Blue Jays Discussion: Beyond the Braves.

[Discoverer]

No sir. I have a spreadsheet that uses the date available from thebaseballcube that kicks out wOBA and wRC+ using neutral park factors and neutral league based data. Made it a few years ago when I had a little more free time.

Rough rule of thumb though, if you're looking for the .400 wOBA / 150 wRC+ line, you're safe if you're in .915 OPS \ .225 ISO territory usually.

Dear god. I thought I was intense about this kind of stuff.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Dear god. I thought I was intense about this kind of stuff.

I once wrote an article entitled "Dr. Rasmuslove: or, how I learned stop worrying and love the Colby". It doesn't get much more nerdintense.

The spreadsheet's original purpose was to generate wOBA's for Cuban's using their Serie Nacional stats around the time when Rusney Castillo was a free agent, and Puig\Cespedes had taken the world by storm.

 

[nilan30]

What can you folks tell me about Sportsnet Now? I've been living in a house since April 2 (not paying rent-staying for free). This house has been mostly empty for 3.5 years except for the occasional weekly or monthly renter. I'm going to be there until the end of June. Shaw Cable had been cancelled in September 2013 but they never cut it off until about 4 weeks ago. Obviously I'm not going to ask the owner to get cable since I'm staying there for free but I'm dying not being able to watch Jays games. I'll be back in my house in July where I have access to ExpressVu so I only need to figure something out for a month.

Can I get Sportsnet Now for one month? Can I just then watch my games via computer hooked to tv with HDMI cord? That's how I've been watching the hockey games although I don't even really care about them, they are just easy to stream off CBC. I don't think I can handle another month without watching the Jays. April I rarely got to see a game because when I had cable I only had one Sportsnet channel and the Jays games were always on like SPortsnet One which I didn't have.

Any input would be appreciated.

 

[VanW27]

My two cents on Sportsnet Now.

It works very well for me through the Sportsnet app, which I cast to my tv. It doesn't work as well through the website on my laptop but still good. I get all channels (regions, One, 360 and world) so you never have to worry about which channel the game is on.

The catch, it's pricey and the free trial is only one week long so not much time to judge for yourself. I use it a lot and would probably pay the price for it if I wasn't able to get it for free (it's included with some cable/satellite providers, if you'll have access to expressvu, you may be able to get it set up)

 

[zeke]

Alex Rodriguez and Delmon Young did it as well.

Adrian Beltre did it at 17.

heh I love that you calculate that. that's awesome. please share that as often as possible.

but for the record ARod just missed the age cutoff and was a very old 18 - a good 8 months older than vladdy while Young was 6 months older.....and neither had anywhere close to Vladdy's BB/K rates.

 

[Discoverer]

heh I love that you calculate that. that's awesome. please share that as often as possible.

but for the record ARod just missed the age cutoff and was a very old 18 - a good 8 months older than vladdy while Young was 6 months older.....and neither had anywhere close to Vladdy's BB/K rates.

Yeah, of all the guys being discussed, Guerrero has pretty easily the best BB/K rates (13.0 BB%, 12.0K%). Trout (12.5 BB% , 14.1 K%) is closest.

I would still like to see the homeruns start coming a bit more, but Guerrero's season to this point has him with the elite of the elite. And this isn't even a list of a bunch of great prospects who did or didn't pan out... Young is the only exception. The rest of the list consists entirely guys who turned into elite major league hitters (and, in most cases, likely Hall of Famers).

 

[zeke]

Prospects Stats Update at the end of May with my hottakes:


AAA

LF Smith (24): 186pa, 8.6bb%/15.1k%, .348bip/.315avg, .145iso, 134wrc+
1B Tellez (22): 184pa, 10.9bb%/18.5k%, .256bip/.225avg, .138iso, 86wrc+
CF Pompey (24): ---

Smith continues to hit after going back down, and is looking like he has an MLB future. Rowdy is still struggling, but especially against LHP where he's getting crushed - this is becoming a legit concern now.

