Horse Racing: BELMONT dates move to AQUEDUCT; SARATOGA opens July 11

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

KENTUCKY OAKS

What: Grade I. A full field of 14 is expected (two also eligibles are on the waiting list pending any defections].
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
When: Friday, May 03, 2019, Race 11
Post time: 6:12 pm Eastern Time
Who: 3-year-old fillies who made the cut via the 'Win and You're In" series.
Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $1,250,000 [$705,520 to the winner]
Television: NBCSN's coverage starts at 12:00 pm ET and lasts through 6:30 p.m. ET. TVG will have additional exposure.
History: Inaugurated in 1875, this is the 145th running. Along with the Kentucky Derby, it is the oldest consecutively held sporting event in America.
Note: Bellafina will be bet and bet heavy but I expect she will be tested and will not be surprised to see another filly get the lilies. This should be a hotly contested race. I will be pulling for the "ladies' man" Larry Jones as this is his specialty. My pick is Restless Rider but that post could be a challenge.
Note: If Dunbar Road draws in, Jose Ortiz will ride and Tyler Gaffalione will replace him on Serengeti Empress.​

.

[TR][TH]PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Out for a Spin (VA)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	121	Dallas Stewart	15/1
2	Chocolate Kisses (KY)	Julien R. Leparoux	121	Mark E. Casse	20/1
3	Lady Apple (KY)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	121	Steven M. Asmussen	20/1
4	Bellafina (KY)	Flavien Prat	121	Simon Callaghan	2/1
5	Flor de La Mar (KY)	Joel Rosario	121	Bob Baffert	20/1
6	Positive Spirit (KY)	Manuel Franco	121	Rodolphe Brisset	30/1
7	Jaywalk (KY)	Javier Castellano	121	John C. Servis	8/1
8	Motion Emotion (KY)	Mike E. Smith	121	Thomas L. Van Berg	15/1
9	Liora (KY)	Channing Hill	121	Wayne M. Catalano	20/1
10	Champagne Anyone (KY)	Chris Landeros	121	Ian R. Wilkes	6/1
11	Jeltrin (KY)	Luis Saez	121	Alexis Delgado	15/1
12	Street Band (KY)	Sophie Doyle	121	J. Larry Jones	15/1
13	Serengeti Empress (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	121	Thomas M. Amoss	8/1
14	Restless Rider (KY)	Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.	121	Kenneth G. McPeek	6/1
AE/15	Dunbar Road (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	121	Chad C. Brown	5/1
AE/16	Point of Honor (KY)	John R. Velazquez	121	George Weaver	20/1

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The card is below. Entries can be located by clicking on the race number. Roughly 150 horses will be vying for $3,500,000 in one day.

[TR][TH]Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post (ET)
Race 1	$50,000	Starter Allowance	1 Mile	Turf	10	10:30 AM
Race 2	$109,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	7	10:58 AM
Race 3	$103,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	7 Furlongs	Dirt	9	11:26 AM
Race 4	$100,000	Maiden Special Weight	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	19	11:59 AM
Race 5	$250,000	Eight Belles S. presented by Derby City Gaming	7 Furlongs	Dirt	9	12:35 PM
Race 6	$250,000	Edgewood S. presented by Forcht Bank	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	7	1:17 PM
Race 7	$400,000	Alysheba S. presented by Sentient Jet	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	11	2:00 PM
Race 8	$500,000	La Troienne S. presented by Inside Access from Chase	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	10	2:53 PM
Race 9	$106,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	7 Furlongs	Dirt	16	3:53 PM
Race 10	$250,000	Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. presented by MassMutual	5 1/2 Furlongs	Turf	9	5:04 PM
Race 11	$1,250,000	Longines Kentucky Oaks	1 1/8 Miles	Dirt	16	6:12 PM
Race 12	$103,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	12	6:48 PM
Race 13	$100,000	Maiden Special Weight	6 Furlongs	Dirt	13	7:23 PM

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

A running post as the entries are announced. This will be updated tonight. The numbers have changed in some instances since Omaha Beach was scratched the following day.

