News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[4thline]

Since you referenced me several times in your post, I'll say I support your opinion and stance on this position,

I also see Matthews as the teams franchise building block #1C and future captain.

I like what I'm hearing about out new GM trying to get Auston to lock-in long-term ,and willing to accept he is going to be the highest priced player in the NHL once its signed. Now you accept that and move on even though you know you're overpaying market to do so, He is a unique player and its better to keep then lose.

I think you can fix the Leafs overspending just as you say, trade a winger. For me it would be Marner as he is already overpriced and his next deal only going to be worse still. If you can turn him into a top pairing Dman you make that move. Instead of paying Marner $12 mil on his next deal I'd prefer a $6 mil C and $6 mil top 4 Dman instead.

Nylander coming off his deal allows for a raise to put him in market value range of $8.5 - $9 mil per for a 40 goal scorer and winger for Matthews on the top line.

In 2 years you walk away from the JT contract when it expires, or bring him back only as vet on a significantly reduced deal.

With Auston making ~ $13.5 etc and could be the only double digit player on the team in 2 years time down from 3 now, and you would increase your Cup competitiveness by being able to surround your core with strong depth. Core 4 of Matthews, Nylander, Rielly & another top pairing Dman.

Hold on, gonna go check for flying pigs

 

[Leafsfan74]

Two options that must be made within 6 days:

Resign Matthews and Trade Marner.

Trade Matthews.

If one of these options is not chosen I won't waste my time watching the team this year. Cobbling together rentals while the Country Club continues will assure failure. I saw the same atmosphere with the Muskoka Five, saw it with Kessel et al, seeing it with the Core Four +1.

If the franchise can't find it's courage it will remain synonymous with failure.

 

[KaN19]

People will be surprised at the term and AAV just like they were last time around. 13 x 8 is a pipe dream.

I fully expect 14m x 4 years to be announced the first week of July. Once you get bent over on negotiations with RFAs, don't expect the same players to take any discounts once they becomes UFAs. The culture has already been set.

 

[Racer88]

Because he was a worse player than Marner. Through their ELCs, Marner produced better at 5v5 (2.39 > 1.87 overall, 1.91 > 1.31 primary) and on the PP (7.19 > 5.78 overall, 4.69 > 4.15 primary), despite being jerked around by Babcock instead of given prime offensive opportunities on a line more driven by Mackinnon. Marner was also better defensively, and brought additional PK impacts that Rantanen did not.

Both Matthews and Marner are PPG or higher (with positive goal differentials) in the playoffs on their current contracts, through some of the toughest situations to produce (and injuries,, and despite the 3rd wheel on their line consistently either playing injured or doing a whole lot of nothing), while having dominant control of play/underlying metrics, and providing top tier defense, shutting down the opposition's best players.

Nobody is dominant in production in every series, and they didn't go quietly into the night. They battled hard and threw everything at Bobrovsky.
And regardless of how you choose to perceive what has happened so far, fact remains that they are our best bets at dominant playoff performances from that cap space.

Still we lose, yet again while other teams move on and one of them wins the cup. The one thing those other teams have in common is none of them have 3 -11 million dollar forwards and when you add in Willy 50% of your cap spent on 4 forwards and not a single one of the 4 is a warrior

 

[Dekes For Days]

Do salaries for post ELC contracts say in the last 10 years go from highest to lowest paralleling thos specific numbers?
Say for wingers
As in marners numbers being the best = highest contract?

There are obviously additional factors that impact cap hit percentages beyond just straight production numbers, regardless of what form you're looking at (age, opportunity, defensive play, additional game state impacts, the contract's term, etc.), but contracts correlate very well, and it's pretty easy to understand why most contracts are what they are.

The only winger in the cap era with a case for a better pre-signing period is Ovechkin, and he got more. Marner got what would probably be considered the 6th highest value post-ELC winger contract in the cap era, term considered.

