GDT: avs @ hawks - Jan 8 5:30 PM MST - emerg

[expatriatedtexan]

Come on ET, what are the players gonna say? "I'm exhausted. The coach kept me on the ice for almost five minutes to end a game down two goals in the first half of a back to back. Crazy right?"

You've been watching sports long enough. Players don't show weakness and they certainly don't throw a likable coach under the bus.

No... but I wouldn't have been surprised to hear a player say something along the lines of "we wore down in the end there" during a post game scrum if it really was the case.

 

[Foppa2118]

No... but I wouldn't have been surprised to hear a player say something along the lines of "we wore down in the end there" during a post game scrum if it really was the case.

Watch the end of the game again if you can. Cale is visibly huffing and puffing on his second to last shift.

Then after being out on the ice for about 4:30 Bednar keeps him out for the last 10 seconds for no real reason whatsoever down two goals, and he just stays hunched over with his stick on his knees after the faceoff, not trying to do anything to score, because they're down two goals with 10 seconds left, and he's exhausted.

It's just a matter of physics. You may be able to get away with doing this a few times, but there is simply a limit to how far you can push your body, and nobody will know that limit until they're already passed it.

So why risk going over that limit in a game they weren't winning? They don't need any message sending to fight until the end. This group won a Cup a few years ago and they've been playing well lately.

 

[Foppa2118]

BTW @expatriatedtexan Bednar has admitted to overplaying his players before, and I've heard the players say things along the lines of "we wore down at the end."

Bednar is aware of it, he just keeps doing it because he thinks the players can handle it.

My contention is he has no way of knowing, and the players keep getting older every year, so just because they got away with it last year, doesn't mean they will this year.

So he's taking a big risk of burnout or injury impacting their playoffs, in a game that I think most Avalanche fans knew they weren't coming back in. I just don't think he's making a smart logical decision here, which is rare for a smart coach like him.

 

[dahrougem2]

Bednar's job is one in which he is not guaranteed anything other than tonight.

It's his job to win every game, every night. Start dropping games, maybe end the season lower in the standings... these things cost HC's their job every single year. Bednar will rightfully run this group into the ground to win a game. It's his job.

Also...for all the bitching, moaning and griping we do about the players ice time, I have yet to hear a player broach the subject in interviews or post game scrums. Of couse, I could have missed it, but I would imagine it would have been a huge deal on here if it had happened.

Just go back to last season's playoffs if you're looking for evidence. Nathan MacKinnon after game 5 against Dallas - a win - wanted nothing to do with his post-game locker interview and he said it's because he was exhausted. He played 24:19 that game, which was a regular occurrence all season.

BTW @expatriatedtexan Bednar has admitted to overplaying his players before, and I've heard the players say things along the lines of "we wore down at the end."

Bednar is aware of it, he just keeps doing it because he thinks the players can handle it.

My contention is he has no way of knowing, and the players keep getting older every year, so just because they got away with it last year, doesn't mean they will this year.

So he's taking a big risk of burnout or injury impacting their playoffs, in a game that I think most Avalanche fans knew they weren't coming back in. I just don't think he's making a smart logical decision here, which is rare for a smart coach like him.

He knows he does it, he knows the fans question it, but the few times he's been questioned on it he scoffs at the question and suggests top athletes shouldn't have problems handling those minutes.

He's ignorant and stubborn. For such a data-driven organization, you would think someone would show him the data of teams to win Stanley Cups and never has a team won playing its top forwards as much as he does.

 

[Foppa2118]

Just go back to last season's playoffs if you're looking for evidence. Nathan MacKinnon after game 5 against Dallas - a win - wanted nothing to do with his post-game locker interview and he said it's because he was exhausted. He played 24:19 that game, which was a regular occurrence all season.

He knows he does it, he knows the fans question it, but the few times he's been questioned on it he scoffs at the question and suggests top athletes shouldn't have problems handling those minutes.

He's ignorant and stubborn. For such a data-driven organization, you would think someone would show him the data of teams to win Stanley Cups and never has a team won playing its top forwards as much as he does.

Yeah, Nate definitely looked like he ran out of gas.

Bednar thinks because McDavid and Draisatl play similar (but less) minutes as Nate and Mikko, or Doughty, Jones, and Hughes play similar minutes as Cale, it's ok.

But again this isn't a smart way to look at this, for a smart guy like him.

These guys don't expel the amount of energy that Nate and Cale do. Nate's a thoroughbred and so is Cale. Cale also expels a tremendous amount of energy making sure he defends as hard as he plays offensively. The other defenseman don't. They save more energy at one end of the rink than he does.

Guys like McDavid, Draisaitl, Marner, Jones, Hughes, Josi, Heiskanen, Dahlin etc, they all play a much smoother skating style, and they still play less than the Avs guys.