AA

CF Alford (22): 141pa, 11.3bb%/17.0k%, .385bip/.325avg, .130iso, 146wrc+
C Jansen (22): 42pa, 7.1bb%/9.5k%, .364bip/.333avg, .139iso, 140wrc+
C McGuire (22): 63pa, 12.7bb%/17.5k%, .225bip/.216avg, .157iso, 85wrc+
SS Urena (21): 206pa, 6.8bb%/18.4k%, .280bip/.235avg, .102iso, 71wrc+
LF Ramirez (22): 155pa, 5.8bb%/14.8k%, .250bip/.230avg, .115iso, 70wrc+

Alford is great of course but Jansen is following up his blistering of A+ by matching Alford step for step at a more age appropriate AA - he's maintaining the awesome BB/K numbers and is putting up a great line without leaning as much on babip. I think Jansen is moving way up the rankings. McGuire is still injured, Urena is finally showing some signs of life (though at his age the struggles aren't as worrying), while Ramirez' prospect status is fading quickly.

RH Greene (22): 59.0ip, 17.2k%/10.8bb%, 3.66era/4.00fip/3.94xfip
RH R-Foley (21): 37.2ip, 23.7k%/12.7bb%, 5.26era/4.30fip/4.17xfip
RH Rios (22): 36.2ip, 12.8k%/9.8bb%, 3.93era/5.20fip/4.65xfip
RH Harris (23): 56.0ip, 16.3k%/6.8bb%, 5.79era/5.61fip/4.08xfip

Greene has slowed down after a good start and his line is looking very mediocre overall now. SRF has recovered from his awful start and his numbers are starting to look solid now, and he's young for the level. Rios is still injured. Harris is still not a prospect.

A+

SS Gurriel (23): 2pa, 0.0bb%/0.0k%, .500bip/.500avg, .500iso, 332wrc+
OF Pompey (24): 10pa, 20.0b%/10.0k%, .571bip/.500avg, .125iso, 258wrc+
*C Jansen (22): 136pa, 5.9bb%/10.3k%, .385bip/.369avg, .172iso, 179wrc+*
C Pentecost (24): 178pa, 7.9b%/19.1k%, .339bip/.308avg, .226iso, 158wrc+
2B Biggio (22): 209pa, 12.9b%/23.0k%, .352bip/.263avg, .091iso, 112wrc+
CF Thomas (21): 210pa, 8.6b%/26.7k%, .336bip/.250avg, .138iso, 102wrc+
SS Vicuna (19): 88pa, 3.4b%/21.6k%, .262bip/.200avg, .038iso, 43wrc+

whither gurriel? Nice to see Dalton back. Pentecost still looking good but still way old for the level. Biggio doing just enough not to give up on. Thomas fading after a promising start....what looked like a breakout may just have been a blip. Still can't figure out why the jays think Vicuna should be in A+ at 19.

LH Borucki (23): 46.2ip, 28.6k%/6.1b%, 3.86era/2.73fip/2.66xfip
RH Zeuch (21): 53.0ip, 18.1k%/6.0b%, 3.23era/3.32fip/3.37xfip
LH Perdomo (23): 49.1ip, 18.6k%/12.7b%, 4.65era/5.34fip/4.61xfip

Borucki killing it but has to show it a higher level by now. Zeuch rock solid across the board. Perdomo not really a prosepct anymore.

A

SS Bichette (19): 192pa, 10.4b%/17.7k%, .453bip/.381avg, .238iso, 205wrc+
2B Jones (22): 198pa, 9.6b%/23.2k%, .390bip/.324avg, .244iso, 167wrc+
3B Guerrero (18): 192pa, 13.0b%/12.0k%, .358bip/.327avg, .173iso, 164wrc+
CF Olivares (21): 197pa, 3.0b%/17.8k%, .293bip/.259avg, .196iso, 105wrc+
CF Woodman (22): 189pa, 7.4b%/40.7k%, .418bip/.249avg, .118iso, 92wrc+
CF Palacios (21): 139pa, 10.1b%/20.1k%, .253bip/.197avg, .057iso, 62wrc+
SS Gudino (20): 155pa, 7.7b%/12.3k%, .239bip/.215avg, .052iso, 71wrc+

Bo knows elite prospect status. Vladdy still awesome. Jones still doing it too. All three should be bumped up at the midway mark. Olivares doing enough to keep tabs on. Woodman and Palacios starting to confirm non-prospect status. Gudino barely holding on.

