Prospect Info: Bedard Topic 2

[hockeydoug]

7 of last 11 games without a point.

 

[belfour30]

7 of last 11 games without a point.

This needs to be talked about more. Fanbase is in denial rn. He's only 19 so there's plenty of time, but generational he is not.'

So we got Patrick Kane part deux. That is fine.

 

[Mrfenn92]

This needs to be talked about more. Fanbase is in denial rn. He's only 19 so there's plenty of time, but generational he is not.'

So we got Patrick Kane part deux. That is fine.

You two should dm about it

 

[Drumman44]

You guys are killing me. Running this kid out of town after 14 months?

 

[belfour30]

You guys are killing me. Running this kid out of town after 14 months?

We're not running him out of town. Seems he was overhyped. I think his season last year was good except in the goal scoring dept, but this season he seems to have regressed. His calling card was supposed to be his shot and he scored 9 goals in his first 13 games and just 16 since.

Bedard is still a very good player, but it looks like it's going to take time and teammates to get him going. He may very well be a 100 pt player one day, but as of right now he is on a 67 pt/82 pace which is even worse than last year.

Nobody is calling him a bust or anything. We just think he's not generational. And that's ok.

Honestly, if the Hawks don't get him some help soon he might want out. Has no help. As of right now I doubt that he's going to want an 8 year deal out of his ELC and he has not earned 14-15M.

 

[GIADF]

Nathan MacKinnon might be the best player in the league in the last year or so.

In his 19 year old season he had 14 goals and 24 assists in 64 games. You read that right - 38 points. A 48 point pace over 82.

It wasn’t until his age 22 season it all finally clicked.

Relax people.

 

[belfour30]

Nathan MacKinnon might be the best player in the league in the last year or so.

In his 19 year old season he had 14 goals and 24 assists in 64 games.

Relax people.

Bedard doesn't have the physical tools that MacKinnon does.

What was supposed to make Bedard great was his brain and shot. Brain has been as advertised, shot not so much.

 

[GIADF]

Bedard doesn't have the physical tools that MacKinnon does.

What was supposed to make Bedard great was his brain and shot. Brain has been as advertised, shot not so much.

How many times has he gotten a clean look and either missed the shot or not gotten a shot off?


It’s too easy for defenses to key in on him with the putrid revolving door of linemates he’s had.

 

[belfour30]

How many times has he gotten a clean look and either missed the shot or not gotten a shot off?


It’s too easy for defenses to key in on him with the putrid revolving door of linemates he’s had.

I believe this is a fair argument, tbh. Maybe he will get way better than he is now.
I just don't know if he'll ever get that kind of time on a regular basis in the NHL.

 

[Hawkaholic]

MacKinnon could arguably the best player in the NHL right now, look at his first 5 seasons in the NHL, and tell me we should talk about Bedard not being an elite NHLer. Every player is different, far too early to be even worthy of a discussion, especially with the roster we currently have.

 

[SimpleJack]

I think its fine to complain, critique, and be extra critical of Bedard right now given the standards/hype/expectations/importance. He's going through some struggles and its alright to want him to be better even this early in his career. And at the same time its also true to know, not just believe but KNOW, that its going to be OK and that even if he's not the next Crosby/McDavid he's obviously a future star in this league/has elite talent/will eventually be great.

 

[belfour30]

I think its fine to complain, critique, and be extra critical of Bedard right now given the standards/hype/expectations/importance. He's going through some struggles and its alright to want him to be better even this early in his career. And at the same time its also true to know, not just believe but KNOW, that its going to be OK and that even if he's not the next Crosby/McDavid he's obviously a future star in this league/has elite talent/will eventually be great.

This.

 

[Callidusblackhawk]

Bedard doesn't have the physical tools that MacKinnon does.

What was supposed to make Bedard great was his brain and shot. Brain has been as advertised, shot not so much.

And yet he's way better at the same age...

Bedard's goal scoring has been disappointing so far but he's also been pretty damn unlucky in that regard as well.

