Auston Matthews has more goals and a higher gpg than Ovechkin age for age. And the gap is about to grow. Can he also make a run at 894?

[jigglysquishy]

When all is said and done, Matthews' inability to be a consistent high end point producer is what will hold him back in all time conversations.

Ovechkin at peak won an Art Ross and has multiple times top 3 in points. Brett Hull finished second to Gretzky in points. Bobby Hull and Esposito each led the league in points multiple times. Even Stamkos has 2012 and 2013.

There's a clear cut top five forwards born in the 1992-1999 window (McDavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews). He is by far the worst playmaker of the bunch. It's getting to the point where he's not good enough to be in that group.

He has by far the weakest playoff resume and performances. He can't crack the top 4 in points. And he consistently misses time.

The other four are either in or tracking to be top 50 all time. And he's just not on their level.

He's shown he's an all time great goal scorer. I hope he can turn the corner and get to that next level. And have a great playoffs and lead the league in points. But so far, I just don't think he has it in him.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The other four are either in or tracking to be top 50 all time. And he's just not on their level.

I hope he can turn the corner and get to that next level. And have a great playoffs and lead the league in points. But so far, I just don't think he has it in him.

I dunno specifics, but if he gets to like 800 goals and 3rd all time, he's going to warrant consideration.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

When all is said and done, Matthews' inability to be a consistent high end point producer is what will hold him back in all time conversations.

Ovechkin at peak won an Art Ross and has multiple times top 3 in points. Brett Hull finished second to Gretzky in points. Bobby Hull and Esposito each led the league in points multiple times. Even Stamkos has 2012 and 2013.

There's a clear cut top five forwards born in the 1992-1999 window (McDavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews). He is by far the worst playmaker of the bunch. It's getting to the point where he's not good enough to be in that group.

He has by far the weakest playoff resume and performances. He can't crack the top 4 in points. And he consistently misses time.

The other four are either in or tracking to be top 50 all time. And he's just not on their level.

He's shown he's an all time great goal scorer. I hope he can turn the corner and get to that next level. And have a great playoffs and lead the league in points. But so far, I just don't think he has it in him.

I struggle with Matthews. I agree that he's been one of the top five forwards in the league for many years now. It wouldn't surprise me if he reached 700 goals. In terms of innate talent, I think he's comparable to a hypothetical injury-free Stamkos.

I find Matthews gets overrated to an obnoxious degree by a small subset of fans. That's not his fault, of course. (But I don't find him anywhere near as strong defensively as his reputation suggests. Solidly above average, sure, but I'm still amazed he was a Selke finalist last year).

There are two obvious strikes against him (so far). Like you said, relative to his peers, he's not a great playmaker. (I know a few vocal critics cry bias when HOH makes that argument against Ovechkin, but we're being entirely consistent here). And Matthews' playoff production has been disappointing (not quite Dionne level, but probably Thornton territory). I'm skeptical that he'll suddenly turn into a strong playmaker. The jury's still out on whether he'll get it together in the spring. (In fact, I think Matthews is probably a Bossy-level goal-scorer, but the difference in their playoff production is so vast, it makes the entire comparison feel absurd).

 

[Daximus]

I dunno specifics, but if he gets to like 800 goals and 3rd all time, he's going to warrant consideration.

I think that is still a big if right now. His health has largely been an issue early on so far. He has some great scoring seasons recently but the post 30 career arc is going to be the biggest factor. If he has health issues like this early on hitting 800 is still an uphill climb.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I dunno specifics, but if he gets to like 800 goals and 3rd all time, he's going to warrant consideration.

Brett Hull retired 3rd all time in goals. This forum voted him 80th last time.

Gartner, at 700 goals and top 10 all time. He was 266 on the aggregate list.

I don't think Matthews is on a trajectory to overtake a Brett Hull career.

 

[Midnight Judges]

There are two obvious strikes against him (so far). Like you said, relative to his peers, he's not a great playmaker. (I know a few vocal critics cry bias when HOH makes that argument against Ovechkin, but we're being entirely consistent here).

You are straw manning this.

