Auston Matthews Discussion Thread

[Stonehands1990]

I was told, by you can guess who, that the Leafs cannot be shutdown. Only a goalie going into goalie mode can stop Matty and company. Unfortunately that is most goalies in the playoffs.

#Loserssince67

People who never played hockey don’t understand that the biggest effect on shooting % is goalie position and defender position. 2 things that xG doesn’t track. You can’t argue with these people

 

[notbias]

Ah yes, the "goalied" excuse. An oldie but a goodie.

M&M scored 1 goal in 7 games this playoff and 1 5on5 goal in 5 games last post season. They have simply not been successful together in 12 post season games now.

But it's just bad luck so let's not change anything.

You know that saying people like to use about doing the same things and expecting different results being insanity? I disagree, I think it's stupidity.

What excuse? You said they weren't getting scoring chances because of Danault, that is just false.

Just face it, your opinion is not backed up by logic, it is why you didn't refute anything I said.

You can say they have no finish or Price shut them down, but the fact is Danault didn't so you saying they needed to get away from him and that is on Keefe is insane.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I was told, by you can guess who, that the Leafs cannot be shutdown. Only a goalie going into goalie mode can stop Matty and company. Unfortunately that is most goalies in the playoffs.

I think I’ve figured it out. All the Leafs need to succeed in the playoffs is to face a team without a number 1 goalie, has no #1 Defenseman, and doesn’t have a selke caliber centre. Only then will the Leafs succeed in the playoffs.

 

[notbias]

#Loserssince67

People who never played hockey don’t understand that the biggest effect on shooting % is goalie position and defender position. 2 things that xG doesn’t track. You can’t argue with these people

This is true but does not apply to this situation, they didn't limit the quality of chances.

 

[Aashir]

I think I’ve figured it out. All the Leafs need to succeed in the playoffs is to face a team without a number 1 goalie, has no #1 Defenseman, and doesn’t have a selke caliber centre. Only then will the Leafs succeed in the playoffs.

I’d still bet on Ottawa and detroit in a 7 game series. Hell, Buffalo would scare me in a best of 7

 

[egd27]

What excuse? You said they weren't getting scoring chances because of Danault, that is just false.

Just face it, your opinion is not backed up by logic, it is why you didn't refute anything I said.

You can say they have no finish or Price shut them down, but the fact is Danault didn't so you saying they needed to get away from him and that is on Keefe is insane.

Is that what I said?

I thought I said.........

So you don't think more "chances" could have been realized by getting M&M away from Danault more often line matching?

Which I followed up with......

M&M scored 1 goal in 7 games this playoff and 1 5on5 goal in 5 games last post season. They have simply not been successful together in 12 post season games now.

But it's just bad luck so let's not change anything.

But I have a sense that you are really not "notbias" so please continue to believe there was nothing Keefe could have tried during 12 post season games with 2 ES and 1 PP goal from M&M, and I will continue to believe that there were things a competent NHL Coach could have.

 

[ToneDog]

I think I’ve figured it out. All the Leafs need to succeed in the playoffs is to face a team without a number 1 goalie, has no #1 Defenseman, and doesn’t have a selke caliber centre. Only then will the Leafs succeed in the playoffs.

Sounds like the Leafs to me.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Sounds like the Leafs to me.

The only opponent the Leafs can defeat is themselves. Wow. Yeah that’s about right.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

But I have a sense that you are really not "notbias" so please continue to believe there was nothing Keefe could have tried during 12 post season games with 2 ES and 1 PP goal from M&M, and I will continue to believe that there were things a competent NHL Coach could have.

Yup, Keefe is in over his head and M&M are playoff chokers. Both can, and quite frankly are, true until proven otherwise

 

[Budz]

The best thing you can do with Matthews, is play him with someone else who can put the puck in the net. So, unless you find a LW to also put the puck in the net, Marner should play with Tavares.
-Matthews needs either Nylander and a Hyman type on LW.
or
-Marner with a finisher on the LW.

Otherwise you just blanket 34 and dare the others to beat you.

In general, I feel this is a problem through the whole line up. Too many set up/checker guys/speed guys, not enough finishers.

 

[Stephen]

The best thing you can do with Matthews, is play him with someone else who can put the puck in the net. So, unless you find a LW to also put the puck in the net, Marner should play with Tavares.
-Matthews needs either Nylander and a Hyman type on LW.
or
-Marner with a finisher on the LW.

Otherwise you just blanket 34 and dare the others to beat you.

In general, I feel this is a problem through the whole line up. Too many set up/checker guys/speed guys, not enough finishers.

I imagine Auston Matthews with a playmaker like Sebastian Aho (mixing and matching at center) who can give you elite playmaking but in a more straight forward style with pace compared to Marner and a crash and bang power winger like Alex Tuch who plays with straight ahead speed to be an interesting unit. If you ever got Andrei Svechnikov out of Carolina that would also be amazing to watch.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The best thing you can do with Matthews, is play him with someone else who can put the puck in the net. So, unless you find a LW to also put the puck in the net, Marner should play with Tavares.
-Matthews needs either Nylander and a Hyman type on LW.
or
-Marner with a finisher on the LW.

Otherwise you just blanket 34 and dare the others to beat you.

In general, I feel this is a problem through the whole line up. Too many set up/checker guys/speed guys, not enough finishers.

