What is the most important game to win in a series outside of game 7? Which game would you want a guaranteed win in?

[Ratsreign]

The next one....


It would always depends on where the series stands to judge “importance level” for games 2-6.
I’ve always felt game 1 was crucial. Setting the tone, so to speak.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

3 or 2

 

[Ratsreign]

You could make a case for game 2.
Afterwards it’s either halfway to a sweep, or it’s a best of 5.

 

[ES]

I see the first away win being important. Here's how they look in each game.

Game 1: It's a good start, but at the same time, the opponent still has a lot of time to recover

Game 2: The split of the first two games gives you a good position when going to your home games, but it's not possible to win the Cup in the next two.

Game 3: This gives you a 3-0-lead, which is a huge thing going forward.

Game 4: You now lead 3-1 and the next game is in your home arena. The position looks good, but it's not over.

Game 5: You claim 3-2-lead going home. The final home game of the series regardless of the result, so you want to enjoy your chance.

Games 6 and 7: It's over, you have won the series!

 

[PistolPete]

I understand the reasons for the other picks and votes. Saying game 6 is a bit smart because it's so important if you get that far. And the stats for game 4/5 are cool and interesting.

But I picked Game 1 without the slightest hesitation. I can't believe it isn't getting more votes.

Consider the fact that a game 1 win means you're instantly starting off with an advantage. None of the other picks guarantee you a lead in the series, but game 1 does.

Then add the momentum and confidence factor. Doubts for the other team can creep in early. It's just so important! Like the first goal in a game, it sets a tone.

And picking a win in game 1 means the series might not even be a long one. Picking the game 6 win means that your series went 6 games (or even 7). That's a close series no matter how you look at it. But picking the win in game 1 leaves you with the possibility of closing it out in 4 or 5. That's a big deal if this isn't the SCF and you have more games to play after this.

I've seen too many teams lose game 1 and then win it in 5 to put much stock in game 1.

 

[Jumptheshark]

whatever the 4th game needed to win the series is the answer. And whatever game ties up the series in number 2. As we have seen 3-1 leads are not safe

 

[bobholly39]

Because it's simply the one with the biggest gap (game 4) between winning and losing. At game 3, it's often 1-1 and whoever wins, takes a 2-1 lead. At game 4, the 2-1 can either become 2-2 or 3-1. 2-2 or 3-1 have series go in really opposite ways. It's either your 2-1 lead gets squashed and it's a new 2 of 3 where anything can happen. At 2-2, the momentum is definitely switched for the team tying it. At 3-1, you're almost assured to win the series. Both games 3 and 4 are important, but game 4 offers the biggest difference between winning the series or having to battle to 6 or 7 games.

A game 4 loss is the easiest loss to absorb. That's where I'm coming from - and that's why I have Game 4 very low on my list (it might be last). 4 Possible scenarios going into a game 4, and in 3 of them a loss really doesn't matter all that much.

If you're down 3-0 - Well, a game 4 loss means you're eliminated. But who cares? You're down 3-0, even if you won game 4, you'd still be out in 5 or 6...lost cause and meaningless win.

If you're up 3-0. Well, a game 4 win means you win the round - but again, who cares? Even if you lose - you have 3 more shots to close out series, and in 99.99% of cases you will. So, a loss is again not really hurtful.

If you're up 2-1 - and you lose game 4 - it's now tied 2-2. Obviously winning to go up 3-1 and take a stranglehold on the series would be great - but in terms of "absorbable losses", I'd say a game 4 loss where it ties up the series 2-2 is probably one of the easiest to absorb. You're tired 2-2 - pretty good spot to be in, it's down to a best of 3 - everything is still very possible. There are losses that hurt a LOT more than this one.

If you're down 2-1. That's the only scenario where a game 4 loss truly hurts. There's a huge difference between going down 1-3, versus being tied 2-2 after 4.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

A game 4 loss is the easiest loss to absorb.

That's patently false. If you're behind 3-1, it's almost over. Most games 3 give a series of either 3-0 or 2-1, with the latter being the most frequent state of a series after game 3. 1-2 is far easier to absorb than 1-3. You'll write just about anything. Often times when teams get tied 2-2 after leading 2-1, they lose the series. Winning game 3 gives a team a fighter's chance, being down 2-1 or being up 2-1. It's won win away from tying. Game 4 means you either tie, lose 3-1 or win 3-1. Those last two puts the teams on the brink of either winning or losing. Game 4 is series defining.