Auston Matthews Discussion Thread

[Stephen]

During the series, I thought Campbell was making better saves than Price.

The goals Campbell ended up giving up vs Montreal Game 6 OT and the Gallagher goal in Game 7 were pretty subpar even if his body of work was otherwise excellent.

 

[Dreakmur]

The goals Campbell ended up giving up vs Montreal Game 6 OT and the Gallagher goal in Game 7 were pretty subpar even if his body of work was otherwise excellent.

Agreed. Carey Price let in some softies early.

 

[Stephen]

Agreed. Carey Price let in some softies early.

I thought Price was completely beatable. Giving up 3-0 and 2-0 leads in win or die games is not what you call Conn Smythe material. That said, the Leafs always seem to struggle in those gimmie situations, so how they didn't blow to Habs out of the water in the OT periods in Game 5 and Game 6 is beyond me. Yes Price made some big saves, but they never really tilted the ice in Game 6 OT as the shot totals would indicate. They also never crashed the net or really generated that much buzz or physicality around their crease. Like good boys they were always very respectful around Mr Price.

 

[Superstar]

I'm not so sure. How many teams that aren't rebuilding have $13 million in free cap space they can blow the budget on any given summer without having to re-sign 2-3 guys?

The Leafs already have nearly $12 million committed to Matthews, so you just need to find $1 million lying around to get it done to give him whatever raise.

The other thing is if the Leafs keep underachieving in the playoffs for the next three years, the reputations of these guys won't be what they were in 2019 with endless potential.

He'll be a UFA...he's going to get his money...there are teams that could run with a $13 million centre and a $7 million winger for example...and that's still cheaper than running Matthews and Marner at their current salaries...and there will always be GMs who think he'll be a great fit on their teams...who can't use a big, 26 year old elite #1 franchise centre that could score 40 goals in his sleep? Marner is a different story.

 

[Gallagbi]

I thought Price was completely beatable. Giving up 3-0 and 2-0 leads in win or die games is not what you call Conn Smythe material. That said, the Leafs always seem to struggle in those gimmie situations, so how they didn't blow to Habs out of the water in the OT periods in Game 5 and Game 6 is beyond me. Yes Price made some big saves, but they never really tilted the ice in Game 6 OT as the shot totals would indicate. They also never crashed the net or really generated that much buzz or physicality around their crease. Like good boys they were always very respectful around Mr Price.

Bullshit. That's you judging on the results rather than the chances. They had scrambles and they had

 

[Superstar]

I thought Price was completely beatable. Giving up 3-0 and 2-0 leads in win or die games is not what you call Conn Smythe material. That said, the Leafs always seem to struggle in those gimmie situations, so how they didn't blow to Habs out of the water in the OT periods in Game 5 and Game 6 is beyond me. Yes Price made some big saves, but they never really tilted the ice in Game 6 OT as the shot totals would indicate. They also never crashed the net or really generated that much buzz or physicality around their crease. Like good boys they were always very respectful around Mr Price.

The Leafs were dominant in game 6 OT, and then Dermott decides to twirl back into his own zone leading to the turnover.

 

[Stephen]

Bullshit. That's you judging on the results rather than the chances.

Watch the period again, those opportunities were broken plays and cycling around the zone on the perimeter.

 

[Stephen]

He'll be a UFA...he's going to get his money...there are teams that could run with a $13 million centre and a $7 million winger for example...and that's still cheaper than running Matthews and Marner at their current salaries...and there will always be GMs who think he'll be a great fit on their teams...who can't use a big, 26 year old elite #1 franchise centre that could score 40 goals in his sleep? Marner is a different story.

Not really. Let's say Auston Matthews is a free agent this summer in a flat cap. How many teams who are currently contenders and attractive destinations with deep pockets are able to shed $13 million at the drop of a hat to fit him into their structure without sending out massive salary in the process?

This sort reverse Tavares doomsday fantasy needs to stop.

 

[Stephen]

The Leafs were dominant in game 6 OT, and then Dermott decides to twirl back into his own zone leading to the turnover.

The quality of their scoring chances looked like panicked scrambles more than "domination." Not a lot of clean looks, spammed shots and did most of their work on the outside.

 

[Superstar]

Not really. Let's say Auston Matthews is a free agent this summer in a flat cap. How many teams who are currently contenders and attractive destinations with deep pockets are able to shed $13 million at the drop of a hat to fit him into their structure without sending out massive salary in the process?

This sort reverse Tavares doomsday fantasy needs to stop.

If Matthews is available, teams will make room for him via trades...look what Dubas did with Marleau's contract to make room for Marner.