Still we lose, yet again while other teams move on and one of them wins the cup. The one thing those other teams have in common is none of them have 3 -11 million dollar forwards and when you add in Willy 50% of your cap spent on 4 forwards and not a single one of the 4 is a warrior

Yes, we lost, like 31 other teams, and that sucks, but you're not going to win by getting worse players, and focusing on the wrong areas.
Teams (including winning teams) configure their cap in all sorts of different ways. You've just arbitrarily decided that ours is wrong, but there's no actual reason for that to be true. Getting value out of your configuration is what matters, not how it's configured.
Every one of them is a warrior, and it's disappointing that some fans choose to throw attacks on their drive and character because they're angry at the team outcome.

 

[Racer88]

There are obviously additional factors that impact cap hit percentages beyond just straight production numbers, regardless of what form you're looking at (age, opportunity, defensive play, additional game state impacts, the contract's term, etc.), but contracts correlate very well, and it's pretty easy to understand why most contracts are what they are.

The only winger in the cap era with a case for a better pre-signing period is Ovechkin, and he got more. Marner got what would probably be considered the 6th highest value post-ELC winger contract in the cap era, term considered.

Yes, we lost, like 31 other teams, and that sucks, but you're not going to win by getting worse players, and focusing on the wrong areas.
Teams (including winning teams) configure their cap in all sorts of different ways. You've just arbitrarily decided that ours is wrong, but there's no actual reason for that to be true. Getting value out of your configuration is what matters, not how it's configured.
Every one of them is a warrior, and it's disappointing that some fans choose to throw attacks on their drive and character because they're angry at the team outcome.

They are the team……they are responsible for all the failures. I single round win in 7 years since the team got back to being a regular playoff team. That is indefensible……..this cap configuration is simple a failure…..why? is it because it simply doesn’t work, doesn’t work with these guys or Dubas failed to put all the pieces together with the 59% remaining cap he has to fill 18 or more spots. I guess we will find out because it’s looks like we are going to run the same crap again

 

[Stephen]

Still we lose, yet again while other teams move on and one of them wins the cup. The one thing those other teams have in common is none of them have 3 -11 million dollar forwards and when you add in Willy 50% of your cap spent on 4 forwards and not a single one of the 4 is a warrior

I actually don't even know if you can draw the conclusion that you can't pay 3x guys $11 million + Nylander and win. For example, Matthews, Draisaitl, Makar and Nylander looks pretty compelling if Matthews ever woke up. It's all in the specifics. Tavares is not worth it. You're leaving at least $3.5 million in value on the table when you overpay him. And Marner? He'll get you to the playoffs in comfort but I'm not sure what kind of Big Brother you need to put Marner out there to be brave once you're in it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They are the team……they are responsible for all the failures. I single round win in 7 years since the team got back to being a regular playoff team. That is indefensible……..this cap configuration is simple a failure…..why? is it because it simply doesn’t work, doesn’t work with these guys or Dubas failed to put all the pieces together with the 59% remaining cap he has to fill 18 or more spots. I guess we will find out because it’s looks like we are going to run the same crap again

They are not the team. They are part of the team, and usually the ones doing more than their share. Just because the team hasn't won yet, that doesn't mean a cap configuration like that can't work. That is such a massive logical leap, especially when looking at the reasons we've actually lost.

 

[PromisedLand]

Matthews definitely appears to be very greedy. But getting rid of him is a last resort if he's not willing to be reasonable with cap hit or term. But you simply cannot build a winner if one player on your team is going to command 13.5 - 14 mil a year. It's impossible. Matthews knows this. The Leafs know this. If they proceed anyway it's because they're both content with being regular season darlings and bailing early in the playoffs.

Precisely!

The AAV and term on the contract is going to signal a lot of things. It will tell us whether this team is going to hail mary in the hope of may be one of these seasons Matthews' luck or our goalie's luck would be what they are going for or are they actually giving the team/franchise the best shot at winning the cup while leaving enough cap to round out the roster.

If its the former I am pretty sure most of the Leafs fans are just gonna not be 100% in as they had been

 

[mikeyz]

I’m afraid Matthews promises to sign but wants to see the direction of the team and surrounding cast before he commits to term/aav. This drags out until mid season and I can’t unclench when the time comes.

He has arguably been part of the problem of the direction that this team is going in if you look at it from a playoff perspective.

