HF Habs: Blueline Prospects/Young Players - Who to Keep Who to Trade

[Mrb1p]

We'll see!


And the thing is, can we even get a 2nd for Harris?

Probably not, and if they can get a 2nd for Harris, they should get it right now. He was a 3rd rounder anyway, it's a very good return on investment.

 

[DAChampion]

Probably not, and if they can get a 2nd for Harris, they should get it right now. He was a 3rd rounder anyway, it's a very good return on investment.

Trading every 3rd rounder that succeeds for a 2nd rounder is not a good return on investment as you end up increasing the bust rate that way.

 

[WeThreeKings]

We'll see!


And the thing is, can we even get a 2nd for Harris?

Without a doubt.. but it would be beyond stupid to do so.

 

[Mrb1p]

Trading every 3rd rounder that succeeds for a 2nd rounder is not a good return on investment as you end up increasing the bust rate that way.

You end up with a better though, and Harris, while not a bust, is a replacement level player. Getting a guy like Lindstrom/Kovacevic+2nd > Harris.

 

[26Mats]

Without a doubt.. but it would be beyond stupid to do so.

Why?

Is he part of the future? If not, can we get a higher return than that down the line?

Guhle - Reinbacher
Matheson - Barron
Xhekaj - Mailloux
Hutson (We'll see where he fits)
Engstrom - Bogdan
Struble
Harris
Trudeau

 

[WeThreeKings]

Why?

Is he part of the future? If not, can we get a higher return than that down the line?

Guhle - Reinbacher
Matheson - Barron
Xhekaj - Mailloux
Hutson (We'll see where he fits)
Engstrom - Bogdan
Struble
Harris
Trudeau

We don't need to trade a good young defenseman for a 2nd round pick.. if you are moving Jordan Harris, you'd be doing it to address other areas of the roster.

 

[26Mats]

Trading every 3rd rounder that succeeds for a 2nd rounder is not a good return on investment as you end up increasing the bust rate that way.

I'm not sure what this means.

But, it's not about trying to trade every 3rd rounder for a 2nd rounder. It's about dealing with a situation where we've drafted an abundance of good dmen and not all can play in the top 6/7. So, given that reality, it's a matter of balancing maximizing the dcore with the players we keep with the assets we get in return for trading those that won't be in the future top 6/7.

We don't need to trade a good young defenseman for a 2nd round pick.. if you are moving Jordan Harris, you'd be doing it to address other areas of the roster.

If Reinbacher makes it next year, who are your top 6/7 dmen in the lineup?

 

[DAChampion]

I'm not sure what this means.

Say 80% of third rounders bust and 60% of second rounders bust.

If you trade every successful third rounder for a second round draft pick, you increase the bust rate to 92%.

Because Jordan Harris is no longer a third rounder. He's more valuable than that since he made it.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'm not sure what this means.

But, it's not about trying to trade every 3rd rounder for a 2nd rounder. It's about dealing with a situation where we've drafted an abundance of good dmen and not all can play in the top 6/7. So, given that reality, it's a matter of balancing maximizing the dcore with the players we keep with the assets we get in return for trading those that won't be in the future top 6/7.



If Reinbacher makes it next year, who are your top 6/7 dmen in the lineup?

If he's the only graduate?

We are probably looking at something like this

Guhle-Barron
Matheson-Reinbacher
Xhekaj-Harris
Kovacevic

I would expect Savard to no longer be with the organization past this trade deadline/off-season as he will be a liquidated asset.

 

[Hins77]

Trading every 3rd rounder that succeeds for a 2nd rounder is not a good return on investment as you end up increasing the bust rate that way.

Sure. But the value of Harris isnt that High. I mean, Montreal is at the bottom in the east. There is no contender as Harris regular in the top 6. The moment we are going to be contender. It because. Reinbacher is gonna be stud, Hutson, we gonna have a goalie. Harris gonna be 7th

 

[26Mats]

If he's the only graduate?

We are probably looking at something like this

Guhle-Barron
Matheson-Reinbacher
Xhekaj-Harris
Kovacevic

I would expect Savard to no longer be with the organization past this trade deadline/off-season as he will be a liquidated asset.

Yes, I expect (hope for) Savard to be dealt to make room for Reinbacher.

What about Struble? So yes, what if both Struble and Reinbacher graduate to the NHL.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Sure. But the value of Harris isnt that High. I mean, Montreal is at the bottom in the east. There is no contender as Harris regular in the top 6. The moment we are going to be contender. It because. Reinbacher is gonna be stud, Hutson, we gonna have a goalie. Harris gonna be 7th

The value of Harris is extremely high. He's young. He's good. He's cheap.

