News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

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NASHVILLE — Let’s start with Auston Matthews.

First, if you still had any doubt, even after the public declarations: Matthews wants to stay in Toronto. He wants to win in Toronto. He wants to be a Maple Leaf.

That’s a significant positive for the team.


The complication is Matthews is not willing to go along with the status quo for players of his ilk – think Nathan MacKinnon – when it comes to his next contract. We’re told he wants to be compensated as one of the best players in the league, a 25-year-old with a Hart Trophy, two Rocket Richard trophies, and multiple All-Star Game appearances.

The rapidly rising cap environment is the key part of that complication.

The salary cap might be the most important thing to remember about where this is going. The belief is that Matthews and his agent, Judd Moldaver, want his third NHL contract to account for a cap that should hit $87.5 million in the fall of 2024, when the new deal kicks in, and is expected to only go up from there, as much as five percent annually.

Which means a cap hit figure that will shrink over the life of the contract.

That is why it’s likely they will be looking at a contract ranging between two and five years long. The sweet spot, for both Matthews and the Leafs, may be a five-year deal with a record-setting cap hit, higher than MacKinnon’s $12.6 million annual average value.


A five-year deal would buy up the entirety of Matthews’ prime, his age-27, 28, 29, 30, and 31 seasons. It could also shatter the previous precedent for these types of contracts. The Leafs could be looking at a number as high as $14.5 million on the cap on a five-year deal.

Which obviously seems high.

...........

The belief is also that Matthews might consider a seven or even eight-year deal, but only if the deal came with a cap hit that accounted for where the cap is going, not where it is today.

An eight-year deal, for instance, might come with a $16 million cap hit, given how high the cap is projected to rise.

Which, again, seems like a lot.

But by the end of the deal, the cap might be well over $120 million, making for a cap hit percentage of about 13 percent in the final season.

Now obviously a $16 million cap hit in next year’s cap climate would make things difficult for Toronto, which is why bringing the term down for a lower cap hit makes sense for both sides. A lower cap hit will help the Leafs fill out the team around Matthews.

...........

The Leafs haven’t gotten too far along in contract talks just yet. And don’t be surprised if nothing is done on July 1. Matthews’ new deal should get done before the start of next season though and may begin to alter the landscape and shift the thinking for top players in the sport.
 

"The Leafs could be looking at a number as high as $14.5 million on the cap on a five-year deal.
An eight-year deal, for instance, might come with a $16 million cap hit, given how high the cap is projected to rise."
You know an article is bad when the writer doesn't even know how term impacts UFA contracts.
 
You know an article is bad when the writer doesn't even know how term impacts UFA contracts.
the Athletic is drivel

And yet he’ll be expected to write on it anyway, for the clicks, so as a result this is the drivel we get
didn't even read your comment, used the exact same term, chalk that up as a super accurate depiction of the quality of writing over there
 
Kinda wish an adult had stepped into the room in negotiations and just said, “the cap hasn’t risen to whatever yet so this is the best you’re going to get. Tough shit you didn’t sign longer last time and the deal doesn’t expire at a later time.”

Can’t have everything every time and then future proof it so you’re still overpaid in a new economic landscape, should a new economic landscape actually appear.

Just get it done.

Also want to point out to insiders like Jonas Siegel that the big ask, big number speculation is a quite destructive to fan engagement when they have nothing else to write about.
 
If Matthews signs for 14.5 over 5 years and Willy over 10 that might just be the point I fully check out lol
If he signs for $14.5M, he should be ashamed. That is NOT leaving anything on the table.

And if the Leafs sign him for $14.5M, THEY should be ashamed - they need to be stronger than that.

8.8 seems like the obvious number for Nylander doesn't it?
Not to him.
 
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If he signs for $14.5M, he should be ashamed. That is NOT leaving anything on the table.

The team should be ashamed too.

The cap rising isn't a good argument when the entire proposed 5 year Matthews contract fits within the 8 year contracts JUST signed by MacKinnon, Tkachuk, and Pastrnak. Cap goes up for those guys too, and we've had the same projections since last year.

If Matthews signs for 14.5 over 5 years and Willy over 10 that might just be the point I fully check out lol
Checked out is a good way of putting it. I can't become a fan of another team, but I really wouldn't want to follow this one, so I'd just withdraw my interest and use my energy elsewhere.
 
The media and fans absolutely must stop with "the market says Matthews should be paid..." and "If the Leafs and Nylander are only $1 million apart..." narratives.

Comparing our players to other star players and situations needs to be done through a different prism. Unlike most teams with 1 or maybe 2 superstar players, the Leafs have been gifted a golden situation, and have multiple core pieces.