 

[Gabriel426]

Precisely!

The AAV and term on the contract is going to signal a lot of things. It will tell us whether this team is going to hail mary in the hope of may be one of these seasons Matthews' luck or our goalie's luck would be what they are going for or are they actually giving the team/franchise the best shot at winning the cup while leaving enough cap to round out the roster.

If its the former I am pretty sure most of the Leafs fans are just gonna not be 100% in as they had been

1. AM’s new deal should not be more than McD and Mack
2. JT’s contract is the problem as he is an 7mil player and PP specialist at best. That’s 4mil dead cap space and could be use on a very useful mid 6 player on the roster.
3. Leafs really need guys who can play the game like Acciari and Lafferty at their price range in the bottom 6 plus guys like Knies, Holmberg to chip in offensively but most of all AM and MM better start putting up goals in the playoffs

 

[PromisedLand]

Agreed. I hear people already crowning Matthews the greatest Leaf of all-time and it's laughable. He won one playoff round, one. It's like Keon, Sittler, Apps, Clark, Kennedy, Sundin, Salming, Broda, Armstrong, etc. didn't exist. Heck, prime Dougie Gilmour from 1992-94 destroys Matthews imho, all things considered.

And it's a shame that I'm sort of ragging on him, because he's my favorite player on the team. But I can't wrap my head around a kid like him not being willing to leave some dough on the table and commit long-term to the club by now. This group is likely the best shot we'll get at winning a Cup and it's frustrating that these kids don't see it or care.

Only McDavid and Ovi make as much moolah in "off-ice" advertisements as both marner and matthews.

Averaged to about anywhere between 3 to 4 million dollars per year thats additional income they generate and make their own brand because they are Toronto Maple Leaf.

This should be part of the bargain. If Matthews signs for 12.5 and you take about 3.5 from office revenue thats about 16 million per year on average. Matthews also lives in Arizona when he gets paid his signing bonuses that means he doesn't pay ridiculous tax.

If Matthews is being greedy tell him to find another franchise where he has the potential to earn at least 16 million per year. Of course this would only go up as he gets to sign more off ice deals if he stays in Toronto.

Treliving has gotta be tough in negotiations. If he is another dubas we have lost the plot as a franchise.

 

[PromisedLand]

1. AM’s new deal should not be more than McD and Mack
2. JT’s contract is the problem as he is an 7mil player and PP specialist at best. That’s 4mil dead cap space and could be use on a very useful mid 6 player on the roster.
3. Leafs really need guys who can play the game like Acciari and Lafferty at their price range in the bottom 6 plus guys like Knies, Holmberg to chip in offensively but most of all AM and MM better start putting up goals in the playoffs

IMO Leafs have gotta trade Marner. His NMC kicks in July 1st in a few days; if they stick with Marner even when Tavares is off the cap Leafs won't get much in cap savings after increases to Matthews, Marner and Nylander.

The problem with the leafs are many IMO

- High AAV players who make lion's share of the cap cannot do much in the playoffs
- Stupid contracts like Murray on the roster while promising to play Gio an aging guy who doesn't have the legs or energy
- A complete dumbass of a coach who cannot adjust on the fly and his deployment of the player personnel is a disgrace
- The culture: Schenn and ROR's comments were enough IMO to show that although people will argue that they did not directly say that but it was clear for me at least what their comments suggested
- Shanahan: getting sick of him. Ideally all three of shanahan, dubas and keefe should have been canned. but only dubas is out.

 

[andora]

There are obviously additional factors that impact cap hit percentages beyond just straight production numbers, regardless of what form you're looking at (age, opportunity, defensive play, additional game state impacts, the contract's term, etc.), but contracts correlate very well, and it's pretty easy to understand why most contracts are what they are.

The only winger in the cap era with a case for a better pre-signing period is Ovechkin, and he got more. Marner got what would probably be considered the 6th highest value post-ELC winger contract in the cap era, term considered.

