News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[kb]

Every time I see this title it bugs me, it’s a privilege for this guy to play here. He wouldn’t get near the ad revenue, exposure elsewhere, he plays for a legit contender, he’s pampered beyond belief and we gave him a sweetheart deal. Oh please please, we are so lucky that you’re willing to come back and make out like a bandit like this is some backwater franchise. Sign a fair deal or get lost.

Odd take, considering this is what the poster inferred, and not what AM said. He said he wanted to stay and sign a fair contract, not that "he wasn't planning on leaving".

 

[PromisedLand]

Hypothetically suppose Leafs let Matthews walk as UFA - push comes to shove (yes I know its not ideal)

What do people expect Matthews would get on a max 7 year deal from any other team(s)?

 

[Sypher04]

Hypothetically suppose Leafs let Matthews walk as UFA - push comes to shove (yes I know its not ideal)

What do people expect Matthews would get on a max 7 year deal from any other team(s)?

14+

 

[Boxscore]

What do people expect Matthews would get on a max 7 year deal from any other team(s)?

Depends on the team.

A desperate team starved for talent may be willing to give Matthews 14.5 - 15 million x 7 and end up winning nothing because of it. But they'll be relevant, sell tickets and merch, and have a marquee player to market to their fanbase. Some GM will also use this as a notch on their belt. But again, that team will be flawed and won't win anything important.

A team like Boston, Florida, Tampa, Colorado, New Jersey, or Ottawa would likely only be willing to pay him 12.5 -13 million x 7 so they could ice a competitive team. Ironically, this is the camp the Leafs should be in. Just because a desperate bottom-feeder is willing to overpay Matthews (for the wrong reasons) doesn't mean the Leafs need to. We can't let a crummy team like the Sharks dictate how we run our internal cap.

 

[PromisedLand]

14+

Depends on the team.

A desperate team starved for talent may be willing to give Matthews 14.5 - 15 million x 7 and end up winning nothing because of it. But they'll be relevant, sell tickets and merch, and have a marquee player to market to their fanbase. Some GM will also use this as a notch on their belt. But again, that team will be flawed and won't win anything important.

A team like Boston, Florida, Tampa, Colorado, New Jersey, or Ottawa would likely only be willing to pay him 12.5 -13 million x 7 so they could ice a competitive team. Ironically, this is the camp the Leafs should be in. Just because a desperate bottom-feeder is willing to overpay Matthews (for the wrong reasons) doesn't mean the Leafs need to. We can't let a crummy team like the Sharks dictate how we run our internal cap.

Hypothetical Lower Bound
14 x 7 = 98M approx with someone else
12.25 x 8 = 98M approx with the leafs


If the hypothetical upper bound is say 15M then
15X7 = 105M with someone else
13.1x8 = 105M with the leafs

I doubt anybody is going to pay Matthews anything over 15M in the UFA market

So matthews' cap hit on a long term deal should be between

lower bound: 98M and upper bouond 105M

i.e. 12.25AAV to 13.1 AAV for 8 years with the leafs
OR
14AAV to 15AAV on a 7 year deal with other NHL teams

If Matthews is looking for anything more than 13.1 AAV he is free to seek it from the UFA market. I wonder how many teams can front load the contract and pay 80 to 90 percent of the lumpsum in signing bonuses.

EDIT: Some additional notes:

- Given Matthews' injury history I would assume that it would be in his self interest to sign a guaranteed long term deal now instead of risking his future earnings.

so if 15AAV is the max Matthews can get from the UFA market on the long term deal for a total 105M; for Leafs it is 13.1M on 8 years for a grand total of approx 105M

PLUS Matthews right now earns on average 3M to 4M per year from his off-ice earnings mostly because he is a Leaf. Which IMO will jump to anywhere between 5 to 6 million per year in future on average.

Is he willing to forgo that extra money too by not being a Leaf; besides the front loaded signing bonuses? If he is for wanting a 14 AAV+ on the 8 yr deal from the Leafs then thanks but no thanks Auston, seek that AAV from the UFA Market there buddy!