My point is Matthews will get his money as a UFA, whether the Leafs want to pay him or not, other teams will, and it's going to be quite a bit more than $11.634 million per year.

 

[Stephen]

If Matthews is available, teams will make room for him via trades...look what Dubas did with Marleau's contract to make room for Marner.

My point is Matthews will get his money as a UFA, whether the Leafs want to pay him or not, other teams will, and it's going to be quite a bit more than $11.634 million per year.

Again, I think this baseless doomsday forecasting based on a reverse Tavares scenario (which was only possible as a big market team coming out of a massive rebuild could throw $11 million out there).

Add a flat cap, real financial impact from years of pandemic money loss, you can probably whittle down the likely candidates to a small handful of teams that would have the money, cap space situation and enough of a team and lifestyle draw to make it happen.

If things even remotely look like they're on the upswing over the next few years, he stay.

 

[Gallagbi]

Watch the period again, those opportunities were broken plays and cycling around the zone on the perimeter.

Many chances come from cycling and broken plays. Here's the OT breakdown

1. 2 minutes in OT Kerfoot gets a partial 2on1 from the redline in for a wide open chance. Shot's low blocker, taken between the faceoff dot and hashmarks (slot)
2. Matthews has a jam play from a broken play. Meh chance at best
3. Spezza takes a good shot from the top of the circles - better look than the KK goal as he's closing in with more speed in a better position
4. Mik has a onetimer in the slot that he misses the net. Gets between two habs D, below the hashmarks infront of the crease, great look
5. Poor Rielly shot from the half-wall, just throwing it on net (we're just past 4 minutes into the period)
6. Dermott walks in from the point uncontested, decent shot from a the faceoff dot. Price makes it look easy
7. Point shot with some traffic to the net, meh.
8. Big Bogo blast from the point off a face-off icing. Traffic infront, allowed to walk into it at the top of the circles - nice pad save by Price.
9. Onetimer from Brodie (nice pass from Kerfoot) - glove save by Price. Really nice slot chance on a one-timer, looks like it may have even been tipped on the way in.
10. Rielly walks Danault (habs skiing) leads to a Matthews backhand with Price down. Really nice chance for Matthews, gets it up and the series is over
We're about 8 minutes in to the period at this points - shots are 8-0 and I have us at 4 quality chances (Kerfoot 2on1, Bogo blast, Matthews broken play and the Brodie onetimer)
11. Rielly slapshot - just gets an offensive zone face-off, likely not a SOG
12. Price misplay leads to a slot chance/rebounce from Mik. Price is out of position for a rebound shot from between the circles
13. Hyman 1on2 wrister, easy glove for price
14. Marner onetimer from the slot - nice chance and a good job by Mitch finding dead ice.
15. Bad angle Galchenyuk shot for a rebound, not much of a chance, more for a rebound
16. Matthews with a nice curl and drag wrister from the top of the slot, as we see him score from often. Price makes a good save. Basically plays out like a 3on2.
Dermott blows it

So I've got
Good chances - (1), (8), (9), (10), (14)., (16)
Okay chances (3), (4), (6), (12)
Garbage (2), (5), (7), (11), (13), (15)

Yeah - still sticking with my position that you're judging result rather than gameplay. We had odd man rushes, scramble chances, rebound chances, onetimers, and tips.

They outright blew game 5 with their stupidity, but they were very good in game 6 OT. That Habs goal likely doesn't rank as a top 5-7 opportunity in OT. A bad own deflection bites us.

 

[Trapper]

He'll be a UFA...he's going to get his money...there are teams that could run with a $13 million centre and a $7 million winger for example...and that's still cheaper than running Matthews and Marner at their current salaries...and there will always be GMs who think he'll be a great fit on their teams...who can't use a big, 26 year old elite #1 franchise centre that could score 40 goals in his sleep? Marner is a different story.

Anybody can outbid you on one UFA if you are trying to pay 4.

You have to spend your money wisely. It’s not feasible to spend half the cap on 4 forwards in the cap era. And especially without seeing playoff success of the 4.

Tampa has 2 Cups. They can move Stamkos and go with a Point/Kucherov/Hedman/Vas core.

We might need to balance the core in this manner at best salary and have money for quality depth.

