News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Martin Skoula]

Winnipeg Ian.. now there's a name I haven't heard in a long ass time. I'm almost kinda glad to have you back, at least you can provide an intelligent conversation the two guys liking your posts can't.

I didn't say Matthews should be paid like Kempe, I said he's not $8m better than him. And I stand by that. Is Matthews better than players in that tier? Yes, absolutely. Is he $6-8m better? Absolutely not. And I don't think he's $4m better than Aho either.

Why do MacKinnon and McDavid have different rules? Oh I dunno, how about because of this...

Mackinnon - 100 in 77GP
Rantanen - 87 in 70GP
McDavid - 75 in 49GP
Draisaitl - 77 in 49GP
Pastrnak - 79 in 77GP
.
.
.
Matthews - 44 in 50GP

(Players like Aho and Guentzal who are not even regular season comparables, are also well above Matthews. And AM doesn't even qualify for this list Active NHL Players - Playoff Points per Game Leaders )

Those aren't $13.5m AAV numbers no matter how much regular season hardware he has. So if you want to make Matthews the highest paid player in the league to collect a rocket richard trophy every year, and subsequently play 7 games in the playoffs be my guest. But thats not a player thats going to help you win when it counts relative to his cap hit. Hell, if if I could rub a lamp and a genie told me Matthews is guaranteed to win the rocket every year of his contract, I still wouldn't want him signed to it unless the playoff performances improve.

McDavid and Draisaitl, two players better than Matthews who actually perform in the playoffs and aren't overpaid, are on a team that still can't get it done. So why do we think paying a worse player even more money is going magically win a cup? Unless you don't care about playoffs, in which case theres no point continuing this discussion.

Is 9th among active players in G/Gp with half of those actually healthy ok?

Also those two get outscored at ES in the playoffs because they refuse to even pretend to play defense. Who cares if they score 3 points each in a game when they allow 4 against because they’re cherry-picking? Unless they get ample PP opportunities their ES minutes come out even at best. The other reason they don’t win is that they’re spending almost 15 million a year on Nurse and Campbell who’s impact can be replaced for half of that cost.

Overpayments to shitty players hurt teams infinitely more than overpaying your good players by a mil.

 

[JKG33]

I'm not sure I'm glad I'm here yet.

I mean, then neither is MacKinnon or McDavid. These players (including Matthews) are in a different stratosphere than Aho.

MacKinnon - 1.14
Matthews - 1.11

First, his playoff performances have improved, see the stat above. No one wants to talk about that, but it's true. If Treliving has done the things that make us a Cup finalist and signs Matthews for 13.5 x 5, the overall narrative as we know it now is that of the Muppets, it's Gonzo.

I know you and Stephen don't want to admit it, but salaries are based of regular season stats (because only 14.4% of players actually ever win the Cup). So let's look at four players.

Player A - 0 40 goal seasons, 0 100 point seasons, 1 major award, once top 5 in Hart (no wins).
Player B - 2 40 goal seasons, 1 100 point seasons, 2 major awards, 4 top 5 Hart (no wins).
Player C - 3 40 goal seasons, 6 100 point seasons, 13 major awards, 7 top 5 in Hart (3 wins).
Player D - 5 40 goal seasons, 1 100 point season, 5 major awards, 2 top 5 in Hart (1 win).

Stats alone bro, though we can all easily see McDavid here, because that's what contract negotiations are based on. What's the hierarchy? I think we can all agree C, D, B, A, (though I doubt some will admit it because they know who is who). What do you think the order of salary is? Mr. C should be well in front, but he's not, he's not even in front.

McDavid is better than everyone, by far. No one is disputing that. But you know what he doesn't make? The highest AAV in the league. Draisaitl isn't, but he can sign an extension next off-season, do you think he's going to be seeking less than 13? He's not. Do you think he's going to get more than Matthews? I do. And McDavid is going to get more than both the year after that.