We (i.e. Leafs) can play that game too son

 

[leafsfan5]

Can you name the last Hart trophy winner who signed a new deal within the last year?

All this imbecilic talk about peers and their respective contracts.

McDavid signed his contract 6 years ago? Draisaitl did as well.
Mackinnon hasn't won a single thing for himself - his team won a cup, a team that was led by a defenseman outscoring the centre that is being put on a pedestal.
He, despite never winning any serious hardware (Calder doesn't really count) just became the highest paid player in the league. A contract that will take him into his mid to late 30's.
A player whose first 3 seasons were abysmal for a 1st overall player.
What does a player who relies on explosive skating look like at 33 - 36 years old, earning 12.6 million a year? He is going to need to learn how to defend and play sound when his legs start to falter, and that has never been a strength of his.

This is the model that people want Toronto to emulate.


Players do not get paid for team accomplishments. In fact, there are always a bunch of players shipped off immediately after winning a cup.
I know that most Leaf fans are too young to remember the Sundin to Matthews drought years, but do they remember what happened to key pieces of Chicago and LA after they traded cup wins?
They weren't rewarded for winning, they were sent packing to shed contracts against the cap.


Players are paid for what the teams project them to perform. The teams take the players' immediate past and then try to figure out what he will be like for the duration of the contract they wish to offer.

Matthews was underpaid for his past 5 seasons. McDavid has been underpaid. Draisaitl has been underpaid by a lot.

That should have literally 0 (zero) bearing on their contracts going forward and any notion that it does is just naivete materialized.

Why is winning the Hart the only standard? Is Taylor Hall suddenly a comparable? Or is there more to determining peers than simply counting trophies

If you don't think Mackinnon is a valid comparable that's an issue I can't help you with. He may not have an MVP but he has multiple runner-ups, top 5 point finishes and Lindsay finalists. The last 3 years he's outscored Matthews despite playing 15 fewer games than him. At the very worst, these 2 are on the same level of player.

Pastrnak is another player you can use as a measuring stick. He just put up an MVP-type season with 61 goals and 113 points and signed mid-season for 11.25 x 8. Now you might say that Matthews has more of a resume and is a better overall talent, which I would agree with which means his AAV should be higher. But the gap between them isn't oceans large like Matthews camp is suggesting with their contract numbers

The reality is Matthews looks like he's about to bend us over yet again, people can delude themselves into thinking this is normal when it very clearly is not. The rising cap means nothing to me either, Matthews and his agent aren't some geniuses who are the only ones in the NHLPA who know about it. Mackinnon + his agent more than likely knew that only year 1 of 8 of his contract would be in a flat cap environment. They signed anyways. Pastrnak and his agent more than likely knew that only year 1 of 8 of his contract would be in a flat cap environment. He too signed at a reasonable AAV anyways.

There's no excuses for this guy, he wants his money (which is his right) but he's also destroying the program by doing so which is evident with the Nylander negotiations

 

[ORRFForever]

Hypothetical Lower Bound
14 x 7 = 98M approx with someone else
12.25 x 8 = 98M approx with the leafs


If the hypothetical upper bound is say 15M then
15X7 = 105M with someone else
13.1x8 = 105M with the leafs

I doubt anybody is going to pay Matthews anything over 15M in the UFA market

So matthews' cap hit on a long term deal should be between

lower bound: 98M and upper bouond 105M

i.e. 12.25AAV to 13.1 AAV for 8 years with the leafs
OR
14AAV to 15AAV on a 7 year deal with other NHL teams

If Matthews is looking for anything more than 13.1 AAV he is free to seek it from the UFA market. I wonder how many teams can front load the contract and pay 80 to 90 percent of the lumpsum in signing bonuses.

EDIT: Some additional notes:

- Given Matthews' injury history I would assume that it would be in his self interest to sign a guaranteed long term deal now instead of risking his future earnings.

so if 15AAV is the max Matthews can get from the UFA market on the long term deal for a total 105M; for Leafs it is 13.1M on 8 years for a grand total of approx 105M

PLUS Matthews right now earns on average 3M to 4M per year from his off-ice earnings mostly because he is a Leaf. Which IMO will jump to anywhere between 5 to 6 million per year in future on average.