The problem arises when history forum regulars say things that are blatantly false, such as Ovechkin is a "shoot-only player" or "one-dimensional" or "only does one thing." These are all obvious and blatant falsehoods - easily debunked with objective evidence - and yet these types of statements persist and often go unchallenged by the history forum regulars.

Ovechkin is top 5 all-time in adjusted points while also being top 3 in hits during his generation. <---That sentence alone counteracts some of the most persistent viewpoints in the history forum as it pertains to Ovie.

The bias is demonstrable.

 

[Daximus]

Brett Hull retired 3rd all time in goals. This forum voted him 80th last time.

Gartner, at 700 goals and top 10 all time. He was 266 on the aggregate list.

I don't think Matthews is on a trajectory to overtake a Brett Hull career.

I think it'll be interesting. The comparison to Hull at 30 vs Matthews at 27 is trending in Matthews favour.

Hull by 30yo
588 GP - 442 G - 308 A - 750 PTS
1x Hart - 3x Hart Finalist - 4x Hart Top Ten
3x Rockets - 4x Top Three Goals - 6x Top Ten Goals
0x Ross - 1x Top Three Points - 3x Top Ten Points
3x First Team Allstar - 0x Second Team - 2x Third Team

Matthews by 27yo
575 GP - 373 G - 287 A - 660 PTS
1x Hart - 2x Hart Finalist - 4x Hart Top Ten
3x Rockets - 5x Top Three Goals - 5x Top Ten Goalss
0x Ross - 0x Top Three Points - 4x Top Ten Points
1x First Team Allstar - 1x Second Team - 1x Third Team

He's not to far behind in a generally lower scoring era. Has a pretty similar resume relative to his peers and started his career 3 years earlier and still has another 3 years until he is 30. Despite that they have pretty similar games played at this stage due to Matthews missing quite a bit of time due to injury and having to deal with the covid years.

I wouldn't be surprised if Matthews overtakes Hull in a direct 30yo to 30yo trajectory by the time he hits it in terms of overall play against his peers. He's probably got another Rocket maybe two in him by then, granted Matthews had a 111 goal head start by the age that Hull entered the league (22yo). But when it's all said and done I think Matthews could very easily track ahead of Hull. Matthews better and earlier start might make up for any longevity issues he could face compared to Hull.

 

[jigglysquishy]

There's the "common" picks for top 10 all-time in goals post-war. They split evenly into four (+1) groups when it comes to assists. Top 10 in assists for pre-1980, top 25 post-1980

The elite playmakers
Gretzky - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,5,7,9
Lemieux - 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,4,4,16
Howe - 1,1,1,2,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,6,7,8,8,9

The Esposito
Esposito - 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,5,6

The shoot-first, but still strong all around offensive
Bobby Hull - 5,6,6,7,8
Bossy - 4,6,9,11,13,13,24
Ovechkin - 6,6,10,20,29
Richard - 6,7,9,10
Selanne - 4,7,9,9,10

The sometimes pass
Brett Hull - 10,19

What is a pass?
Matthews - (best assist finish is 40th)
Bure - (best assists finish was 32nd)

You can quip about some of the names, maybe add Stamkos in there too. Jagr and Beliveau too.
But Matthews really stands out in a bad way. It's not like he's playing with guys with stone hands either. Tavares hit 47 goals. Nyland hit 40 twice and is tied for 4th right now. He has guys to pass to. He just doesn't.

 

[Daximus]

There's the "common" picks for top 10 all-time in goals post-war. They split evenly into four (+1) groups when it comes to assists. Top 10 in assists for pre-1980, top 25 post-1980

The elite playmakers
Gretzky - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,5,7,9
Lemieux - 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,4,4,16
Howe - 1,1,1,2,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,6,7,8,8,9

The Esposito
Esposito - 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,5,6

The shoot-first, but still strong all around offensive
Bobby Hull - 5,6,6,7,8
Bossy - 4,6,9,11,13,13,24
Ovechkin - 6,6,10,20,29
Richard - 6,7,9,10
Selanne - 4,7,9,9,10

The sometimes pass
Brett Hull - 10,19

What is a pass?
Matthews - (best assist finish is 40th)
Bure - (best assists finish was 32nd)

You can quip about some of the names, maybe add Stamkos in there too. Jagr and Beliveau too.
But Matthews really stands out in a bad way. It's not like he's playing with guys with stone hands either. Tavares hit 47 goals. Nyland hit 40 twice and is tied for 4th right now. He has guys to pass to. He just doesn't.

