Best 19 year old/2nd season/Draft year +2 season

[daver]

I am wondering how Bedard will measure up against his all-time peers as a prospect in his 2nd season. He was indisputably on a statistical level that very few reached in the CHL (McDavid, Crosby, Mario, Wayne).

The 2nd seasons by those players are arguably the four greatest seasons by 2nd year forwards who were in their "19 year old season".

Are there any other notable "19 year old, 2nd seasons" by forwards?

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[carjackmalone]

Pierre Larouche

 

[Acallabeth]

19-year-old season and 2nd seasons are different things, for example, Lemieux was 20 for his sophomore season because of his October birthday.

Stamkos co-won the Rocket and had 95 points in his 2nd year (was 19 for most of it).

 

[Albatros]

Connor McDavid scored 98 points before his 20th birthday. Jimmy Carson did 186, including 107 in his second season.

 

[daver]

Connor McDavid scored 98 points before his 20th birthday. Jimmy Carson did 186, including 107 in his second season.

Good for 8th in scoring. Clearly behind McDavid's 2nd season, which is the point of the OP if that needed clarifying.

Wayne wasn't drafted and Mario was 20 by the time his 2nd season started so I needed to throw extra qualification into the OP.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Gretzky, Crosby, McDavid, Carson, Stamkos.

Lemieux's age 19 season was his rookie year so wouldn't qualify. Same with Trottier. You're already down to 16th in scoring (21 team league) once you get down to Hawerchuk (91 points).

With all due respect, this is a pretty easy "just look up stats" category.

 

[filinski77]

Top-5 19 year old seasons based on dominance vs. peers imo:

	Player	Point rank	Goal rank	Points	10th points	% diff	Goals	10th Goals	% diff
1​	Gretzky	1st	4th	164​	103​	59%​	55​	48​	15%​
2​	McDavid	1st	25th	100​	75​	33%​	30​	34​	-12%​
3​	Crosby	1st	16th	120​	95​	26%​	36​	40​	-10%​
4​	Stamkos	5th	1st	95​	86​	10%​	51​	35​	46%​
5​	Carson	8th	3rd	107​	106​	1%​	55​	48​	15%​

Interesting discussion to be had: Stamkos 19 year-old season should 100% be considered in the same discussion as McDavid/Crosby. Yes only 10% ahead of 10th in points (vs 33 and 26% for the other 2), but the guy won the rocket and beat 10th place by 46% (as opposed to being decently behind 10th in the case of Crosby and McDavid).

 

[MadLuke]

Stamkos 19 year-old season should 100% be considered in the same discussion as McDavid/Crosby.

Never thought about it like that..... Second half of his first season and the worlds that summer were also quite good for Stamkos. But


Points

1.	Henrik Sedin* • VAN	112
2.	Sidney Crosby • PIT	109
	Alex Ovechkin • WSH	109
4.	Nicklas Bäckström • WSH	101
5.	Steven Stamkos • TBL	95

vs

Points

1.	Sidney Crosby • PIT	120
2.	Joe Thornton • SJS	114
3.	Vincent Lecavalier • TBL	108
4.	Dany Heatley • OTT	105
5.	Martin St. Louis* • TBL	102

or
Points

1.	Connor McDavid • EDM	100
2.	Sidney Crosby • PIT	89
	Patrick Kane • CHI	89
4.	Nicklas Bäckström • WSH	86
5.	Nikita Kucherov • TBL	85
	Brad Marchand • BOS	85

Seem a bit much, the argument that he was generated has much offense for Tampa because of more goals, not so sure, McDavid powerplay also had a more impressive scoring rate relative to the league.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

#15 on ice gf/60 for stamkos at even strenght that year, despite playing with St-Louis

McDavid was significantly more impressive here:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

With Pat Maroon and young Draisaitl

- Gretzky won the Hart during his second pro season as a young 19th year old (finished the year 19 and 70 days) that was his draft +2 I imagine? or just +1, he just went pro.
- Dale Hawerhuck scored 40 goals, 91 points

 

[daver]

Top-5 19 year old seasons based on dominance vs. peers imo:

	Player	Point rank	Goal rank	Points	10th points	% diff	Goals	10th Goals	% diff
1​	Gretzky	1st	4th	164​	103​	59%​	55​	48​	15%​
2​	McDavid	1st	25th	100​	75​	33%​	30​	34​	-12%​
3​	Crosby	1st	16th	120​	95​	26%​	36​	40​	-10%​
4​	Stamkos	5th	1st	95​	86​	10%​	51​	35​	46%​
5​	Carson	8th	3rd	107​	106​	1%​	55​	48​	15%​

Interesting discussion to be had: Stamkos 19 year-old season should 100% be considered in the same discussion as McDavid/Crosby. Yes only 10% ahead of 10th in points (vs 33 and 26% for the other 2), but the guy won the rocket and beat 10th place by 46% (as opposed to being decently behind 10th in the case of Crosby and McDavid).