 

[Stephen]

Many chances come from cycling and broken plays. Here's the OT breakdown

1. 2 minutes in OT Kerfoot gets a partial 2on1 from the redline in for a wide open chance. Shot's low blocker, taken between the faceoff dot and hashmarks (slot)
2. Matthews has a jam play from a broken play. Meh chance at best
3. Spezza takes a good shot from the top of the circles - better look than the KK goal as he's closing in with more speed in a better position
4. Mik has a onetimer in the slot that he misses the net. Gets between two habs D, below the hashmarks infront of the crease, great look
5. Poor Rielly shot from the half-wall, just throwing it on net (we're just past 4 minutes into the period)
6. Dermott walks in from the point uncontested, decent shot from a the faceoff dot. Price makes it look easy
7. Point shot with some traffic to the net, meh.
8. Big Bogo blast from the point off a face-off icing. Traffic infront, allowed to walk into it at the top of the circles - nice pad save by Price.
9. Onetimer from Brodie (nice pass from Kerfoot) - glove save by Price. Really nice slot chance on a one-timer, looks like it may have even been tipped on the way in.
10. Rielly walks Danault (habs skiing) leads to a Matthews backhand with Price down. Really nice chance for Matthews, gets it up and the series is over
We're about 8 minutes in to the period at this points - shots are 8-0 and I have us at 4 quality chances (Kerfoot 2on1, Bogo blast, Matthews broken play and the Brodie onetimer)
11. Rielly slapshot - just gets an offensive zone face-off, likely not a SOG
12. Price misplay leads to a slot chance/rebounce from Mik. Price is out of position for a rebound shot from between the circles
13. Hyman 1on2 wrister, easy glove for price
14. Marner onetimer from the slot - nice chance and a good job by Mitch finding dead ice.
15. Bad angle Galchenyuk shot for a rebound, not much of a chance, more for a rebound
16. Matthews with a nice curl and drag wrister from the top of the slot, as we see him score from often. Price makes a good save. Basically plays out like a 3on2.
Dermott blows it

So I've got
Good chances - (1), (8), (9), (10), (14)., (16)
Okay chances (3), (4), (6), (12)
Garbage (2), (5), (7), (11), (13), (15)

Yeah - still sticking with my position that you're judging result rather than gameplay. We had odd man rushes, scramble chances, rebound chances, onetimers, and tips.

They outright blew game 5 with their stupidity, but they were very good in game 6 OT. That Habs goal likely doesn't rank as a top 5-7 opportunity in OT. A bad own deflection bites us.

Nicely done piecing this together, but yeah I don't really think they were these ten bell saves Price had to make other than in high volume. I'll just cover the shots you listed as "good opportunities."

On 1, yep, good rush opportunity by Kerfoot and Price makes an early save. First of a few chances from the LW side which also includes 6 from Dermott, which I guess you didn't categorize as a good chance.

On 8, I thought the initial blast from Bogo was a nice clean look, and Price made a big blocker save but the scramble with Marner and Matthews falls into the category of more buzz than danger since both failed to control the puck (coughed up by Price) or gain any kind of body positioning to corral the rebound to get a real second look before turning it over and the puck exits.

On 9, blocked by Perry. No action required by Price.

On 10, I thought the Leafs scrambled into prime area with Rielly sort of dancing in, bit of a scramble and Matthews gets a bit on the backhand where Price is already down with the pad in position while spinning out of position. This feels like more sizzle than opportunity.

On 14, sure, good one time opportunity by Marner and good positional save by Price. Probably wrong trigger man and no Leaf player anywhere to pick up any potential rebound. In fact 2 of them have fallen to the ice, 3 Habs have boxed everything out.

On 16, Matthews opportunity is again similar to 6 actually walking off the left wing wall, but I guess you're attributing this as a high danger opportunity because it's the shooter and a screen. But Price didn't make a save there since Matthews missed.

Yeah so a few good looks but I really don't think Price stood on his head. Made the saves he needed to in an efficient way, and a lot of Toronto's buzzing wasn't super productive.

I used this video if anyone else wants to check it out as well, relive the pain:

 

[saffronleaf]

If Matthews is available, teams will make room for him via trades...look what Dubas did with Marleau's contract to make room for Marner.

My point is Matthews will get his money as a UFA, whether the Leafs want to pay him or not, other teams will, and it's going to be quite a bit more than $11.634 million per year.

not a big deal if he leaves if he hasn't accomplished any team success beforehand. if he takes the Leafs on a couple deep runs, then sure, hope the team does whatever it can to accommodate him. but if he remains a stone cold loser in terms of team success then who cares.

 

[Gallagbi]

Nicely done piecing this together, but yeah I don't really think they were these ten bell saves Price had to make other than in high volume. I'll just cover the shots you listed as "good opportunities."