It's interesting because Hull's 82 game average up to age 27 is 43.3, Matthews is 40.9.

So on average up to similar points in their career Hull averages about 2.4 more assists per 82 games than Matthews. Yet his finishes are much higher in terms of the league.

Matthews to a similar point is averaging 28.4 even strength assist per 82. While Hull up to the same point was averaging 22.6.

Conversely Hull averages 19.7 assists per 82 on the PP while Matthews averages 12.4.

So as far as 5v5 goes Matthews seems like he actually passes a lot more and passes a lot less on the PP. That or his team just converts less on the PP than Hull's did and we know about the Leafs PP struggles. If Matthews isn't scoring, they aren't really doing much of anything.

Either way you slice it though they are pretty similar in that regard. I wouldn't call either one of them some kind of assist wizard even though the finishes indicate that Hull is better his totals are pretty bad when you consider the scoring era he played in, despite his finishes being higher.

 

[DRW895]

People are looking at Ovechkin way and somehow automatically projecting his achievments on Matthews and that`s wrong. A few guys scored more goals than Ovechkin by the age of 27, the end was predictable.
Technically 69 > 65. two 60 goals campaign > single 60+ goal season, but rest of aspects are on Ovechkin`s side.
Even 69 goal year didn`t make Auston best NHL player like Ovechkin in 2008. He was out of Hart top 3

 

[Plural]

It's possible but highly unlikely. There's been few (not many but few still) guys in the league who have had the looks early on that they could challenge Gretzky's total goal amount. None came close. Off the top of my head, guys who for a while looked like they could actually be a threat for all-time goal-record:

Mike Bossy
Brett Hull
Teemu Selanne
Pavel Bure
Ilya Kovalchuk
Rick Nash
Steven Stamkos


Probably forgetting some guys. I'm not saying those guys are Matthews level scorers (although I think Bossy and Bure at least were) but guessing career totals for 10-or so years in the future is just a massive guessing game.

How many would have guessed that after scoring 60 goals Stamkos would never again break 50 goals in a season?

How many would have guessed that after scoring 72 goals in his rookie year, Selanne would take 5 seasons to score 50 goals again.

How many would have guessed that after scoring 153 goals in his first three seasons in the league, Bure would go on to score less than 300 more goals in his entire career?

Etc. etc.

Matthews is, by talent, one of the rare players I see having a real chance of scoring +800 goals. But that will require a lot of things to go right for him. Currently he's in Germany getting treatment for a mystery injury/health issue.

He might score +800 or even break the goal record. I hope he does. But the odds for it to happen are extremely low. So far, only one player has gotten in to striking distance of beating Gretzky's record and it took historically consistent and healthy goal-scorer to do that. Not a elite, great or whatever word, historically consistent and healthy. Like one of a kind so far. You need to win the lottery, twice, to get to those numbers.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

It's possible but highly unlikely. There's been few (not many but few still) guys in the league who have had the looks early on that they could challenge Gretzky's total goal amount. None came close. Off the top of my head, guys who for a while looked like they could actually be a threat for all-time goal-record:

Mike Bossy
Brett Hull
Teemu Selanne
Pavel Bure
Ilya Kovalchuk
Rick Nash
Steven Stamkos


Probably forgetting some guys. I'm not saying those guys are Matthews level scorers (although I think Bossy and Bure at least were) but guessing career totals for 10-or so years in the future is just a massive guessing game.

How many would have guessed that after scoring 60 goals Stamkos would never again break 50 goals in a season?

How many would have guessed that after scoring 72 goals in his rookie year, Selanne would take 5 seasons to score 50 goals again.

How many would have guessed that after scoring 153 goals in his first three seasons in the league, Bure would go on to score less than 300 more goals in his entire career?

Etc. etc.

Matthews is, by talent, one of the rare players I see having a real chance of scoring +800 goals. But that will require a lot of things to go right for him. Currently he's in Germany getting treatment for a mystery injury/health issue.