1. War of Will -- Tyler Gaffalione (The dreaded post, damn it! He better be near the lead or he is doomed.)
2. Tax -- Junior Alvarado (Oh brother. Danny Gargan should be happy. We'll see.)
3. By My Standards -- Gabriel Saez (The horse has trained exceptionally this week)
4. Gray Magician -- Drayden Van Dyke -- (Nothing exceptional about this horse).
5. Improbable -- Irad Ortiz, Jr. -- Baffert -- (I think this is the best of Baffert's trio)

6. Vekoma -- Javier Castellano -- (Got a good trip in his last race, that will be tough to duplicate)
7. Maximum Security -- Luis Saez (This colt could love a wet track. A dream trip could result in catch me if you can. Got much pub in Florida, 4-for-4 at Gulf. Now he tries a different track for the first time.)
8. Tacitus -- Jose Ortiz (As good as spot as exists).
9. Plus Que Parfait -- Ricardo Santana, Jr.(Had to go to Dubai to be entered. Needs a miracle here.)
10. Cutting Humor -- Corey Lanerie (If Lanerie wins the Derby it could be the feel good sports story in any sport in the last year. He was also the last rider assigned to a colt.)

11. Haikal -- Rajiv Maragh -- (Could be a surprise pick but would be difficult to use as the winner)
12. Omaha Beach -- Mike Smith (Running on all cylinders. Would love a wet track. Best big money rider in the biz. The likely favorite. The second-to-last entry to be issued a post and an ideal spot at that with little speed to challenge him. The 12 post has not won a Derby since 1971 but that is more coincidental than tactical.)
13. Code of Honor -- John Velazquez -- (Many seem down on him but I am not)
14. Win Win Win -- Julian Pimentel -- (First-time Derby rider could be an issue. Some like his chances in exotics).
15. Master Fencer -- Julien Leparoux (The horse comes from Japan and lands in the first post of the auxiliary gate.)

16. Game Winner -- Joel Rosario -- Baffert -- Was the top or second pick for many as the new year started for many.
17. Roadster -- Florent Geroux -- Baffert (The post is 0-for-40 in the Kentucky Derby)
18. Long Range Toddy -- Jon Court (The oldest rider in the field)
19. Spinoff -- Manny Franco (The youngest jockey in the field)
20. Country House -- Flavien Prat -- (Bad post, will have to overcome much).

AE. Bodexpress -- Chris Landeros (A rider switch if entered though there needs to be a defection)

The order was announced as follows via pills being drawn...
11
2
14
10
13
1
15
20
19
8
------------
7
17
18
9
16
5
6
4
12
3

 

[Preds Partisan]

My HVAC guy told me today to put Win Win Win in all my exotics. Said the horse hasn't had a chance to run its best race yet. Never argue with an HVAC guy's horse racing expertise.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

My HVAC guy told me today to put Win Win Win in all my exotics. Said the horse hasn't had a chance to run its best race yet. Never argue with an HVAC guy's horse racing expertise.

It was suggested by two people I know who said use the horse. The rider is in his first Derby. It is tough to win unless he has the horse as the expression follows. Max Sec'y seems to be a popular choice, too, among those of whom I spoke.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

April 30, 2019

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Corey Lanerie rode a natural hat trick on today's card (Tuesday). Lanerie leads the meet, through two racing days, with four wins and marks 50%/88% (8 4-2-1 record). One of the wins was the jockey's 1,000th specifically at the track.
• Tyler Gaffalione is winless through 11 starts.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Velazquez rides in England on May 1
John Velazquez, who has a mount in the Kentucky Derby, will ride Lady Pauline, in her second start in a local prep for Royal Ascot's Queen Mary Stakes (G2). Wesley Ward, wo trains, has entered her in a 2-year-old trial run May 1 at Ascot with post time 9:15 a.m. ET.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

May 1, 2019

Ascot (England):

• Lady Pauline (John Velazquez/Wesley Ward), who won her maiden race, placed. Johnny V. said she may have been tired due to the trip. In any event, back to the drawing board for her next race.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Race 9: A Laurel shipper won the finale at 27-to-1. Angel Suarez/Jeremiah O'Dwyer, the winning connections. Corey Lanerie rode another 27-to-1 shot to a place spot.
• Corey Lanerie almost always does well when riding in Kentucky. He is 13 5-6-1 (38%/92%) at the meet.