On 1, yep, good rush opportunity by Kerfoot and Price makes an early save. First of a few chances from the LW side which also includes 6 from Dermott, which I guess you didn't categorize as a good chance.

On 8, I thought the initial blast from Bogo was a nice clean look, and Price made a big blocker save but the scramble with Marner and Matthews falls into the category of more buzz than danger since both failed to control the puck (coughed up by Price) or gain any kind of body positioning to corral the rebound to get a real second look before turning it over and the puck exits.

On 9, blocked by Perry. No action required by Price.

On 10, I thought the Leafs scrambled into prime area with Rielly sort of dancing in, bit of a scramble and Matthews gets a bit on the backhand where Price is already down with the pad in position while spinning out of position. This feels like more sizzle than opportunity.

On 14, sure, good one time opportunity by Marner and good positional save by Price. Probably wrong trigger man and no Leaf player anywhere to pick up any potential rebound. In fact 2 of them have fallen to the ice, 3 Habs have boxed everything out.

On 16, Matthews opportunity is again similar to 6 actually walking off the left wing wall, but I guess you're attributing this as a high danger opportunity because it's the shooter and a screen. But Price didn't make a save there since Matthews missed.

Yeah so a few good looks but I really don't think Price stood on his head. Made the saves he needed to in an efficient way, and a lot of Toronto's buzzing wasn't super productive.

I used this video if anyone else wants to check it out as well, relive the pain:

Same video I pulled from - you stopped 9 a little early. Watch until the end of the shift, they come back up ice for a Brodie onetime, low-high from Kerfoot where Petry tips it up high glove.

I tried to be stingy with my count, so I didn't count the Dermott walk-in as a prime opportunity.

There's a number of clean looks, onetimers, traffic chances and scrambles. It's not 10 breakaways, but there's a number of prime chances in a variety of ways.

Price was on positionally and sound in his movement. He caught some breaks as well, but we dominated that OT in generating quality chances and opportunities.

 

[Racer88]

Many chances come from cycling and broken plays. Here's the OT breakdown

1. 2 minutes in OT Kerfoot gets a partial 2on1 from the redline in for a wide open chance. Shot's low blocker, taken between the faceoff dot and hashmarks (slot)
2. Matthews has a jam play from a broken play. Meh chance at best
3. Spezza takes a good shot from the top of the circles - better look than the KK goal as he's closing in with more speed in a better position
4. Mik has a onetimer in the slot that he misses the net. Gets between two habs D, below the hashmarks infront of the crease, great look
5. Poor Rielly shot from the half-wall, just throwing it on net (we're just past 4 minutes into the period)
6. Dermott walks in from the point uncontested, decent shot from a the faceoff dot. Price makes it look easy
7. Point shot with some traffic to the net, meh.
8. Big Bogo blast from the point off a face-off icing. Traffic infront, allowed to walk into it at the top of the circles - nice pad save by Price.
9. Onetimer from Brodie (nice pass from Kerfoot) - glove save by Price. Really nice slot chance on a one-timer, looks like it may have even been tipped on the way in.
10. Rielly walks Danault (habs skiing) leads to a Matthews backhand with Price down. Really nice chance for Matthews, gets it up and the series is over
We're about 8 minutes in to the period at this points - shots are 8-0 and I have us at 4 quality chances (Kerfoot 2on1, Bogo blast, Matthews broken play and the Brodie onetimer)
11. Rielly slapshot - just gets an offensive zone face-off, likely not a SOG
12. Price misplay leads to a slot chance/rebounce from Mik. Price is out of position for a rebound shot from between the circles
13. Hyman 1on2 wrister, easy glove for price
14. Marner onetimer from the slot - nice chance and a good job by Mitch finding dead ice.
15. Bad angle Galchenyuk shot for a rebound, not much of a chance, more for a rebound
16. Matthews with a nice curl and drag wrister from the top of the slot, as we see him score from often. Price makes a good save. Basically plays out like a 3on2.
Dermott blows it

So I've got
Good chances - (1), (8), (9), (10), (14)., (16)
Okay chances (3), (4), (6), (12)
Garbage (2), (5), (7), (11), (13), (15)

Yeah - still sticking with my position that you're judging result rather than gameplay. We had odd man rushes, scramble chances, rebound chances, onetimers, and tips.

They outright blew game 5 with their stupidity, but they were very good in game 6 OT. That Habs goal likely doesn't rank as a top 5-7 opportunity in OT. A bad own deflection bites us.

I’m pretty sure results are what matters. Results determine who wins and moves on

 

[Stephen]

Same video I pulled from - you stopped 9 a little early. Watch until the end of the shift, they come back up ice for a Brodie onetime, low-high from Kerfoot where Petry tips it up high glove.