He might score +800 or even break the goal record. I hope he does. But the odds for it to happen are extremely low. So far, only one player has gotten in to striking distance of beating Gretzky's record and it took historically consistent and healthy goal-scorer to do that. Not a elite, great or whatever word, historically consistent and healthy. Like one of a kind so far. You need to win the lottery, twice, to get to those numbers.

Well said. Ovechkin isn't on the verge of breaking Gretzky's record because of what he did from age 20 to 29. It's what he's done in his thirties that's been so unprecedented.

Matthews (roughly) keeping pace with Ovechkin through age 27 is obviously impressive, but it really doesn't tell us much about how he's going to age. (The fact that he's already missed more games than Ovechkin has in 20 years isn't encouraging).

What Ovechkin did is so rare, and in such defiance of normal aging patterns, that merely keeping pace with him isn't good enough. For Matthews (or anyone) to have more than a small chance of ending up ahead, he'd have to build up a huge buffer in his 20's, that will provide a cushion when the inevitable slowdown happens. Failing that, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[Daximus]

It's possible but highly unlikely. There's been few (not many but few still) guys in the league who have had the looks early on that they could challenge Gretzky's total goal amount. None came close. Off the top of my head, guys who for a while looked like they could actually be a threat for all-time goal-record:

Mike Bossy
Brett Hull
Teemu Selanne
Pavel Bure
Ilya Kovalchuk
Rick Nash
Steven Stamkos


Probably forgetting some guys. I'm not saying those guys are Matthews level scorers (although I think Bossy and Bure at least were) but guessing career totals for 10-or so years in the future is just a massive guessing game.

How many would have guessed that after scoring 60 goals Stamkos would never again break 50 goals in a season?

How many would have guessed that after scoring 72 goals in his rookie year, Selanne would take 5 seasons to score 50 goals again.

How many would have guessed that after scoring 153 goals in his first three seasons in the league, Bure would go on to score less than 300 more goals in his entire career?

Etc. etc.

Matthews is, by talent, one of the rare players I see having a real chance of scoring +800 goals. But that will require a lot of things to go right for him. Currently he's in Germany getting treatment for a mystery injury/health issue.

He might score +800 or even break the goal record. I hope he does. But the odds for it to happen are extremely low. So far, only one player has gotten in to striking distance of beating Gretzky's record and it took historically consistent and healthy goal-scorer to do that. Not a elite, great or whatever word, historically consistent and healthy. Like one of a kind so far. You need to win the lottery, twice, to get to those numbers.

Health really is one of the most important factors in todays game in even getting to 800 let alone pushing to the record. So many of those guys looked poised to do it but fell short because of major injuries.

The only thing that will change that is if we suddenly have an explosion of offence to the point where guys are hitting 70+ regularly. Then you could probably have like 8-10 really elite seasons for someone to push into that range before they hit 30 and even that is a difficult task.

 

[bobholly39]

It's possible but highly unlikely. There's been few (not many but few still) guys in the league who have had the looks early on that they could challenge Gretzky's total goal amount. None came close. Off the top of my head, guys who for a while looked like they could actually be a threat for all-time goal-record:

Mike Bossy
Brett Hull
Teemu Selanne
Pavel Bure
Ilya Kovalchuk
Rick Nash
Steven Stamkos


Probably forgetting some guys. I'm not saying those guys are Matthews level scorers (although I think Bossy and Bure at least were) but guessing career totals for 10-or so years in the future is just a massive guessing game.

How many would have guessed that after scoring 60 goals Stamkos would never again break 50 goals in a season?

How many would have guessed that after scoring 72 goals in his rookie year, Selanne would take 5 seasons to score 50 goals again.

How many would have guessed that after scoring 153 goals in his first three seasons in the league, Bure would go on to score less than 300 more goals in his entire career?

Etc. etc.

Matthews is, by talent, one of the rare players I see having a real chance of scoring +800 goals. But that will require a lot of things to go right for him. Currently he's in Germany getting treatment for a mystery injury/health issue.