Is he willing to forgo that extra money too by not being a Leaf; besides the front loaded signing bonuses? If he is for wanting a 14 AAV+ on the 8 yr deal from the Leafs then thanks but no thanks Auston, seek that AAV from the UFA Market there buddy!

We (i.e. Leafs) can play that game too son

Imagine if we'd let him go, years ago, for all those draft picks people were talking about. We might have made it past the first round twice.

Can you name the last Hart trophy winner who signed a new deal within the last year?

All this imbecilic talk about peers and their respective contracts.

McDavid signed his contract 6 years ago? Draisaitl did as well.
Mackinnon hasn't won a single thing for himself - his team won a cup, a team that was led by a defenseman outscoring the centre that is being put on a pedestal.
He, despite never winning any serious hardware (Calder doesn't really count) just became the highest paid player in the league. A contract that will take him into his mid to late 30's.
A player whose first 3 seasons were abysmal for a 1st overall player.
What does a player who relies on explosive skating look like at 33 - 36 years old, earning 12.6 million a year? He is going to need to learn how to defend and play sound when his legs start to falter, and that has never been a strength of his.

This is the model that people want Toronto to emulate.


Players do not get paid for team accomplishments. In fact, there are always a bunch of players shipped off immediately after winning a cup.
I know that most Leaf fans are too young to remember the Sundin to Matthews drought years, but do they remember what happened to key pieces of Chicago and LA after they traded cup wins?
They weren't rewarded for winning, they were sent packing to shed contracts against the cap.


Players are paid for what the teams project them to perform. The teams take the players' immediate past and then try to figure out what he will be like for the duration of the contract they wish to offer.

Matthews was underpaid for his past 5 seasons. McDavid has been underpaid. Draisaitl has been underpaid by a lot.

That should have literally 0 (zero) bearing on their contracts going forward and any notion that it does is just naivete materialized.

I agree with others. If you don't see MacKinnon as a comparable...

 

[MCR74]

Why is winning the Hart the only standard? Is Taylor Hall suddenly a comparable? Or is there more to determining peers than simply counting trophies

If you don't think Mackinnon is a valid comparable that's an issue I can't help you with. He may not have an MVP but he has multiple runner-ups, top 5 point finishes and Lindsay finalists. The last 3 years he's outscored Matthews despite playing 15 fewer games than him. At the very worst, these 2 are on the same level of player.

Pastrnak is another player you can use as a measuring stick. He just put up an MVP-type season with 61 goals and 113 points and signed mid-season for 11.25 x 8. Now you might say that Matthews has more of a resume and is a better overall talent, which I would agree with which means his AAV should be higher. But the gap between them isn't oceans large like Matthews camp is suggesting with their contract numbers

The reality is Matthews looks like he's about to bend us over yet again, people can delude themselves into thinking this is normal when it very clearly is not. The rising cap means nothing to me either, Matthews and his agent aren't some geniuses who are the only ones in the NHLPA who know about it. Mackinnon + his agent more than likely knew that only year 1 of 8 of his contract would be in a flat cap environment. They signed anyways. Pastrnak and his agent more than likely knew that only year 1 of 8 of his contract would be in a flat cap environment. He too signed at a reasonable AAV anyways.

There's no excuses for this guy, he wants his money (which is his right) but he's also destroying the program by doing so which is evident with the Nylander negotiations

I'd trade Matthews' Hart Trophy for showing up in the second round when we needed him...