Look at the style and the way the other guys skate who are in the top 10 in minutes. They'll have more gas in the tank because they don't pump their legs at a million miles an hour every shift, so they'll have less risk of fatigue over the course of a season, or multiple seasons.

Forwards Last 4 Years TOI/GM

1) MacKinnon - 22:18
2) Rantanen - 22:07
3) McDavid - 21:56
4) Draisaitl - 21:33
5) Marner - 21:12
6) Kaprizov - 20:49
7) Kucherov - 20:46
8) Suzuki - 20:45
9) Connor - 20:38
10) Matthews - 20:36

Defenseman Last 4 Years TOI/GM

1) Doughty - 25:57
2) Makar - 25:33
3) Jones - 25:22
4) Werenski - 25:16
5) Hughes - 25:26
6) Josi - 25:06
7) Heiskanen - 25:03
8) Dahlin - 25:00
9) Faber - 24:54
10) Letang - 24:52

 

[dahrougem2]

Yeah, Nate definitely looked like he ran out of gas.

Bednar thinks because McDavid and Draisatl play similar (but less) minutes as Nate and Mikko, or Doughty, Jones, and Hughes play similar minutes as Cale, it's ok.

But again this isn't a smart way to look at this, for a smart guy like him.

These guys don't expel the amount of energy that Nate and Cale do. Nate's a thoroughbred and so is Cale. Cale also expels a tremendous amount of energy making sure he defends as hard as he plays offensively. The other defenseman don't. They save more energy at one end of the rink than he does.

Guys like McDavid, Draisaitl, Marner, Jones, Hughes, Josi, Heiskanen, Dahlin etc, they all play a much smoother skating style, and they still play less than the Avs guys.

Look at the style and the way the other guys skate who are in the top 10 in minutes. They'll have more gas in the tank because they don't pump their legs at a million miles an hour every shift, so they'll have less risk of fatigue over the course of a season, or multiple seasons.

Forwards Last 4 Years TOI/GM

1) MacKinnon - 22:18
2) Rantanen - 22:07
3) McDavid - 21:56
4) Draisaitl - 21:33
5) Marner - 21:12
6) Kaprizov - 20:49
7) Kucherov - 20:46
8) Suzuki - 20:45
9) Connor - 20:38
10) Matthews - 20:36

Defenseman Last 4 Years TOI/GM

1) Doughty - 25:57
2) Makar - 25:33
3) Jones - 25:22
4) Werenski - 25:16
5) Hughes - 25:26
6) Josi - 25:06
7) Heiskanen - 25:03
8) Dahlin - 25:00
9) Faber - 24:54
10) Letang - 24:52

It's maddening but it's not going to change. Even if the Avs were ever fully healthy I'd expect him to play MacKinnon 24/night.

Something happened during 22-23 that he has changed and I don't know why. Something caused him to play them like crazy and he hasn't looked back since.

 

[Foppa2118]

It's maddening but it's not going to change. Even if the Avs were ever fully healthy I'd expect him to play MacKinnon 24/night.

Something happened during 22-23 that he has changed and I don't know why. Something caused him to play them like crazy and he hasn't looked back since.

Yeah, it's even more pronounced since last year for the forwards. About the same since 2022-23. Nate and Mikko about a minute more on average than anyone else, and hundreds more in total.

Nate more than a minute more on average than any other forward since last year, and Mikko almost that as well. And again the other guys expel less energy anyway with their style.

Cale took a step back, because they were managing his hip issue. Which is again a reason not to push him physically unless it's warranted. That's just unnecessary wear and tear.

Look at the difference in comparable players MacKinnon vs McDavid and Rantanen vs Draisaitl. Then compare the energy they each played with in the playoffs. Matthews isn't even in the top 10.

Forward TOI/GM Since 2022-23

1) MacKinnon - 22:55
2) Rantanen - 22:45
3) Kaprizov - 21:54
4) Trocheck - 21:31
5) Kucherov - 21:31
6) McDavid - 21:30
7) Marner - 21:20
8) Granlund - 21:03
9) Draisaitl - 20:54
10) Nichuskin - 20:52

Nate's played 10-15 full regular season games more in the last 1.5 years too. Nearly everyone else in the 2500 minutes range. Reads like that's the max the workhorses should have played over full seasons and the Avs are quite a bit over that.

Total TOI Since 2022-23

1) MacKinnon - 2865:24
2) Rantanen - 2797:15
3) Trocheck - 2646:54
4) Reinhart - 2554:01
5) Draisaitl - 2550:13
6) Suzuki - 2541:45
7) Kucherov - 2538:28
8) Crosby - 2534:50
9) Pastrnak - 2529:06
10) Nylander - 2474:34