You'll either have to read up or ask JKG, I've no idea why he wants to base anyone's salary off of one year, let alone one that they were injured in.

Lol welcome to the shitshow I suppose.

So now we're cutting down the already small-ish sample size in half to prove a point? First you want to use Matthews whole career to show he's worth the absurd cap hit, then when I show career playoff stats we want to shorten the sample size? Pick one.

When Aho has outperformed Matthews over their careers in the playoffs, I wouldn't call that Matthews being on a different stratosphere. That however could be used to describe his regular season comparables when playoff PPG are brought up.

I'm not arguing that players get paid based off regular season performances (unfortunately). I'm arguing that it would be stupid to spend that much on Matthews when he's so far behind his AAV comparables in the playoffs, on top of being so far behind them last regular season. MacKinnon can have a down year because he's still up there in playoff numbers. Matthews can not because he isn't.

Matthews will get paid, there's no doubt about it. I'd just hate to be the team to do it since my goal is to win a cup.

Marner is way ahead of Tkachuk on this, I am assuming you're fine with him making a lot more than the 9.5 Tkachuk makes?

For how much people harp on Matthews/Marner being playoff no shows, it is crazy that amongst active players with 20+ games, Matthews is 19th and Marner is 16th in PPG...

some many more terrible players than Marner/Matthews... Tkachuk, Barkov, ROR, Kuznetsov, Stamkos, Pavelski, Robertson, Panarin, Stone, Barzal, PLD, Connor, Laine, Hyman... the list goes on.

If you actually look at it, it becomes much clearer that yes, we should hold them to a higher standard, but they are closer to the top than the bottom of the pile.

If you're going to argue that Marner is a better playoff player than Tkachuk I'm not even going to bother. Clearly you missed these last playoffs where one of them helped carry his team to the finals

Is 9th among active players in G/Gp with half of those actually healthy ok?

Also those two get outscored at ES in the playoffs because they refuse to even pretend to play defense. Who cares if they score 3 points each in a game when they allow 4 against because they’re cherry-picking? Unless they get ample PP opportunities their ES minutes come out even at best. The other reason they don’t win is that they’re spending almost 15 million a year on Nurse and Campbell who’s impact can be replaced for half of that cost.

Overpayments to shitty players hurt teams infinitely more than overpaying your good players by a mil.

Except it's not overpaying a star by a million, when he's being outproduced by players making $2-$7m less

 

[rocketman588]

Lol welcome to the shitshow I suppose.

So now we're cutting down the already small-ish sample size in half to prove a point? First you want to use Matthews whole career to show he's worth the absurd cap hit, then when I show career playoff stats we want to shorten the sample size? Pick one.

When Aho has outperformed Matthews over their careers in the playoffs, I wouldn't call that Matthews being on a different stratosphere. That however could be used to describe his regular season comparables when playoff PPG are brought up.

I'm not arguing that players get paid based off regular season performances (unfortunately). I'm arguing that it would be stupid to spend that much on Matthews when he's so far behind his AAV comparables in the playoffs, on top of being so far behind them last regular season. MacKinnon can have a down year because he's still up there in playoff numbers. Matthews can not because he isn't.

Matthews will get paid, there's no doubt about it. I'd just hate to be the team to do it since my goal is to win a cup.


If you're going to argue that Marner is a better playoff player than Tkachuk I'm not even going to bother. Clearly you missed these last playoffs where one of them helped carry his team to the finals

He's gonna get paid the question is how much

If he's going to go full willy nylander and want a massive overpayment and a market set solely because he got to last time in addition to trade protection and a 3/4 year deal then no I don't think we should do it (Mitch also he's still not even playing to his value relative to the league)

If it's like 13.3 over 4 yeah I can live with it

I think up to 13.5 is liveable anything over would be frustrating

Our biggest issue is that Dubas gave him literally ALL the leverage in this negotiation in addition to giving him everything he wanted. So he has our balls in a vice grip

 

[ACC1224]

Guess we know why he wants 14 mil a year now...