Tampa Bay Downs (Tampa Bay):

• Handle: Just under $3 million for a Wednesday card. One of the few major track tracks operating in what will be a busy week nationwide and internationally.
• Meet leaders: Samy Camacho (123 wins) among riders and Gerald Bennett (65 wins) among trainers. Both have comfortable leads.

 

[Preds Partisan]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Which means Bodexpress draws in. Gulfstream connections get the rush of entering.

Baffert could have the three shortest prices on the board.

Maximum Security likes a wet track.

 

[John Price]

 

[bukwas]

I'll keep an eye on how the M/L on War Of Will holds up. I'd take close to that action.
That last trip in the Louisiana Derby can be forgiven. That little hind quarter kickout leaving the gate kept War Of Will from gaining his preferred spot just off the lead and Mr. Money did a great job of keeping him from getting there on the outside while Calhouns other entry and the eventual winner By My Standards held position to keep him from getting an inside track to the leaders. After a couple failed attempts to get up he just didn't have the reserves to kick in the stretch. The rail should keep him out of traffic problems and Tax will go early which i think will help him.

Will be some big exotics out of this race.

 

[GKJ]

Not just a huge favorite is out of the race, but that also moves everyone over one spot from the auxiliary gate.

My HVAC guy told me today to put Win Win Win in all my exotics. Said the horse hasn't had a chance to run its best race yet. Never argue with an HVAC guy's horse racing expertise.

Sound philosophy, but the Kentucky Derby isn't necessarily the race you're counting on getting the best possible race with so many horses on the track.

 

[Mr.Krinkle]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the last time a M/L fav was scratched was I Want Revenge in '09 right? Which lead to Mine That Bird's monumental upset, granted that was the day of the race and not the week leading up to it, still wonder if there's a chance for a serious upset?

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the last time a M/L fav was scratched was I Want Revenge in '09 right? Which lead to Mine That Bird's monumental upset, granted that was the day of the race and not the week leading up to it, still wonder if there's a chance for a serious upset?

That was an oddity. Mine that Bird caught everyone by surprise including race caller Tom Durkin. Could we see a repeat? I am not sold on any of the top horses. Nothing would surprise me, whether chalk wins or there is an upset but very unlikely it is a repeat of what Borel did or Mike Smith with Giacomo.

Eskendereya was the expected m/l favorite in 2010 but scratched about a week prior to the Derby. The connections were John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher, both of whom were winless in their Derby careers. Pletcher won the Derby that year with Super Saver. Velazquez won the Derby the next year on Animal Kingdom, who was a bomber, but only because Robby Albarado, scheduled to ride, was injured a day or two prior to the KY Derby.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Right about now Kenny McPeek is regretting not having Signalman among the also eligible. With only one also eligible on the original list (Bodexpress who replaced Omaha Beach), if Haikal is scratched the field will be reduced to 19 runners.



Just a point of emphasis, especially for those unfamiliar, with scratches the numbers horses wear will not always match the post positions. As of now, Bodexpress will wear the rarely used #21 but come out of the #20 starting gate. The confirmed list will be released by Friday.

 

[Orr Fourever]

OB wasn't winning the Derby anyway. Tax is winning. That's what I keep telling myself anyway... Hahahahaha

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

OB wasn't winning the Derby anyway. Tax is winning. That's what I keep telling myself anyway... Hahahahaha

It would be a headline writer's dream. Let me start: Tax Day is May 4.

 

[John Price]

when did Mike start working at 10 am

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

May 2, 2019...

• Wesley Ward is 31% (wins) and 60% (top 3) in 2019. As always, keep an eye on his 2-year-olds. He has hit the board with 13 of his most recent 18 starters.
• Klaravich Stables, one of the top ownership groups in North America, was a perfect 3-for-3 today with two wins at Belmont and one at Churchill. The group is 49 15-9-11 (31%/71%) in 2019.

