Mountain

Formerly Captain Wolverine
Jun 6, 2010
21,144
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Maybe it's because there are better players to use on the PP! I'd rather use Matheson and Barron before Ghule.

Let's not kid ourselves, Mike Matheson is the #1D of this team. Despite the hate he receives and the defense lapses.


You said it, this was last year. Also small sample size. For some unknown reason, he has regressed this year.

I don't think people remember how bad the team was last year, but Guhle has progressed this season in most measures. If we're talking 5v5, Guhle had a shooting % over 10% and an IPP over 50% last season. Its not some unknown reason why he regressed, almost no D-men have maintained that kind of scoring involvement or shooting percentage.
 

Nevins

Registered User
Jul 12, 2014
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The defenseman would reach their full maturity around the age of 27-29 so with so many rookie defenseman,, I hope they will be patient and not waste another Sergachev

https://summit.sfu.ca/_flysystem/fedora/2023-02/etd22294.pdf


Most research reaches the general consensus that these age effects are positional dependent; for example in [4] the authors conclude that the peak age for NHL forwards is between ages 27-28, while the peak age of performance for defencemen is between 28-29.
 

TheBuriedHab

Registered User
Jan 27, 2010
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As good as Struble is playing, we just have too many higher upside guys coming up the left side that will need to play eventually.

Guhle, Hutson, Xhekaj, Engstrom.

I think both Matheson and Struble will be traded within a year.

On the right we have Reinbacher and Mailloux. Then last slot will be between Barron or one of the left D (Engstrom?) that can play on the right.
 

Sorinth

Registered User
Jan 18, 2013
11,617
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As good as Struble is playing, we just have too many higher upside guys coming up the left side that will need to play eventually.

Guhle, Hutson, Xhekaj, Engstrom.

I think both Matheson and Struble will be traded within a year.

On the right we have Reinbacher and Mailloux. Then last slot will be between Barron or one of the left D (Engstrom?) that can play on the right.
The future line predictions where it's filled with prospects never comes true, a few years ago a similar exercise would have Norlinder, Romanov, as core players. Before that Brook, Mete, and Juulsen would have been locks to be in our future top-6. At one point Tinordi and Beaulieu were supposed to be our future top-pairing.

So I wouldn't dismiss the idea of Struble being in the lineup 5 years from now.
 

Miller Time

Registered User
Sep 16, 2004
24,475
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The future line predictions where it's filled with prospects never comes true, a few years ago a similar exercise would have Norlinder, Romanov, as core players. Before that Brook, Mete, and Juulsen would have been locks to be in our future top-6. At one point Tinordi and Beaulieu were supposed to be our future top-pairing.

So I wouldn't dismiss the idea of Struble being in the lineup 5 years from now.

Guhle has shown better than any of those at this point.

Harris, Barron, Xhekaj & Strubble have at least matched or arguably exceeded what Mete showed in his best year. (who is the only one of the guys you listed outside of Romanov who did anything as an NHL player with us.

And it's quite possible the we have 3 prospects who will be better than any of those 4 as pro's (RB, Hutson, Mailloux)... And 2 others (Engstrom & Konyushkov) who have outperformed most of the D's picked ahead of them in their respective draft classes this far...

I don't think there's a reasonable case to be made that we've had as good a U21 D depth chart as we do right now in the past 20+ years...

But I certainly do agree that the potential is meaningless if we don't see a few of them reach or at least get near it.
 

Lebowski

El Duderino
Dec 5, 2010
17,608
5,273
Ghule does not have more points than Matheson at even strength. Barron has the same amount of points at 5 on 5 as well.

Matheson does not deserve to be taken off the PP, so the only other player that Ghule can replace is Barron. I would like to see what Ghule can do on the PP. He should be on the 2nd wave ahead of Barron, I will give you that.

Let's not act like his 5 on 5 production is amazing. 79th among D-man... even Chiarot has more pts at even strength.

Matheson doesn't even have to be taken off to make room for Guhle. I don't know why it appears like we're dead set in our ways when it comes to the 4F 1D PP formation?

I supposed it all changed once Markov left, but our best PP set-ups were 3F 2D for a long time. I don't see the necessity to run a 4F formation considering how thin we are up front.

I'd definitely give Guhle a go on the first PP wave. I'd argue he has the best point shot from all our Ds right now. He also skates and move the puck well. I honestly can't explain to myself how he hasn't been given an honest look on the PP thus far.
 

HuGo boss

Registered User
Apr 7, 2022
167
329
RHD is C- with : Reinbacher, Mailloux, Barron, Bogdan, Pretty sad tbh.

Honest question do many teams have better prospect rhd potential then us? Rein and Mailloux have top 4 potential and outside chance at top 2, barron more likely waiver material but definitely see him as a journeymen in rhe nhl with his skating and offensive potential, Bogdan is a wild card if he ever comes could be a player
 

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