Bedard rookie predictions

[EmeticDonut]

He's being hyped as the next potential generational talent after McDavid/Crosby, yet people are penciling him in for modest totals that you'd expect out of most NHL-ready 1st overall picks.

Crosby scored over 100 points as a rookie, while McDavid paced for almost 90 points in a low scoring season. That's the range Bedard should be if he's as good as the hype.

But you see, he's small and can't skate.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Why would 35 goals be the best you could see. Crosby scored 39 as an 18 year and Bedard is a better goal scorer than Crosby was before the NHL. Scoring throughout the NHL is also higher now than it was in 2005-06.

I'm not so sure Bedard is a better goal scorer than Crosby. Better shooter, sure, but Crosby's ability around the net was already world class at 18.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

But you see, he's small and can't skate.

Did you slip into a coma and combine Slafkovsky and Bedard as prospects?

 

[EmeticDonut]

Did you slip into a coma and combine Slafkovsky and Bedard as prospects?

Just repeating what has been said about Bedard around the board.

 

[Fantomas]

He's being hyped as the next potential generational talent after McDavid/Crosby, yet people are penciling him in for modest totals that you'd expect out of most NHL-ready 1st overall picks.

Crosby scored over 100 points as a rookie, while McDavid paced for almost 90 points in a low scoring season. That's the range Bedard should be if he's as good as the hype.

Agreed with this. I expect 75 points minimum.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Just repeating what has been said about Bedard around the board.

Fair enough, thought it was your opinion without seeing much of the thread. Probably shouldn't read the rest of this thread in that case.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Games: 68
Goals: 29
Assists: 22
Points: 51
+\-: -17
PIMS: 24

 

[BlueSeal]

You do know that CB cannot play 26+ minutes a game, in avg or otherwise, right?
also,.. Couture, Hertl, Meier, Barabanov... etc. etc. kinda helped to boost his point totals.

Nothing away from his great season but still..

Hawks don't have players like Couture, Hertl, nor Meier to boost CB point totals
Barabanov? yeah maybe

True but I feel that Bedard will elevate others around him and really inspire. I don’t know, I feel like he’s got a lot more going for him than just skill. Just something about him.

 

[behemolari]

Second in calder scoring

 

[authentic]

I'm not so sure Bedard is a better goal scorer than Crosby. Better shooter, sure, but Crosby's ability around the net was already world class at 18.

True but Bedard scored more goals all throughout his junior career.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

True but Bedard scored more goals all throughout his junior career.

Yeah, I just don't know if his scoring style will translate as well to the NHL. Much harder to get open looks from the circles in the NHL.

I do suspect he's gonna light it up on the PP. But I think his ES goal totals might be a bit low until he gets some more help around him.

 

[Space umpire]

Yeah thats false.

Actually it’s true.

 

[dustybreaks]

Actually it’s true.

What were you saying?

 

[Space umpire]

The assist numbers show he's more of a goal scorer but less of a playmaker compared to Crosby. His comparables are probably more Ovechkin and Matthews than Crosby and McDavid.

Disagree, Crosby had a much better team around him. Bedard was flying solo.
Ovi and AM do not gain their own ice, relying on someone else to be the puck carrier. Bedard skates with the puck like Crosby and McDavid. Creating his own offense.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Disagree, Crosby had a much better team around him. Bedard was flying solo.
Ovi and AM do not gain their own ice, relying on someone else to be the puck carrier. Bedard skates with the puck like Crosby and McDavid. Creating his own offense.

Didn't watch young Ovechkin? He very much created his own offense and carried the puck. And Bedard literally developed his shot by copying Matthews.

 

[authentic]

Not much higher. 05-06 was crazy high scoring as well. 3.08 goals per game vs 3.18 today.

Those are including shootout goals. It was 3.03 to 3.14. Still higher today either way though.

Didn't watch young Ovechkin? He very much created his own offense and carried the puck. And Bedard literally developed his shot by copying Matthews.

Same goes for young Matthews or any version of Matthews that isn't injured. But yeah a young Ovechkin was the definiton of creating your own offense.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Get ready for the greatest rookie season since Gretzky.