 

[belfour30]

And yet he's way better at the same age...

Bedard's goal scoring has been disappointing so far but he's also been pretty damn unlucky in that regard as well.

Delete, I'm dumb.
Sorry.

 

[CanadianHawks]

Bedard is second to only Toronto’s Auston Matthews with 41 individual scoring chances at five-on-five this season. - The Athletic

Shooting at 6 percent. Not really concerned.

Worst comes to worst you trade assets to get someone to help him drive play upfront. We don’t have that now, clearly.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Bedard is second to only Toronto’s Auston Matthews with 41 individual scoring chances at five-on-five this season.

And he's doing this with 4th liners on his wing. Or in the case of Reichel, an AHLer.

Bedard is doing just fine. Kyle is failing him.

Frank would remedy much of the team's problems at the moment.

 

[Giovi]

We're not running him out of town. Seems he was overhyped. I think his season last year was good except in the goal scoring dept, but this season he seems to have regressed. His calling card was supposed to be his shot and he scored 9 goals in his first 13 games and just 16 since.

Bedard is still a very good player, but it looks like it's going to take time and teammates to get him going. He may very well be a 100 pt player one day, but as of right now he is on a 67 pt/82 pace which is even worse than last year.

Nobody is calling him a bust or anything. We just think he's not generational. And that's ok.

Honestly, if the Hawks don't get him some help soon he might want out. Has no help. As of right now I doubt that he's going to want an 8 year deal out of his ELC and he has not earned 14-15M.

Last week you made multiple posts arguing the exact same points.

Then you apologized and said you're going through stuff and shouldn't be posting right now.

What changed?

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Luke Richardson doesn’t exactly coach offensive well either. His system is dump and chase, good luck producing offense from that.

 

[ello]

I still think Bedard would shine on the wing. He's clearly not naturally gifted defensively and with his size and speed combo it's always going to be an uphill battle. Why should we force all this defensive responsibility on someone who has the potential to have the highest offensive upside of any Blackhawk ever. His historic WJC run was as a winger.

Unfortunately unless we can draft a true elite 1C he's probably our best option in that spot moving forward.

 

[Malaka]

how is michkov doing comparatively?

 

[belfour30]

Last week you made multiple posts arguing the exact same points.

Then you apologized and said you're going through stuff and shouldn't be posting right now.

What changed?

DM me.

 

[WarriorofTime]

All the critique around Bedard seems glued around comparing him to ghosts. That's your problem, not mine. Just never-ending pointless squabbling about what is "generational". So if he doesn't go PPG as a 19 year old but then wins 5 Art Ross Trophies from Age 22 through 29 [not making a prediction fwiw, just more to that "MacKinnon" point], is he "generational" again? Who cares. Has anyone ever actually looked around at the players that are Bedard's contemporaries in terms of being similar in age? Which of them is hitting the ground running and getting 100 points by their second year after being drafted? Perhaps the circumstances around the NHL that made and 18 and 19 year old Patrik Laine score 36 and 44 goals and finish 7th and 2nd in the League aren't identical to the ones right now if we look deeper than just league wide scoring rate. Or maybe Young Laine is just better than Bedard will ever be. Who knows time will tell.

Is there a young Forward that you would take over Bedard on a go-forward longterm basis right now? Can you answer that definitively "Yes" without hemming and hawing with "well maybe Jack Hughes if he counts as young [had 52 points in his first 117 games across two seasons], maybe Michkov, maybe someone random I haven't considered"?

Look a bit deeper, he has a really low shooting % without a muffin shot. That will improve if history for any other player is an indicator. His Primary Assist to Secondary Assist ratio is way out of whack. He is 4th amongst Forwards in Powerplay Primary Assists per 60 on the Powerplay with a minimum amount of powerplay time over last season and start of this season, with an even more out of whack primary to secondary assist ratio (more out of line than the best playmakers in the world like McDavid and Kucherov). That should change as the Hawks presumably get better.