RH Maese (20): 63.2ip, 19.7k%/7.3bb%, 4.24era/3.41fip/3.62xfip

Maese continuing his bounceback after a rough start. Looking real good again.




Tentative ever-changing rankings:


1.Guerrero
2.Bichette
-----------
3.Alford
4.Tellez
5.Reid-Foley
6.Urena
7.Zeuch
8.Maese
9.Jansen
10.Gurriel
11.Greene
12.Pentecost
13.McGuire
14.Smith
15.Jones

 

[Eyedea]

And to touch on this;

Loup vs Hand against lefties in 2017:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...eam=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=9111,10343

Loup vs Hand against lefties from 2016-17:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...eam=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=9111,10343

-----------

Hand is much better at getting righties out but we might have 2-3 pitchers in the pen already as good as Hand getting righties out so he may not have the same value. So i think it would cost a lot to get a guy like Hand when you have someone filling that LOOGY position fine as it stands. Just hoping Howell can p

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...21,9111,10343,13764,3281,10291,8245&sort=19,d

Plus he would be an NL Central pitcher coming to an AL East team. Might not be a seemless transition. I like Hand, just wouldnt like the price he would likely garner.

Does it really matter if there are 2-3 pitchers in the pen as good as Hand at getting righties out? That's called depth, and he provides value facing both righties and lefties. Basically think of him as a left-handed version of Barnes (or an Andrew Miller lite), and that value of adding another pitcher that can go multiple innings facing any type of batter is huge. Despite him having two more years of control, I also don't think he'll command too much back in prospect value. Urena straight up is probably the going rate.

 

[zeke]

An arguable top-100 prospect for a good but not great RP? really?

 

[nilan30]

My two cents on Sportsnet Now.

It works very well for me through the Sportsnet app, which I cast to my tv. It doesn't work as well through the website on my laptop but still good. I get all channels (regions, One, 360 and world) so you never have to worry about which channel the game is on.

The catch, it's pricey and the free trial is only one week long so not much time to judge for yourself. I use it a lot and would probably pay the price for it if I wasn't able to get it for free (it's included with some cable/satellite providers, if you'll have access to expressvu, you may be able to get it set up)

Thanks.

Do you know if I can get it for a month or if I need to commit to a year, 2 years etc?

 

[Discoverer]

Tentative ever-changing rankings:


1.Guerrero
2.Bichette
-----------
3.Alford
4.Tellez
5.Reid-Foley
6.Urena
7.Zeuch
8.Maese
9.Jansen
10.Gurriel
11.Greene
12.Pentecost
13.McGuire
14.Smith
15.Jones

Put the dotted line below Alford and I could get on board.

 

[zeke]

eh I love him but imo he's a lower level prospect than them. Alford isn't even keeping up with the bar set by Pompey as a prospect, really.

 

[Eyedea]

An arguable top-100 prospect for a good but not great RP? really?

2.5 fWAR KATOH+ for 2.5 years of a top 15-20 reliever? You can get that prospect back if you want by trading him at the deadline/offseason next year or after.

 

[zeke]

A+

Pompey (21-21): 317pa, 11.0b%/17.7k%, .380bip/.319avg, .152iso, 150wrc+
Alford (20-21): 656pa, 12.3b%/25.3k%, .348bip/.262avg, .142iso, 130wrc+

AA

Pompey (21-22): 275pa, 9.1bb%/14.9k%, .361bip/.325avg, .187iso, 158wrc+
Alford (22-22): 141pa, 11.3b%/17.0k%, .385bip/.325avg, .130iso, 146wrc+

 

[Discoverer]

2.5 fWAR KATOH+ for 2.5 years of a top 15-20 reliever? You can get that prospect back if you want by trading him at the deadline/offseason next year or after.

