Auston Matthews has more goals and a higher gpg than Ovechkin age for age. And the gap is about to grow. Can he also make a run at 894?

[jigglysquishy]

When all is said and done, Matthews' inability to be a consistent high end point producer is what will hold him back in all time conversations.

Ovechkin at peak won an Art Ross and has multiple times top 3 in points. Brett Hull finished second to Gretzky in points. Bobby Hull and Esposito each led the league in points multiple times. Even Stamkos has 2012 and 2013.

There's a clear cut top five forwards born in the 1992-1999 window (McDavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews). He is by far the worst playmaker of the bunch. It's getting to the point where he's not good enough to be in that group.

He has by far the weakest playoff resume and performances. He can't crack the top 4 in points. And he consistently misses time.

The other four are either in or tracking to be top 50 all time. And he's just not on their level.

He's shown he's an all time great goal scorer. I hope he can turn the corner and get to that next level. And have a great playoffs and lead the league in points. But so far, I just don't think he has it in him.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The other four are either in or tracking to be top 50 all time. And he's just not on their level.

I hope he can turn the corner and get to that next level. And have a great playoffs and lead the league in points. But so far, I just don't think he has it in him.

I dunno specifics, but if he gets to like 800 goals and 3rd all time, he's going to warrant consideration.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

When all is said and done, Matthews' inability to be a consistent high end point producer is what will hold him back in all time conversations.

Ovechkin at peak won an Art Ross and has multiple times top 3 in points. Brett Hull finished second to Gretzky in points. Bobby Hull and Esposito each led the league in points multiple times. Even Stamkos has 2012 and 2013.

There's a clear cut top five forwards born in the 1992-1999 window (McDavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews). He is by far the worst playmaker of the bunch. It's getting to the point where he's not good enough to be in that group.

He has by far the weakest playoff resume and performances. He can't crack the top 4 in points. And he consistently misses time.

The other four are either in or tracking to be top 50 all time. And he's just not on their level.

He's shown he's an all time great goal scorer. I hope he can turn the corner and get to that next level. And have a great playoffs and lead the league in points. But so far, I just don't think he has it in him.

I struggle with Matthews. I agree that he's been one of the top five forwards in the league for many years now. It wouldn't surprise me if he reached 700 goals. In terms of innate talent, I think he's comparable to a hypothetical injury-free Stamkos.

I find Matthews gets overrated to an obnoxious degree by a small subset of fans. That's not his fault, of course. (But I don't find him anywhere near as strong defensively as his reputation suggests. Solidly above average, sure, but I'm still amazed he was a Selke finalist last year).

There are two obvious strikes against him (so far). Like you said, relative to his peers, he's not a great playmaker. (I know a few vocal critics cry bias when HOH makes that argument against Ovechkin, but we're being entirely consistent here). And Matthews' playoff production has been disappointing (not quite Dionne level, but probably Thornton territory). I'm skeptical that he'll suddenly turn into a strong playmaker. The jury's still out on whether he'll get it together in the spring. (In fact, I think Matthews is probably a Bossy-level goal-scorer, but the difference in their playoff production is so vast, it makes the entire comparison feel absurd).

 

[Daximus]

I dunno specifics, but if he gets to like 800 goals and 3rd all time, he's going to warrant consideration.

I think that is still a big if right now. His health has largely been an issue early on so far. He has some great scoring seasons recently but the post 30 career arc is going to be the biggest factor. If he has health issues like this early on hitting 800 is still an uphill climb.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I dunno specifics, but if he gets to like 800 goals and 3rd all time, he's going to warrant consideration.

Brett Hull retired 3rd all time in goals. This forum voted him 80th last time.

Gartner, at 700 goals and top 10 all time. He was 266 on the aggregate list.

I don't think Matthews is on a trajectory to overtake a Brett Hull career.

 

[Midnight Judges]

There are two obvious strikes against him (so far). Like you said, relative to his peers, he's not a great playmaker. (I know a few vocal critics cry bias when HOH makes that argument against Ovechkin, but we're being entirely consistent here).

You are straw manning this.

The problem arises when history forum regulars say things that are blatantly false, such as Ovechkin is a "shoot-only player" or "one-dimensional" or "only does one thing." These are all obvious and blatant falsehoods - easily debunked with objective evidence - and yet these types of statements persist and often go unchallenged by the history forum regulars.

Ovechkin is top 5 all-time in adjusted points while also being top 3 in hits during his generation. <---That sentence alone counteracts some of the most persistent viewpoints in the history forum as it pertains to Ovie.

The bias is demonstrable.

 

[Daximus]

Brett Hull retired 3rd all time in goals. This forum voted him 80th last time.

Gartner, at 700 goals and top 10 all time. He was 266 on the aggregate list.