He might score +800 or even break the goal record. I hope he does. But the odds for it to happen are extremely low. So far, only one player has gotten in to striking distance of beating Gretzky's record and it took historically consistent and healthy goal-scorer to do that. Not a elite, great or whatever word, historically consistent and healthy. Like one of a kind so far. You need to win the lottery, twice, to get to those numbers.

Out of your list - the only one who is comparable to Matthews in my opinion is Bossy. None of the other guys ever had a shot at 894, or close.


Brett Hull started at age 23. His age alone disqualifies him, he was never going to have the longevity to do so. If he had started at age 18. he might be closer to 894.

Selanne - same thing, started at age 22.

Nash - lower tier goal-scorer. Just not the same thing.

Kovalchuk - he did start strong, but his raw totals were still quite low. His first 8 years, he had 297 goals. Matthews is at 368. Also - after 8 years, league scoring was going down for Kovalchuk, it's going up for Matthews in recent years, different trend. He never had a shot at 894.

Bure....had had major injuries/time missed early on. He was a good peak goal-scorer, but never really had a shot at a high career total.

Stamkos looked great until age 23, when he had injury. He's simply not scored at the same level since. Great career beyond that point, but just not the same from a goal-scoring perspective. So, Stamkos maybe looked like a threat till ~age 23. Matthews is 27, that's almost twice as many seasons.

Bossy - if he hadn't retired for injuries - good chance he might have surpassed 894 himself. And he was still scoring extremely well and consistently up to age 30, and started at age 18. He's the only one on your list wh really had a shot at 894 past a certain age.

So - yes, if like Bossy, Matthews has a career ending injury, he isn't going to top 800, let alone 894.

The point is - what Matthews is doing so far is extremely rare in hockey history. Who else in hockey history had a better goal-scoring career, specifically in regards to raw goal totals - by age 26? Are there 5 players? Are there even 3?

 

[bobholly39]

Well said. Ovechkin isn't on the verge of breaking Gretzky's record because of what he did from age 20 to 29. It's what he's done in his thirties that's been so unprecedented.

Matthews (roughly) keeping pace with Ovechkin through age 27 is obviously impressive, but it really doesn't tell us much about how he's going to age. (The fact that he's already missed more games than Ovechkin has in 20 years isn't encouraging).

What Ovechkin did is so rare, and in such defiance of normal aging patterns, that merely keeping pace with him isn't good enough. For Matthews (or anyone) to have more than a small chance of ending up ahead, he'd have to build up a huge buffer in his 20's, that will provide a cushion when the inevitable slowdown happens. Failing that, we'll have to wait and see.

At the end of age 26 season Ovechkin had 339 goals, to Matthews 368.
Next 5 years for Ovechkin were:

2012-2013. Lockout, only 48 games
2013-2014 to 2016-2017. Some of the lowest scoring years in the past ~50 years of NHL.
And then Ovechkin turned 32, back half of his career.

The big advantage Matthews has is the league scoring should be a LOT higher for him next 5 years than it was for Ovechkin, for ages ~27-31. And - he's already ahead in raw goals.

So - he's in excellent position to distance Ovechkin even more in the coming years, or at least keep pace. He can be a worst goal-scorer than Ovechkin was at similar age, yet still have more raw goals.

I don't know how likely 894 is for Matthews - that's still too soon. But 800+ goals seems extremely likely.

 

[Daximus]

At the end of age 26 season Ovechkin had 339 goals, to Matthews 368.
Next 5 years for Ovechkin were:

2012-2013. Lockout, only 48 games
2013-2014 to 2016-2017. Some of the lowest scoring years in the past ~50 years of NHL.
And then Ovechkin turned 32, back half of his career.

The big advantage Matthews has is the league scoring should be a LOT higher for him next 5 years than it was for Ovechkin, for ages ~27-31. And - he's already ahead in raw goals.

So - he's in excellent position to distance Ovechkin even more in the coming years, or at least keep pace. He can be a worst goal-scorer than Ovechkin was at similar age, yet still have more raw goals.

I don't know how likely 894 is for Matthews - that's still too soon. But 800+ goals seems extremely likely.

The back 9 for Matthews is still going to have to be very good to get there. He's likely going to hit 400 within the next season or two. That is roughly ten seasons to 400-470ish.