Getting a house that's worth more then your multi year contract when you also have to rent/buy in one of the most expensive markets in north America doesn't seem like it's the key to success. But I'm also not a millionaire

That can’t be right

 

[rocketman588]

That can’t be right

If it is maybe he's getting a massive tax incentive or something who knows. If he's buying it banking on massive future earnings yeah we're pretty f***ed lol

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Shorter term for Matty is likely better play for team .. dude has weight gain issues and like last year we saw it took him forever to get back to playing weight .. i think at some point he will balloon and a long term deal is gonna look brutal

Weight gain issue ? Really ?

 

[Gabriel426]

I just can't envision these guys maintaining their current level of production into their mid 30s. Personally, I prefer the wait and see approach.

Problem is that the wait and see approach will still end up costing the Leafs more unless they completely fall off the cliff. Let’s say AM‘s final season’s number on this next deal is the same as this past season. While the cap jumped from 83.5mil to 92mil, and players like Drai, McD, Bedard, Rantanen, Makar and even EP signed between 12-14 and McD at 15mil. What do you think AM will be asking and for how many years?
I doubt it will be less than his next deal unless his next deal is 14mil. I highly doubt he will take a 3 yrs deal at that stage to help the Leafs. So even at 32 yrs old-which means his next deal is 5yrs, AM will ask for a lot with longer terms. Would much rather he signs for 8 yrs now and part ways with him at 35 if he doesn’t want to take a 7-8mil deal to retire as a Leafs than paying him over 12mil/yr for his retirement contract.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Lol welcome to the shitshow I suppose.

So now we're cutting down the already small-ish sample size in half to prove a point? First you want to use Matthews whole career to show he's worth the absurd cap hit, then when I show career playoff stats we want to shorten the sample size? Pick one.

When Aho has outperformed Matthews over their careers in the playoffs, I wouldn't call that Matthews being on a different stratosphere. That however could be used to describe his regular season comparables when playoff PPG are brought up.

I'm not arguing that players get paid based off regular season performances (unfortunately). I'm arguing that it would be stupid to spend that much on Matthews when he's so far behind his AAV comparables in the playoffs, on top of being so far behind them last regular season. MacKinnon can have a down year because he's still up there in playoff numbers. Matthews can not because he isn't.

Matthews will get paid, there's no doubt about it. I'd just hate to be the team to do it since my goal is to win a cup.


If you're going to argue that Marner is a better playoff player than Tkachuk I'm not even going to bother. Clearly you missed these last playoffs where one of them helped carry his team to the finals


Except it's not overpaying a star by a million, when he's being outproduced by players making $2-$7m less

Ok so if we had him float at the blue line and score twice as much but give up 3 times as many the other way everything would be fixed and he’d be worth even more than 13 mil?

 

[JKG33]

Ok so if we had him float at the blue line and score twice as much but give up 3 times as many the other way everything would be fixed and he’d be worth even more than 13 mil?

I don't entirely disagree, but at the same time McDavid's Oilers have won a lot more series than the Leafs so something they're doing must be kind of working

 

[notbias]

If you're going to argue that Marner is a better playoff player than Tkachuk I'm not even going to bother. Clearly you missed these last playoffs where one of them helped carry his team to the finals

2 series sample size? Interesting...

I watch Bobrovsky carry the team and Tkachuk be good for half the series.

Does one playoff eliminate all the other bad ones? Over the last 3 years both Matthews/Marner are PPG in the playoffs, you eliminate their younger years and they start to look a lot better.

I don't entirely disagree, but at the same time McDavid's Oilers have won a lot more series than the Leafs so something they're doing must be kind of working

A lot more? They've won 3 more series.

Won 1 round twice.
Won 2 rounds once.
Lost first round twice.
Missed playoffs 3 times.