 

[Channelcat]

48 points

 

[cupface52]

Do people forget the dumpster fire that was the Penguins in '06? With the Capitals having an even worse forward lineup. That never stopped Ovechkin and Crosby from finishing 3rd and 6th in scoring their rookie years. Edmonton wasn't that much better in '16 and McDavid finished 3rd in p/pg, one of just 8 p/pg scorers. Elite talent produces no matter who they're surrounded by. Slower, smaller, weaker Kane in '08 scored 72 points, finishing t28 in scoring.

Post lockout there has been 24 60+ point rookies with 7 of them scoring 70+ points, with the majority of those years being noticeably lower scoring.

Bedard likely finishes ~15th in scoring, based on last years scoring that would put him around 95 points.
60 points puts him barely inside the top 100 scorers, 70 points is outside the top 50.

Notable rookies and where they finished in the scoring race.

Ovechkin 3
Crosby 6
Malkin 18
Kane t-28
Stastny 30
Barzal t-13
Panarin t-9
Matthews t-20
Mackinnon t-34
Stone t-29
Gaudreau t-29
Forsberg t-35

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Disagree, Crosby had a much better team around him. Bedard was flying solo.
Ovi and AM do not gain their own ice, relying on someone else to be the puck carrier. Bedard skates with the puck like Crosby and McDavid. Creating his own offense.

Bedard was far from flying solo. Regina lacked depth, but Bedard had a lot of talent to play with, especially on the PP. Suzdalev, Svozil, and Howe are talented junior players in their own right.

He also isn't nearly the same level of puck carrier as Crosby and McDavid, especially through the neutral zone. And Matthews was absolutely capable of gaining his own ice and carrying the puck, even though he played in a men's league during his draft year.

Watch a few plays from this video:

Here:


And another example of gaining ice:

 

[McFlash97]

Has to score at least 80 + , then people will believe the hype.

Too small to reach McDavid level though.

 

[authentic]

Do people forget the dumpster fire that was the Penguins in '06? With the Capitals having an even worse forward lineup. That never stopped Ovechkin and Crosby from finishing 3rd and 6th in scoring their rookie years. Edmonton wasn't that much better in '16 and McDavid finished 3rd in p/pg, one of just 8 p/pg scorers. Elite talent produces no matter who they're surrounded by. Slower, smaller, weaker Kane in '08 scored 72 points, finishing t28 in scoring.

Post lockout there has been 24 60+ point rookies with 7 of them scoring 70+ points, with the majority of those years being noticeably lower scoring.

Bedard likely finishes ~15th in scoring, based on last years scoring that would put him around 95 points.
60 points puts him barely inside the top 100 scorers, 70 points is outside the top 50.

Notable rookies and where they finished in the scoring race.

Ovechkin 3
Crosby 6
Malkin 18
Kane t-28
Stastny 30
Barzal t-13
Panarin t-9
Matthews t-20
Mackinnon t-34
Stone t-29
Gaudreau t-29
Forsberg t-35

Matthews was also tied for 2nd in goals scored (also did this with just over 17 minutes total time on ice and just over 2 on the powerplay). I agree with this breakdown here which is why I have him around 40 goals and 90 points. Anything between 80-100 wouldn't surprise me. Anything lower is just underrating him as a player, he'll have no trouble getting a point per game in this scoring environment.

 

[shakes the clown]

best wrist shot in the history of the game already, he's going to light up the league from day 1.

 

[authentic]

best wrist shot in the history of the game already, he's going to light up the league from day 1.

Not sure about this, but for a 17 year old? Probably, although Matthews who he molded his shot after is basically the same with probably even more power behind it.

 

[shakes the clown]

Not sure about this, but for a 17 year old? Probably, although Matthews who he molded his shot after is basically the same with probably even more power behind it.

I gotta see more of Matthews before I comment. I'll watch his goal highlight video later on. I was shocked to see just how many goals Bedard scored from the high slot with that toe drag wrister into the upper left corner of the net. Of the 71 goals it looked like at least 40 were like that. The release and how quickly the puck ended up in the net were jaw dropping. If it wasn't for the goalie reaction you would never know where the puck even entered the net.