When it's all said and done, he can be compared to players way older than him to see how their careers stacked up. Right now though, I'm not that worried about how someone 8 or 18 years older than him was doing when they were his age. If history is an indicator, they will be less of a factor when Bedard is in his prime ages.

 

[Pile]

He's going to figure it out, not all prospect progression is linear no matter how high the ceiling. Adapting his style of game to the NHL has been a struggle no doubt, but if there's anything we've learned about him is he's going to put in the work to do so.

We can also potentially leverage the lack of production it into a much more team friendly deal when the time comes, a la Jack Hughes. I get the panic, but some you guys need to relax a little bit.

 

[hawksfan50]

Actualky Bedard is worse than 6% shooting ...ifvyou ho back to include 14 ladt hames last season+ the 16GP this sesdon ,he is just above 4% shooting g. NHL average team shooting isnear 10% (average is 9.7% per team this sesdon....

So a 30 game chunk isxa fair sample to say how poir he is not finishing his chances.
If he is amongst higher chances per game level like Mathews as pointed out above,thenit IS his shooting finish that IS the problem..and anunexpectrd problem givenhis release and shotcwere described as soecial making hima generational talent..hos playmakingvwss always described as secondary to that special shot.

Now stats can be deceiving.. Chances are chances but high dNger gradeA slot chances may be more talking than chances not is prone shooting areas..so can anyone supply the data on Mathews vs Bedardomsich slot svorobg chances and conversion rate on those comparing the2 of them?

Anotgercstat frequently used is expected goals..How about someone compari g Bedard vs.Mathews on expected goals and conversions (finish rate on those)?


Point is 4% shoitingover lastc30GP is a big disappointment given all the hype on hos special shot...It cannot be that every single opps team just assigns good checkers to stop him... They do not do that to any other 1C of any other team because I do notvghink anybotherc1C I thenleague is shooting just 4 to6%..


So we have a legitimate concern going back at least last 30GP for him if not a bit more(I have not checked that)..

The point is if he shotcaroubdvkeaguecaveragevivervlastc30GP he woukd have double his 5 goals ..Given the excitement in drafting his Generational shot he should have 2.5 to 3 × as many goals as he produced over last 30GP at least.

If hecwaxon fire at over 20% shooting hecwoukd have 15 to 20 goals over ladtc30 Hp..but shooting just over 4% in thatcstretch frankly is shocking ..Itcshoukd not be that bad....but sadly it is...

He has been called out..time to start beating the goalies as he should...but he needs to shoot from better sootsvo the ice...more from the center slot and closer to the net.

Now if he had grestvpkaymakers to set him up for 1 timers from the circle dot like Ovechkin made a career of specialness converting such chances Then that woukd be fine ..but since hevdoes not have that it means at least for this season he has to lug the puck more himself to create hisbown chances from the prime dlit area..I do not see him laughing thebpuck to those areas releasing and scorong.


Bedard himself is critical of himself for not finishing more shotsvon goal...but he is not realky doing what he must to lug that puck into the high danger center slot prome scorong area...

Thatvis my eye test on hom..


He of course woukd her more offensive zonevtime and chances if his libe could spend more puck posession n in the o-zonw ..but too many games they are hemmed in their own d'zone....puck retrieval and quick transitions to the attack have not been a hallmark of Bedard and any linemates they put him with..till that is revered hard to see hom generatingcamoubtbof goals we expect unless that shotong% is much much higher than tgenlows he now seemscto be stuck in.


Tgevlibtcabout grestbokayersvisctgey are not streaky but consistent ..So far Bedard shows consistency...consistently bad shooting %..

I do not think he gets drafted #1i if his greatcshotvisvjustcstreaky..

So we gotta problem.

Yes he is only19..so still 2-3years to reach what shoukd be start of hos promevyears..But for now tgevoroblem with shooting% is staring hom and us in the face.

He has gotctovstart beating goalies a kot more frequently.. and at very minimum get to league average shooting %..

 

[x Tame Impala]

Jack Hughes had 52 points in his first 117 games. The Hawks need a better team and Bedard needs to fill out a little bit.