Does he have it in the tank to hit basically the same number of goals post age 28? Based on what we have seen so far its gonna be tough. He's already missed more time overall due to injury at age 27 then Ovi has missed due to injury in his entire career up to age 39. That's not even counting time missed due to lockouts or covid seasons.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

At the end of age 26 season Ovechkin had 339 goals, to Matthews 368.
Next 5 years for Ovechkin were:

2012-2013. Lockout, only 48 games
2013-2014 to 2016-2017. Some of the lowest scoring years in the past ~50 years of NHL.
And then Ovechkin turned 32, back half of his career.

The big advantage Matthews has is the league scoring should be a LOT higher for him next 5 years than it was for Ovechkin, for ages ~27-31. And - he's already ahead in raw goals.

So - he's in excellent position to distance Ovechkin even more in the coming years, or at least keep pace. He can be a worst goal-scorer than Ovechkin was at similar age, yet still have more raw goals.

I don't know how likely 894 is for Matthews - that's still too soon. But 800+ goals seems extremely likely.

Maybe this is coming down to semantics, but I think "extremely likely" is really over-selling it. There are plenty of goal scorers who were talented enough to reach 800 goals - under the right circumstances, any of Lemieux, Bossy, Hull, Richard, Stamkos, Bure, etc could have done it.

Yet it's only been done 3 times in 106 years. A lot of things need to go right. For a player to have a fighting chance of scoring 800 goals, the scoring environment needs to be conducive (ie 82 game seasons and not DPE level offense - sorry Richard). He can't be tempted to join a rival league due to financial considerations - sorry Hull. He needs to have a long, healthy career - sorry Lemieux, Bossy, Stamkos and Bure.

Granted, I don't think a serious rival league is going to emerge, and I think the NHL will do what it can to keep scoring at current levels. That certainly helps Matthews. But I think you're seriously discounting the risk of a career-altering injury (Stamkos being a very good, recent example).

Eyeballing his stats (and thinking about some of the career forecast models I've built before - but not actually running the numbers), I think Matthews has something like a 20% chance of scoring 800 goals. If we assume that he plays 10-15 years and stays healthy, sure it might be a 75% chance. But the risk of a career-ending (or career-altering) injury is significant - especially because Matthews has missed a fair amount of time already. The risk, obviously, decreases with each passing year, but it's never zero.

This was a long-winded response. What I'm trying to say is Matthews has the talent to score 800, but "extremely likely" is very optimistic.

 

[archangel2]

I am going to split hairs here but one of Ovies first 8 season was a 48 games schedule due lockout/strike. If you pro rate that season to a full season he adds 20 goals to his total.

First 8 seasons(Matthews is in his 9th now) Ovie scored 371 vs Matthews 368.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It really does speak to how Ovechkin is in terms of goal scoring output that he really wasn't "lucky", when it comes to work stoppages due to Lockout and Pandemic as well as playing such a large portion of his career in a very low scoring era with very high save percentages. Emphasis on the durability/lack of missed time undersells it a bit and feels a bit too "Crosby-focused" imo. John Tavares probably ends up a first ballot hall of famer that didn't miss a ton of time, that does't guarantee shooting up all time career totals.

 

[bobholly39]

Maybe this is coming down to semantics, but I think "extremely likely" is really over-selling it. There are plenty of goal scorers who were talented enough to reach 800 goals - under the right circumstances, any of Lemieux, Bossy, Hull, Richard, Stamkos, Bure, etc could have done it.

Yet it's only been done 3 times in 106 years. A lot of things need to go right. For a player to have a fighting chance of scoring 800 goals, the scoring environment needs to be conducive (ie 82 game seasons and not DPE level offense - sorry Richard). He can't be tempted to join a rival league due to financial considerations - sorry Hull. He needs to have a long, healthy career - sorry Lemieux, Bossy, Stamkos and Bure.

Granted, I don't think a serious rival league is going to emerge, and I think the NHL will do what it can to keep scoring at current levels. That certainly helps Matthews. But I think you're seriously discounting the risk of a career-altering injury (Stamkos being a very good, recent example).