Yes, we lost, like 31 other teams, and that sucks, but you're not going to win by getting worse players, and focusing on the wrong areas.
Teams (including winning teams) configure their cap in all sorts of different ways. You've just arbitrarily decided that ours is wrong, but there's no actual reason for that to be true. Getting value out of your configuration is what matters, not how it's configured.
Every one of them is a warrior, and it's disappointing that some fans choose to throw attacks on their drive and character because they're angry at the team outcome.

what are the measurable defensive stats that would go into the contract

 

[PromisedLand]

Well Mack actually become the player he is when Avs went on a rebuild and traded ROR and Duchense away. Mack literally exploded after those trades.
To say that Mack is not a reason why Avs won is belittling him. Whenever I watch the Avs played, both Mack and Makar were just engines with the puck and it seems like they are going to make something happen.
To say that if it weren’t for Makar, Mack is not Mack or Mack doesn’t win the Cup is not an opinion that I think most hockey fans would share.
There is no shame to admit Mack is a better player than AM or MM bc Mack is arguably the 2nd best player behind McD.

Team composition is an important part of hockey which is lost on most folks defending dubas era team/cap structure.

Avs didn't screw their own roster by invest in 4 forwards with 50% of the cap. Their team composition and cap allocation was one of the best in the league when they won the cup.

Mack is clearly better than both matthews and marner there is no doubt. Having Makar did help the Avs; as Kadri kept feeding Makar and Makar kept putting it behind the net or setting up great hockey plays.

I haven't seen any decent point shots from the Leafs (exception: Liljegren when he gets to play).

Our coach is a JOKE to begin with so it becomes harder too. But hwo much of that is the coach and how much of that is the players demand is up for anyone's guess. Putting Willy on 2nd PP in the playoffs and not breaking up matthews-marner in the florida series was a coaching decision? or was it a player deamand? or comibiation of both?

Mack and Bednar has a public fued and then Mack apologized for his behaviour; in the Leafs land; the coach had to walk back his comments the next day. Also goes on to show Mack's character there and now contrast that with how marner behaved in front of the media.

Mack is not only an excellent hockey player but also brings in other intangibles. Mack goes to the board, takes hit to make plays, lays body and isn't afraid to dish out hits either.

There is more to hockey then just "putting the puck behind the net"-> no bigger example of it than Ovi when he changed the way he played under Trotz.

Matthews' contract demand is ridiculous and there is no other way to put it if you are looking to win the cup. If just making the playoffs is the only goal then mlse should just come out and say..... "if we win the cup that would be nice; but we are just going to hope for it our goal is to just rake in money with regular season and a handful of playoff appearances"

Since you referenced me several times in your post, I'll say I support your opinion and stance on this position,

I also see Matthews as the teams franchise building block #1C and future captain.

I like what I'm hearing about out new GM trying to get Auston to lock-in long-term ,and willing to accept he is going to be the highest priced player in the NHL once its signed. Now you accept that and move on even though you know you're overpaying market to do so, He is a unique player and its better to keep then lose.

I think you can fix the Leafs overspending just as you say, trade a winger. For me it would be Marner as he is already overpriced and his next deal only going to be worse still. If you can turn him into a top pairing Dman you make that move. Instead of paying Marner $12 mil on his next deal I'd prefer a $6 mil C and $6 mil top 4 Dman instead.

Nylander coming off his deal allows for a raise to put him in market value range of $8.5 - $9 mil per for a 40 goal scorer and winger for Matthews on the top line.

In 2 years you walk away from the JT contract when it expires, or bring him back only as vet on a significantly reduced deal.

With Auston making ~ $13.5 etc and could be the only double digit player on the team in 2 years time down from 3 now, and you would increase your Cup competitiveness by being able to surround your core with strong depth. Core 4 of Matthews, Nylander, Rielly & another top pairing Dman.

 

[PromisedLand]

People will be surprised at the term and AAV just like they were last time around. 13 x 8 is a pipe dream.

I fully expect 14m x 4 years to be announced the first week of July. Once you get bent over on negotiations with RFAs, don't expect the same players to take any discounts once they becomes UFAs. The culture has already been set.

But this is where a new GM doesn't have to adhere to that dumbass culture. You make a trade and move on.