There's a number of clean looks, onetimers, traffic chances and scrambles.

Price was on positionally and sound in his movement. He caught some breaks as well, but we dominated that OT in generating quality chances and opportunities.

I guess my feeling on the OT is Price didn't have to be Ed Belfour 2004 vs Ottawa good, where so many scoring chances ended up being goal line stands, chaos in the crease, completely besieged, and our chances weren't the "we have them on the ropes" slicing and dicing cross crease passes (other than the Matthews to Marner play). Cause when we isolate each of those good opportunities they were good looks and came in high volume but something was missing: the sweat equity to really be in position to get some garbage goals. And felt like could have beaten Price had they found that gear.

 

[Gallagbi]

I guess my feeling on the OT is Price didn't have to be Ed Belfour 2004 vs Ottawa good, where so many scoring chances ended up being goal line stands, chaos in the crease, completely besieged, and our chances weren't the "we have them on the ropes" slicing and dicing cross crease passes (other than the Matthews to Marner play). Cause when we isolate each of those good opportunities they were good looks and came in high volume but something was missing. And felt like could have beaten Price.

The goal is really all that was missing with tips, onetimers, traffic, clean looks and net plays. It's better chances than we saw TB getting praised for last night.

It wasn't a time where we could create a ton of havoc infront. Price did well to prevent a lot of rebounds and swallow everything on the quality looks. But they did slice a number of opportunities to get Price moving and force him into good saves - like the 2on1, Brodie tip, Dermott glove, Bogo blocker and Marner onetimer.

I will also say the Leafs should have done that all game instead of just ~2 periods, but I won't dismiss that strong play in OT and say they didn't generate

 

[Dekes For Days]

Game 6 OT:

CF%: 77%
FF%: 89%
SF%: 87%
SCF%: 81%
HDCF%: 100%
xGF%: 88%

"not tilted"

 

[Bluelines]

Enjoyed this article, the guy speaks a lot of truths:


The Most Annoying Thing About the Toronto Maple Leafs


The most annoying thing about the Toronto Maple Leafs is that there is really nothing wrong with their team.

When a team has a weakness you can complain about it and give yourself some satisfaction knowing that it will likely be addressed. But the Toronto Maple Leafs are a team that just about won the President’s Trophy, and who have had a positive expected goals rating in 11 straight playoff games.

The Leafs lost because their two best players – Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner – went cold at the absolute worst time, and because of some untimely injuries. They had great goaltending, defense, and depth scoring. They had solid penalty killing. The only thing that they didn’t have was offense from the players who almost always provide offense.

more of the article here : The Most Annoying Thing About the Toronto Maple Leafs

 

[Mickey Marner]

Not really. Let's say Auston Matthews is a free agent this summer in a flat cap. How many teams who are currently contenders and attractive destinations with deep pockets are able to shed $13 million at the drop of a hat to fit him into their structure without sending out massive salary in the process?

This sort reverse Tavares doomsday fantasy needs to stop.

I don't think he'd get 13 this year, but I think he'll get it in three years. I expect him to be the highest paid player in the league in 2024-25.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Anybody can outbid you on one UFA if you are trying to pay 4.

You have to spend your money wisely. It’s not feasible to spend half the cap on 4 forwards in the cap era. And especially without seeing playoff success of the 4.

Tampa has 2 Cups. They can move Stamkos and go with a Point/Kucherov/Hedman/Vas core.

We might need to balance the core in this manner at best salary and have money for quality depth.

I highly doubt he makes it to UFA without an extension

 

[FraumBallard]

Not really. Let's say Auston Matthews is a free agent this summer in a flat cap. How many teams who are currently contenders and attractive destinations with deep pockets are able to shed $13 million at the drop of a hat to fit him into their structure without sending out massive salary in the process?

This sort reverse Tavares doomsday fantasy needs to stop.

Hmmm.
I think 25-28 teams would move whatever they had to in order to get a #1 Superstar Center.
Matthews really only has one flaw.
Smiling while getting ragdolled is a horrible look.
That’s on Wonder Boy though.
He has nurtured this team.
Shameful and embarrassing.

 

[Bluelines]

Hmmm.
I think 25-28 teams would move whatever they had to in order to get a #1 Superstar Center.
Matthews really only has one flaw.
Smiling while getting ragdolled is a horrible look.
That’s on Wonder Boy though.
He has nurtured this team.
Shameful and embarrassing.

That is a stupid take.

What else is he supposed to do?