Have you looked at contenders top 6? Look at the f***ing Leafs man, he'd be like their 3rd best defenseman.

Yes, I expect (hope for) Savard to be dealt to make room for Reinbacher.

What about Struble? So yes, what if both Struble and Reinbacher graduate to the NHL.

Struble will be back in the AHL, I can't see a path where Struble plays in our defense next year if Reinbacher graduates and sticks. They'd have to trade Kovacevic, which would make the D group even greener, and have a rotation of those guys.

 

[SwiftyHab]

Engstrom in the SHL
Konyushkov in the KHL
Reinbacher in the NLA
Hutson in the NCAA

All in addition to Mailloux, Trudeau, Struble in the AHL and Guhle Barron Harris Xhekaj in the NHL.

I just have 0 concerns. Defenseman have more value than forwards and we will draft a good forward this year.

can you add a vote to this thread to see which D people want to keep

 

[26Mats]

The value of Harris is extremely high. He's young. He's good. He's cheap.

Have you looked at contenders top 6? Look at the f***ing Leafs man, he'd be like their 3rd best defenseman.



Struble will be back in the AHL, I can't see a path where Struble plays in our defense next year if Reinbacher graduates and sticks. They'd have to trade Kovacevic, which would make the D group even greener, and have a rotation of those guys.

Or they could trade Harris.

The thing is, with Mailloux, Hutson, and Engstrom coming in the year after next, where do you see Harris? If he's not part of the 2025-2026 blue line, will his trade value be higher than a 2nd by then?

Say 80% of third rounders bust and 60% of second rounders bust.

If you trade every successful third rounder for a second round draft pick, you increase the bust rate to 92%.

Because Jordan Harris is no longer a third rounder. He's more valuable than that since he made it.

Trading a player you drafted doesn't make them a bust.

Romanov wasn't a bust as a 2nd rounder. And by virtue of being traded for Dach, he even increased the success of the pick used to draft him. They don't win the cup without those trades.

Trading young players can be an important tool. Vegas failed in trading Suzuki for Pacioretty. But they made great trades in trading Brannstrom for Mark Stone and Krebs and Tuch for Jack Eichel.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Or they could trade Harris.

The thing is, with Mailloux, Hutson, and Engstrom coming in the year after next, where do you see Harris? If he's not part of the 2025-2026 blue line, will his trade value be higher than a 2nd by then?


Trading a player you drafted doesn't make them a bust.

Romanov wasn't a bust as a 2nd rounder. And by virtue of being traded for Dach, he even increased the success of the pick used to draft him.

Why would they just trade Harris? Struble is still AHL eligible and can learn more by playing a 2nd season in the AHL, rather than bringing up another green rookie and moving out Harris for a pick that isn't helpful.

Harris' value will remain high because he remains good, young and affordable. When Jordan Harris finds his way out (which still remains TBD because he's the guy who can play anywhere on a D core, vs. someone like a Mailloux, Hutson, Engstrom who need PP minutes) it would be in a move to secure depth or a need elsewhere.

His value won't cater below what it is today as he gets better in the NHL.

 

[26Mats]

Why would they just trade Harris? Struble is still AHL eligible and can learn more by playing a 2nd season in the AHL, rather than bringing up another green rookie and moving out Harris for a pick that isn't helpful.

Harris' value will remain high because he remains good, young and affordable. When Jordan Harris finds his way out (which still remains TBD because he's the guy who can play anywhere on a D core, vs. someone like a Mailloux, Hutson, Engstrom who need PP minutes) it would be in a move to secure depth or a need elsewhere.

His value won't cater below what it is today as he gets better in the NHL.

It's possible they move Savard and Kovacevic in the case where Reinbacher and Struble are ready.

But I'm still not sure Harris gets us a 2nd in a trade.

We'll see how things play out. I like Lindstrom much better than Wideman as our number 7. I could see Harris in that role if there aren't good offers for him. There will be injuries every year anyways.

 

[DAChampion]

@WeThreeKings , if Harris isn't good enough to be a top-four D on the ~24th best team in the league, how can it be that his trade value is high?

 

[WeThreeKings]

@WeThreeKings , if Harris isn't good enough to be a top-four D on the ~24th best team in the league, how can it be that his trade value is high?

How hasn't he been good enough to be a top 4 D on this team? He's played in the top 4 quite consistently and even then; I think people are overrating things here.

We got a 2nd round pick for a pending UFA in Brett Kulak.

Depth on defense is valuable. Depth that is cheap and young is even more valuable.