If Matthews is signed to a ridiculous contract you trade Marner ASAP. July 1st is the deadline; Marner should be dealt IMO. Leafs got to eye the cup run post Tavares; meanwhile just re-tool. I really don't think Leafs should be going for cup runs until Tavares is on the cap.

 

[TMLAM34]

I don’t really care if the deal is 8 years long, but I do think it should be at least 5 years. 5 years at 12.5 million per.

 

[-DeMo-]

I don’t really care if the deal is 8 years long, but I do think it should be at least 5 years. 5 years at 12.5 million per.

I think the 5 year contract length is perfect, because if he signed for 8 much like Tavares today he wont be worth the contract in year 6-8 probably. I find it's extremely rare for big UFA contracts to age well. I'm sure there's good examples but majority are not. even Tavares today is probably one of the better long term UFA signings for a 6-7 year 7+ million dollar UFA contracts. the fact that in year 5 he put up PPG numbers is pretty good.

 

[PromisedLand]

I think the 5 year contract length is perfect, because if he signed for 8 much like Tavares today he wont be worth the contract in year 6-8 probably. I find it's extremely rare for big UFA contracts to age well. I'm sure there's good examples but majority are not. even Tavares today is probably one of the better long term UFA signings for a 6-7 year 7+ million dollar UFA contracts. the fact that in year 5 he put up PPG numbers is pretty good.

Tavares is not even in top 50 players for even strength scoring. His production is propped up by PP production.

He was ranked 91st in the league. For 11 AAV player that is absolutely terrible.

 

[PromisedLand]

Tell me how Matthews deserves more than Mack on an 8 yr term?

Even strength scoring for past season

 

[JKG33]

People will be surprised at the term and AAV just like they were last time around. 13 x 8 is a pipe dream.

I fully expect 14m x 4 years to be announced the first week of July. Once you get bent over on negotiations with RFAs, don't expect the same players to take any discounts once they becomes UFAs. The culture has already been set.

Exactly what I'm afraid of.

Trade his ass to some shithole and let him go running to the highest bidder next summer, ruining another team's salary cap instead.

 

[Gabriel426]

But this is where a new GM doesn't have to adhere to that dumbass culture. You make a trade and move on.

If Matthews is signed to a ridiculous contract you trade Marner ASAP. July 1st is the deadline; Marner should be dealt IMO. Leafs got to eye the cup run post Tavares; meanwhile just re-tool. I really don't think Leafs should be going for cup runs until Tavares is on the cap.

Maybe MM can be trade to Preds since he is apparently friends with Shania, and he and his wife can visit her over the weekend all the time. lol

 

[Sypher04]

Tell me how Matthews deserves more than Mack on an 8 yr term?

Even strength scoring for past season

View attachment 721165

Why exactly are you basing his valuation on a down year we all know was injury riddled. Feels pretty disingenuous.

Also buying MacKinnon’s 34/35 seasons doesn’t raise his price vs if he was just signed for say 5 or 6 years. All the valuable years are the ones up front.

 

[PromisedLand]

Why exactly are you basing his valuation on a down year we all know was injury riddled. Feels pretty disingenuous.

Also buying MacKinnon’s 34/35 seasons doesn’t raise his price vs if he was just signed for say 5 or 6 years. All the valuable years are the ones up front.

why do you want to pay Matthews 14 to 15 AAV is the question I have for you.

Are you 100% certain that matthews is never going to have such a down year again? You 100% certain that he is not going to get injured or his wrist injury is all but the story of the past not going to have any impact in the future?

How do you justify Matthews getting paid more than Mack?

Maybe MM can be trade to Preds since he is apparently friends with Shania, and he and his wife can visit her over the weekend all the time. lol

MM should be trade to anywhere; there is 7 years worth of evidence that Marner is never going to show up for playoffs. Marner is just about fancy bs; as soon as there is less spacce and time on the ice Marner becomes less valuable. He is already overpaid for what he brings anyway; he will be looking for the moon hell entire solar system on his next deal. Leafs shouldn't put up with this BS

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why exactly are you basing his valuation on a down year we all know was injury riddled. Feels pretty disingenuous.

Not to mention that it's an irrelevant season for Mackinnon, since it happened after signing.