The OP was intended to include Mario who should fit in at least above Stamkos.

 

[MadLuke]

The OP was intended to include Mario who should fit in at least above Stamkos.

A bit all over the place, but he finish the message with a clear:
Are there any other notable "19 year old, 2nd seasons" by forwards?

Which exclude Mario, he was over 20 during the first games of his second season, as an older October player.

 

[daver]

A bit all over the place, but he finish the message with a clear:
Are there any other notable "19 year old, 2nd seasons" by forwards?

Which exclude Mario, he was over 20 during the first games of his second season, as an older October player.

Sure, is there a clearer term to describe the 2nd season by a player who was drafted at age 18 and started their NHL career in the year they were drafted?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Last season, the highest placing D+1, D+2, D+3 was Wyatt Johnston (D+3) who was 74th in the League with 65 points in 82 games. Bedard not too far behind at 83rd with 61 points in 68 games.

2022-23 was Stutzle (D+3) who was 19th with 90 points in 78 games. Took a step back the next year. Matt Beniers (D+2) was 99th with 57 points in 80 games. Also took a step back the next year.

2021-22 was Zegras (D+3), at 78th with 61 points in 75 games. Hasn't been that good since. Stutzle at 93rd with 58 points in 79 games, and then the best season was probably J. Hughes at 100th with 56 points in just 49 games.

Kind of interesting but it's been harder for young players to make a big splash right off the jump right now. Seven years ago you had like Matt Barzal reach 13th in points and Mikko Rantanen reach 18th in points in a D+3. Year before that Draisaitl was 8th in points in his D+3 with Matthews tying for 2nd in goals and Laine finishing 7th in goals in their D+1 and McDavid winning the Art Ross in D+2.

 

[MadLuke]

Sure, is there a clearer term to describe the 2nd season by a player who was drafted at age 18 and started their NHL career in the year they were drafted?

That line seem really clear.

But what you describe exclude Mario and Wayne that you list as example, thus the confusion.

Kind of interesting but it's been harder for young players to make a big splash right off the jump right now.

Depending on when that phenomenon start, can wonder if Covid slowed youth development (at a critical time for their nhl 18-19 years old start) ?

 

[WarriorofTime]

He was indisputably on a statistical level that very few reached in the CHL (McDavid, Crosby, Mario, Wayne).

The 2nd seasons by those players are arguably the four greatest seasons by 2nd year forwards who were in their "19 year old season".

Somewhat interesting that for Crosby, Age 19 season was his high watermark season in his career (I'll assume he doesn't hit 120 this year or any subsequent year but I guess you never know). Just one other qualifying season with a better PPG (66 points in 41 games), which even with a full season is not a slam dunk as assuming a full 82 games that's 54 more points, in 41 games that's 1.32 PPG which is a 108 point pace.

Lemieux's Age 19 season was his 10th highest career total.
Gretzky's Age 19 season was his 12th highest career total.
McDavid's Age 19 season was his 9th highest career total, and it's pretty likely he has a couple more to push this down further.

 

[daver]

Depending on when that phenomenon start, can wonder if Covid slowed youth development (at a critical time for their nhl 18-19 years old start) ?

Wayne is probably the starting point for this phenomenon. As for Bedard, it should be pretty easy to compare him McDavid and Crosby given they showed up in the last 20 years when 18 year old superstars have been prepared to step in right away.

 

[MadLuke]

interesting ... Just one other qualifying season with a better PPG (66 points in 41 games),

Like Selanne and others people that had their first 2 seasons before 1995, scoring went down fast during Crosby career. (versus up a lot during McDavid), making it not that much interesting.

Lemieux and Gretzky were rookie, and I mean are we talking about McDavid 45 games rookie season as a comparable for Crosby second full season in the nhl ? Obviously that could be McDavid lowest total even if he play until 39, would that mean he was not a super good 19 years old like Crosby was ?

Not saying young Crosby was not better than them necessarily, but it does not feel that fair of comparable.