I don't think it's a completely unreasonable ask - I have my concerns about Urena - but this is a great example of why you give Howell a chance to see if he can turn things around.

 

[zeke]

2.5 fWAR KATOH+ for 2.5 years of a top 15-20 reliever? You can get that prospect back if you want by trading him at the deadline/offseason next year or after.

That's a little aggressive on Hand, imo. His war totals look top-20 last year only really because he pitched so many innings, not because he was that great during them. He's been more impressive this year but that may just be a babip thing. Projections have him in the low-3s for era/fip going forward, and about a 1.0war pace. Solid reliever but this isn't exactly Andrew Miller here I don't think.

 

[Discoverer]

A+

Pompey (21-21): 317pa, 11.0b%/17.7k%, .380bip/.319avg, .152iso, 150wrc+
Alford (20-21): 656pa, 12.3b%/25.3k%, .348bip/.262avg, .142iso, 130wrc+

AA

Pompey (21-22): 275pa, 9.1bb%/14.9k%, .361bip/.325avg, .187iso, 158wrc+
Alford (22-22): 141pa, 11.3b%/17.0k%, .385bip/.325avg, .130iso, 146wrc+

The comparison isn't a bad one by any means, but... Pompey was a Top 20-30 prospect in the league. If you think the same of Alford, then he definitely belongs in the upper tier with Bichette and Guerrero.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

A+

Pompey (21-21): 317pa, 11.0b%/17.7k%, .380bip/.319avg, .152iso, 150wrc+
Alford (20-21): 656pa, 12.3b%/25.3k%, .348bip/.262avg, .142iso, 130wrc+

AA

Pompey (21-22): 275pa, 9.1bb%/14.9k%, .361bip/.325avg, .187iso, 158wrc+
Alford (22-22): 141pa, 11.3b%/17.0k%, .385bip/.325avg, .130iso, 146wrc+

This is one of those 'scout v statline' cases.

 

[zeke]

This is one of those 'scout v statline' cases.

is it? Alford is ranked similarly as Pompey was then. Both are supremely athletic. Both have some question marks around swing and miss tendencies. Pompey showed considerably more pop at the same point.

 

[Woodman19]

Prospects Stats Update at the end of May with my hottakes:



Tentative ever-changing rankings:


1.Guerrero
2.Bichette
-----------
3.Alford
4.Tellez
5.Reid-Foley
6.Urena
7.Zeuch
8.Maese
9.Jansen
10.Gurriel
11.Greene
12.Pentecost
13.McGuire
14.Smith
15.Jones

Willing to consider the criticism of Tellez' swing mechanics yet?

 

[zeke]

The comparison isn't a bad one by any means, but... Pompey was a Top 20-30 prospect in the league. If you think the same of Alford, then he definitely belongs in the upper tier with Bichette and Guerrero.

I mentioned it before, but what Bichette is doing isn't just "Top-30 prospect" type stuff.


speaking of Bo, here's a nice article from fangraphs today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blue-jays-prospect-bo-bichette-is-noisily-bashing-baseballs/

 

[zeke]

Willing to consider the criticism of Tellez' swing mechanics yet?

always was, always am.

the issue is that people don't seem to think prospects on other teams have flaws too.

 

[nilan30]

Thanks.

Do you know if I can get it for a month or if I need to commit to a year, 2 years etc?

Never mind, I just ordered it. Can cancel at any time. Just watched Jays in 30. At least I know I can watch on my phone if all else fails.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

is it? Alford is ranked similarly as Pompey was then. Both are supremely athletic. Both have some question marks around swing and miss tendencies. Pompey showed considerably more pop at the same point.

Yes, it most certainly is. Scouts have consistently liked Alford far more in terms of ceiling. I've personally spoken to scouts why actually think (and have thought prior to the last two years) that Dalton's ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder. I of course disagreed, however, Alford is far more heralded. Right or wrong.

 

[Woodman19]

always was, always am.

the issue is that people don't seem to think prospects on other teams have flaws too.

Oh absolutely, but when the flaw is something that will prevent a batter from hitting. It's a little more pronounced than merely limiting full potential.