Yup and bang on - blanket 34 like the Habs did and no worries. Keefe was either not willing to change things up, or told not to. Either way, that's concerning

 

[Racer88]

#Loserssince67

People who never played hockey don’t understand that the biggest effect on shooting % is goalie position and defender position. 2 things that xG doesn’t track. You can’t argue with these people

This is true on both counts

 

[IPS]

#Loserssince67

People who never played hockey don’t understand that the biggest effect on shooting % is goalie position and defender position. 2 things that xG doesn’t track. You can’t argue with these people

This specific debate has been rehashed 1000x on HFBoards and the advanced stats "gurus" never give way.

There were a lot of "high danger scoring chances" from the Leafs who were shooting on a Price in prime position with Weber or one of the other oafs straight in the way as well.

 

[Stonehands1990]

This specific debate has been rehashed 1000x on HFBoards and the advanced stats "gurus" never give way.

There were a lot of "high danger scoring chances" from the Leafs who were shooting on a Price in prime position with Weber or one of the other oafs straight in the way as well.

Thank you. I’ve been preaching this from the beginning and have a weekly argument with a stats guru buddy. We need hockey men who can use analytics as a tool, not reverse engineering the entire process from analytics

 

[Dreakmur]

This specific debate has been rehashed 1000x on HFBoards and the advanced stats "gurus" never give way.

There were a lot of "high danger scoring chances" from the Leafs who were shooting on a Price in prime position with Weber or one of the other oafs straight in the way as well.

High danger area means that shots from there could be dangerous.... but they aren't always. The problem is the stat assumes they all are.

 

[Gallagbi]

High danger area means that shots from there could be dangerous.... but they aren't always. The problem is the stat assumes they all are.

Not sure how much of a problem this actually is since it's the same criteria for everyone and every team.

Feels like people are overly hung up on the names instead of looking at the intent and balancing a number of factors.

When you look at the series, the Leafs carried the play and the chances. You can back that up by numbers, but my eye test certainly balanced similarly. They didn't convert though and the Habs converted some outright poor opportunities at a higher rate than us. That's the difference in a series where we outchanced and outscored our opponent but lost.

 

[Dreakmur]

Not sure how much of a problem this actually is since it's the same criteria for everyone and every team.

Toronto doesn't create as much traffic as most teams, which makes all of their shots less dangerous.

When you look at the series, the Leafs carried the play and the chances. You can back that up by numbers, but my eye test certainly balanced similarly. They didn't convert though and the Habs converted some outright poor opportunities at a higher rate than us.

They carried the play and controlled the puck, but they didn't create nearly enough quality scoring chances. Even a lot of their goals weren't quality chances - Price was pretty bad at times.

 

[Gallagbi]

Toronto doesn't create as much traffic as most teams, which makes all of their shots less dangerous.

Pretty sure rebounds is a tracked stat, how'd we compare to the Habs?

They carried the play and controlled the puck, but they didn't create nearly enough quality scoring chances. Even a lot of their goals weren't quality chances - Price was pretty bad at times.

"Enough" for what? To overcome their lack of finish? Clearly not.

To generate substantially more than the Habs? Certainly felt like it.

I'd welcome someone using the eye test to go through even just the highlights to legitimately count the number of chances, opportunities, etc.. and then compare that to something like xGF or HDCF ratios

 

[Superstar]

Hate to say it, but UFA in 3 years, baby...and NMC in the final year...show me the money!

 

[Dreakmur]

Pretty sure rebounds is a tracked stat, how'd we compare to the Habs?


"Enough" for what? To overcome their lack of finish? Clearly not.

To generate substantially more than the Habs? Certainly felt like it.

I'd welcome someone using the eye test to go through even just the highlights to legitimately count the number of chances, opportunities, etc.. and then compare that to something like xGF or HDCF ratios

During the series, I thought Campbell was making better saves than Price.

 

[Stephen]

Hate to say it, but UFA in 3 years, baby...and NMC in the final year...show me the money!

Matthews is already paid so much money. I don't think a lot of teams will be able to cleave out $15 million in cap space or whatever sensationalist number you can think of, coming out of a flat cap to show him even more money. The way it's structured now I wouldn't be surprised if we just pay him virtually the same and call it a day.

 

[Superstar]

Matthews is already paid so much money. I don't think a lot of teams will be able to cleave out $15 million in cap space or whatever sensationalist number you can think of, coming out of a flat cap to show him even more money. The way it's structured now I wouldn't be surprised if we just pay him virtually the same and call it a day.

We'll be lucky if that happens and he signs for max term, but I doubt it...chances are he's going to get $13 million plus...there will be teams bidding for his services...teams that don't have 4 forwards eating half of the cap.

 

[Gallagbi]

During the series, I thought Campbell was making better saves than Price.

Maybe. Didn't feel that way later in the series to me and that seemed to swing things. It is worth noting that things like xGF and HDCF track opportunities and not saves necessarily.

I may go back and do a deeper count from my eyes out of curiosity, but the stats seem pretty accurate on the surface to me.

 

[Stephen]

We'll be lucky if that happens and he signs for max term, but I doubt it...chances are he's going to get $13 million plus...there will be teams bidding for his services...teams that don't have 4 forwards eating half of the cap.

I'm not so sure. How many teams that aren't rebuilding have $13 million in free cap space they can blow the budget on any given summer without having to re-sign 2-3 guys?

The Leafs already have nearly $12 million committed to Matthews, so you just need to find $1 million lying around to get it done to give him whatever raise.

The other thing is if the Leafs keep underachieving in the playoffs for the next three years, the reputations of these guys won't be what they were in 2019 with endless potential.