Honestly, are they that much better?

 

[Martin Skoula]

I don't entirely disagree, but at the same time McDavid's Oilers have won a lot more series than the Leafs so something they're doing must be kind of working

Realistically it’s the powerplay. Not to take anything away from it because it’s truly impressive and Matthews hasn’t been nearly effective enough on ours, but there’s a reason they struggle later into series when the whistles go away compared to game 1 when the teams are just starting to get to know each other. Plus facing a freshly rebuilt Kings team twice doesn’t hurt, it’s vet teams that can exploit their lack of structure at ES.

If McDavid and Kempe run up 5 points a game against each other on Campbell/whoever is in net for LA these days for 7 games I don’t think that really tells us how much a player in a regular scoring level series should earn relative to them.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

2 series sample size? Interesting...

I watch Bobrovsky carry the team and Tkachuk be good for half the series.

Does one playoff eliminate all the other bad ones? Over the last 3 years both Matthews/Marner are PPG in the playoffs, you eliminate their younger years and they start to look a lot better.



A lot more? They've won 3 more series.

Won 1 round twice.
Won 2 rounds once.
Lost first round twice.

Does playing in the western conference mean anything?

Missed playoffs 3 times.

Honestly, are they that much better?

 

[mkatcherin00]

Realistically it’s the powerplay. Not to take anything away from it because it’s truly impressive and Matthews hasn’t been nearly effective enough on ours, but there’s a reason they struggle later into series when the whistles go away compared to game 1 when the teams are just starting to get to know each other. Plus facing a freshly rebuilt Kings team twice doesn’t hurt, it’s vet teams that can exploit their lack of structure at ES.

If McDavid and Kempe run up 5 points a game against each other on Campbell/whoever is in net for LA these days for 7 games I don’t think that really tells us how much a player in a regular scoring level series should earn relative to them.

The Oilers lost b/c of goaltending. Simple as that. They out chanced Vegas and were up every game. Got terrible goaltending.

 

[centipede2233]

Lol welcome to the shitshow I suppose.

So now we're cutting down the already small-ish sample size in half to prove a point? First you want to use Matthews whole career to show he's worth the absurd cap hit, then when I show career playoff stats we want to shorten the sample size? Pick one.

When Aho has outperformed Matthews over their careers in the playoffs, I wouldn't call that Matthews being on a different stratosphere. That however could be used to describe his regular season comparables when playoff PPG are brought up.

I'm not arguing that players get paid based off regular season performances (unfortunately). I'm arguing that it would be stupid to spend that much on Matthews when he's so far behind his AAV comparables in the playoffs, on top of being so far behind them last regular season. MacKinnon can have a down year because he's still up there in playoff numbers. Matthews can not because he isn't.

Matthews will get paid, there's no doubt about it. I'd just hate to be the team to do it since my goal is to win a cup.


If you're going to argue that Marner is a better playoff player than Tkachuk I'm not even going to bother. Clearly you missed these last playoffs where one of them helped carry his team to the finals


Except it's not overpaying a star by a million, when he's being outproduced by players making $2-$7m less

This is so true. Jack Hughes will likely put up similar numbers to matthews year to year, and make 5.5 million less. That’s why Toronto isn’t winning a cup with matthews at 13.5 mil when other teams have players making $5 mil less and can produce 80-100% of matthews, and maybe even better

 

[Martin Skoula]

The Oilers lost b/c of goaltending. Simple as that. They out chanced Vegas and were up every game. Got terrible goaltending.

McDavid and Drai have horrendous impacts on shots against, goals against, and high danger chances/goals against with nearly everyone they play with on their team. Playing with McDavid/Drai results in your goals for and goals against going up by a goal a game, let’s not pretend they’re playing an honest defensive game and just getting unlucky.