Aqueduct (New York):

• Javier Castellano won four times and placed once with six starters. He is 22% in 2019 which is excellent, even for him, but had not won since April 18.
• Wesley Ward won two of the three races in which he entered. Both of his wins were with Joe Bravo on board.
• Joe Bravo was 5 2-2-1 including winning the opening race. It was his first multiple win day since December 1, 2018.
• Race 1: A rarity in that the card -- any card -- had the biggest purse of the day in the opener. This $100,000 race featured American Pharaoh's first-time starter Sweet Melania. However, the favorite in the small field was the victor. keep an eye on Aurelia Garland (Joe Bravo/Wesley Ward) as she impressed mightily in her debut.

​

• Race 6: Surge Pricing (Javier Castellano/Chad Brown) was cold on the board, despite the strong connections including owner Klaravich Stables, but the first-timer impressed with the rider winning a fourth time on the card.
• Race 9: A 15-to-1 shot won and ridden by Luis Reyes who picked up the mount for Manny Franco who likely had to catch a flight to Kentucky. The only first-time starter in the deep field was ridden by Joe Bravo who placed with a 20-to-1 shot.
• Manny Franco, who won both meets earlier this year in New York, is an awful 28 2-4-6 this meet.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Race 2: Jeremy Rose improved to 11 4-0-0 (36%) in 2019 after a win. It was his first ride this year outside the state of Pennsylvania.
• Race 6: What was termed a "slight weather delayed" involved what appeared to be lightning and darkness due to heavy rains which eventually canceled the remainder of the card.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Track conditions: Muddy. There were shadows later in the day which was evidence of the sun trying to appear. Rains seemed to be in play prior to race day.
• Card: Five of the 11 races had purses $100,000 or more.
• Race 1: Lady Delaware (John Velazquez/Wesley Ward), a daughter to American Pharoah, was off the board at 4-to-5.
• Race 8: A 35-to-1 shot wired the field with rider James Graham picking up his second victory of the day.
• Race 10: A Little Bit Me (John Velazquez/Richard Baltas) pulled a shocker in the $125,000 Unbridled Sidney and paid $50 after being sent off 24-to-1 and the third highest odds on the board. Johnny V. doesn't bring home too many bombs but he doesn't ride much besides Cadillacs. The jockey-trainer combo is a rarity since Baltas usually enters in California. The $.50 Pick 3 paid over $6,000.

​

• Race 11: The finale was won the favorite but the payouts were enormous. The $.50 Pick 4 paid over $26,000. The $.50 Pick 5 over $66,000. The $.20 Pick 6 also paid over $66,000. There should be sizeable payouts the next couple of days at the track, especially Saturday.
• Leaders at the meet: Corey Lanerie is 14 5-6-2 (36%/93%) and toed for the meet lead for jockey wins with James Graham. The trainer's standings has an 8-way tie for first with two victories apiece.

Belterra (Ohio):

• Race 2: John McKee, who is from the Cincinnati area, won a race for the 2,000th time.

​

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Track conditions: Off the turf due to earlier rains.
• Edgard Zayas was 7 2-3-1 today with both wins coming for trainer Kathleen O'Connell who entered today 0-for-16 at the meet.

Oaklawn (Arkansas):

• Track conditions: Sloppy.
• Race 6: It took a long time to determine the winner of this race.
• Updated meet leaders: The meet has two days remaining. Ricardo Santana, Jr. (73 wins) has a 3-win lead over David Cohen among riders. The trainer's meet is dominated by Steve Asmussen.

Among the tracks opening this weekend:

May 3: Arlington, Canterbury, Prairie Meadows, Sunray Park

May 4: Delaware, Hastings, Louisiana Downs, Monmouth​

In a separate note, Roger Laurin sends out a horse tomorrow (Friday) for the first time since September. The horse is entered at Gulfstream. Laurin is in his mid-80s and is the son to Lucien Laurin who trained Secretariat.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Haikal will scratch from the Kentucky Derby.