Player	Seasons	Season length	game played	points	reference	adjusted points]	adjusted ppg
Sidney Crosby	20132014​	82​	80​	104​	70.7​	141.9​	1.77​
Sidney Crosby	20162017​	82​	75​	89​	64.7​	132.7​	1.77​
Sidney Crosby	20092010​	82​	81​	109​	73.4​	143.3​	1.77​
Sidney Crosby	20062007​	82​	79​	120​	83.9​	138​	1.75​
Sidney Crosby	20082009​	82​	77​	103​	76.9​	129.2​	1.68​
Sidney Crosby	20152016​	82​	80​	85​	65.2​	125.8​	1.57​

I am not sure we can sy that 2007 was peak production, per games it could be a too close to call versus 2010, 2014, 2017.

Wayne is probably the starting point for this phenomenon. As for Bedard, it should be pretty easy to compare him McDavid and Crosby given they showed up in the last 20 years when 18 year old superstars have been prepared to step in right away.

I imagine you are not quoting the right message here, yes I fully agree that we should include Wayne 19 years old season here, for what seem to be the spirit of the conversation of how good of a career we can expect from Bedard looking at what other great did at that age, which is why I am not sure you are adding all those extra criteria for it to be their second nhl season.....

 

[WarriorofTime]

Depending on when that phenomenon start, can wonder if Covid slowed youth development (at a critical time for their nhl 18-19 years old start) ?

That's a good point. Being a teenager at COVID made it tougher to get ice time, seasons being cancelled, shutdowns, etc.

Easier for players already established to be getting ice time with the NHL still running in a modified fashion, and likely having more means to access private facilities. Perhaps this has created a phenmenon where it's been a bit easier for prime-aged players to hold off younger guys than expected.

Also just harder to say in general as some Drafts can always just be a bit weaker....but it's also sort of harder to believe that Jeff Skinner (38th in points his Age 18 D+1) was just like better at the time than everyone from the last six or seven drafts. I was mostly just looking to see how Bedard 'tracks' compared to other U23, 24 type players and it's hard to find anyone that tracks as good until you get into the more speculative (i.e., not yet Drafted) players.

 

[daver]

I imagine you are not quoting the right message here, yes I fully agree that we should include Wayne 19 years old season here, for what seem to be the spirit of the conversation of how good of a career we can expect from Bedard looking at what other great did at that age, which is why I am not sure you are adding all those extra criteria for it to be their second nhl season.....

I meant that it an 18 year old playing the NHL, let alone given the opportunity to shine, wasn't that prevalent until the last 40 years.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Like Selanne and others people that had their first 2 seasons before 1995, scoring went down fast during Crosby career. (versus up a lot during McDavid), making it not that much interesting.

Lemieux and Gretzky were rookie, and I mean are we talking about McDadvid 45 games rookie season as a comparable for Crosby ?

Not saying young Crosby was not better than them necessarily, but it does not feel that fair of comparable.

Player	Seasons	Season length	game played	points	reference	adjusted points]	adjusted ppg
Sidney Crosby	20132014​	82​	80​	104​	70.7​	141.9​	1.77​
Sidney Crosby	20162017​	82​	75​	89​	64.7​	132.7​	1.77​
Sidney Crosby	20092010​	82​	81​	109​	73.4​	143.3​	1.77​
Sidney Crosby	20062007​	82​	79​	120​	83.9​	138​	1.75​
Sidney Crosby	20082009​	82​	77​	103​	76.9​	129.2​	1.68​
Sidney Crosby	20152016​	82​	80​	85​	65.2​	125.8​	1.57​

I am not sure we can sy that 2007 was peak production, per games it could be a too close to call versus 2010, 2014, 2017.

I should probably also consider 2012-13 season as a qualifier. It's under 40 games, but the season itself was only 48 games, so 36/48 is 75 % of eligible games. But I guess that's just semantics. That one was (slightly) higher PPG than 2006-07.

 

[MadLuke]

But I guess that's just semantics. That one was (slightly) higher PPG than 2006-07.

Yes, slighty higher in absolute number, but in the lower tier of the harder to score season in nhl history.

Do we have to create some explanation about how:

2012-13 NHL (30.3% better than the average top 5 player)

1.	S. Crosby	1.556
2.	M. St. Louis*	1.250
3.	S. Stamkos	1.188
4.	P. Kane	1.170
5.	A. Ovechkin	1.167

2006-07 NHL (13.6% better than the average top 5 player)

1.	S. Crosby	1.519
2.	J. Thornton	1.390
3.	J. Iginla*	1.343
4.	V. Lecavalier	1.317
5.	J. Spezza	1.299

Crosby did not get significantly better after his 19 years old season ? Or that in fact he did, it is just that scoring got down by as much he got better ?