They have bad goaltending so they make the best with what they got and try to win 7-6 coin flips or hope their powerplay outperforms their PK. On a normal team with a normal defensive structure and an average goalie, McDavid and Drai would still probably be the best playoff scorers in the league but by a much smaller margin. They would not put up 2+ PPG for long stretches anywhere else, a chunk of that production is a result of their coach having no choice but to let them float and hope for the best.

 

[andora]

The Oilers lost b/c of goaltending. Simple as that. They out chanced Vegas and were up every game. Got terrible goaltending.

There was a lot more to it than goaltending

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

This is so true. Jack Hughes will likely put up similar numbers to matthews year to year, and make 5.5 million less. That’s why Toronto isn’t winning a cup with matthews at 13.5 mil when other teams have players making $5 mil less and can produce 80-100% of matthews, and maybe even better

Perfect (Matthews) is the enemy of good (Hughes). By wanting the absolute best at a position and not factoring in cost...you end up having the issues that we do. Same goes for Marner. I would rather have a consistent 80pt guy at 8M than pay $3M more for 19pts extra that MM would provide.

 

[centipede2233]

Perfect (Matthews) is the enemy of good (Hughes). By wanting the absolute best at a position and not factoring in cost...you end up having the issues that we do. Same goes for Marner. I would rather have a consistent 80pt guy at 8M than pay $3M more for 19pts extra that MM would provide.

Also, winning in the playoffs you need heart, determination and a willingness to do whatever it takes. I don’t get that from Matthews, Marner or Nylander. I’m not saying they are not talented, they are, but as you’ve seen in the playoffs, it’s chippy, ruthless and down right war. Paying matthews 13.5 mil on a down year of 40 goals with a nagging wrist injury and not scoring one goal in rd 2 is lunacy.

 

[Maple Leaf]

You could probably get rid of matthews and rebuild

 

[Stephen]

McDavid and Drai have horrendous impacts on shots against, goals against, and high danger chances/goals against with nearly everyone they play with on their team. Playing with McDavid/Drai results in your goals for and goals against going up by a goal a game, let’s not pretend they’re playing an honest defensive game and just getting unlucky.

They have bad goaltending so they make the best with what they got and try to win 7-6 coin flips or hope their powerplay outperforms their PK. On a normal team with a normal defensive structure and an average goalie, McDavid and Drai would still probably be the best playoff scorers in the league but by a much smaller margin. They would not put up 2+ PPG for long stretches anywhere else, a chunk of that production is a result of their coach having no choice but to let them float and hope for the best.

The raw points advantage that McDavid and even Draisaitl had over Auston Matthews last year was so significant, I would take the raw points and special team junk stats all day long.

The difference between Leon Draisaitl and Auston Matthews in raw points was 43, with Drai outpointing Matthews 128 to 85. Yeah, Leon Draisaitl is a PP cookie monster, plays shit defense and cherry picks all day long and Matthews shot blocks, plays defense yada yada...

In comparison,the difference in points between Auston Matthews and the real world Selke winning Patrice Bergeron's raw points was only 27, with a points differential of 85 to 58.

Just like I'm never going to take Bergeron's intangibles, defensive package over Matthews and his game, difference between Draisaitl's flaws to points to whatever Matthews is doing defensively is too good to criticize.

Long story short, Matthews needs to score more points and get back to the 2021-22 level. I don't want to see injured wrist theories, conditioning concerns, shot blocking metrics and high danger chances against. Bread and butter is party offense.

 

[Stephen]

Also, winning in the playoffs you need heart, determination and a willingness to do whatever it takes. I don’t get that from Matthews, Marner or Nylander. I’m not saying they are not talented, they are, but as you’ve seen in the playoffs, it’s chippy, ruthless and down right war. Paying matthews 13.5 mil on a down year of 40 goals with a nagging wrist injury and not scoring one goal in rd 2 is lunacy.