A team in a crappy market, or starved for talent, will need to overpay to lure (or keep) a superstar but the Leafs cannot continue operating like those teams as we did under that clown Dubas, who was spending money like he was with his boys at the bar on vacation.

If these players want to be part of this opportunity, they need to rethink their priorities when it comes to their contracts. The local media and fans also need to adjust their thinking. Even before a hard cap, you didn't hear the Detroit media clamoring for Yzerman, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Shanahan, and Coffey to make more money. It's wasn't even an issue. Detroit had an internal structure and these players were willing to do what it took to be a part of it and reap the benefits.

The same could be said about the entire Tampa Bay Lightning core who all took less on their deals so they could stay together and win Cups.

We're the only market where the media and fans openly endorse giving their players blank checks (and paying them anything they want) just because we like them. That's not how you win in a hard cap world and we've proven that over the last seven years.

These four megastars just signed these deals last year:

- David Pastrnak: 11.25 x 8
- Matthew Tkachuk: 9.5 x 8
- Jack Hughes: 8.5 x 8
- Tim Stutzle: 8.35 x 8

Meanwhile, this is our current core on their old deals (and looking for more!):

- Auston Matthews: 11.65 x 5 (soon to be 13+ x 5)
- John Tavares: 11 x 8
- Mitch Marner: 10.9 x 6 (soon to be 12 x ?)
- William Nylander 6.9 x 6 (soon to be 9.5 x ?)

Compare our core 4 players to those 4 players (all making less money) and tell me with a straight face, which group of 4 players you'd rather have.

Notice how all those other superstars all committed to their clubs long-term, and how much less they are willing to take than our players even though their deals are brand new and are max term.
 
The media and fans absolutely must stop with "the market says Matthews should be paid..." and "If the Leafs and Nylander are only $1 million apart..." narratives.

Comparing our players to other star players and situations needs to be done through a different prism. Unlike most teams with 1 or maybe 2 superstar players, the Leafs have been gifted a golden situation, and have multiple core pieces.

A team in a crappy market, or starved for talent, will need to overpay to lure (or keep) a superstar but the Leafs cannot continue operating like those teams as we did under that clown Dubas, who was spending money like he was with his boys at the bar on vacation.

If these players want to be part of this opportunity, they need to rethink their priorities when it comes to their contracts. The local media and fans also need to adjust their thinking. Even before a hard cap, you didn't hear the Detroit media clamoring for Yzerman, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Shanahan, and Coffey to make more money. It's wasn't even an issue. Detroit had an internal structure and these players were willing to do what it took to be a part of it and reap the benefits.

The same could be said about the entire Tampa Bay Lightning core who all took less on their deals so they could stay together and win Cups.

We're the only market where the media and fans openly endorse giving their players blank checks (and paying them anything they want) just because we like them. That's not how you win in a hard cap world and we've proven that over the last seven years.

These four megastars just signed these deals last year:

- David Pastrnak: 11.25 x 8
- Matthew Tkachuk: 9.5 x 8
- Jack Hughes: 8.5 x 8
- Tim Stutzle: 8.35 x 8

Meanwhile, this is our current core on their old deals (and looking for more!):

- Auston Matthews: 11.65 x 5 (soon to be 13+ x 5)
- John Tavares: 11 x 8
- Mitch Marner: 10.9 x 6 (soon to be 12 x ?)
- William Nylander 6.9 x 6 (soon to be 9.5 x ?)

Compare our core 4 players to those 4 players (all making less money) and tell me with a straight face, which group of 4 players you'd rather have.

Notice how all those other superstars all committed to their clubs long-term, and how much less they are willing to take than our players even though their deals are brand new and are max term.
Well said.

Re : "We're the only market where the media and fans openly endorse giving their players blank checks (and paying them anything they want) just because we like them."

Bob McCown used to say that. He said Toronto fans fall in love with Leaf players and they can do no wrong.
 
Notice how all those other superstars all committed to their clubs long-term, and how much less they are willing to take than our players even though their deals are brand new and are max term.
No, but I noticed that you picked out players that either hadn't broken out yet when they signed, or had only recently broke out and didn't have the representative sample to make them worth anything close to the likes of Matthews. Also FYI, Hughes signed 2 years ago, not last year.
 
Well said.

Re : "We're the only market where the media and fans openly endorse giving their players blank checks (and paying them anything they want) just because we like them."

Bob McCown used to say that. He said Toronto fans fall in love with Leaf players and they can do no wrong.
McCown is/was right. Case in point is Auston Matthews -- after seven seasons in the NHL this kid has won ONE round in the playoffs -- freaking ONE! And every conversation centered around him is "how much money will he want to stay here for another 5 years", not "when is Matthews going to win in the playoffs." Something is rotten to the core in Toronto and the media and fans are a big part of the spoiled, country club mentality that has overtaken the organization.
 