Eyeballing his stats (and thinking about some of the career forecast models I've built before - but not actually running the numbers), I think Matthews has something like a 20% chance of scoring 800 goals. If we assume that he plays 10-15 years and stays healthy, sure it might be a 75% chance. But the risk of a career-ending (or career-altering) injury is significant - especially because Matthews has missed a fair amount of time already. The risk, obviously, decreases with each passing year, but it's never zero.

This was a long-winded response. What I'm trying to say is Matthews has the talent to score 800, but "extremely likely" is very optimistic.

For the bolded - that's kind of my point.

If he has major injuries/career ending injury, it's obviously not happening.
If he retires super early, or completely falls off a cliff in regards to ability unexpectedly at an early age, it's also obviously not happening.

How likely are either of those 2 things to happen? Those are the exceptions usually, not the norm. Players of Matthews ability tend to age pretty well - and major injuries are usually the exception, not the norm.

But - if as you say he plays another ~10-15 years, and has a mostly healthy career (not 100% pure health, just decent enough health), I'd say he has an excellent chance at 800+ goals. ~50%+ I'd argue.

What other players in history could be said to have had a ~50%+ chance of hitting 800+ goals - health permitting - by the time they hit age 27? Gretzky of course. Lemieux and Bossy too. Anyone else?

Every extra year he keeps adding impressive total makes it that much more likely for me.

And yes - "extremely likely" is just a choice of words, and it might be semantics. But - he's still in an excellent position historically to make a run at an impressive career total.

 

[bobholly39]

The back 9 for Matthews is still going to have to be very good to get there. He's likely going to hit 400 within the next season or two. That is roughly ten seasons to 400-470ish.

Does he have it in the tank to hit basically the same number of goals post age 28? Based on what we have seen so far its gonna be tough. He's already missed more time overall due to injury at age 27 then Ovi has missed due to injury in his entire career up to age 39. That's not even counting time missed due to lockouts or covid seasons.

I'm not ready to say how likely or not Matthews is to reach 894. I think that's still a very high bar. There's a chance of course, but ask me that again in ~2 years. If he has 2 more great years (and yes, this season is already off to a bad start/injured, but still time to recover), I think the likelihood goes up.

I think 800+ goals is the target I feel very comfortable zero'ing in on. I think he's very likely to reach that, barring any huge career ending/altering injury.

To hit 800 goals, he needs 432 career goals beyond his age 26 season.

Selanne hit 470 goals beyond age 26. And this is despite two lockouts, dead puck era (and a second low scoring era beyond ~2010), and despite having seasons of only ~12 and 16 goals, as examples.

Brett Hull hit 509 goals beyond age 26. And this is despite two lockouts and the dead puck era.

Matthews hitting 432 goals - in what is likely to be a higher scoring league than what either Hull or Selanne had ages 27+, seems very attainable in comparison.

 

[Daximus]

I'm not ready to say how likely or not Matthews is to reach 894. I think that's still a very high bar. There's a chance of course, but ask me that again in ~2 years. If he has 2 more great years (and yes, this season is already off to a bad start/injured, but still time to recover), I think the likelihood goes up.

I think 800+ goals is the target I feel very comfortable zero'ing in on. I think he's very likely to reach that, barring any huge career ending/altering injury.

To hit 800 goals, he needs 432 career goals beyond his age 26 season.

Selanne hit 470 goals beyond age 26. And this is despite two lockouts, dead puck era (and a second low scoring era beyond ~2010), and despite having seasons of only ~12 and 16 goals, as examples.

Brett Hull hit 509 goals beyond age 26. And this is despite two lockouts and the dead puck era.

Matthews hitting 432 goals - in what is likely to be a higher scoring league than what either Hull or Selanne had ages 27+, seems very attainable in comparison.

What happens with his current injury could be very telling. We don't know much but we do know that he is in Germany. From what I have read the last time he was there he saw a wrist specialist. If it is indeed his wrist it could be a tough one.

Matthews is already 27, if he misses any good length of time this season he'll be going into his 28 year old season to try and even hit 400. The years of 28 to 33 will likely be crucial for him because as it stands it doesn't seem like he's going to be able to play late into his 30's. I could of course be wrong but his injury history to date isn't good. Especially if he has a nagging wrist injury, which heavily effects someones shooting abilities.

