This narrative is getting old. 5x5 is not the whole game and jt and Marner, though not optimum were contributing just fine. The team could barely win without Marner playing.
Yeah, 5v5 isn't the whole game, but for the Leafs this season it has been 81% of the game for them. You don't spend a whole lot of time in 6v5, 4v4, 5v4, 4v5, etc, situations overall. Of the 270 goals in Leafs games this year, 67% have occurred at 5v5. So yeah, 5v5 play is pretty important, and there was a long stretch of games where Marner & Tavares were both bad at 5v5. Before Keefe took over, Marner & Tavares had 4 points each at 5v5. In contrast, Matthews & Nylander had combined for 29 over that time span. At a rate level, they were 15th & 16th on the team production wise, with 1.06 and 1.05 points/60. In contrast, Matthews & Nylander were 2nd & 3rd on the team, at 2.74 and 2.38, respectively.
Marner had a 48% xGF, and Tavares 46%. Marner had 44% of high danger chances, and Tavares 47%. Their on-ice contributions during the part that takes up 80% of the game were poor by just average standards, let alone, the standards you should hold your top line to. I'm sorry, but if those numbers are "just fine"...you're not going to win many hockey games. They were decent on the PP, with 12 points between them, but it's not like they were doing so great they made up for their poor 5v5 play. The Leafs powerplay was kind of ass before Keefe came along, it's not like it was some huge gamebreaker keeping them winning.
That being said, nylander has played way better hockey with Jt and Matthews seems to be playing better with Marner. The line switch at best ends up as a net neutral for Marner and Jt but elevating AM and Nylander unlocks a lot of potential for this team. Nylander is playing waaaayyyy better and Matthew's now has a really strong chance for Rocket glory. Net net, the team is better right now. I was against splitting WN and AM up because I was worried that Willy would be put in a situation where he lost confidence. The team needs him to be good. Happy he is succeeding but a lot of it has to do with the guys you claim were being carried.
I'd agree with most of what you say here. Granted, it has only been small samples, but I do think that the Marner/Matthews & Nylander/Tavares combinations make more sense, and so far (again, in small samples), have produced better results. I wouldn't go so far as to say Nylander is playing "waaaayyyy better"...he's been pretty amazing all season long, as impressive as his last few games have been. Aside from a recent dip, Matthews has been on a torrid goal scoring pace all season, regardless of whether Marner or Nylander is on his right side.
Not sure where you're getting the idea that I said Matthews was carrying anybody? I did say that his line was essentially "carrying" the Leafs, intended in a hyperbolic fashion, as really, for a long stretch of games, they were the only line consistently making positive contributions on a night to night basis. But I never said that Matthews was carrying Nylander, Johnsson, or both, or anybody else for that matter.