It is not Selanne level of extreme 92-93 season, but a bit in those vein, 2006 and 2007 scoring was significantly higher, to take Ovechking of that era, Ovechkin never really outscored 106 rookie Ovechkin by that much (by 3, 4 and record high 6 points), his 3 big Pearson season were nonetheless a clear tier above his rookie season in production, his team got much better, he himself did also by a little bit, it is just that scoring went down like a rock.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes, slighty higher in absolute number, but in the lower tier of the harder to score season in nhl history.

Do we have to create some explanation about how:

2012-13 NHL (30.3% better than the average top 5 player)

1.	S. Crosby	1.556
2.	M. St. Louis*	1.250
3.	S. Stamkos	1.188
4.	P. Kane	1.170
5.	A. Ovechkin	1.167

2006-07 NHL (13.6% better than the average top 5 player)

1.	S. Crosby	1.519
2.	J. Thornton	1.390
3.	J. Iginla*	1.343
4.	V. Lecavalier	1.317
5.	J. Spezza	1.299

Crosby did not get significantly better after his 19 years old season ? Or that in fact he did, it is just that scoring got down by as much he got better ?

It is not Selanne level of extreme 92-93 season, but a bit in those vein, 2006 and 2007 scoring was significantly higher, to take Ovechking of that era, Ovechkin never really outscored 106 rookie Ovechkin by that much (by 6 points), his 3 big season were nonetheless a clear tier above his rookie season in production, his team got much better, he himself did also by a little bit, it is just that scoring went down like a rock.

Yes, I agree that Crosby didn't peak as a player in 2006-07, just interesting how it was his high watermark, and even with adjusted scoring, not so drastically behind other seasons, compared to the other named players in Daver's OP.

Crosby's career looks a lot more "normal" for a player of his level without the missed time, probable 3-peat of Art Rosses from 2010-11 through 2012-13 (preceding the actual one in 2013-14, to make a 4-peat), with 5 career Art Rosses (the "early" one and then running the trophy for a bit there in his prime). That's kind of what makes Crosby interesting. He wasn't *really* a player whose career was decimated by injuries based on body of work on the whole, by the timing of the injuries did occur at what likely should have been his peak seasons. It's hard to vault him too much with the "what if?" because there are still so many mostly healthy seasons in there to work with, but it likely helps the Art Ross significantly which is a bit of a golden crown type individual trophy for offensive forwards.

But I suppose no need for another "what if..." Crosby thread. Then again, I dunno what this thread is if not a Crosby thread. The others mentioned stand out more on their own as all time point producers without need for bracketing their Age 19 season as much.

 

[filinski77]

The OP was intended to include Mario who should fit in at least above Stamkos.

Thread title + body confusing. But yes, if you include Mario's 2nd season (his 20 year old season), then yes he fits in above Stamkos/Crosby/McDavid imo and is the 2nd best.

 

[daver]

Thread title + body confusing. But yes, if you include Mario's 2nd season (his 20 year old season), then yes he fits in above Stamkos/Crosby/McDavid imo and is the 2nd best.

I don't think Mario was clearly above Crosby/McDavid in his 2nd season, if at all. Pretty close between the three IMO.

 

[Crosby2010]

I don't think Mario was clearly above Crosby/McDavid in his 2nd season, if at all. Pretty close between the three IMO.

Mario and Crosby were similar

 

[filinski77]

I don't think Mario was clearly above Crosby/McDavid in his 2nd season, if at all. Pretty close between the three IMO.

Disagree.

	Vs 10th points	Vs 10th goals
Lemieux	34%​	4%​
McDavid	33%​	-12%​
Crosby	26%​	-10%​

Lemieux was about equal to McDavid at overall point generation, and definitely better than Crosby was.

The difference maker is the goal-scoring. Lemieux was 7th in goals (would have been 4th most likely if not for Gretzky's all-time season).

If not for Gretzky putting up the GOAT point season, Lemieux would have won the Ross 141 to 123 over Bossy, and still have been a much better goal-scorer than McDavid/Crosby.

Gretzky	215​
Lemieux	141​
Coffey	138​
Kurri	131​
Bossy	123​