 

[Daximus]

For the bolded - that's kind of my point.

If he has major injuries/career ending injury, it's obviously not happening.
If he retires super early, or completely falls off a cliff in regards to ability unexpectedly at an early age, it's also obviously not happening.

How likely are either of those 2 things to happen? Those are the exceptions usually, not the norm. Players of Matthews ability tend to age pretty well - and major injuries are usually the exception, not the norm.

But - if as you say he plays another ~10-15 years, and has a mostly healthy career (not 100% pure health, just decent enough health), I'd say he has an excellent chance at 800+ goals. ~50%+ I'd argue.

What other players in history could be said to have had a ~50%+ chance of hitting 800+ goals - health permitting - by the time they hit age 27? Gretzky of course. Lemieux and Bossy too. Anyone else?

Every extra year he keeps adding impressive total makes it that much more likely for me.

And yes - "extremely likely" is just a choice of words, and it might be semantics. But - he's still in an excellent position historically to make a run at an impressive career total.

Another 10 years takes him to 38, another 15 to takes him to 43. Given his injury history to date I have a hard time seeing him play beyond his late 30's at best.

I'll repeat the fact that he has already missed more time due to injury at 28 years old, then Ovi has missed at 39 years old.

I just personally don't see him having a long career at this rate. Especially if he has a nagging wrist injury. Those don't tend to get better with age.

 

[bobholly39]

What happens with his current injury could be very telling. We don't know much but we do know that he is in Germany. From what I have read the last time he was there he saw a wrist specialist. If it is indeed his wrist it could be a tough one.

Matthews is already 27, if he misses any good length of time this season he'll be going into his 28 year old season to try and even hit 400. The years of 28 to 33 will likely be crucial for him because as it stands it doesn't seem like he's going to be able to play late into his 30's. I could of course be wrong but his injury history to date isn't good. Especially if he has a nagging wrist injury, which heavily effects someones shooting abilities.

Another 10 years takes him to 38, another 15 to takes him to 43. Given his injury history to date I have a hard time seeing him play beyond his late 30's at best.

I'll repeat the fact that he has already missed more time due to injury at 28 years old, then Ovi has missed at 39 years old.

I just personally don't see him having a long career at this rate. Especially if he has a nagging wrist injury. Those don't tend to get better with age.

You're very focused on injuries. And you're right - if Matthews health doesn't hold up, all of this conversation is a moot point. We'll see how things develop in coming weeks, months and years, with his wrist or anything else.

But it's kind of boring to focus on injuries. I'd rather consider what he's likely to do assuming decent health. Not 100% perfect health, just decent.

As for how old he's going to play? Again - way too soon to have that conversation. What I like about Matthews is that he started in his draft +1 season very strpmg, super consistent, without missing a beat. Players who start in the NHL early, and are as consistent as he has been from day 1, are the ones who tend to age well/remain consistent into their late 30s. So from an ability standpoint, I think he's the type of player likely to age well. That generally factors in to retirement age - players are more likely to continue playing if they're performing well, then if they slow down drastically.

 

[Daximus]

You're very focused on injuries. And you're right - if Matthews health doesn't hold up, all of this conversation is a moot point. We'll see how things develop in coming weeks, months and years, with his wrist or anything else.

But it's kind of boring to focus on injuries. I'd rather consider what he's likely to do assuming decent health. Not 100% perfect health, just decent.

As for how old he's going to play? Again - way too soon to have that conversation. What I like about Matthews is that he started in his draft +1 season very strpmg, super consistent, without missing a beat. Players who start in the NHL early, and are as consistent as he has been from day 1, are the ones who tend to age well/remain consistent into their late 30s. So from an ability standpoint, I think he's the type of player likely to age well. That generally factors in to retirement age - players are more likely to continue playing if they're performing well, then if they slow down drastically.

I think it's by and large the biggest factor for him going forward. We know he has the talent, we know scoring is up in recent years, it's not quite at the levels of pre-DPE but it's closer than it has been.

The biggest question mark going forwards is always going to be will he be healthy enough to do it? Because so far he hasn't been and that is unlikely to improve.