No, but I noticed that you picked out players that either hadn't broken out yet when they signed, or had only recently broke out and didn't have the representative sample to make them worth anything close to the likes of Matthews. Also FYI, Hughes signed 2 years ago, not last year.
What in the world are you talking about? Pasta has been elite for years and just signed. Tkachuk signed right after scoring 40 goals and 100+ points. Hughes was the 1st overall pick and showed the hockey world how elite he is and would be. Stutzle was also a high pick and is the best, young player on a rising team. All of these players could have demanded and/or held out for more like Nylander and Marner did.

And, let's not forget our overpaid buddy JT, who supposedly gave the Leafs a "hometown discount" for 11 when Nikita Kucherov wins the Hart and scores 126 points the following year and commits to the Lightning for 9.5 per!!

You can keep making all the excuses you like but Tavares, Matthews, and Marner have all been overpaid. Nylander wasn't and now he's coming to collect after seeing what Matthews and Marner got. But when does it end?
 
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McCown is/was right. Case in point is Auston Matthews -- after seven seasons in the NHL this kid has won ONE round in the playoffs -- freaking ONE! And every conversation centered around him is "how much money will he want to stay here for another 5 years", not "when is Matthews going to win in the playoffs." Something is rotten to the core in Toronto and the media and fans are a big part of the spoiled, country club mentality that has overtaken the organization.
You're preaching to the converted, my friend.

Matthew has done little to warrant a raise. The Leafs should have played hard ball and said, "If you don't want to play in Toronto, with all the perks that come along with it, someone else of your caliber will", and been willing to trade him.

Instead, the Leafs have been running scared.
 
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If Matthews signs for 14.5 over 5 years and Willy over 10 that might just be the point I fully check out lol
Auston calls Willy,

Heh man,cap supposed to go up 4 - 6 mil the next couple of years.
I'll take 3.5 and you can have 2.5.

What about Mitch?
Cap will go up at least 3 when he is due so he can have that.

What about the rest of the team?
hahahaha,good one Willy,good one.
 
Auston calls Willy,

Heh man,cap supposed to go up 4 - 6 mil the next couple of years.
I'll take 3.5 and you can have 2.5.

What about Mitch?
Cap will go up at least 3 when he is due so he can have that.

What about the rest of the team?
hahahaha,good one Willy,good one.
There is no I in team.
But there is a ME.
 
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I think I've figured out why this is so difficult for you ,and others of like mind, to wrap your head around the contract situation.


Unlike most teams with 1 or maybe 2 superstar players, the Leafs have been gifted a golden situation, and have multiple core pieces.

If these players want to be part of this opportunity, they need to rethink their priorities when it comes to their contracts. The local media and fans also need to adjust their thinking. Even before a hard cap, you didn't hear the Detroit media clamoring for Yzerman, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Shanahan, and Coffey to make more money. It's wasn't even an issue. Detroit had an internal structure and these players were willing to do what it took to be a part of it and reap the benefits.




Notice how all those other superstars all committed to their clubs long-term, and how much less they are willing to take than our players even though their deals are brand new and are max term.


You fall into the trap of emotions encroaching into otherwise rational decisions.

It's natural to be that way when so emotionally invested in a situation.
However, in order to think about the big picture, you really need to divest yourself from the emotions and think rationally instead.

Genuine question: why do you believe a person would have a strong emotional tie to a Toronto based franchise?

Genuine question: Why do you believe Matthews, and Nylander have strong enough emotional connections to the Maple Leafs to give up tens of millions of dollars?

I'm not being flippant, I honestly am curious as to why fans here have this notion that players have to be in love with this team and almost have some sort of childhood fantasy of playing and winning here as opposed to anywhere else.

Marner and Tavares definitely have a good reason to want to play and win here. That reason may be strong enough to convince them to give up $10+ million dollars, but what exactly does Toronto offer Matthews that any other city doesn't?

If you were offered 20-30% more salary per year to work for a rival company, doing the exact same job with the same perks and same responsibilities, why do you believe you would stay put?

How much is your loyalty to your employer worth to you on an annual income basis?

For players who have no underlying emotional connections to Toronto, the Leafs are just another employer. Sure they might grow fond of the team and city, but ultimately it is just a job.

Once you start approaching these situations in this manner, you become (not apathetic, but) understanding.

We have a strong emotional investment in the team and want these players to win, here! We don't care about how much money they make.

The players want to win, and they want to make as much money as they can. They don't really care where those occur.

If you think the threat of "let him go somewhere else" is in any way frightening to a professional athlete at the top of the food chain, you're pitifully wrong.



As for Detroit.

Yeah, the Red Wings had the highest salary of any team in the NHL for years. Higher than Toronto.
That's a bad example to use.
 
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