Mike Smith will replace Corey Lanerie on Cutting Humor. It is a business but that is tough news for Lanerie who was the last official jockey to be named on one of the original 20 to be entered.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

KENTUCKY DERBY

What: Grade I. The first leg of the Triple Crown.
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
When: Saturday, May 04, 2019, Race 12
Post time: 6:50 pm Eastern Time
Who: 3-year-olds who made the cut via the 'Win and You're In" series. 40 points was needed the get into the Derby, the most ever since the format was employed.
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $3,000,000
Television:

NBCSN: 12:00 pm ET through 2:30 pm ET.
NBC: 2:30 pm ET through 7:30 pm ET.
TVG will have additional exposure.​

History: Inaugurated in 1875, this is the 145th running. Along with the Kentucky Oaks, it is the oldest consecutively held sporting event in America.​

=====================================
Until the scratches are confirmed on Saturday morning...

[TR][TH]PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	War of Will (KY)	Tyler Gaffalione	126	Mark E. Casse	20/1
2	Tax (KY)	Junior Alvarado	126	Danny Gargan	20/1
3	By My Standards (KY)	Gabriel Saez	126	W. Bret Calhoun	20/1
4	Gray Magician (KY)	Drayden Van Dyke	126	Peter Miller	50/1
5	Improbable (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	126	Bob Baffert	6/1
6	Vekoma (KY)	Javier Castellano	126	George Weaver	20/1
7	Maximum Security (KY)	Luis Saez	126	Jason Servis	10/1
8	Tacitus (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	126	William I. Mott	10/1
9	Plus Que Parfait (KY)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	126	Brendan P. Walsh	30/1
10	Cutting Humor (KY)	Mike Smith	126	Todd A. Pletcher	30/1
11	Haikal (KY)	Rajiv Maragh	126	Kiaran P. McLaughlin	30/1
12	Omaha Beach (KY)	Mike E. Smith	126	Richard E. Mandella	4/1
13	Code of Honor (KY)	John R. Velazquez	126	Claude R. McGaughey III	15/1
14	Win Win Win (FL)	Julian Pimentel	126	Michael J. Trombetta	15/1
15	Master Fencer (JPN)	Julien R. Leparoux	126	Koichi Tsunoda	50/1
16	Game Winner (KY)	Joel Rosario	126	Bob Baffert	5/1
17	Roadster (KY)	Florent Geroux	126	Bob Baffert	6/1
18	Long Range Toddy (KY)	Jon Kenton Court	126	Steven M. Asmussen	30/1
19	Spinoff (KY)	Manuel Franco	126	Todd A. Pletcher	30/1
20	Country House (KY)	Flavien Prat	126	William I. Mott	30/1
21	Bodexpress (KY)	Chris Landeros	126	Gustavo Delgado	30/1

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[TBODY][TR][TH]Approximately 160 horses vying for roughly $7,000,000 in purses.

[TR][TH]Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post (ET)
Race 1	$109,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	7	10:30 AM
Race 2	$110,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	1 Mile	Dirt	7	11:01 AM
Race 3	$100,000	Maiden Special Weight	6 Furlongs	Dirt	11	11:31 AM
Race 4	$103,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	7 Furlongs	Dirt	11	12:03 PM
Race 5	$100,000	Maiden Special Weight	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	18	12:35 PM
Race 6	$500,000	Humana Distaff S.	7 Furlongs	Dirt	7	1:13 PM
Race 7	$400,000	Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.	1 Mile	Turf	10	1:55 PM
Race 8	$500,000	Churchill Downs S. presented by Twinspires.com	7 Furlongs	Dirt	12	2:45 PM
Race 9	$400,000	American Turf S. presented by Ram Trucks	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	13	3:37 PM
Race 10	$400,000	Pat Day Mile S. presented by LG and E and KU	1 Mile	Dirt	15	4:28 PM
Race 11	$1,000,000	Old Forester Turf Classic S.	1 1/8 Miles	Turf	13	5:25 PM
Race 12	$3,000,000	Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve	1 1/4 Miles	Dirt	21	6:50 PM
Race 13	$103,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	11	7:50 PM
Race 14	$100,000	Maiden Special Weight	1 1/8 Miles	Dirt	11	8:20 PM

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[John Price]

#ThrowBackFriday

 

[John Price]

 

[GKJ]

Titus O’Neal out here doing his gimmick.

 

[GKJ]

Serengeti Empress was worth the risk. Every other race horse.