Do you really think contending teams would scoff at trading a 2nd round pick for Jordan Harris to add to their blueline and not materially impact their cap at all?

 

[Mrb1p]

@WeThreeKings , if Harris isn't good enough to be a top-four D on the ~24th best team in the league, how can it be that his trade value is high?

His value isnt that high, but he is young, cheap and can probably have a shift on a 3rd pair without too much problem.

Hes probably a 2nd-3rd round pick, I guess. Same for Kovacevic.

My main point earlier was that we should move on from assets before their value depreciates. What is Harris going to be? At best? Is he likely going to be worth much more than what he is right now? Or is he worth more to us than his current value?

 

[DAChampion]

How hasn't he been good enough to be a top 4 D on this team? He's played in the top 4 quite consistently and even then; I think people are overrating things here.

We got a 2nd round pick for a pending UFA in Brett Kulak.

Depth on defense is valuable. Depth that is cheap and young is even more valuable.

Do you really think contending teams would scoff at trading a 2nd round pick for Jordan Harris to add to their blueline and not materially impact their cap at all?

I have no doubt that a contending team would offer a 57th overall for Jordan Harris. I'm questioning if he's worth more than that.

My main point earlier was that we should move on from assets before their value depreciates. What is Harris going to be? At best? Is he likely going to be worth much more than what he is right now? Or is he worth more to us than his current value?

No reason to expect Harris' value to depreciate. His I expect to remain approximately constant for the near future.

 

[Mrb1p]

I have no doubt that a contending team would offer a 57th overall for Jordan Harris. I'm questioning if he's worth more than that.



No reason to expect Harris' value to depreciate. His I expect to remain approximately constant for the near future.

At some point there is the "mystery box" effect that attenuates. Harris is "proven" but there's still upside for him as a player.

IMO, thats where the depreciation comes. This and cost are the two big reasons his value will go down, albeit not drastically, of course.

At this point though, Harris is 4th on the depth chart on LD and at best 3rd on RD. Whats he worth to us?

What would the aforementioned Leafs offer up for him? What would the Oilers?

 

[waitin425]

Always uncertain because progress is & injuries are unpredictable... But I'd go with these tiers:

Tier 1
Keepers unless they hit career dead end:

Guhle, Reinbacher, Hutson

Tier 2
Keep unless part of package for elite player or they stagnate (aren't top 4 lock) past waiver exempt status:

Mailloux, Barron, Xhekaj, Engstrom, Konyushkov

Tier 3
Nice to have but move before losing to waivers if they aren't NHL regulars:
Strubble, Trudeau, Norlinder et al.

Matheson I'd keep until his last year unless a "offer we can't refuse" comes up. Trade him if we can in his expiring year or keep him for that playoff run.

Savard, trade when decent offer arises.

Kovacevic & Harris I'd be shopping aggressively & move for best return available this year or next.

Hard to argue with this. Out of tier 2, two of the guys will have to drop off at some point. Only time will tell us which two. Tier 3 players will have to work doubly hard to supplant anyone in tier 2. Only room for 6 of these guys in the 3-4 year range. The rest will either never have made it, or will be shipped off via FA, waivers, trade etc.

 

[Egresch]

Depth on defense is valuable. Depth that is cheap and young is even more valuable.

I agree, basically any contender would take a guy like Harris if single one of their D gets injured. By TDL, he should have 100 NHL games under his belt at age 23. He is a great kid at 1,4M signed for next year. You also need to consider that most of the contending teams have dry pipeline of prospects, so any young NHLer is a big win.

 

[DAChampion]

At this point though, Harris is 4th on the depth chart on LD and at best 3rd on RD. Whats he worth to us?

So at a typical moment in time, Harris is a third pairing D on the Habs. Might as well keep him there.

 

[26Mats]

How hasn't he been good enough to be a top 4 D on this team? He's played in the top 4 quite consistently and even then; I think people are overrating things here.

We got a 2nd round pick for a pending UFA in Brett Kulak.

Depth on defense is valuable. Depth that is cheap and young is even more valuable.

Do you really think contending teams would scoff at trading a 2nd round pick for Jordan Harris to add to their blueline and not materially impact their cap at all?

I agree, basically any contender would take a guy like Harris if single one of their D gets injured. By TDL, he should have 100 NHL games under his belt at age 23. He is a great kid at 1,4M signed for next year. You also need to consider that most of the contending teams have dry pipeline of prospects, so any young NHLer is a big win.

When Iblook back at recent trade deadlines, I remember teams trading 2nds, 3rds, and even 1sts for dmen with size.

I don't recall anyone trading those picks for a dman under 6 feet. Can you guys recall such a trade?