 

[Azail]

Hypothetical Lower Bound
14 x 7 = 98M approx with someone else
12.25 x 8 = 98M approx with the leafs


If the hypothetical upper bound is say 15M then
15X7 = 105M with someone else
13.1x8 = 105M with the leafs

I doubt anybody is going to pay Matthews anything over 15M in the UFA market

So matthews' cap hit on a long term deal should be between

lower bound: 98M and upper bouond 105M

i.e. 12.25AAV to 13.1 AAV for 8 years with the leafs
OR
14AAV to 15AAV on a 7 year deal with other NHL teams

If Matthews is looking for anything more than 13.1 AAV he is free to seek it from the UFA market. I wonder how many teams can front load the contract and pay 80 to 90 percent of the lumpsum in signing bonuses.

EDIT: Some additional notes:

- Given Matthews' injury history I would assume that it would be in his self interest to sign a guaranteed long term deal now instead of risking his future earnings.

so if 15AAV is the max Matthews can get from the UFA market on the long term deal for a total 105M; for Leafs it is 13.1M on 8 years for a grand total of approx 105M

PLUS Matthews right now earns on average 3M to 4M per year from his off-ice earnings mostly because he is a Leaf. Which IMO will jump to anywhere between 5 to 6 million per year in future on average.

Is he willing to forgo that extra money too by not being a Leaf; besides the front loaded signing bonuses? If he is for wanting a 14 AAV+ on the 8 yr deal from the Leafs then thanks but no thanks Auston, seek that AAV from the UFA Market there buddy!

We (i.e. Leafs) can play that game too son

That's assuming he will sign max term anywhere. I don't think this is the case. He would probably just sign elsewhere for 5 years, much like in Toronto, and then sign again after that. In which case the extra year doesn't mean anything.

 

[PromisedLand]

That's assuming he will sign max term anywhere. I don't think this is the case. He would probably just sign elsewhere for 5 years, much like in Toronto, and then sign again after that. In which case the extra year doesn't mean anything.

regardless in terms of AAV I think the lower and upper bound is set whether it is 5 yr term or 8 yr term with the Leafs.

Given Matthews' injury history, if he chooses 5 yr term he is gambling on guaranteed money on the 8 yr term.

Of course his choice

 

[Azail]

regardless in terms of AAV I think the lower and upper bound is set whether it is 5 yr term or 8 yr term with the Leafs.

Given Matthews' injury history, if he chooses 5 yr term he is gambling on guaranteed money on the 8 yr term.

Of course his choice

Yep I agree. But I think when you asked what a team would pay, I think a bottom feeder would pay him 14-15mil a year for 5 years. For reasons others stated above.

If he just wants the money, he can for sure get more elsewhere. There isn't really any convincing if he just wants the most money he can get

 

[PromisedLand]

Yep I agree. But I think when you asked what a team would pay, I think a bottom feeder would pay him 14-15mil a year for 5 years. For reasons others stated above.

If he just wants the money, he can for sure get more elsewhere. There isn't really any convincing if he just wants the most money he can get

well if thats the case then so be it I guess; we try to workout a trade with Matthews.

even at 5 years for 15M per year that is 75 million dollars in total it is still less than the scenarios I stated above.

If matthews sustains serious injury OR has a year like he had this season; his bargaining power would not be as high after 5 years are up. I also don't think there are many teams that can buyout proof Matthews' contract by paying 80 to 90 percent in signing bonuses in case of injury or significant decline in on ice play.

 

[ToneDog]

If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at the people he gave it too.

There is nothing in the world more dehumanizing than money.

I can't believe it's July 4th and Matthews still hasn't been extended. How hard is it to say "just tell us how much, for how long, and we'll make sure to structure it as player friendly as possible". It's a simple matter on Matthews part to write down a one with a whole bunch of zeroes after it.

This should have been the easiest contract to negotiate in team history.

The situation is entirely one of their own creation. It never should have even reached this point. This organization is the dumbest in all of sports.

Everything they do is just face-palmingly stupid.

Oh well, too late now I guess. We'll find out soon enough where Matthews loyalty lays. Does he want to stay with the team that drafted him first overall to help them try win a cup?

Or is he just another flash-in-the-pan showboating hotdogger come to get rich quick and leave town as soon as possible thereafter?