The thing I've been most disappointed in the progression of the Matthews, Marner, Nylander Leafs over the past 3 seasons is they never hit that pre-championship, full throttle level you saw out of Colorado in 2020, 2021 and 2022. That team looked like they were playing through the end boards, wanted to run up the score and always pushing the pace. I see Edmonton trying to hit those marks. I saw Florida do that in 2022 but miss their championship target, then regain it in 2023 on their finals run.

This team has just been too mid tempo, one too many plays, too many regroups, too much east west, always playing at a comfortable pace.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The raw points advantage that McDavid and even Draisaitl had over Auston Matthews last year was so significant, I would take the raw points and special team junk stats all day long.

The difference between Leon Draisaitl and Auston Matthews in raw points was 43, with Drai outpointing Matthews 128 to 85. Yeah, Leon Draisaitl is a PP cookie monster, plays shit defense and cherry picks all day long and Matthews shot blocks, plays defense yada yada...

In comparison,the difference in points between Auston Matthews and the real world Selke winning Patrice Bergeron's raw points was only 27, with a points differential of 85 to 58.

Just like I'm never going to take Bergeron's intangibles, defensive package over Matthews and his game, difference between Draisaitl's flaws to points to whatever Matthews is doing defensively is too good to criticize.

Long story short, Matthews needs to score more points and get back to the 2021-22 level. I don't want to see injured wrist theories, conditioning concerns, shot blocking metrics and high danger chances against. Bread and butter is party offense.

It’s not what Matthews is doing defensively that’s the issue, I wouldn’t mind if he gave some of that up for offense as long as the gain in offense was greater than the loss in goals against. I just don’t see how going 5-5 at ES is any better than 2-2, the net impact on the game is the same. Matthews needs to convert better on the PP, but that’s a function of his wrist being good enough to be able to be a threat from distance and open up space for others.

I want the player to outscore his opposition by the biggest amount possible, going 2-0 is better than going 5-7 unless we’re talking about a fantasy league. McDavid and Draisaitl in a normal system putting up 1.3 PPG instead of 2 but not getting outscored at ES would be a net gain for the Oilers.

 

[Stephen]

It’s not what Matthews is doing defensively that’s the issue, I wouldn’t mind if he gave some of that up for offense as long as the gain in offense was greater than the loss in goals against. I just don’t see how going 5-5 at ES is any better than 2-2, the net impact on the game is the same. Matthews needs to convert better on the PP, but that’s a function of his wrist being good enough to be able to be a threat from distance and open up space for others.

I want the player to outscore his opposition by the biggest amount possible, going 2-0 is better than going 5-7 unless we’re talking about a fantasy league. McDavid and Draisaitl in a normal system putting up 1.3 PPG instead of 2 but not getting outscored at ES would be a net gain for the Oilers.

For me, I just want to make sure our cap is allocated to Matthews and he's just giving us massive, dependable production. The more reliable it is and in high volume, it gives us a clearer picture what to surround him with.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

You could probably get rid of matthews and rebuild

You could. I would like them to but I do acknowledge that's an extreme opinion.

But they won't. Marketing is more important than anything else to this organization.

 

[Martin Skoula]

For me, I just want to make sure our cap is allocated to Matthews and he's just giving us massive, dependable production. The more reliable it is and in high volume, it gives us a clearer picture what to surround him with.

Ok but if you’re just min-maxing for his one-way production then we should be sticking him and Marner at the opponents blueline all game and telling the defense to get them the puck at all costs even if we’re getting scored on twice as often in the process. If the puck gets turned over in the offensive zone, they are forbidden from doing anything that could waste their energy other than getting onside for their next breakaway attempt.

On top of that we should be playing our fourth line 15 minutes a night against the opponents top line so we can free up more minutes for the top line to cherry pick against bad units on the other team.

I’m just not sure I see what turning our players into Florida era Bure does for our odds of winning, it seems like it’s more relevant for winning online arguments about how fairly paid they are and where nerds in their parents basements rank them on their lists.