Best 19 year old/2nd season/Draft year +2 season

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
26,453
6,197
Visit site
Disagree.

Vs 10th pointsVs 10th goals
Lemieux
34%​
4%​
McDavid
33%​
-12%​
Crosby
26%​
-10%​

Lemieux was about equal to McDavid at overall point generation, and definitely better than Crosby was.

The difference maker is the goal-scoring. Lemieux was 7th in goals (would have been 4th most likely if not for Gretzky's all-time season).

If not for Gretzky putting up the GOAT point season, Lemieux would have won the Ross 141 to 123 over Bossy, and still have been a much better goal-scorer than McDavid/Crosby.

Gretzky
215​
Lemieux
141​
Coffey
138​
Kurri
131​
Bossy
123​

A little unfair to use 10th place in a 30 team to 10th place in a 21 team league isn't it?

PPG-wise, it is very close.

Mario was 28% ahead of 10th place
Crosby was 28% ahead of 10th place
McDavid was 23% ahead of 10th place

Mario was 60% ahead of 25th place
Crosby was 46% ahead of 25th place
McDavid was 44% ahead of 25th place

Mario was 80% ahead of 50th place
Crosby was 69% ahead of 50th place
McDavid was 65% ahead of 50th place


I think it's fair to assume that there were more 1st line/Top 6 level players in the 30 team league. How you can adjust for that gets tricky but I think it's reasonable to place them on the same tier (points-wise).

This should not be anything surprising since both Crosby and McDavid were arguably better in their rookie campaigns.
 

MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
10,658
6,170
I don't think Mario was clearly above Crosby/McDavid in his 2nd season, if at all. Pretty close between the three IMO.
It is close, Lemieux did outscore Hawerchuck the 10th scorer by 34%, versus 26.3% versus Briere for Crosby and McDavid Tarasenko by 33%.

Oilers and Penguins made the playoff, in a era that it was rough and Lemieux did not, which show how bad the Pens were maybe more than him having less of a transforming season, the pens went from winning 16 to 24 to then 34 in Mario first 2 years, that huge.

In term of production, pretty pretty close, maybe a McDavid-Lemieux-Crosby style of order if you need to choose one, but Crosby-Lemieux probably a virtual tie:

playersseasonSeason LengthGame playedPointsElite Can average pointsadjusted points
Connor McDavid
20162017​
82​
82​
100​
64.7​
149.1​
Mario Lemieux
19851986​
80​
79​
141​
98.9​
141​
Sidney Crosby
20062007​
82​
79​
120​
83.9​
138​

In term of team improvement, from the team pre-draft to their second years

McDavid: .378->.427->.628
Lemieux: .238->.331->.475
Crosby.: .354->.354->.640 (and the 06 .354 was with the 3 pts games system....)


Crosby seem to have the biggest jump but Malkin-Staal arrived, Recchi-Scuderi played all the game, Fleury was getting better was still really young in 06, which more than compensate for loosing Palfy half a season, Leclair, etc..

Lemieux could have had the worst team improvement, but also had not only the worst team as a starting point but arguably worst management, the modern Pens had Lemieux involved, for all the Oilers joke, they were a modern serious hockey team that spent to the maximum of the cap, the 80s worst nhl teams were a bit Mickey mousy compared to that.
 

filinski77

Registered User
Feb 12, 2017
2,688
4,422
A little unfair to use 10th place in a 30 team to 10th place in a 21 team league isn't it?

PPG-wise, it is very close.

Mario was 28% ahead of 10th place
Crosby was 28% ahead of 10th place
McDavid was 23% ahead of 10th place

Mario was 60% ahead of 25th place
Crosby was 46% ahead of 25th place
McDavid was 44% ahead of 25th place

Mario was 80% ahead of 50th place
Crosby was 69% ahead of 50th place
McDavid was 65% ahead of 50th place


I think it's fair to assume that there were more 1st line/Top 6 level players in the 30 team league. How you can adjust for that gets tricky but I think it's reasonable to place them on the same tier (points-wise).

This should not be anything surprising since both Crosby and McDavid were arguably better in their rookie campaigns.
So what you’re showing me is that points relative to peers, Lemieux was ahead (based on the numbers you provided). So say we adjust for league size (which I agree with, but unsure of the extent), let’s call points a wash.

Go to goalscoring now, where no way you can twist it, Lemieux was vastly superior. That gives him the edge and why I ranked his season ahead.
 

Dissonance Jr

Registered User
Oct 6, 2017
698
1,441
Bobby Smith’s sophomore season was shortened by injuries, but he scored at a 108-point pace — which would’ve been good for 4th in the NHL if he’d stayed healthy — and he was a huge factor in the North Stars going from bottom feeder to playoff team.

It was Gretzky’s first year in the NHL so no one was paying close attention but he was pretty impressive as a 19-year-old.
 

Ad

Ad

Ad