As discussed on Kyper show, it is possible they have a deal worked out with Matty but won't announce it until Willie signs or they can't wait any longer.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

People are being awfully hard on Matthews, a person who has literally not even once made his salary demands public. Most of what I read here is hearsay, conjecture, or just plain made up. If he signs a deal with the Maple Leafs it's because both sides think it's a fair deal. This includes Brad Treliving, who represents the organization. If Brad Treliving does not think that he can move the Leafs successfully forward with the cap hit that is being asked for, Matthews will be moved. The risk then, is that you could be decades before the Leafs ever have another player of Matthews' calibre. You can say he hasn't won cups, which is true. You can also say that for Tkachuk (finals don't count), Pastrnak, McDavid, Draisaitl. All of those are amazing players - no cups. The fact of the matter is that the Leafs probably have never had a player who is as good as Matthews - ever. If Matthews played in a 6 team league, he probably would have 3 cups by now. The fact is that in a 32 team league it is really, really difficult to win a Stanley Cup. All you can ask for is to assemble a group of players who can consistently help you knock on the door. Matthews is part of that equation. He will be signed.

 

[Azail]

well if thats the case then so be it I guess; we try to workout a trade with Matthews.

even at 5 years for 15M per year that is 75 million dollars in total it is still less than the scenarios I stated above.

If matthews sustains serious injury OR has a year like he had this season; his bargaining power would not be as high after 5 years are up. I also don't think there are many teams that can buyout proof Matthews' contract by paying 80 to 90 percent in signing bonuses in case of injury or significant decline in on ice play.

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying. From all reports it doesn't sound like it's going to be a max contract. So the Leafs offering more over 8 years vs 7 just doesn't carry any weight.

If it was me, I would probably lock in 8 years for 100+ mil vs gamble for like 15 mil over my career based on an increase in cap and reupping. But hey, I'm not a high end NHL player lol.

 

[DarkKnight]

Imagine arguing winning a cup isn’t part of the equation when determining salary comparables. Talk about losing the plot.

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying. From all reports it doesn't sound like it's going to be a max contract. So the Leafs offering more over 8 years vs 7 just doesn't carry any weight.

If it was me, I would probably lock in 8 years for 100+ mil vs gamble for like 15 mil over my career based on an increase in cap and reupping. But hey, I'm not a high end NHL player lol.

I mean short term deal is a risk that Matthews is taking. If I was him, given the injury history, and then the season Matthews just had, I wouldn't risk a short term deal.

I'd go for guaranteed money with 8 yr contract.

But of course up to Auston if he is willing to risk it, then his choice I suppose

 

[ToneDog]

Imagine arguing winning a cup isn’t part of the equation when determining salary comparables. Talk about losing the plot.

Yeah Aiden Hill got $4.9mx2 because he was so good in his 27 regular season games. Sammy should get at least twice that amount given he had a better regular season.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

Imagine arguing winning a cup isn’t part of the equation when determining salary comparables. Talk about losing the plot.

It's not hard to imagine. A smart GM does not pay for cups won. No team can afford to pay their players based on cups won. If they do, then any team who wins will immediately become less competitive because they will have to overpay their players because they won cups. Players may point to cups when negotiating their contracts, but GMs cannot afford to pay players on past performance. You pay for future performance.

 

[DarkKnight]

It's not hard to imagine. A smart GM does not pay for cups won. No team can afford to pay their players based on cups won. If they do, then any team who wins will immediately become less competitive because they will have to overpay their players because they won cups. Players may point to cups when negotiating their contracts, but GMs cannot afford to pay players on past performance. You pay for future performance.

What? That’s why it’s hard to keep good teams together, success equals dollars. And you do pay for past performance. Nothing you said makes any sense whatsoever. Tell Bill his 40 last year don’t count.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Hypothetically suppose Leafs let Matthews walk as UFA - push comes to shove (yes I know its not ideal)

What do people expect Matthews would get on a max 7 year deal from any other team(s)?

14+

That's what happens when superstars test the market on their first ufa contract. It's VERY rare to happen. The vast VAST majority of star players sign with their team at a cap hit that can better help them win.