I don't think Matthews is on a trajectory to overtake a Brett Hull career.

I think it'll be interesting. The comparison to Hull at 30 vs Matthews at 27 is trending in Matthews favour.

Hull by 30yo
588 GP - 442 G - 308 A - 750 PTS
1x Hart - 3x Hart Finalist - 4x Hart Top Ten
3x Rockets - 4x Top Three Goals - 6x Top Ten Goals
0x Ross - 1x Top Three Points - 3x Top Ten Points
3x First Team Allstar - 0x Second Team - 2x Third Team

Matthews by 27yo
575 GP - 373 G - 287 A - 660 PTS
1x Hart - 2x Hart Finalist - 4x Hart Top Ten
3x Rockets - 5x Top Three Goals - 5x Top Ten Goalss
0x Ross - 0x Top Three Points - 4x Top Ten Points
1x First Team Allstar - 1x Second Team - 1x Third Team

He's not to far behind in a generally lower scoring era. Has a pretty similar resume relative to his peers and started his career 3 years earlier and still has another 3 years until he is 30. Despite that they have pretty similar games played at this stage due to Matthews missing quite a bit of time due to injury and having to deal with the covid years.

I wouldn't be surprised if Matthews overtakes Hull in a direct 30yo to 30yo trajectory by the time he hits it in terms of overall play against his peers. He's probably got another Rocket maybe two in him by then, granted Matthews had a 111 goal head start by the age that Hull entered the league (22yo). But when it's all said and done I think Matthews could very easily track ahead of Hull. Matthews better and earlier start might make up for any longevity issues he could face compared to Hull.

 

[jigglysquishy]

There's the "common" picks for top 10 all-time in goals post-war. They split evenly into four (+1) groups when it comes to assists. Top 10 in assists for pre-1980, top 25 post-1980

The elite playmakers
Gretzky - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,5,7,9
Lemieux - 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,4,4,16
Howe - 1,1,1,2,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,6,7,8,8,9

The Esposito
Esposito - 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,5,6

The shoot-first, but still strong all around offensive
Bobby Hull - 5,6,6,7,8
Bossy - 4,6,9,11,13,13,24
Ovechkin - 6,6,10,20,29
Richard - 6,7,9,10
Selanne - 4,7,9,9,10

The sometimes pass
Brett Hull - 10,19

What is a pass?
Matthews - (best assist finish is 40th)
Bure - (best assists finish was 32nd)

You can quip about some of the names, maybe add Stamkos in there too. Jagr and Beliveau too.
But Matthews really stands out in a bad way. It's not like he's playing with guys with stone hands either. Tavares hit 47 goals. Nyland hit 40 twice and is tied for 4th right now. He has guys to pass to. He just doesn't.

 

[Daximus]

There's the "common" picks for top 10 all-time in goals post-war. They split evenly into four (+1) groups when it comes to assists. Top 10 in assists for pre-1980, top 25 post-1980

The elite playmakers
Gretzky - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,5,7,9
Lemieux - 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,4,4,16
Howe - 1,1,1,2,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,6,7,8,8,9

The Esposito
Esposito - 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,5,6

The shoot-first, but still strong all around offensive
Bobby Hull - 5,6,6,7,8
Bossy - 4,6,9,11,13,13,24
Ovechkin - 6,6,10,20,29
Richard - 6,7,9,10
Selanne - 4,7,9,9,10

The sometimes pass
Brett Hull - 10,19

What is a pass?
Matthews - (best assist finish is 40th)
Bure - (best assists finish was 32nd)

You can quip about some of the names, maybe add Stamkos in there too. Jagr and Beliveau too.
But Matthews really stands out in a bad way. It's not like he's playing with guys with stone hands either. Tavares hit 47 goals. Nyland hit 40 twice and is tied for 4th right now. He has guys to pass to. He just doesn't.

It's interesting because Hull's 82 game average up to age 27 is 43.3, Matthews is 40.9.

So on average up to similar points in their career Hull averages about 2.4 more assists per 82 games than Matthews. Yet his finishes are much higher in terms of the league.

Matthews to a similar point is averaging 28.4 even strength assist per 82. While Hull up to the same point was averaging 22.6.

Conversely Hull averages 19.7 assists per 82 on the PP while Matthews averages 12.4.

So as far as 5v5 goes Matthews seems like he actually passes a lot more and passes a lot less on the PP. That or his team just converts less on the PP than Hull's did and we know about the Leafs PP struggles. If Matthews isn't scoring, they aren't really doing much of anything.

Either way you slice it though they are pretty similar in that regard. I wouldn't call either one of them some kind of assist wizard even though the finishes indicate that Hull is better his totals are pretty bad when you consider the scoring era he played in, despite his finishes being higher.