MacKinnon could have gotten 14+ as well. Kucherov and Point 13ish. McDavid could get league maximum on his next contract if he tested the ufa market. He wont' do that though.

There's something very rotten about our core players. They care about ego contracts (that don't affect their lifestyle one iota) far more than being slightly less rich with a more competitive team. There's just something seriously wrong with them.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

What? That’s why it’s hard to keep good teams together, success equals dollars. And you do pay for past performance. Nothing you said makes any sense whatsoever. Tell Bill his 40 last year don’t count.

Of course WN's 40 goals matter in the sense that they give an indication of what he may produce in the future. I still think that in a salary cap league you cannot afford to get into a habit of paying players based on past playoff success. I think the playoffs are too much of a crapshoot. I think that paying a premium for a player just because they got hot during the playoffs is a mistake. Going after such players is like trying to grasp the wind. In a league where a team can get 92 points, squeak into the playoffs and almost win the entire thing, it just proves it. It's all about getting hot at the right time. If I'm GM, I'm picking players who have the raw talent to consistently get you to that playoff picture, where anything can happen. I'm picking players who have the potential who, if and when they get hot, they can set the world on fire. I'm not going to give top dollar to guys like Jonathan Marchessault and Carter Verhaege just because they got hot in a playoffs. It makes no long term sense.

 

[Boxscore]

People are being awfully hard on Matthews, a person who has literally not even once made his salary demands public.

He shall be judged by his actions.

He was overpaid in his last deal and only settled for short-term 5 years.

His PPG in playoffs is 0.88 and he scores at a 36 goal pace in the post season.

Here we are again (and all speculation points to) another short-term 5 year deal north of 13.5 million per.

It doesn't matter what's public or not before it happens. If Matthews loved the Leafs and wanted to take less so we can build a better, deeper team, he'd already have agreed to sign long-term for 8 x 12.6 (tied for highest paid in NHL history).

Too many people are giving Matthews some odd benefit of the doubt when his actions have told, and continue to tell, a completely different story. Matthews could right the ship tonight by coming out and committing to taking less, long-term, leaving a nice chunk of money on the table so we can resign Nylander and still add. But has he? Of course not. He's riding this out to see if Nylander is dealt so he knows exactly how much is left over that he can add to his salary.

Matthews is no longer a rookie, he's been in the league a long time. If you don't know what he's all about when it comes to his contracts by now, I don't think you've been paying attention.

 

[Sypher04]

It doesn't matter what's public or not before it happens. If Matthews loved the Leafs and wanted to take less so we can build a better, deeper team, he'd already have agreed to sign long-term for 8 x 12.6 (tied for highest paid in NHL history).

That’s a bullshit take with no basis in reality. He’s been able to extend for 3 days and contracts are wildly complex. Him not being extended yet means absolutely nothing

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

He shall be judged by his actions.

Overpaid in last deal and only settled for short-term 5 years.

His PPG in playoffs is 0.88 and he scores at a 36 goal pace in the post season.

Here we are again (and all speculation points to) another short-term 5 year deal for north of 13.5 million.

It doesn't matter what's public or not before it happens. If Matthews loved the Leafs and wanted to take less so we can build a better, deeper team, he'd already have agreed to sign long-term for 8 x 12.6 (tied for highest paid in NHL history).

Too many people are giving Matthews some odd benefit of the doubt when his actions have told, ad continue to tell) a completely different story. Matthews could right the ship tonight by coming out and committing to taking less, long-term. Leaving a nice chunk of money on the table so we can resign Nylander and still add. But has he? Of course not. He's riding this out to see if Nylander is dealt so he knows exactly how much is left over that he can add to his salary.

Matthews did not put a gun to the head of the GM to sign the last Deal. The Leafs offered him that contract and he accepted it. What did you expect him to say..."sorry, that's a touch much for me, dial it back to $10M?" The fact is that the team had all the leverage for all the 3 young forward stars and they failed to use that to the team's advantage. Blame Dubas/Leafs. Don't blame Matthews.

Most of the rest of your post is pure conjecture.